Hi, everyone. I’m Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fall Out of the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode, we will go over a big decision that came out in Virginia at the lower court level where a judge ruled in favor of the Republicans and basically said that the...

00:16.15

Sam Shirazi

process the Democrats used to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot for a referendum was not valid. So obviously a big ruling. However, keep in mind that the Virginia Supreme Court will have the ultimate say in this case, and it’s going to be appealed obviously. So as important as the decision as this individual judge made, it is not necessarily the end all be all.

00:38.46

Sam Shirazi

And we’re going to have to wait to see how the Virginia Supreme Court ends up ruling on it. But I’ll kind of give you the background and then I’ll talk a little bit about this specific opinion by this judge.

00:48.65

Sam Shirazi

I did do my last podcast on this exact topic and really went into the weeds. So if you’re interested, listen to that podcast. And then this podcast, I’ll do a little bit more on the decision and then I’ll talk a little bit about the implications. I should note that. Basically, this is the whole issue in this case it revolves around the 2025 Virginia elections. And so this podcast, even though we’re in 2026, the long shadow of the 2025 Virginia elections is still with us.

01:17.16

Sam Shirazi

And basically, the issue is whether the Democrats correctly passed this proposed referendum right before the election, if that’s valid, or if they had to do it earlier in the year, last year. And that’s essentially the main issue in this case. So it all goes to show you 2025 was a really important year in the Virginia political world, obviously, and it’s still with us. And these questions about did everything go correctly with this referendum process are still with us. So I’ll kind of go over the opinion, then talk about the Virginia Supreme Court.

01:54.12

Sam Shirazi

And so at the end of the day, the Republicans clearly had a strategy. They filed this lawsuit in Tazewell County, which is deep red Virginia. I think they clearly thought that this judge and this court would be sympathetic to to their arguments. And during the oral argument, it was very clear that the judge was skeptical about the Democratic position. And this opinion basically ruled almost entirely for the Republicans and against the Democrats and basically said, you know, the process the Democrats used to push forward with this constitutional amendment to have a referendum was not valid.

02:38.25

Sam Shirazi

So the first thing the judge found was the legislature didn’t really follow its own internal procedures. And I won’t go into the ins and outs of it, but essentially the Democrats had to do this in a special session.

02:50.44

Sam Shirazi

And there’s kind of some questions about whether they follow their own internal procedures. So it’s essentially, did the legislature do everything it needed to do from a process, stand legislative process standpoint? And so that was the first thing the judge found. I mean, to be perfectly honest, I have a hard time believing this will be upheld on appeal. I think this is the least likely grounds for the decision to be upheld, if it is upheld, because typically courts are very skeptical to get into the legislative procedure. They kind of leave that to the legislature. I think there’s a big separation of powers issue.

03:27.92

Sam Shirazi

if the judiciary starts telling the legislature, you know, you have to do this and you have to do that. And you said you were going to do this, but you didn’t do that. Typically, the judiciary just gets involved once the law is passed. You know, if the legislature passes something, then the judiciary will review it. But to kind of review the process by which a bill became law, I think would be pretty unusual.

03:50.44

Sam Shirazi

for each a court to do that. And, you know, at the end of the day, both these, both the state Senate and the House of Delegates passed this twice with majority votes. And so for a court to come in and be like, oh, actually, you shouldn’t have done that, or or you didn’t do the the correct, but you didn’t pass it in the majority vote in the correct way. I think is a little bit odd and, you know, might be viewed as both a separation of powers issue and a kind of anti-democratic principle in the fact that, you know, you’re not even getting to the substance of the issue. You’re really looking at the process behind getting majority votes.

04:23.28

Sam Shirazi

And again, I think the Virginia Supreme Court is going to be pretty hesitant to go there and pretty hesitant to decide the case on those grounds. So, We’ll see. But that was kind of the first reason the judge ruled for Republicans. And again, I think that’s probably the most shaky ground of this opinion.

