What is the future of the built environment? The National Building Museum in Washington, DC, where AFIRE members tour this week during our Winter Conference, is a museum about the world we design and build. The museum’s exhibits celebrate building architecture, design, engineering, construction—and the act of urban planning. But most of all, it’s a showcase for the imagination and ambitions of those who help create what we call real estate. In this podcast, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson interviews James Ball, the National Building Museum’s director of future cities, about the past, present and future of the structures we exist in every day. This conversation is geared to people who invest in developing buildings around the world.

LINKS

To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences:

Winter Conference 2026 in Washington, DC

https://www.afire.org/events/wc2026/

Summer Conference 2026 in Tokyo

https://www.afire.org/events/tokyo26/

Find the National Building Museum on the web here:

https://nbm.org/

Ball discusses the NBM’s new exhibit, Coming Together:

https://nbm.org/exhibitions/coming-together/

The NBM’s online initiative, I Hope This Becomes:

https://ihopethisbecomes.nbm.org/

Discussed during the episode was Donella Meadows, the environmental scientist behind The Limits of Growth:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donella_Meadows

KEY MOMENTS

00:00 Introductions

01:30 What is the National Building Museum?

03:05 Role of built environment in society

05:30 History of the building that houses the NBM

07:58 How our built world shapes us

09:41 Future of the city

11:50 Starchitect fallacy and the genius theory of urban planning

14:44 New NBM exhibit: Coming together

18:02 Destructive development narratives

21:20 How to make buildings beautiful

23:50 Museums’ role in real estate

26:01 Role of the building user

28:25 City as a multi-generational yet still incomplete project

30:25 Message to building industry

33:50 New moment in city building

35:18 AFIRE visits the NBM

36:20 Wrap up

Can office buildings from the 1970s and 80s–often dismissed as "garbage”—be the key to solving the US housing crisis? While conventional wisdom says these deep-floor-plate structures are "useless" and that we need to "scrape" them all, Robert Seldin, Managing Principal of Madison Highland and developer of the Three Collective complex in Falls Church, Virginia, has proven the skeptics wrong. In this episode timed to appear before the AFIRE Winter Conference tours Three Collective, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson explores the right way to convert office to residential, and how one "impossible" asset became profitable.

LINKS

To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences:

Winter Conference 2026 in Washington, DC

https://www.afire.org/events/wc2026/

Summer Conference 2026 in Tokyo

https://www.afire.org/events/tokyo26/

Seldin is the Managing Principal of Madison Highland and developer of Three Collective:

https://www.threecollective.com/

Madison Highland is a developer of Three Collective:

https://www.threecollective.com/

KEY MOMENTS

0:00 – Are 1970s office buildings too "useless" to convert?

2:30 – What makes a mid-century office building a good "substrate" for housing?

4:37 – How do you solve deep floor plate issues in office-to-residential conversions?

7:02 – Why is converted office space higher quality than new wood-frame construction?

10:02 – How can you repurpose extra office elevators during a conversion?

13:43 – Do office-to-residential conversions have enough parking?

18:40 – How is remote work changing multifamily building requirements?

22:35 – What is the cost and timeline for an office-to-apartment conversion?

26:38 – How fast do converted office apartments lease up?

28:10 – Is the office conversion trend the new "Soho Loft" revolution?

How will demographics affect commercial real estate investing? How will changes in generational characteristics affect opportunities in US property markets? Neil Howe is an author of The Fourth Turning and The Fourth Turning is Here. An expert in generational demographics who is credited as one of the coiners of the term “millennial”, Howe discusses the cycles of history and their implications for cross-border investors in this wide-ranging conversation with AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson.

LINKS

To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences:

Winter Conference 2026 in Washington, DC

https://www.afire.org/events/wc2026/

Summer Conference 2026 in Tokyo

https://www.afire.org/events/tokyo26/

Watch Neil Howe’s POV

https://youtu.be/qFm_tFmgBj8

Recent Neil Howe books include:

The Fourth Turning

https://www.amazon.com/s?k=the+fourth+turning

The Fourth Turning Is Here

https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734/

The thinking behind Howe’s theories on the cycles of history:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory

Howe is the managing director of demography at Hedgeye Risk Management:

https://app.hedgeye.com/

KEY MOMENTS

00:00 – How demographics is one of the most powerful factors for investors.

