The AFIRE Podcast

Japanese investors now own about 6% of the US home-construction market, according to the Wall Street Journal,, and Japan-linked investors have purchased at least $2.1B worth of NYC real estate since 2024.

What’s clear is that amidst geopolitical volatility and shifting global economic dynamics, cross-border capital flows are changing. Cross-border real estate investment into the United States from Europe and Canada is slowing, while Asian capital activity—particularly from Japan—is increasing. So what does that mean for other investors in US commercial real estate?

In this episode of the AFIRE Podcast, host Gunnar Branson checks in with two experts on Asian capital from Cushman & Wakefield: Gordon Marsden, the firm’s head of global capital, APAC & EMEA, and Marc Royer, the firm’s managing director, global capital advisory.

Together, they explore the key drivers behind Asian capital deployment in US property markets. They discuss some of the attributes that differentiate Japanese investment strategies relative to those of other countries. And they describe how Japanese investors navigate currency volatility and structural changes, as well as the evolving sophistication of Asia-Pacific institutional investors.

LINKS

Japan Is Placing a Multibillion-Dollar Bet on the U.S. Housing Market: Wall Street Journal

https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/japan-is-placing-a-multibillion-dollar-bet-on-the-u-s-housing-market-2ced2a01

Why Japanese Capital Is Moving Into U.S. Real Estate Markets: America Mortgages

https://www.americamortgages.com/japanese-moving-into-us-real-estate/

Japanese investors rush to buy NYC multifamily: The Real Deal

https://therealdeal.com/new-york/2026/04/29/japanese-buyers-become-driving-force-of-nyc-multifamily/

To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences:

https://www.afire.org/events/

KEY MOMENTS

00:00 Introduction

01:09 Japanese Capital in US Markets

03:45 Evolving Investment Models

05:35 Structural Capital Origins

07:32 Demographics and Diversification

08:35 Knowledge Acquisition Strategies

09:19 Managing Currency Volatility

13:08 Long-Term Portfolio Allocation

14:55 Relationship-Driven Investing

18:00 Regional Investor Sophistication

21:02 Asia-Pacific Regional Investment Trends

24:48 Shared Market Lessons

27:12 Common Investor Misconceptions

30:23 Regional Infrastructure Demand

33:02 Future Outlook

DISCLAIMER

The publisher of the AFIRE Podcast is not engaged in providing tax, accounting, or legal advice through this publication. No content published in the AFIRE Podcast is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Some information included in the AFIRE Podcast has been obtained from third-party sources considered to be reliable, though the publisher is not responsible for guaranteeing the accuracy of third-party information. The opinions expressed in the AFIRE Podcast are those of its respective contributors and sources and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher.

Things don't always work out the way we expect. And in fact, many of AFIRE’s institutional investors mark their resilience as leaders in terms of how many downturns they’ve weathered. So how do the best leaders, and the best organizations, manage failure? What systems do they have in place to analyze mistakes and improve in the future?

Donald Sheets, lecturer in real estate at the Harvard Graduate School of Design, studies failure as an academic discipline. In this conversation with AFIRE CEO and podcast host Gunnar Branson, Sheets describes what separates successful, resilient investment funds, and how they deal with failure, from those who keep making the same mistakes over time.

Note: This podcast is being published in conjunction with Donald Sheets’ essay on failure in AFIRE’s latest Summit Journal, which will be distributed at our Annual Member Meeting on Sept. 15-17, 2026, in New York City.

LINKS

Donald Sheets writes about organizational judgment in the latest Summit Journal:

https://www.afire.org/summit/nextdecision/

He's also speaking on distressed investing, capital markets and leadership at the upcoming Annual Member Meeting in New York City on Sept. 15-17, 2026. Register for the AMM:

https://www.afire.org/events/amm2026/

Check out the agenda for the AFIRE Annual Member Meeting here:

https://www.afire.org/events/amm2026/#agenda

Learn more about Donald Sheets here:

https://www.gsd.harvard.edu/person/donald-sheets/

Donald Sheets is on LinkedIn:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/donald-d-sheets-b4ab62343/

KEY MOMENTS

00:00 Predicting the future

01:44 Introducing Donald Sheets

02:53 Industry silver linings

05:51 Defining failure neutrality

09:34 The medical precedent

10:38 The aviation example

12:08 Retrospective business analysis

13:51 Reframing for success

13:42 Analytical evaluation tools

14:12 The garbage analogy

16:48 Evaluating radical success

15:07 Managing analytical bias

24:23 Incremental organizational steps

31:13 Secondary vs primary

32:29 Deepening sensitivity analysis

In an environment when everyone in US commercial real estate is basically making the same pitch, why are some firms more successful than others at raising capital? Why are some firms more successful than others at getting the deal?

In this episode, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson discusses these questions with the founder, chairman and CEO of Institutional Real Estate Inc., Geoffrey Dohrmann. Branson and Dohrmann decide the key involves relationships and trust, and discuss ways to meet the challenge of building trust across international borders and between investors.

