(Featuring Dave Bragg, Co-Head, Strategic Research, Green Street)

Uncertainty surrounding remote work and politics suggest a wide range of potential outcomes for big cities, which may upend the long-running megatrend toward urbanization.

https://www.afire.org/podcast/herdcommunitycast/

The rise or fall of a city is tough to foresee and impossible to forecast with precision, but history suggests that investors keep an open mind about the future. This is particularly the case today as work-from-home (WFH), fiscal health, and politics may portend de-urbanization, which would carry implications for both gateway and Sun Belt markets, as well as urban/suburban dynamics within metro areas.

Post-COVID Flexible WFH policies will allow some employees to relocate. The WFH revelation has also increased comfort in operating a workforce distributed across multiple offices. The spread between Sun Belt and gateway market office-using job growth spiked last year to its highest level in two decades. The biggest winners are places with high WFH utilization rates, based on our metric comparing the pre-COVID propensity to work remotely and an employee’s ability to do so.

On this episode of the AFIRE Podcast, David Bragg discusses the future of commercial real estate markets as migration continues nationwide. As Sun Belt cities and suburbs benefit from the movement, commercial real estate prices are likely to improve dramatically. This podcast is based on the article "Herd Community" from Summit Journal (Summer 2021).