Haman Nature

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On this one, Tyrone and I get into what we mean when we talk about odds and probability. Most people speak sloppily about these kinds of concepts, and it leads to people thinking sloppily about them. The conversation is kicked off by referencing this Haman Nature article.

Want to really understand the difference between “odds” or “probability” and “my best guess is…”? Ask a professional gambler!

Plus, we get into simulation theory, Drake’s equation, God, space aliens, crappy “science”, and the wonderful Michael Crichton.

On this "crossover" episode with Bob Murphy of the Bob Murphy show, Adam and Bob talk about the effects (societal and economic) of drugs and drug prohibition. Jeremy Kauffman is mentioned, but we promise it's only peripherally.

00:00 — Intro. Once again, a feud on Twitter(X) leads to great content!

00:49 — What is the libertarian case for drug legalization? Why is often misunderstood?

02:56 — Adam makes a startling admission. Also, does Austrian economics tell us what the effects of drug prohibition would be on consumer demand and product safety?

04:33 — Adam promotes an episode of Natural Order Podcast (linked below) where Oregon had a horrible result when they "decriminalized" possession of many drugs.

06:00 — Bob says many smart things about this issue. Also, Adam makes a case for why conservatives should support eliminating drug prohibition. Also, the reasons why prohibition makes things "worse" are laid out.

19:04 — More details of the Oregon "decriminalization" fiasco are discussed. Also, how do libertarians handle all these "half-measures" offered to us on various issues? The "experiment" seems to refute us, but does it?

24:13 — How should libertarians think about possible "half-measures" on the way towards liberty? Which ones are good? Which are bad? What's the difference?

31:03 — Adam makes an odd argument that ending government prohibitions on drugs (and, in fact, all government) would lead to a decrease in drug use. Also, does fiat money ruin everything?

37:10 — Bob tackles a misconception about why black markets lead to more crime. It's not that there's "too little" police protection, it's that there's too much.

40:32 — Adam asks Bob what he thinks the effects would be if a covenant community outlawed drugs within its borders?

45:33 — Outro. Also, Adam claims that he's completely solved the drug abuse and homelessness problem in Natural Order Podcast Episode 15.

Natural Order Podcast episode mentioned:

Bob Murphy book mentioned:

Mark Thornton article mentioned:

Miron/Zweibel paper mentioned:

The Bob Murphy Show:

Adam's other show: Natural Order Podcast

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Adam and Tyrone discuss Google's woke new AI, Gemini, what Large Language Models are and what they aren't. Oh, and they possibly get the show cancelled for talking like boomers.

00:00 — Intro. Adam and Tyrone are using a lot of Google products. Uh-oh! Better "Do the right thing."

02:22 — After failing to land a Spike Lee joke, Adam and Tyrone discuss what's up with Google these days, and what "AI" is, and isn't. Adam has thoughts about how true AI could come about, if such a thing is even possible.

09:50 — A Matt Walsh video is played, featuring a very bad tech manager who might be the reason why Google's new AI, Gemini, is woke and racist.

18:20 — Adam and Tyrone talk about Google Gemini's racist image generation.

19:40 — Tyrone uses Google's new motto, "Do the right thing", as a launching-off point to talk about what morality "is", and the dangers of insisting that you know what "the right thing" is.

23:01 — How does all this impact our search results and our interactions with AI? What does this mean for how we will seek knowledge going forward? Adam gives an example of how AI hallucinates. We can't trust it. It isn't a fount of knowledge.

27:55 — Adam and Tyrone briefly discuss Matt Walsh's new film Am I Racist?

30:04 — What about Amazon's AI, Alexa? Is it woke? Does it have weird lefty political positions?

77:14 — Outro.

Haman Nature article mentioned:

Matt Walsh video mentioned:

Adam's other show: Natural Order Podcast

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit hamannature.substack.com/subscribe

Adam and Bob have a fascinating conversation about all things money! How and why it came about, what it does for us, where things went wrong, and where do we go from here?

00:00 — Intro. Adam has questions about money. What "is" money? How do we define it?

06:09 — What is the origin of money? How do we know? Do we have a historical record? How would we answer this question with theory? In answering this question, we begin to see why money is useful — even essential.

20:25 — What are the competing theories? If we believe in a bottom up emergence, what are the alternative hypotheses? You'll never guess, ideology drives which theory is believed.

26:43 — Bob explains Mises's famous "regression theorem" solution to the seeming "circular" argument problem about explaining where money gets it's value.

30:46 — Given that the "money" value of the money commodity quickly becomes MUCH larger than its commodity value, how do we think about money completely separated from it's commodity use case? Can such a thing actually be money? Clearly, we use a fiat dollar. How do these principles relate to Bitcoin?

41:01 — So, we're stuck with the fiat US dollar now, and the US government is over $35 trillion in debt. How bad is our situation and what comes next?

50:49 — Adam wonders if we can increase our productivity with innovations in tech such that we "grow" our way out a complete financial collapse? Bob's answer inspires a brief but interesting talk about what LLMs (AI) are, and what they are not.

59:21 — What's the deal with "de-dollarization"? Will the US dollar lose its status as the "reserve currency of the world"? What happens if it does?