04:41.82

Sam Shirazi

The second reason why the judge ruled for the Republicans, he basically looked at the Virginia state constitution and looked at the phrase after the next election And he essentially said the election was underway when the Democrats passed the proposed constitutional amendments. Early voting had been going on for a long time. And you know this is a criticism the Republicans had of the whole process. And the judge basically agreed with that.

05:08.64

Sam Shirazi

Again, I’m a little bit skeptical if the Virginia Supreme Court is going to uphold that. The reason is did it may be a valid policy point that it’s not fair to the voters for early voting to have started and then the Democrats sprung this redistricting referendum.

05:25.66

Sam Shirazi

However, I don’t know if that’s necessarily against the what the Virginia Constitution says, because the Virginia Constitution says it has to be passed after the next general election. It doesn’t say, you know, three months before the general the Virginia general election, it has to be passed. It doesn’t say you can’t you can’t pass it after early voting started.

05:45.18

Sam Shirazi

so a lot of that is being read into the Virginia constitution when it’s not there. All the Virginia constitution says is it has to pass once before the election. And then after the next general election, it has to get passed again. And so I think there is a lot of reading being done into the Virginia constitution by making the decision that way.

06:07.81

Sam Shirazi

So anyways, I have a feeling maybe the Virginia Supreme court’s not going to go there either for the second reason. The court, I think kind of understands that because they, they basically said for the third reason, they’re like, even if the first two reasons aren’t, you know, are okay. And the Democrats followed the proper procedure, they, the main issue they have, or or perhaps the biggest issue they have,

06:27.46

Sam Shirazi

is this third question that the court court ruled on. And I do think you know this is probably the one where the Virginia Supreme Court will have to decide, and it’s perhaps the closest call.

06:40.14

Sam Shirazi

And the question was essentially about the state statutory provision. So it’s not part of the state constitution, it’s part of the state law. It says that after this General Assembly session, the clerk of the House of Delegates will send a notice to each of the courts in Virginia basically saying that there have been proposed constitutional amendments. The clerks of each of those courts, the law says, shall post these notices three months before the election.

07:09.02

Sam Shirazi

So obviously that didn’t happen here because the election was basically less than a week away when the Democrats passed this. So I think from a just pure text of the statute issue, this is probably the strongest issue that Republicans have. And I think if the Virginia Supreme Court ends up ruling for the Republicans, I suspect it will be on these grounds because there’s specific language in the Virginia law that the court can point to. As I mentioned, the other two things I think are more...

07:41.38

Sam Shirazi

are kind of shakier and and have a lot of assumptions built into them. This one, you can just kind of look at the law and say, hey, the notices weren’t posted for three months before the election, so this is not valid.

07:53.03

Sam Shirazi

I explained this in my last podcast that the Democrats argued this is essentially a quirk in the law. The Constitution was changed. This three-month requirement was removed from the Constitution, but it was never removed from the state law.

08:07.30

Sam Shirazi

you know i think you know that might be the case i could also see the virginia supreme court saying like you know, it is what it is. Like, it’s still part of the law and we can’t just ignore the statute. And so what do you do with this statute? I think clearly the judge that ruled for the Republicans, he basically said, you know, it’s pretty clear. You have to post this three months before the election. It was not posted three months the before the election.

08:46.89

Sam Shirazi

And I could see it going going both ways. However, it is important to note that the statute itself does not impose any requirements on the General Assembly. So the statute is basically about the duties of these clerks. And so You could argue that this is just kind of, even if you put aside the fact that it should have been removed from the the code and it’s basically a dead letter, if you assume it’s still a valid part of the law, you know the argument is, okay, this imposes some requirements on the clerks for the circuit courts.

09:18.24

Sam Shirazi

But it doesn’t impose any sort of requirement on the General Assembly. If there was some sort of broad requirement on the General Assembly that these had to be posted for three months before the election, that has to be written down somewhere. it has to be written down in the state constitution. At a minimum, it has to be written down explicitly in the state code.

