There is an explanation for why we only see success stories of
successful people - survivorship bias. Let’s try to understand what is
survivorship bias. How it affects the things we understand. What does it
tell us about success stories and should you follow any advice at all?
Let’s learn all these things with some interesting examples.
Hope you enjoyed FutureIQ by Navin Kabra and Shrikant Joshi. Do hit us
up on Twitter:
@ngkabra http://twitter.com/ngkabra
@shrikant https://twitter.com/shrikant
Listen it on the podcast provider of your choice:
https://tapthe.link/FutureIQRSS
Watch other episodes of The FutureIQ podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLAppTB0r5_TaYueZ0adD42Wiw5X-wTE4v
Books:
Fooled by randomness: https://tapthe.link/FooledByRandomness
Good to great: https://tapthe.link/GoodToGreat
Reference materials:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/?sh=37baec7d630a:
Monkeys beat the stock market (see also, the most successful chimp on
Wall Street - 22nd most successful money manager
https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/most-successful-chimpanzee-on-wall-street)
https://twitter.com/JoePompliano/status/1355690179810439171: Sylvester
Stallone story
https://twitter.com/the8472/status/1628109270230106127: Russian Roulette
https://xkcd.com/1827/: xkcd successful lottery ticket buyer
https://sketchplanations.com/sampling-bias: Sampling bias (online
surveys)
More videos for you:
Karmanye vadhikaraste: https://youtu.be/95Zi_4OthbY
Power law: https://youtu.be/i2YrICwDR5g
Jeff bezos: https://youtu.be/aQg7dAJWqyk
Costly signalling: https://youtu.be/0YEBK7eR3Ek
Dunbar's nubmers: https://youtu.be/ekAtODyfkyw
Chapters:
00:00 Introduction
00:32 Example
04:00 Fooled by randomness
05:40 Alpha
06:03 Luck
06:42 Post hoc fallacy
07:58 Survivorship bias
11:18 Example
14:43 More examples of survivorship bias
17:06 The reasoning
17:56 The takeaway
18:58 More quick examples
26:56 Advise to take & avoid
#futureiq #survivorshipbias