64:47 — Austrian Economist FA Hayek had a "competing currency" proposal to let us opt out of a fiat system. Can that be resurrected and apply in the modern age?

70:26 — Adam asks his most important question of the episode! Also, Bob talks about the goofy plan of: Mint a platinum coin and stamp “$1 trillion" on it. Then sell it to the Fed for actual money. What could go wrong?

77:14 — Outro.

Bob Murphy article mentioned:

Bitcoin website/article mentioned:

The Bob Murphy Show:

The Human Action podcast:

Bob on Twitter(X):

Adam's other show: Natural Order Podcast

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Adam and Tyrone have a lot to say about these darned roads. It's almost like goods and services provided by a monopolist might just... suck.

00:00 — Intro. Adam has had an epiphany about libertarianism. It can't work! Who would build the roads!

02:20 — Tyrone's been stuck in traffic a lot lately, and it reminds him of a Haman Nation article (linked below).

04:52 — Tyrone plugs the seminal work on this subject, The Privatization of Roads & Highways, by Walter Block (linked below)

07:10 — Tyrone brings up an ancient theory of property rights (ad coelum) and that is contrasted against more libertarian (and better) theories of property rights.

14:20 — The road system we have now looks nothing like what would have emerged in a free market — and that's a good thing! Tyrone illustrates the point beautifully while griping about traffic in his home town.

18:24 — Adam takes a moment to mock California's central corridor train boondoggle, as well as the steaming pile of corruption that is the proposed LA to Vegas "bullet train". Tyrone piles on with the concept of distributed costs and concentrated benefits and shows off a light-rail boondoggle of his own.

23:26 — Adam recalls nostalgically the time when the Soviet Union still existed. As horrible as it was, it helped our societal intuition to have that standing example of how bad the government is at the production of public goods.

28:11 — Outro. Hey government! Who should build the roads? Anybody but you, you thieving creeps!

Haman Nature article mentioned:

Book mentioned: The Privatization of Roads & Highways by Walter Block (promo link)

Adam's other show: Natural Order Podcast

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit hamannature.substack.com/subscribe

Bob and Adam go over a recent incident in which the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire's controversial tweet caused a pair of FBI agents to try to intimidate Jeremy Kauffman. Instant viral video! But was it wise? Was it "worth it"?

00:00 — Intro. Adam welcomes Economist Bob Murphy of the Mises Institute and the world renowned Bob Murphy Show!

01:51 — The "facts of the case" are presented and also some areas where Adam and Bob agree and disagree. Bob enters into evidence some of the more spicy of LPNH's tweets, along with the tweet in question.

09:43 — Adam lays out the problems he has with LPNH's activities on X, while pointing out some of the positives that come along with such behavior. Where's the balance? Also: often times "hurtful" looks like "racist", but the two traits aren't the same.

15:47 — LPNH said a person would be a hero if they did [the bad thing]. Adam and Bob strongly disagree. Also, Adam introduces the benefits of being "edgy", while arguing that it's probably not a tactic, it's probably a personality trait. Poker player Phil Helmuth is mentioned - negatively.

26:17 — Adam and Bob discuss the Kauffman/FBI encounter. Was it "perfect"? Is it true that "you couldn't script it any better?" Adam and Bob break down the pros and cons.

32:57 — Bob argues against Adam's point in the article that on net the tweet + the encounter was a net positive. A long and deep discussion on that matter from many angles ensues.

47:52 — "Collapsitarianism" is discussed. Should we root for "it all to burn down" so we can start rebuilding a libertarian society? Bob makes a devastating point: Do the people who stop traffic on the roads for some cause attract sympathy? Or the opposite?

53:01 — Adam asks Bob: The world is getting worse, but our movement is gaining momentum. How does it net out for you? Are you white-pilled?

58:06 — Bob makes a great analogy to marketing funnels. Be aware of your "conversion rate", but also be aware of your "completely turning people off" rate. Both are important.

60:52 — Outro. A message for X posters that Bob and Adam agree on: If you're going to be edgy, be funny. Always be funny.

Haman Nature article mentioned:

Bob Murphy Show episode mentioned.

Kauffman/FBI video mentioned.

Bob's article about Texas secession, “Common Sense”

Adam's other show: Natural Order Podcast

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit hamannature.substack.com/subscribe

What does it mean when prominent war-hungry neoconservatives support your presidential campaign? Does it mean that you are a blood-soaked puppet of monsters? Tyrone and Adam discuss!

00:00 — Intro. A fond remembrance is given of the time that Scott Horton demolished Bill Kristol at a Soho Forum debate about US foreign policy. Link below!

04:36 — Tyrone shares the big news! Liz and Dick Cheney both endorse Kamala Harris for president! Also, Adam has a good time making fun of the so-called "punk" band Green Day.

04:46 — A discussion is had about Reagan's famous "coalition" that swept him to victory in 1980. Who joined? Who got suckered? Who benefitted? Are the neocons "realists"? Do they believe their own message?

12:01 — Adam tries to explain the behavior and motivations of neocons by using the famous "Baptist and Bootlegger" analogy.

