Hi everyone, I’m Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout, the Virginia Elections. This episode we will go over a special election in the 98th House of Delegates District and talk about what that might mean for the redistricting referendum.

00:12.92

Sam Shirazi

Now, I want to caveat that first by saying special elections are definitely special and you cannot read too much into them because they’re very unique circumstances, really depends on the district, depends on the night.

00:24.84

Sam Shirazi

So I don’t want to go too crazy with the special election analysis, However, I did want to spend a little bit of time talking about this district because I think people were a little bit surprised. Generally, since President Trump was elected in 2024, Democrats have been doing well in special elections. Most special elections Democrats overperform. And what does overperforming mean? Typically, overperformance is measured against 2024 results in the district. So, for example, if Trump won a district by 10 points in 2024, but the Democrat wins a district by five points in the special election, that would be a 15 point overperformance.

01:01.86

Sam Shirazi

And across the country, we’ve seen Democrats doing really well in special elections. Most special elections, Democrats overperform. And earlier this year, there have been a bunch of special elections in deep blue seats in Virginia. And almost all of those special elections, Democrats have also overperformed.

01:17.58

Sam Shirazi

So there’s a sense that Democrats are doing well in these special elections. And I think people were looking at this special election in the 98th house district to see what would happen because while it is a pretty red district it is not overwhelmingly red in 2024 uh president trump won this specific district by about uh 15 points however in 2025 spamburger carried excuse me spamburger still lost the district but it was a little bit closer she only lost it by about six and a half points

01:49.02

Sam Shirazi

However, this district generally is known as more of a Republican district. It is in the most Republican part of Virginia Beach, which is kind of the southern part of Virginia Beach, includes even some rural areas and as well as some suburban areas.

02:03.54

Sam Shirazi

And in 2025, the delegate who won that election was Barry Knight. He won by about 13%. So he overperformed Spanberger and did better than the top of the ticket.

02:15.99

Sam Shirazi

And so, you know, When you look at this district, it’s kind of a Republican-leaning district, but not overwhelmingly so. Now, Delegate Knight unfortunately passed away, and so that’s why you had a special election for this seat.

02:29.18

Sam Shirazi

And again, people were looking at this seat, seeing what would happen. Would it be close? Would the Democrats be able to overperform again? And it looks like Democrats have not done that. They are not going to overperform. This will be a rare instance where the Republicans actually overperform.

02:43.10

Sam Shirazi

And I want to caveat by saying we do not have all the ballots yet. So in Virginia, the mail ballots can be received up until Friday at noon if they have been postmarked by Election Day.

02:54.22

Sam Shirazi

So we don’t have all the ballots in. And basically, it’s impossible to know how many mail ballots are still out there. Typically in special elections, there tend to be more late ballots than usual because the early voting period is shorter.

03:07.30

Sam Shirazi

People get their absentee ballots later, and so they have less time to return it. So you usually see more late mail in special elections. So I caveat all about saying the the vote totals are not final. However, i think the outcome pretty clear. Certainly the Republicans are going to win the seat.

03:24.05

Sam Shirazi

And it looks like they are probably going to overperform Donald Trump’s margin in 2024. So as of the time of recording, the Republican in the 98th House of Delegates seat, Andrew Rice, got about 62.5% of the vote, the Democrat, Cheryl got 37.5% of the vote.

03:40.63

Sam Shirazi

that’s about a 25% margin for Republicans.

03:45.08

Sam Shirazi

so that’s about a twenty five percent or margin for the republicans you know That’s probably going to come down a little bit, but I don’t think it’s going to come down that much. And so if you think the district being a 15% Trump district in 2024, almost certainly the Republicans are going to overperform in this special election, unless there’s like a crazy amount of late mail that will be added, which seems relatively unlikely.

04:08.36

Sam Shirazi

So in the grand scheme of things, Republicans had a good night with the special election. They overperformed. And so the question becomes, what does all this mean? So I think a few things were at play here. One, obviously, when a delegate passes away, it’s it’s very unfortunate. And I think it was kind of a circumstance where it didn’t exactly lend itself to the Democrats having a big overperformance. It’s not like a situation where someone resigns in scandal. So I think the reason for the special election often is important.

