By Ramesh Thakur at Brownstone dot org.

On 20 November 2025, the Hallett inquiry into the UK Covid experience published its 800-page Module 2 report. An inquiry of, by, and for lawyers, it is a carefully curated political whitewash with no forensic exploration of the truth and no hope of any accountability.

It collapses the most consequential public policy decisions in British history into a problem of mere timing caused by process failures. Far from revealing what happened, it is a testament to the refusal of the state to admit error. Many leaders are happy to engage in serial apologies and consider reparations in the name of the state they represent for incidents of alleged wrongdoings deep in the past well before their time, especially if these demonstrate their progressive pieties. But they seem incapable of acknowledging, saying sorry for, and offering compensation for instances of states behaving badly during their own time in office.

Far from mollifying critics looking for acknowledgement and accountability, the report will bring back the anger and rage associated with governments' Covid excesses. It reveals the chair, former Court of Appeal Judge Baroness Heather Hallett, to be science- and numeracy-illiterate, with an inability to grasp complex facts and little capacity for logical reasoning. 'Had a mandatory lockdown been imposed' one week earlier, the report concluded, 'modelling has established that the number of deaths in England in the first wave up until 1 July 2020 would have been reduced by 48% - equating to approximately 23,000 fewer deaths' (Vol. I, p. 5).

This is a truly astonishing assertion. It demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of modelling. They do not 'establish' any conclusions. Rather, they are built on assumptions and their outputs are speculative and often contentious forecasts - guesstimates - dressed in pretend mathematical precision.

Professor Neil Ferguson, whose modelling is relied on for the assertion, is widely discredited for a history of predictions on other diseases that proved to be excessively alarmist by orders of magnitude. Every time his Covid modeling was able to be measured against reality, it came up short. Sweden falsified the modeling which predicted the loss of 35,000 lives in the first wave without immediate lockdown; the actual figure was 6,000. It saved more lives than the UK. Rather than an exception that proved the rule, Sweden was the control case that falsified the narrative by sticking to the pre-pandemic script and therefore must never be mentioned.

Besides, Ferguson's paper on which Hallett relies also conceded that an earlier lockdown could have resulted in a larger second wave by deferring and not averting further infections. There is another way of showing that inconvenient truth. On 5 May 2021, in an article on the Pearls and Irritations site in Australia, I wrote that Figure 1 is 'graphic evidence of the policy-invariance of Covid-19 with regard to non-pharmaceutical interventions, where the infection, hospitalisation, and mortality curves have followed their own logic and remarkably similar trajectories.'

A second interesting feature about the graph is the broad convergence of the end of the first curve by the end of summer in 2020. Czechia had instituted lockdowns early, and its performance until that date, enthusiastically lauded in the MSM, appears to justify Hallett's claim that more lives could have been saved had the UK gone into strict lockdown a week earlier. But the explosion of Czechia's mortality toll in autumn 2020 is the truer picture, decisively invalidating Hallett's assertion of the net difference in mortality. As David Livermore, a retired Professor of Medical Microbiology at the University of East Anglia, comments in the Daily Sceptic in his article on the Hallett report: 'At best [Czechia's] early lockdown delayed deaths; at worst it displaced the pandemic into the winter when people, with less sunlight and lower vitamin D levels...