Helix

In light of the current macroeconomic outlook, we have been approached by a number of parties, asking how the eco-economics thesis works in a market where the US administration is against environmental and social regulations, and where several companies are dropping their targets.

Our approach remains intact, specifically in this market, given that:

* Most incentives in the ESG space are at the state level, and not federal, so while some environmental regulations might be relaxed, the incentive structure remains intact.

* Companies that drop targets never intended to meet them in the first place. Eco-economics focuses on businesses that make progress, quarter on quarter, over a five-to-ten-year period, so these programs are embedded into the strategy of the firm.

* Having said the above, we actively track companies that drop targets, have ESG / greenwash litigation against them, with a view to taking a short position on these.

* Eco-leaders operate by targeting the younger generations (under 30 age group) who aspire to create a digitally interconnected, sustainable future.

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Good morning/afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our live session. It's great to have our individual and institutional LPs joining us today. As many of you know, our investment thesis is deeply rooted in eco-economics, exploring the intricate relationship between ecological health, social well-being, and economic prosperity, as we consistently highlight here.

Today, we'll dissect recent market movements, look ahead to the key events this week, and discuss how these dynamics align with our long-term eco-economic perspective.

Looking Back: The Last One-Two Weeks

Let's start by reviewing the "Market Pulse" data from our partners, reflecting performance up to June 6th, 2025.

Equity Markets:

* MSCI India: Demonstrated healthy growth, moving from 2,916 on May 30th to 2,957 on June 6th, representing a 1.37% weekly growth. This indicates continued strength in Indian equities.

* Nifty 50: Similarly, the Nifty 50 saw a positive trajectory, climbing from 24,751 to 25,003, for a 1.02% weekly gain.

* MSCI EM (Emerging Markets): Outperformed both, with a notable 2.21% weekly growth, moving from 1,157 to 1,183. This broad-based strength in emerging markets is a significant indicator.

Currency Markets:

* USD/INR: Experienced a slight depreciation of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar, moving from 85.53 to 85.79, a -0.31% change. This modest fluctuation is part of normal currency dynamics.

* JPY/INR: The Japanese Yen strengthened against the Indian Rupee, moving from 0.5937 to 0.5922, a 0.26% change.

Net Flows (USD Bn):

* FII/FPI (Foreign Institutional Investors/Foreign Portfolio Investors): We observed net outflows on a weekly basis (WTD) of $1.17 billion and on a monthly basis (MTD) of $0.42 billion. However, looking at the year-to-date (CYTD) figures, there's a significant net outflow of $15.55 billion. This is a key data point for us to monitor, as FII/FPI flows often reflect global risk sentiment and investment allocation decisions.

* DII (Domestic Institutional Investors): In contrast, DIIs showed strong net inflows across all timeframes: $4.03 billion WTD, $2.97 billion MTD, and a substantial $36.19 billion CYTD. This robust domestic support has been crucial in mitigating the impact of FII/FPI outflows and underscores the growing resilience of the Indian market.

From an eco-economic standpoint, the continued domestic institutional investment is particularly encouraging. It suggests a growing localization of capital and a potential shift towards more sustainable domestic growth models, aligning with the principles of self-sufficiency and endogenous development that are core to our thesis. The strength in emerging markets, especially India, despite some foreign outflows, speaks to the underlying economic activity and potentially the resilience built through diverse economic strategies.

Upcoming Events This Week: June 9th - June 13th, 2025

Now, let's turn our attention to the immediate future and the "High Impact News and Macroeconomic Data" scheduled for this week. Understanding these events is critical for anticipating market volatility and opportunities.

Monday, June 9th (Past):

* 00:50 JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1): This data provides insights into Japan's economic health, a crucial component of global trade and supply chains.

* 02:30 CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May): China's inflation data is vital for assessing global demand and the health of the world's second-largest economy.

Tuesday, June 10th (Today):

* 07:00 GBP Claimant Count Change (May): An indicator of unemployment trends in the UK.

* 07:00 GBP Employment Change (3M) (Apr): Provides a broader view of UK employment.

* 07:00 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Apr): The official unemployment rate for the UK. These UK labor market figures will be closely watched for signals on the Bank of England's monetary policy stance, which can have ripple effects across global markets.

Wednesday, June 11th:

* 13:30 USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (May): Monthly US inflation data, a key driver for Federal Reserve policy.

* 13:30 USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May): Annual US inflation data.

* 13:30 USD Core CPI ex Food & Energy (MoM) (May): Monthly core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices.

* 13:30 USD Core CPI ex Food & Energy (YoY) (May): Annual core inflation. The US CPI data is arguably the most significant economic release this week. Inflation figures will heavily influence expectations for future interest rate hikes or cuts by the Federal Reserve, which can significantly impact global equity, bond, and currency markets. From an eco-economics perspective, persistent inflation could signal imbalances in supply chains or resource allocation, necessitating a closer look at the underlying factors driving these price increases.

