Gilman discusses how data and models are being used and misused by the news with coronavirus (Covid-19).
People have confirmation bias, they try and use the information and what they read to support their position. They then disregard information that does not support their positionAbout the Diamond Princess Cruise ship, and how people are not looking at the data from this ship correctly. The infection is very long, and people simply quit paying attention and assume the story of this cruise ship is complete. So they are drawing incomplete conclusions because the story is still not over.There is lots of data being reported such as # of hospital admissions, # of intubations, # of discharges, # of deaths, etc. What do these things really mean. Often the conclusion that is being made, is not actually accurate if you think a little deeper.The dangers of models everyone is quoting on TV, and why you need to be careful trusting models. There are a lot of assumptions (essentially guesses) used in models. If you change the things you are guessing about, then it dramatically changes what the model predicts. Be very careful of trusting anything a model predicts.All the things we do to prevent spread of the illness changes all of the expectations we have. Lots of people are making claims about the infection being less severe than expected, but then ignoring that we are on quarantine which limits people interacting with each other and getting infected.
Masks and the nonsensical policy of the US.Variolation has been used in the past, it’s a crude technique of infecting people with a very small dose of the virus. The goal is to give the body the upper hand in creating immunity without having a big exposure. This has not been used in hundreds of years and is likely not to be used today. But is an option for highly lethal illnesses if the risk can be proven to be low and there is no other option. The problem with variolation is that some percentage of people will get sick and die from the intentional infection. The amount of virus your body is exposed to initially appears that impact how sick people get. This may be a problem for families who have someone who is sick at home, other family members may have more severe disease and risk than the first person in their family infected.
Doubling time of the virus appears slower now than in the recent past. Why are the “experts” saying that the severity is likely not as severe as previously thought because doubling time has decreased. Of course the doubling time has decreased, people are essentially locked down. That was the whole point of a lock down - to DECREASE the doubling rate.
The length of lock downs is likely longer than we are being told, this has been predictable and something we have talked about extensively. States are starting to control travel along their borders.How do we reopen the economy, it’s not easy. The only realistic way to reopen the economy without the infection spreading again is to have something that changes the risk such as vaccines, treatment, aggressive screening and individual quarantine.
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