Friday 16th September 2022

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Front end bond yields pushed higher in the US, as shares fell sharply and oil prices fell. The inversion in the yield curve continues to point to a recession with investors clearly expecting a higher terminal rate by the Fed. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets are still reeling from the higher than expected inflation read this week, and much now rests on what Jerome Powell says next week. The picture is muddy, with today’s data releases fairly mixed. US retail sales were up, but the Philly Fed manufacturing index fell, with a big decrease in new orders. We try and make sense of it all in today’s podcast, along with analysis of yesterday’s Australian employment numbers and words on the meeting between Presidents Putin and Xi in Uzbekistan yesterday.

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