Thursday, June 12th:

* 13:30 USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (May): US producer inflation, an early indicator of consumer price trends.

Friday, June 13th:

* 07:00 EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (May): Eurozone inflation data, crucial for the European Central Bank's policy decisions.

* 15:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (June, Prelim): A survey of consumer confidence in the US, which can provide insights into future consumer spending.

Regarding Earnings:

While the provided "High Impact News" calendar focuses on macroeconomic data, it's important to note that specific earnings reports for individual companies would be announced separately and are not typically part of a general macroeconomic calendar. For a detailed earnings outlook, we would rely on dedicated corporate earnings calendars. However, given the current macro environment, we anticipate that companies with strong fundamentals, sustainable business practices, and a clear path to generating value within an eco-economic framework will be best positioned to weather any market volatility. We continue to favor companies that demonstrate:

* Resource Efficiency: Minimizing waste and optimizing resource use.

* Circular Economy Principles: Embracing reuse, recycling, and regeneration.

* Social Equity: Fair labor practices and community engagement.

* Resilience to Climate Risks: Adapting to and mitigating environmental challenges.

Our Eco-Economics Thesis in Context

The data and upcoming events reinforce our eco-economics thesis. The volatility in global markets, driven by inflation concerns and central bank actions, underscores the interconnectedness of our financial systems with real-world economic and environmental factors.

* Inflation and Resource Scarcity: Rising inflation, particularly core inflation, can highlight the strain on global supply chains and potentially signal resource scarcity. Our eco-economics framework emphasizes the need to transition towards more localized, resilient, and resource-efficient economies to mitigate these pressures.

* Domestic Resilience: The strong DII flows in India exemplify a positive trend where domestic capital is increasingly supporting local growth. This aligns with our view that self-reliance and the development of internal economic strengths are crucial for long-term stability and sustainable development.

* Policy and Sustainability: Central bank decisions, influenced by economic data like inflation and employment, have profound implications for capital allocation. We advocate for policies that incentivize sustainable practices and discourage environmentally and socially destructive activities. As LPs, your capital can be a powerful force in directing investment towards these transformative areas.

Conclusion and Q&A

In summary, while we observe normal market fluctuations and anticipate potential volatility from key economic data releases, particularly US CPI, our core eco-economics thesis remains robust. We continue to believe that long-term value creation will increasingly be tied to businesses and economies that prioritize ecological health, social well-being, and sustainable practices. The current market dynamics, far from being a distraction, provide further evidence of the urgent need for this paradigm shift.

We will continue to analyze these trends through the lens of our eco-economics framework, seeking opportunities to deploy capital in ways that generate both financial returns and positive societal impact.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.sowmyvj.com/subscribe

Thank you to everyone who tuned into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.sowmyvj.com/subscribe

Thank you to everyone who tuned into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app, next Tuesday at 11am UK time.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.sowmyvj.com/subscribe

Thank you to everyone who tuned into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.sowmyvj.com/subscribe

We ran a live session, to talk about our Risk and Resilience Framework. We touched upon a few sample trades that we executed in the last six weeks, showing how we were able to achieve the lowest possible drawdown when markets declined.

Sticky inflation, tariff wars, risk of a US recession, and volatile markets. It is a perfect cocktail, if you have the right risk framework built in.

At Helix, risk is not compliance, it is core to our strategy. As a small GP firm, we don’t influence the markets. We learn from it, and we recalibrate constantly.

Please watch the recording to get a full view of our engine working. Message me or call me in case of any questions.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.sowmyvj.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.sowmyvj.com/subscribe

Chapter 10 talks about Financing the Sustainable Transformation, in my book, Eco-Economics, where I take you through a journey of identifying the right mechanisms to fund your sustainability project. Want to learn more, and get a signed copy of the book? Please click here.

If you have a sustainability project that requires finance, why not tell us more about it? We can help secure financing through our partnership with CFB UK.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.sowmyvj.com/subscribe

If you are like me, you weren’t born on third base and haven’t enjoyed the opportunities, and wealth that privilege brings along. Education, for us, is the greatest leveler.

When we were sixteen, and started experiencing the real world around us, we learnt through experiences, and formed our opinions on what we wanted to do in life, where we live, what we buy, and what the future holds for us. I was told the template of study well, get a job, work hard, and retire happily. I saw my parents work hard and have a modest lifestyle. In the nineties when I experienced this, I already knew that the template didn’t work for most people.

Fast forward to 2024, and my son is sixteen, and is entering that phase of life. The next 15 years are going to define how he shapes his future. So will it be, for your son/ daughter if you have one.

These 15 years, until the age of thirty, when the preferences are fully formed, are what I call the formative years. The goods, services and experiences that cater to this age group is the formative years economy.

The companies that target this age group (frankly few global brands look at them), have the lowest customer acquisition cost, and the highest lifetime value.

That’s the topic of today’s video post. For more information, please visit our website, helix.earth

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.sowmyvj.com/subscribe