00:54 – Who is Neil Howe?

01:25 – Why is Neil Howe thinking about Investing and future casting?

02:35 – Can the meaning of being 60 change over time?

02:57 – What are the origins of generational demography?

04:02 – Did we overestimate long-term care this decade?

05:05 – Will home-oriented care redefine the future of healthcare?

06:28 – Could Gen X be America’s next leadership generation?

07:55 – Do crises reform the cycles of American history?

08:20 – Are infrastructure-related investments shaped by dark periods?

09:06 – How did the Great Depression and WWII shape generations?

14:25 – Are we entering a new era of anti-globalization?

16:37 – Are we entering the Fourth Turning now?

17:12 – Are nations hoarding resources to prepare for crisis?

18:32 – What are the hallmarks of the late Fourth Turning?

21:55 – How can real estate investors respond to rising inflation?

22:47 – Can inflation be controlled in a de-globalizing world?

23:07 – Why can’t we effectively tackle inflation politically?

24:53 – Is winning the US election now more important than governance?

25:50 – Are voters settling for “not the other guy”?

26:10 – What steps lead to renewed community today?

27:07 – Can understanding history guide today's investments?

29:15 – Why does Southern migration keep accelerating?

32:09 – Are rising risks changing Sun Belt investments?

35:45 – Can old lake cities thrive again?

36:30 – Is the lack of public education a deal-breaker for families?

39:23 – Are pension costs the hidden urban challenge?

40:46 – What’s driving rural decline but urban stability?

44:54 – How does age influence where people choose to live?

50:41 – Are we building the right types of housing for today?

The One Big Beautiful Bill is now signed into law, prompting questions about tax risks, retaliatory measures, and impacts on U.S. real estate. So what does it all mean for cross-border investors in property markets?

AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson sat down with DLA Piper tax partner Shiukay Hung to discuss the impact of the bill. “The Big Beautiful Bill is a very interesting piece of legislation,” says Hung, “Perhaps it's one of the few tax legislations in recent memory that came with a lot of tax drama.”

The bill, which aimed to maintain tax cuts, proposed a 50% retaliatory tax on foreign investors from countries with unfair tax practices, and could have significantly affected investment returns. Despite initial concerns, the retaliatory tax provision, Section 899, was dropped before passing.

Now that the bill is law, how should cross-border investors weigh domestic tax exemptions against international treaties, and what role does the bond market play in shaping policy? It’s all in the latest episode of the AFIRE podcast.

LINKS

Register for the 2025 AFIRE Annual Member Meeting Sept. 9-10 in NYC https://www.afire.org/events/amm25/

Read Shiukay’s paper on the Big Beautiful Bill

https://www.dlapiper.com/en-ca/insights/publications/2025/06/litigation-funding-tax-and-retaliatory-tax

Watch the AFIRE POV series of investor interviews

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOrtO-j6M9aS8Hr7DHeg562A8-HQrxi8o

Read the latest articles from Summit Journal Issue #18

https://www.afire.org/summit/

Access the episode webpage featuring links to audio-only platforms here:

https://www.afire.org/podcast/202515cast/

KEY MOMENTS

00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro

01:43 Welcome Shiukay Hung, Partner & Co-Chair, DLA Piper

01:51 Cross-border investor concerns

03:55 How big was the retaliatory tax threat?

06:26 What does the bill mean now?

08:31 Section 899 is gone, but the risk remains

11:45 What should investors be paying attention to?

13:45 Can the bond market keep us in check?

16:43 Who really influenced policy?

19:43 What investors are missing?

22:16 Final remarks

For the first time ever, New York City Economic Development Corporation is staging a special Investor Summit in collaboration with AFIRE for international institutional capital that's focused on US property investing. With the summit in mind, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson sat down with chief operating officer of NYCEDC, Melissa Román Burch, for a pulse check on New York City’s CRE environment.