15:10 — Adam reveals the surprising villain at the heart of the push for One World Government: Gene Roddenberry! A discussion ensues about the economics of the Star Trek universe.

18:00 — Tyrone says "violence always comes from the left". Adam agrees, and points out both of the major political parties in the US are leftist.

20:06 — Adam talks about the Horton/Kristol debate and some of the best aspects of that momentous event.

24:20 — Outro. Thanks for listening! Please consider becoming a paid subscriber at hamannature.com! '

Horton/Kristol debate mentioned:

Adam's other show: Natural Order Podcast

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit hamannature.substack.com/subscribe

It's the question of our times! How many national anthems should exist and be played before football and baseball games? Adam and Tyrone are on the case with brilliant (and hilarious) analysis.

00:00 — Intro. Football season is back! To honor the return of sportsball, Adam and Tyrone revisit a Haman Nature Substack article about the subject from last February.

04:36 — Grumpy Old Adam explains why he doesn't watch football anymore. Covid and it's stupidity is revisited. Also, Adam says something insane to generate hate mail!

08:52 — So, what should it mean for something to be a "national anthem"? Does it make sense to have more than one? Is a Black National Anthem a non-sequitur? Should we have more? And what's with football games being recruiting tools for the military?

13:09 — Patriotism. It's ingrained in us from a very young age. Is it good? Bad? Inevitable? Tyrone brings up an interesting point: Perhaps the Black National Anthem is a harbinger of a more decentralized (and perhaps more libertarian) future.

17:20 — Tyrone advances a theory that corporations don't care about this identitarian nonsense and only care about the bottom line. Adam advances an alternate theory on how to understand the behavior of corporate actors.

22:03 — Tyrone has had enough of Adam's curmudgeonly behavior and deliver's the true message of this episode: "Go Vikings!" Also, Tyrone shows a counter-intuitive example of how to make the game of football safer. Adam does the same for cars.

27:12 — Outro.

Article mentioned: Nice BNA, but why so stingy?

Adam's other show: Natural Order Podcast

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit hamannature.substack.com/subscribe

Only two days late, Adam and Tyrone discuss Labor Day. Adam hates it, mostly in opposition of perceived fashion tyranny. Also, unions, scabs, minimum wage, and racism. Enjoy!

00:00 — Intro. Happy Labor Day! A time for brats and beers and barbecue and bonfires! But don't try to tell Adam not to wear white if'n he wants to.

02:56 — So, what's Labor Day all about? Unions, say many. Adam tells a story explaining why he hates unions.

06:31 — Wait a minute, what's wrong with collective bargaining? Nothing, so long as all participation is voluntary and property rights are respected.

10:30 — Adam and Tyrone smash some of the popular myths about unions and the historical "good" they have done. Audio typo alert: Adam says "workers" at one point when he means "employers".

13:25 — Tyrone emphasizes the point with a time-machine thought experiment. Also, Adam does one of his most favorite things, referencing Douglas Adams's Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.

15:25 — More on the inefficiency and waste of unions -- and how unions harm other workers, largely through the use of hateful and racist minimum wages — Adam brings receipts in the form of quotations.

26:03 — Tyrone talks about two good books. Promo links below. Also an enjoinder: Please don't support minimum wages. They hurt good people.

30:12 — Outro. Adam has words for the unionist jackass who keyed his 1978 VW Dasher!

Sources for the quotations cited:

From the Foundation for Economic Education.

From the Daily Signal.

Book mentioned: Henry Hazlitt's Economics in One Lesson.

Book mentioned: Walter Williams's The State Against Blacks.

Adam's other show: Natural Order Podcast

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit hamannature.substack.com/subscribe

Adam gives Tyrone a little mini-poker lesson. A few interesting concepts are discussed solo and then Adam goes over hand histories from an actual student to reveal how he thinks about real-life poker situations as they come up at the table. Enjoy!

00:00 — Intro. Tyrone still has poker on the brain! And Adam is still shamelessly plugging his services as a poker coach.

03:27 — Warning: This conversation isn't for rank beginners. We dive into some deeper concepts to give people a taste of how rich and fascinating this game can be.

06:21 — First topic: When and how to defend your blinds in No Limit Hold'em. Along the way, Tyrone gives his strategy for always finishing 2nd in any poker tournament!

11:46 — Second topic: What are "fold points"? Know what yours are, and even more importantly, recognize what your opponents' are.

15:34 — Third topic: What are the big strategic differences between cash games and tournaments?

18:04 — Hand analysis #1: Playing a pair of pocket jacks out of position. Also, what does "effective stack size" mean?

35:04 — Hand analysis #2: Playing 9-7 off-suit from the small blind. Pot odds, implied odds, and playing drawing hands out of position — hint: don't.

47:23 — Hand analysis #3: When having three aces isn't as great as you'd think. Plus, perceived weakness, value-betting, and the definition of "a set".

62:28 — Outro — and another shameless plug!

Want Adam to be your coach?

Adam on the Tom Woods Show talking about poker.

Adam's other show: Natural Order Podcast

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit hamannature.substack.com/subscribe