Frontrunner

By Frontier AgricultureNews

Frontrunner episodes

March 25, 2022 Frontrunner - 25th March 2022
The escalating conflict following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent fears for future wheat supplies from the Black Sea led to extreme volatility in the wheat market this week, resulting in new record highs for futures markets. Wheat futures rose to their highest on record this week, with Paris futures exceeding €400/t and London futures rising above £300/t, breaking the previous record set in 2008.

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

For other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribe

Follow Frontier Agriculture on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FrontierAg

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13 min
March 18, 2022 Frontrunner - 18th March 2022
Wheat futures continued to see volatile trading this week as the trade reacted to the impact of the worsening conflict between Russia and Ukraine. There were early notable falls in prices with reports that peace talks between Russia and Ukraine were making some headway and that all five of Russia’s Black Sea ports were operating normally for grain shipments.

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

For other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribe

Follow Frontier Agriculture on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FrontierAg

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
13 min
March 11, 2022 Frontrunner - 11th March 2022
The escalating conflict following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent fears for future wheat supplies from the Black Sea led to extreme volatility in the wheat market this week, resulting in new record highs for futures markets. Wheat futures rose to their highest on record this week, with Paris futures exceeding €400/t and London futures rising above £300/t, breaking the previous record set in 2008.

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

For other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribe

Follow Frontier Agriculture on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FrontierAg

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
14 min
March 04, 2022 Frontrunner - 4th March 2022
Wheat markets have been extremely volatile this week due to the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine. London old crop wheat futures hit a high, which was more than £50/t above last week’s closing prices, and in doing so set a record high for the market. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures climbed up by over 30% to their highest figure for 14 years, although remained below the all-time highest figure of $13.49/t which was set in February 2008. Frontier farm trader, Ollie Wilson covers this and more, including the latest market news for barley, oilseed rape, pulses and fertiliser.

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

For other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribe

Follow Frontier Agriculture on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FrontierAg

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
15 min
February 25, 2022 Frontrunner - 25th February 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine this week triggered unparalleled price movements in commodity markets. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures posted gains of almost 20% on last Friday’s close and, at their peak, were at their highest level since 2008. Fear, panic and speculative trade exaggerated futures price gains but the world’s wheat importers have lost access to a primary supplier of wheat and corn as military action brought a halt to commercial shipping and Ukraine’s ports shut down. Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) held a tender to buy wheat on Thursday which highlighted the market chaos and uncertainty. There was only one offer from French exporters at a price including freight just below $450/t. Egypt has sourced most of its wheat this season from Russia and Ukraine and bought 180,000 tonnes last week from Romania at less than $340/t. Other major wheat importers tried to maintain some calm by assessing their stocks and supply chain options. Iraq has said it currently has sufficient strategic wheat supplies and Tunisia has said it has already secured the imports it needs until the 2022 harvest. Ukraine is thought to have shipped almost 18 million tonnes from its 24.5-million-tonne surplus this season, but it seems highly unlikely that the remaining balance will be accessible in the short term. Russian officials said their ports were operating normally but how sanctions might impact on the Russian wheat export programme remains unclear.
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11 min
February 18, 2022 Frontrunner - 18th February 2022
World wheat markets have seen less volatile trading than they have over the past three to four weeks, but prices continue to be underpinned by the worsening situation in Ukraine. US President Biden said on Thursday that there was now every indication that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine in the next few days. Should this be the case, it seems likely there would be interruptions to wheat exports from the Black Sea region, which is a serious concern considering that Russia, Ukraine and Romania continue to dominate international tenders. This week, Algeria’s State grains agency (Office Algerien Interprofessionnel des Cereales), known internationally as the OAIC, is thought to have bought as much as 720,000 tonnes through this week’s tender process with offers from several origins including the Black Sea, Argentina and its traditional primary supplier, France. Romania is thought to be the most likely origin given the competitiveness of its pricing. Romania also took the honours in capturing all the sales to Egypt in its tender this week. The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) was spoilt by a long list of offers also including Russia, Ukraine and France and confirmed a purchase of 180,000 tonnes. The selling price, at an average of $338.50/t including freight for April delivery, is about $10/t below its previous purchase at the end of January. Romania, benefitting from ideal weather during the growing cycle, had a record-yielding 2021 wheat crop at 10.4 million tonnes, which was up by over four million tonnes on the previous year.
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13 min
February 11, 2022 Frontrunner - 11th February 2022
The threat of conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to generate price volatility in world wheat markets. The week started with an optimistic view from traders that a diplomatic solution to the tensions could be found following a seemingly successful meeting between French president Emmanuel Macron and Russian president Vladimir Putin. This triggered a bout of selling on futures markets on Tuesday. However, later in the week, military exercises between Russia and Belarus led Ukraine to state its ports had been blocked by Russian navy activity, which halted commercial shipping operations. Speculative trading and panic buying took wheat futures sharply up to their highest prices in over two weeks. Following this period of panic, calm prevailed and most of the futures price gains were lost, highlighting how sensitive a matter this potential conflict is for grain markets.
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11 min
February 04, 2022 Frontrunner - 4th February 2022
Following last week’s notable volatility, wheat markets started this week making sharp loses and struggled to find any form of recovery. The threat of conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains and, should this be realised, wheat futures prices would rally again. Speculative longs have, however, been encouraged by progress with diplomatic solutions, with many having subsequently taken the exit, bringing futures prices down in the process.
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11 min
January 28, 2022 Frontrunner - 28th January 2022
The world’s wheat markets have seen significant price volatility this week. Fuelled by news reports of increased tension between Russia and the Ukraine, short covering and speculative buying extended gains on Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures by 6% by the close of Tuesday and took the market to its highest level since the end of November last year.
Subsequent diplomatic efforts gave markets confidence a solution to the tensions between Russia and the west might be found, easing speculation of any incursions into Ukraine. With hopes that trade flows and wheat shipments from Russia and Ukraine would continue uninterrupted, wheat futures markets saw heavy selling and, by close of play on Thursday, all the week’s gains had been lost.

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9 min
January 21, 2022 Frontrunner - 21st January 2022
World wheat markets rallied sharply this week, reacting to mainstream media reports of increasing tension between Russia and the Ukraine. This was highlighted by Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures which gained over 7% and, in doing so, recaptured all the losses they had made so far in 2022.
The short covering and speculative buying are understandable given the potential disruption to international trade should conflict develop. Russia is the world’s primary wheat exporter with as much as ten million tonnes from its estimated 35-million-tonne surplus left to ship this season. Ukraine, the fourth-largest wheat exporter, has eight million tonnes from its 24.5-million-tonne surplus to ship. Together, the two countries account for almost 30% of the world’s wheat export trade. Ukraine is also expected to ship up to 33.5 million tonnes of corn this season.

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15 min

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Frontrunner is the weekly grain marketing update from Frontier Agriculture. Covering wheat, barley, oilseed rape, pulses, seeds and fertiliser, we make sure growers can keep up to date with the latest…