“New York City is an engine that is always thinking about growth,” says Burch. Currently, New York City Mayor Eric Adams has set a goal of creating 500,000 housing units over the next 10 years, with roughly 30,000 units expected to come from office-to-residential conversions. Meanwhile, two new trophy office skyscrapers have broken ground, totaling about 2 million square feet of new infrastructure. Looking ahead, the city projects 400,000 green-collar jobs by 2040, underscoring New York’s commitment to both economic growth and sustainability.

The conversation covers the key sectors driving momentum—office, housing, energy, and transportation—while also asking the bigger questions: Where are the opportunities hiding? How will office-to-residential conversions reshape neighborhoods? And what will New York look like in five years?

LINKS

Register for the 2025 AFIRE Annual Member Meeting Sept. 9-10 in NYC

https://www.afire.org/events/amm25/

Learn more about NYCEDC’s Business Development team

https://choose.nyc/

Register for AFIRE/NYCEDC Investor Summit

https://www.afire.org/uncategorized/amm25summitreg/

Watch the AFIRE POV series of investor interviews

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOrtO-j6M9aS8Hr7DHeg562A8-HQrxi8o

Read the latest articles from Summit Journal Issue #18

https://www.afire.org/summit/

Access the episode webpage featuring links to audio-only platforms here:

https://www.afire.org/podcast/202514cast/

KEY MOMENTS

00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro

01:23 Welcome back, Melissa Román Burch, COO of NYCEDC

01:48 AFIRE/NYCEDC Investor Summit Invitation

03:37 Pulse check: what’s happening in NYC?

06:51 How is NYC handling housing shortages?

12:57 How much will NYC change in the next 5 years?

16:14 What’s most exciting for institutional investors?

19:46 Is NYC just a financial center?

23:45 Connecting Brooklyn to the mainland

28:31 How are people reacting to the congestion pricing system?

33:17 What’s happening with green energy?

37:11 What can investors expect in NYC over the next decade?

41:30 Final remarks

Geopolitics is rewriting the rules for commercial real estate investors. Can understanding history’s patterns be the key to figuring out what’s coming next?

Who better to answer the question than Chair of War Studies at the U.S. Army War College, Michael Neiberg, who uses his expertise of Europe and the U.S. from 1914-1945 to offer valuable insights into today’s global challenges by drawing parallels with the early 20th century.

“What we're dealing with now is not the same as other time periods,” Neiberg explains when discussing some of the economic parallels of the 1930s, which can “lead you down some pretty terrifying places, if you let them.” Instead, Neiberg shares some comforting news: “We are in some ways reverting to the norm.”

This episode of the AFIRE podcast helps investors and strategists rethink their approaches amid a world that’s far less predictable than it once was.

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

LINKS

Take the AFIRE H2 2025 investor survey www.afire.org/survey/h22025invite/

Register for the AFIRE Annual Member Meeting www.afire.org/events/amm25/

Watch the AFIRE POV series of investor interviews www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLO…DHeg562A8-HQrxi8o

Read the latest articles from Summit Journal Issue #18 www.afire.org/summit/

Access the episode webpage featuring links to audio-only platforms here:

www.afire.org/podcast/202512cast/

KEY MOMENTS

00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro

01:23 Meet Michael Neiberg, Chair of War Studies, US Army War College

02:23 How does today’s pullback compare to the 20th century?

05:52 How should investors handle less free global trade?

09:13 How have politics and economics connected?

11:38 Important lessons from early 20th-century tech

12:59 How is governance changing?

15:45 Does history show that communication is key?

We’ve entered a new era of geopolitics. From globalization and free trade stabilized by American soft power, we’re now in a more transactional period characterized by nation states weaponizing their economies with tariffs, a global leadership vacuum and greater competition among the superpowers. So should this affect cross-border investment strategies? And can earlier periods in history teach us lessons about what to expect in future?

Yes to both, says Jonathan Boff, who may be the perfect person to turn for guidance. Boff has a CV that straddles the domains of business and history, as a former investment banker who is now a professor of military history at the University of Birmingham.

“My instinct is that we need to be aware of over-catastrophizing too soon,” says Boff in conversation with AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson. Boff suggests looking for lessons in the period immediately after the First World War, when the world transitioned from global free trade to another era of tariffs and trade barriers. In addition, Boff and Branson discuss the dangers represented by a weaker, more politically-beholden Federal Reserve, the need for more positive economic strategies; and the ways investors can prepare for highly unpredictable global events.