09:35.56

Sam Shirazi

And this idea that this random provision what you really should interpret it from this random provision is actually the general assembly has to pass this three months before the election.

10:03.39

Sam Shirazi

You know, it is what it is. Like the law says that it has to be posted three months before the election. And these were not posted for three months before the election. And, you know, the Democrats are out of luck.

10:13.79

Sam Shirazi

Perhaps they should update the statute now they have a trifecta. But, you know, as for now, they are not going to be able to move forward. So now I basically have to look at my crystal ball and try to predict what the Virginia Supreme Court will do. you know I’m not going to do that. I think it’s very difficult. I could see them ruling either way on this matter. i you know Both sides feel confident. The Republicans feel like they’ve been vindicated. They feel like... We knew that the the Democrats didn’t do the correct procedure and this judge ruled for us and he basically endorsed all of our arguments and this is a very clear cut case. So that’s a Republican position.

10:48.36

Sam Shirazi

I think the Democrats, they are confident this is gonna be overturned on appeal. Their position is essentially that this judge was handpicked by the Republicans to rule in this case. He was obviously gonna be favorable to them and that once it gets the Virginia Supreme Court,

11:03.79

Sam Shirazi

who has you know a reputation for being pretty nonpartisan, they are gonna see this pretty straightforward that the Democrats did follow the procedures.

11:14.51

Sam Shirazi

So both sides feel confident. And ultimately, this is probably gonna decide the issue. I mean, to be perfectly honest, I think if the referendum does happen, the Democrats will have a big advantage right now. And so ultimately, the justices of the Virginia Supreme Court are probably the ones who are going to decide if redistricting is going to happen this year in Virginia. And that’s pretty crazy to think about because These are the same justices who drew the maps that are the current congressional lines. Now they they got two special masters to do most of the work. However, they they blessed and endorsed and signed off on the final map. So it’s pretty crazy to think about that essentially the Virginia Supreme Court in some ways has been the most important player in Virginia redistricting this decade.

12:01.61

Sam Shirazi

They drew the congressional maps. They drew the entire General Assembly maps and the General Assembly maps are gonna stay no matter what. the the This redistricting is just about the congressional maps.

12:12.04

Sam Shirazi

So the Virginia Supreme Court has already drawn all the maps. And now that the Democrats are trying to redistrict and put this referendum on the ballot, the Virginia Supreme Court is going to decide whether it is legal for the Democrats to do that or not. And so, you know, as much as the Democrats have been They won a lot in 2025. They have a trifecta. They have a lot of power.

12:35.44

Sam Shirazi

You know, there is also checks and balances and the judiciary has its own ability to review things. And the Virginia Supreme Court is going to have to play its part as a co-equal branch of government. Now, having said all of that,

12:50.74

Sam Shirazi

I do think the Virginia Supreme Court tends to be pretty deferential, especially in political things, to the elected branches of government. And so, you know, either explicitly or implicitly, I could see them saying, you know, at the end of the day, the legislature did this. It it was passed in two separate sessions of the General Assembly with majorities.

13:10.36

Sam Shirazi

And do we really want to come in and strike this down, especially when this is not the final say? Ultimately, the final say, if the referendum goes forward, is with the voters in Virginia. So the voters are the ones who ultimately have to approve this. And in theory, they could vote it down if you know the Republicans make the arguments that its it shouldn’t go forward. And so, you know, as much as I don’t think the justices of the Supreme Court are thinking about R versus D, red versus blue.

13:40.10

Sam Shirazi

you know Do we rule for the Democrats or do we rule for the Republicans? I do think they are trying to think this through from a legal standpoint. I also think from more of a practical consideration, they are thinking you know is this the type of issue where we, the Virginia Supreme Court, want to step into this and stop the process and stop the voters being able to make the ultimate call?

14:01.26

Sam Shirazi

And you know I don’t know how they’re going make the decision. I suspect it’s going to be pretty based on the law and whatever interpretation of the law they end up having.