04:40.15

Sam Shirazi

And then if you look look at this district, It’s in more of a kind of white working class part of Virginia Beach. So typically Democrats have a harder time overperforming in districts with white working class voters.

04:52.74

Sam Shirazi

There are suburban portions of the district, so I want to pretend, you know, it’s just a classic white working class district. But it certainly has some rural areas where I think it’s just very difficult for the Democrats to overperform in a district like that.

05:05.09

Sam Shirazi

I also think the elephant in the room is the redistricting referendum. And so I want to talk a little bit more about that, because I think one explanation of what happened is the Republicans are fired up and they’re upset about the redistricting referendum.

05:18.76

Sam Shirazi

Potentially, they could also be generally upset at what’s been going on in Richmond since the Democrats took over in January. So perhaps they’re upset with some of the bills that have been passed.

05:29.71

Sam Shirazi

And so I think generally the Virginia Republicans are more fired up than they were in 2025. Now, having said that, I mean, 2025 was a really bad year for the Virginia Republicans. So it’s basically as low as they’ve been in a long time. So the fact that the Virginia Republicans are doing better than 2025 doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re doing great, but it definitely was the lowest point they’ve been. And I think they’ve a little bit started to dig themselves out of the hole. And how have they done it? i mean, I think At the end of the day anger is a very strong motivator to vote. And obviously in 2025, Democrats were angry at what was going on in D.C.

06:04.36

Sam Shirazi

And so they were very motivated to vote. They were motivated to talk to their friends, convince them to vote for the Democrats. Democrats got a big win. After that big win, Democrats came into Richmond. They did a lot of things.

06:16.24

Sam Shirazi

And specifically, with redistricting that upset a lot of Republicans. And so now you see the opposite reaction where Republicans are upset and perhaps they are starting to organize, whereas last year they were a little bit at asleep. And this is kind of a common thing we see in Virginia.

06:31.41

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, that all goes to show you in in politics, you know, for... every action there is an equal and opposite reaction so democrats get a big landslide in 2025 uh they start doing all these things including redistricting you would think that the real reaction on the republican side and it kind of goes back to one of the things i’ve talked about that in politics one of the hardest things is to be present you know it’s easy in politics to one that we live the last election for the rest of time republicans want it to be 2024 forever Democrats want to be 2025 forever.

07:01.04

Sam Shirazi

The reality is the world moves, things change. And I think 2026 is 2026. And the environment is different than 2025, than 2024. And I also think it’s important to kind of think about regional dynamics in elections. Like perhaps the Democrats are doing really well nationally.

07:17.68

Sam Shirazi

National environment is definitely behind the Democrats. But perhaps in Virginia, Things are not as blue as they were in 2025, partly because the redistricting, partly because Democrats got a trifecta.

07:29.14

Sam Shirazi

And yeah, so I mean, I don’t want to overread what happened in the Virginia special election as meaning, you know, Democrats are definitely going to lose the redistricting referendum. That’s certainly not the case. I think it’s just an indication that maybe the Republicans have woken up a little bit since 2025.

07:46.18

Sam Shirazi

I won’t go and do this kind of deep dive early vote analysis right now. I think it’s too early. But, you know, there have been some indications that Republicans generally are turning out more than they did in 2025 for early voting. Again, I think it’s very early to read too much into that.

08:00.100

Sam Shirazi

And again, 2025 Republicans did pretty bad. So the fact that they’re doing better than 2025 is not necessarily saying a whole lot. And it doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re going to win.

08:12.04

Sam Shirazi

But it does show that I think perhaps 2025 was kind of a low point for the Virginia Republicans. And I do think they’re going to start rebuilding a little bit in 2026. Having said that, I mean,

08:23.40

Sam Shirazi

They were in a 15 point hole for the governor’s race. And so to dig out of a 15 15 point hole in the governor’s race is a lot. And let’s say the Republicans do like 10 percent better than they did last year at the governor’s race.

