GoodFellows: Conversations from the Hoover Institution

An already surreal political year becomes all the more quizzical as former president Donald Trump literally dodges an assassin’s bullet soon before making a surprise pick of Ohio senator J. D. Vance as his running mate; followed by President Biden unexpectedly ending his reelection bid and Vice President Kamala Harris swiftly becoming the Democratic Party’s presumptive presidential nominee. Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster do their best to make sense of these summertime blockbusters, including whether Harris alters her party’s course (triangulate or double down on the past four years?); the pros and cons of Trump-brand nationalism and that philosophy’s hold over a restyled Republican Party; Vance’s qualifications for national office; plus cautionary tales from Biden’s lone presidential term and the chances of more surprises to come before Election Day in America.  

The Dispatch’s Jonah Goldberg joins Good Fellows to discuss his differences with Niall Ferguson’s Soviet America essay, the Biden/Trump gerontocracy, and the European elections. Also, can someone help Niall choose a dog?

How do a historian, an economist, and a geostrategist make the best use of their summers? In an abbreviated GoodFellows, Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster reveal a few of their summertime preferences: favorite leisurely pursuits (land, air, and sea), their go-to foods and drinks, family gatherings (all three are grandparents), recommended books and movies, plus what research and writing lies ahead (plenty of writing and travel). Among the revelations: summer aficionados they are, streaming “vidiots” they’re not; plus, on a conflicting Fourth of July, a dual citizen’s “special relationship” with his native UK and adopted America.

A new “cold war” presents a familiar challenge for America: how to curb a rival great power’s ambitions. Matt Pottinger, a Hoover Institution visiting fellow and editor of the forthcoming book The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss how best to discourage China from moving on its island neighbor. After that: the fellows debate the wisdom of the UK’s fast-tracked national election; plus what, if anything, has surprised them during this year’s round of episodes (spoiler alert: plenty of chickens—bad policies, poorly run universities—came home to roost).

Historians differ over the need to explore “counterfactuals”—the study of scenarios that never happened—and what they can tell us about historical causation. Stephen Kotkin, the Hoover Institution’s Kleinheinz Senior Fellow and noted historian of Russia, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss alternative historical outcomes: Stalin not surviving a two-front invasion in World War II and Churchill dying well beforehand; the American Revolution failing; the Beatles never spearheading pop music’s British Invasion; a Trump victory in 2020 and its potential effect on the current state of affairs in Ukraine and the Middle East; plus a world in which COVID never happened (spoiler alert: it might have impacted John and Niall’s book sales).

Did Israel’s failure to anticipate Hamas’s surprise attack in October 2023 stem from an overreliance on technical rather than human intelligence gathering? And is TikTok really a national security threat to America? Amy Zegart, the Hoover Institution’s Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow and author of Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss Israel’s intel failure, whether TikTok is the menace it’s portrayed to be, plus how spy films (wrongly) shape the public’s view on espionage. Next the fellows discuss the driving forces behind campus unrest across the US and how long the movement will last, followed by a series of other discussions: rebutting anti-American sentiment; the best fast-food burger; the popularity of “Austrian school” economics in South America; and the likely winner were Niall, John, and H.R. to slug it out in a UFC octagon (spoiler alert: Niall and John don’t like their chances). 

Nearly 40 years since the nation last saw comprehensive reform on the matter, the consensus is that America’s immigration system is sorely in need of updating to 21st-century realities. Reihan Salam, Manhattan Institute president and author of the book Melting Pot or Civil War?, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss a smarter approach to welcoming newcomers to America. After that: the fellows discuss the ramifications of Iran’s not-so-surprise missile assault on Israel and what the coming months portend for those warring nations. Finally, John and H.R. (and a few surprise guests) welcome Niall to his “swinging 60s”—Hoover’s “international man of history” officially a sexagenarian on the same day this show was recorded. 

As the six-month anniversary of Hamas’s attack on Israel approaches, what to expect next in that struggle—and is the American president and Israeli prime minister’s working relationship beyond repair? New York Times columnist Bret Stephens joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss the war’s possible expansion into southern Lebanon and Stephens’s vision of a rebuilt Gaza as a Mediterranean version of Dubai. After that, a celebration of four years since GoodFellows’ “shelter-in place” debut, including a little boasting (they saw inflation coming), a little contrition (they didn’t see Trump rebounding), and some big takeaways on geopolitics, economics, and the pandemic’s legacy.

Facing hot wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and a prolonged cold war in East Asia, how does America adapt its military strategy and resources—and in which direction? Elbridge Colby, former Defense Department assistant secretary and cofounder of the Marathon Initiative, which studies great-power competition, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and H.R. McMaster to discuss his contention that rearming America’s military in anticipation of an eventual Chinese move on Taiwan takes priority over conflicts in Ukraine and Israel. Following that: the fellows weigh in on the merits of a forced sale of TikTok by its Chinese owners, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s calling for an early election in Israel, plus how to find one’s soulmate offline (plot spoiler: try attending an intellectual “slap up” dinner, or getting concussed in a rugby match).

Following Super Tuesday’s results, with the US presidential election still the better part of eight months away, a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is all but certain. Victor Davis Hanson, the Hoover Institution’s Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow and author of the soon-to-be-released book The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation, joins Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane and H.R. McMaster to discuss where Biden and Trump stand on “shrinkflation” and the US economy, America’s involvement in overseas conflicts, plus the likelihood of Democrats replacing a struggling Biden at their August national convention and Trump running a disciplined campaign despite his legal travails.