14:28.30

Sam Shirazi

So all that’s to say is redistricting in Virginia is a little bit in a limbo and it’s kind of an interesting time for that because the maps are supposed to come out any day now. I thought this week I would do a podcast on the maps when they came out, but instead I’m doing a podcast on this opinion and we’ll have to see what the maps look like. And obviously I’ll provide commentary once those come out.

14:51.84

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, I think the last thing I’ll say is, you know, what happens if Virginia redistricting does not move forward? I think we’ve all kind of assumed that it would happen this year, but now there’s a little bit of a question mark. You know Democrats still seem very confident that Virginia redistricting is going to move forward. And so I don’t think they’ve changed their fundamental assumption that the maps are going to be redrawn. and we’ll see we’ll see if they’re right that that’s what’s going to end up happening.

15:18.96

Sam Shirazi

But if the current maps are in place for the November general election, it’s not like the end of the world for the Virginia Democrats. It’s not like the sky has fallen out and all of a sudden the Virginia Democrats are in in a tough spot.

15:33.26

Sam Shirazi

I think they have a decent... if not a very good opportunity to flip one, if not two seats this year in Virginia. Obviously the second district is kind of the perennial swing district. Almost every election it’s competitive and it tends to flip in midterms.

15:48.59

Sam Shirazi

So I think the second district certainly is going to be a top pickup opportunity for the Democrats. And the Democrats have made a lot of noise about wanting to compete in the first congressional district. It has trended towards the Democrats for a while now.

16:02.80

Sam Shirazi

And they think in this environment, this is the type of seat that can flip. The the first also voted for Spanberger. So in theory, Democrats could pick up two seats under the current map. And you know if that happens,

16:14.82

Sam Shirazi

yeah especially if the first district is flipping, I think there is a very decent chance the Democrats are going to have a majority in the House of Representatives. So all have to say is the Democrats don’t need redistricting necessarily in Virginia. They don’t need it to flip the House in 2026. I do think, obviously, from their perspective, they would prefer to have redistricting, one, because that means they probably have to spend less money in Virginia because those flips are going to be more certain.

16:41.78

Sam Shirazi

And two, because depending on what the final proposed map looks like, they want to flip at least one, if not two more seats in Virginia with the fifth district and potentially with the sixth district. So obviously, if you’re the Democrats, you want redistricting to move forward.

16:56.46

Sam Shirazi

But I don’t want to make it seem like it would be the end of the world for the Democrats if redistricting doesn’t happen, because I do think at the end of the day, the Virginia map it has two seats that Democrats could pick up. And then the national picture, given that Republicans, a lot of their redistricting efforts didn’t move forward in a number of states. I do think it hasn’t been the huge gain that they thought it would be. And at the end of the day, you know, the House looks like the Democrats currently are favored to win the majority, although obviously a lot can happen between now and November. so

17:31.24

Sam Shirazi

All that’s to say is like this is a very interesting legal case. There’s a lot going on, both politically and the legal side. But it’s not necessarily the make or break moment for the national Democrats or even the Virginia Democrats. I think it would be a setback for the Virginia Democrats.

17:47.74

Sam Shirazi

I think you know they’ll be disappointed. Some of their base will be disappointed. The Republicans will feel like they finally have gotten a win in Virginia after such a demoralizing defeat last year.

17:58.65

Sam Shirazi

But I don’t think it fundamentally changes the fact that there are two good pickup opportunities for Democrats. And, you know, at the end of the day, we’ll have to wait and see what happens. I do think it’ll be interesting to see what the different members of Congress end up doing, what the candidates who are running do. I mean, they’re essentially just waiting. We’re all waiting for the Virginia Supreme Court to rule. I do think The Virginia Supreme Court will be relatively quick in its review. I mean, a I suspect they’ll try to get an opinion out in February. They probably have to get some briefing on this issue. I don’t know if they’ll want to have oral arguments.