08:34.64

Sam Shirazi

i mean, they’re still going to lose by like 5 percent. So I think it’s important to have some perspective, even as the Republicans are doing better. It doesn’t mean that they’re going to win. Now, having said all that, I also wanna have some humility and just kind of think this through because one of the things I noticed with, as I was thinking through the California, Virginia comparison.

08:54.10

Sam Shirazi

So in California, the redistricting referendum passed overwhelmingly. And I think that gave Democrats in Virginia some confidence that this redistricting referendum was going to pass. And it kind of reminded me of something that happened in 2021. And not to give Virginia Democrats some bad memories, but I did kind of come to my mind. So 2021, obviously, there had started to be a backlash to the Democrats as President Biden came into office.

09:19.85

Sam Shirazi

And there was a recall referendum. in California for the governor, Gavin Newsom, and he was able to successfully fight that off. And that was before the Virginia elections in 2021.

09:32.22

Sam Shirazi

And I remember when Gavin Newsom won the recall, I think there was a sense among Virginia Democrats, it’s not that big of a deal. We’re okay. And obviously in 2021, the Republicans were able to win with Glenn Youngkin.

09:45.74

Sam Shirazi

And so I guess what I’m getting at is just because the rejection referendum passed by a lot in California doesn’t mean that it’s necessarily going to be a slam dunk in Virginia. And so I do think it’s important for the Virginia Democrats not to take anything for granted.

09:59.92

Sam Shirazi

i think the Republicans are more fired up than they were last year. i think certainly independents, some of them who voted for Spanberger going to be a little bit skeptical of this proposal. i think the idea of gerrymandering kind of sits wrong with them, even if they understand that President Trump was the one who’s kind of started the redistricting wars.

10:18.56

Sam Shirazi

I think they understand that, you know, in their mind, maybe two wrongs don’t make a right. On the other side, obviously, Democrats are generally upset at what’s been going on in D.C. And that has continued into 2026. And they understand that this redistricting referendum in Virginia is a way to kind of fight back in their minds.

10:34.82

Sam Shirazi

And there’s certainly a lot of independents who perhaps they don’t like gerrymandering. But their number one issue is also sending a message to President Trump. We saw this in 2025 with the attorney general race where Jay Jones was able to win with a pretty comfortable margin because ae a lot of independents basically said, I would rather send a message to President Trump and vote the Democrat than to vote for Jason Muir as a Republican.

10:57.80

Sam Shirazi

And I think you could see something like that here where some independents may not like the concept of gerrymandering, but they want to send a message to President Trump. So all that’s to say is like, I think at a minimum, the redistricting referendum is going to be closer than the governor’s race in 2025.

11:11.90

Sam Shirazi

twenty twenty five Now, that’s not saying a whole lot because Spanberger winning by 15 was the biggest margin that Democrats got in Virginia in a long time. So it’s not a huge surprise to say that the redistricting referendum is going to be closer than 2025.

11:23.74

Sam Shirazi

twenty twenty five But the question is, is it going to be Within 10 points, within five points, or are we kind of entering a territory where the Republicans could actually win the redistricting referendum? I think that still kind of seems unlikely at this point, but I do think the special election, some of the early voting data suggests that Republicans do have some momentum compared to the Democrats at this point.

11:44.84

Sam Shirazi

However, and I always caveat people with early vote because it’s way too early to draw big conclusions with early vote. Why mail mail ballots take a time a while to process.

11:55.40

Sam Shirazi

It takes a while for them to be sent to the voters, for the voters to to read to get them, to fill them out, to send them back in, to have the... paperwork process for a mail ballot. So I think mail ballots are going to continue to be added to the system. And those typically tend to be overwhelmingly democratic and they come from overwhelmingly democratic places.