LINKS

Jonathan Boff’s book, Haig’s Enemy: Crown Prince Rupprecht and Germany’s War on the Western Front https://www.amazon.ca/s?k=9780199670475&i=stripbooks&linkCode=qs

Take the AFIRE H2 2025 investor survey https://www.afire.org/survey/h22025invite/

Register for the AFIRE Annual Member Meeting https://www.afire.org/events/amm25/

Watch the AFIRE POV series of investor interviews https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOrtO-j6M9aS8Hr7DHeg562A8-HQrxi8o

Read the latest articles from Summit Journal Issue #18 https://www.afire.org/summit/

Access the episode webpage featuring links to audio-only platforms here:

https://www.afire.org/podcast/202512cast/

KEY MOMENTS

00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro

00:53 Meet Jonathan Boff, Professor of Military History, University of Birmingham

01:46 What should investors focus on amid global conflicts?

05:11 How do we connect politics and global economic interests?

15:34 What can we expect from US-implemented tariffs?

20:38 What should investors know about unpredictable international markets?

26:35 How should investors go about trusting the Fed?

32:43 What most get wrong about military conflicts’ economic impact

Despite geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions, the US economy remains strong, says our latest guest on the AFIRE podcast: Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi, the recipient of the Consensus Economics 2024 Forecast Accuracy Award. “So far, the data shows yellow flares everywhere,” Zandi observes. “But no red flares yet.”

In conversation with AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson, Zandi shares his views on the way trade tensions will affect the broader economy, as well as US commercial real estate specifically. The pair also discuss a forthcoming Moody’s study on the housing shortage, hotspots in the US CRE market and how ESG and DEI discussions are evolving under the new administration. The conversation concludes with Zandi worrying that the dissolution of Fed independence could set the stage for much higher inflation.

“I do think the economy is resilient,” Zandi says. “We should be able to navigate through and, you know, we could be in a very different place a year or two down the road.”

Access the episode webpage featuring links to audio-only platforms here:

https://www.afire.org/podcast/202511cast/

The US needs nearly 4 million homes. That’s a deficit that’s been decades in the making. Years’ worth of zoning restriction pile-ups, underbuilding, and policy interference have hindered the ability to plan, build, and maintain affordable homes across America.

“We're putting requirements in place before we have the foundational infrastructure in place to provide it,” says CEO of Up for Growth Mike Kingsella during the latest episode of the AFIRE podcast.

At the same time, the country’s energy infrastructure is straining to keep pace, not only with the increased demand in data centers to fuel AI, but also to supply energy at home.

So to solve the affordability and energy problem, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson and Kingsella discuss how to untangle the legacy decisions that got the U.S. where it is in housing, and how to prevent the same pattern in energy.

Neville Rhone, Jr. is the co-founder and managing partner at Arc Capital Partners, a leading institutional real estate owner and investment manager. Arc is focussed on converting mixed-use properties instead of tearing down and building new. Rhone also is someone who’s poised to find opportunities in challenging environments.

So where are these opportunities hiding? ”Everything that we do is in the middle market,” says Rhone, who goes on to explain that the middle market is often overlooked. “Blackstone is not paying attention to it; Brookfield is not paying attention to it.” The middle market often is “too complicated for the smaller investors,” so they also miss out on great opportunities.

In Neville Rhone, Jr.’s compelling conversation with AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson, the two men discuss where the best investment opportunities are hiding in 2025—and why a fresh perspective on investments in this upcoming cycle is so beneficial.

Key Moments

00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro.

01:02 Branson introduces Neville Rhone, Jr. Managing Partner at Arc Capital Partners

02:12 Where are the best opportunities for attainable housing?

06:12 How does Arc approach infill urban areas and create more attainable market-rate housing?

11:07 How does Arc encourage thinking about unconventional investment opportunities in a challenging environment?

15:42 How does Rhone help investors understand that this middle-market approach is a wise, risk-adjusted approach?

26:24 Why should building owners care about sustainability in their investment approach?

29:43 Where are the opportunities hiding in 2025?