18:39.50

Sam Shirazi

It is essentially going to be a very quick decision that they’ll have to render. And oftentimes, you know, that can lead to the lower court being affirmed if the court doesn’t want to get involved. But I think with a case like this, which is very time sensitive, very complicated, Virginia constitutional law issue, very big, high profile case, I mean, I think the Virginia Supreme Court is one is going to want to come in here and essentially just make the call and be the one that decides and not necessarily defer to the

19:11.24

Sam Shirazi

lower court. So overall, you know really a little bit of a surprise in the sense that I think most people have thought this thing was going full steam ahead and this is a little bit of kink.

19:22.67

Sam Shirazi

However, to be perfectly honest, I think both sides at least with this lower court judge, had a feeling that the ruling would probably go against the Democrats. And now both sides, I think, are very confident at their position with the Virginia Supreme Court.

19:36.20

Sam Shirazi

And so it’ll be interesting. I think one side will be really disappointed at the Virginia Supreme Court, depending how it goes. And I think if The Democrats end up losing at the Virginia Supreme Court. you know They’ll be disappointed, but I think they’re just going to you know roll with the punches, you know be double down on their efforts in the second district and the first district, and try to pick up the two seats in Virginia.

19:59.36

Sam Shirazi

I do think the Republicans are in a really tough spot if they lose at the Virginia Supreme Court, because now their hopes are kind of up. Oh, yeah, we were right. The Redistricting referendum it wasn’t valid. Democrats didn’t follow the proper procedures.

20:12.90

Sam Shirazi

If the Virginia Supreme Court comes back and lets the Democrats do the referendum, and you know in all likelihood, I think that the Republicans are just going to roll over and play dead. And I don’t think they’re going to even really seriously contest the referendum. I think the referendum would pass.

20:26.98

Sam Shirazi

You know, we’ll have to see what the final map is. i think that Republicans wouldn’t really even try to save the incumbents because, you know, the maps are going to be drawn in a way that probably wouldn’t help the incumbents. And, you know, at the end of the day, it’ll be it’ll be bad, I think.

20:41.100

Sam Shirazi

It’s kind of you know crazy to think that the Republicans had such a bad 2025. Now they feel like they have something going their way. i do think the air is going to come out of the balloon pretty quickly if the Virginia Supreme Court rules against them. 2026 is going to look really rough for the Virginia Republicans after a rough 2025. 2027 is going to be rough for the Virginia Republicans in all likelihood. 2028, we’ll see, will probably be rough as well.

21:07.82

Sam Shirazi

And frankly, even if redistricting, like I said, doesn’t end up happening this year in Virginia, I think 2026 could be pretty rough for the Virginia Republicans. You know, I don’t want to speculate too much, but, you know, I i would say right now in the second district, even on the under the current lines, Elaine Luria, who used to represent that district, might be the slight favorite just because of the impact of the federal cuts to Hampton Roads and the fact that that district just swings so much from election to election, midterm to midterm. So that district, it flipped in the 2022 midterm, it flipped in the 2018 midterm, it flipped in the 2010 midterm, it flipped in 2008 during the blue wave. So it’s a district that flips a lot.

21:51.17

Sam Shirazi

And I do think there’s a decent chance that the Democrats are going to be able to flip that no matter what. First district’s a little bit different because you have stronger incumbent. You have a district that’s a little bit more Republican.

22:02.07

Sam Shirazi

And we’ll see. I think the Democrats definitely have a shot there, but I think it would be a tougher lift for them to be able to flip the the first district. So all that’s to say is like either way, you know i’ll I’ll be covering it all. If the redistricting happens, that’ll be interesting in its own way. If the redistricting doesn’t happen, it’s going to be interesting in its own way. Both sides feel confident in their legal position, and we’ll just have to wait and see. so You know, the wild ride, which is the Virginia elections, never ends. So I will keep covering it all. And I appreciate everyone who’s been listening. And i I’ll do my best to keep covering it. And this has been Federal Fallout. And I’ll join you next time.

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