12:13.78

Sam Shirazi

And then the other thing is just the satellite voting locations. Most satellite voting locations are located in democratic localities and those tend to open later in the early voting cycle. And I think especially this time, there is going to be less satellite voting compared to 2025. So I think The Democratic early voting might be less than 2025. There might be more early voting on Election Day just because the satellite voting locations have reduced hours and in some places reduced locations as compared to 2025. So all that’s to say is it is still very early. There is still over a month until the redistricting referendum. I don’t think either side can really take it for granted. i don’t think either side can confidently feel like they’re 100 percent going to win.

12:59.46

Sam Shirazi

I do think it’s a little bit of a different vibe than 2025. 2025, I think for most of that election, at least at the governor’s level, almost everyone kind of had a gut feeling that Spanberger was going to win. I don’t think it was a huge surprise when Spanberger won.

13:11.36

Sam Shirazi

think we all had a feeling that was going to happen. Here, I think most people feel that Democrats have an advantage in a redistricting referendum, but it’s not necessarily this overwhelmingly slam dunk. You know, there’s no way the Republicans can win.

13:22.100

Sam Shirazi

So all that’s to say is I think it’s important to always be paying attention to the pulse of what’s going on and not necessarily go off the last election or to kind of go off what know you think should happen, given the NYMEX in California and with the redistricting referendum. Every election is unique. You really have to kind of keep your pulse on it.

13:44.50

Sam Shirazi

And I do think the Republicans have started to kind of right the ship a little bit in Virginia relative to 2025. Keep in mind that they had a very bad 20, 25 and the Democrats, you know, I don’t think that they’re in that much trouble.

13:58.36

Sam Shirazi

However, when you get a big election win like 20, 25, there often does get tend to be a sense of complacency, a sense of, you know, obviously Virginia is a deep blue state now and we’re to, you know, we don’t have to work anymore. And I think, I think that’s just not the case. Virginia turned blue during the first Trump administration,

14:16.90

Sam Shirazi

And then it turned back into, at least at the state level, a more purple state. And I do think here there is a possibility, even if President Trump’s in the White House, that the Virginia Democrats still need to work on this redistricting referendum.

14:31.40

Sam Shirazi

And I guess the last thing I’ll i’ll say about the redistricting refer referendum is... you know My sense is the the hardcore Republicans and the hardcore Democrats understand what’s going on.

14:41.52

Sam Shirazi

They’re really motivated. They’re going to vote. The question becomes kind of the low propensity Democrats, the low propensity Republicans. In 2025, Democrats did a better job getting out their low propensity voters.

14:52.85

Sam Shirazi

I think there’s a possibility in 2026, perhaps the Republicans right now are doing a better job getting out or at least and educating their low propensity voters. voters And so I think the Democrats also have to think about not just their highly engaged voters, but the low propensity voter, you know, the working class voter that’s, you know, perhaps in Hampton Roads or the college student, you know, are those people who voted in 2025 going to come out again in 2026? And I think it’s a little bit of an open question. Some of those early voting data hasn’t been great for the Democrats.

15:24.36

Sam Shirazi

But the good news is they still have a lot of time over over a month left to get out those voters. And then also Democrats have a financial advantage. So I think that’s certainly going to help them.

15:34.83

Sam Shirazi

They have you know heavy hitters like President former President Obama has been supporting the redistricting referendum. So I think there are a lot of things going right for the Democrats. I’m not necessarily trying to. freak them out or say that the Republicans are going to win. I’m just trying to kind of lay it out as I see it, that things are not necessarily as much of a slam dunk as 2025.

15:55.30

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, anytime an election is going to be within single digits, which I think there’s a possibility this election is going to be single within single digits, it’s hard to confidently say, you know, one side or another is definitely going win. So I think we’re going to keep an eye on it. I will keep doing these updates on the redistricting referendum. I wanted to do a podcast this time that’s really in the weeds about Virginia elections because my last podcast was a little bit less focused on Virginia, but I want to get back into it, especially now that the redistricting referendums been heating up. And I appreciate everyone who’s been listening. This has been Federal Fallout, and I’ll join you next time.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com