Also on the agenda: Wisdom from commencement speeches! Marathon Man star Laurence Olivier’s advice to Dustin Hoffman! And what a catchphrase from one of Geoffrey Dohrmann’s old girlfriends has to do with relationship building in CRE.

LINKS

Geoffrey Dohrmann LinkedIn

https://www.linkedin.com/in/geoffrey-dohrmann-cre-9b2b5a2/

Institutional Real Estate Inc. website

https://irei.com/

Dustin Hoffman on Laurence Olivier’s advice in Marathon Man

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fodPlCp-28c

IREI podcast with Bob Sessa on how LPs evaluate leadership

https://irei.com/video-and-podcast/nextgen-capital-conversations-episode-4-talent-and-retention/

Steve Jobs’ 2005 Stanford commencement speech

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF8uR6Z6KLc

Blackstone president Jon Gray’s 2023 commencement speech

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7fKDtOqZOY

To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences:

https://www.afire.org/events/

KEY MOMENTS

00:00 Marketing vs success

01:40 Guest introduction

04:08 Winning through trust

06:10 Inclusion and actions

10:39 Best practices

14:34 Ego and leadership

17:36 Ownership and accountability

21:24 Asset liability managers

31:49 Obi-Wan Kenobi comparison

34:26 Fiduciary financial objectives

38:26 Brand building asset

39:38 Commencement speeches

43:13 Success and relationships

A nationwide housing crisis is pricing out millions of would-be homeowners. Conventional wisdom suggests the problem is demand, as in, too much of it. But what if the problem instead involves the supply side of the equation — namely, how and where we build?

In conversation with Tony Avila of Avila Real Estate Capital, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson explores why attainable single-family homes are so scarce. The reasons include decade-long entitlement battles and loopy land loans that most institutions hope to avoid. Avila explains how his firm funds regional developers and partners with major homebuilders, while targeting the “sweet spot” of American incomes.

Also on the agenda: Migration trends, policy missteps and why the next decade is shaping up to be the world’s biggest housing construction opportunity.

LINKS

Visit the Avila Real Estate Capital website

https://www.avilacapllc.com/

To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences:

Summer Conference 2026 in Tokyo

https://www.afire.org/events/tokyo26/

KEY MOMENTS

00:00 – Why housing feels impossible for many right now

00:36 – Welcome to the AFIRE Podcast

00:49 – Meet Tony Avila

01:15 – What’s driving the home affordability crunch

02:06 – Entitlements that take decades

03:54 – Funding local land developers

04:24 – Why land loans are so hard

05:19 – Developers turned specialist lenders

06:19 – Working with institutional capital

09:26 – Builders as LPs and takeout buyers

11:10 – Biggest risks to housing projects

12:43 – Rates, war and buyer confidence

15:39 – Do millennials really hate owning?

17:35 – 8 million homes in 10 years

19:03 – Where new homes should be built

How can investors gain a competitive edge when seeking deals in the hospitality sector? How can hotels use AI to improve the guest experience? And how can hospitality operators use AI to run hotels more efficiently? AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson explores the topic with the co-founder and managing partner of AWH Partners, Russ Flicker, about how his $2 billion hospitality platform leverages proprietary data and AI to make smarter decisions. When used correctly, Flicker says, AI can help investors to focus on the right deals, optimize operations, and enhance the guest experience. The idea is to turn information into actionable insight and competitive advantage.

LINKS

Visit the AWH Partners website

https://www.awhpartners.com/

To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences:

Summer Conference 2026 in Tokyo

https://www.afire.org/events/tokyo26/

KEY MOMENTS

00:00 Introduction

00:57 Russ Flicker on AWH Partners

01:45 AI and data-driven hospitality investing

02:56 Submarket focus vs. traditional comp sets

05:00 Evaluating hotel metrics and amenities

06:33 Balancing gut instinct and data

09:14 Building a data-first culture

12:28 Hospitality market trends

15:05 Transaction constraints and rising costs

16:59 AI for deal focus and operational efficiency

18:22 AI in revenue and guest experience

21:36 Understanding customer behavior

24:40 Privacy, data protection, and AI tools

27:45 Future outlook for hospitality

29:43 Closing remarks

What happens when uncertainty shakes the global economy, and investors start questioning where to put their money? In this episode, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson talks with Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi about slowing job growth, shifting trade and immigration policies, and the market volatility that has investors eyeing gold, silver, crypto, and real estate. Zandi highlights both the risks of a potential recession and the opportunities in U.S. commercial real estate, where prices have corrected significantly. The near term may present “bouts of real anxiety,” says Zandi, but in the long term, he adds, “I’m confident that we’ll be fine.”

LINKS

Mentioned in the episode:

Trump taps ex-Fed insider Warsh to lead world's top central bank

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-picks-former-fed-official-warsh-run-fed-2026-01-30/

To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences:

Summer Conference 2026 in Tokyo

https://www.afire.org/events/tokyo26/

KEY MOMENTS

00:00 Introduction

00:36 Market uncertainty and investor confusion

00:56 Mark Zandi’s background and perspective

02:19 Humility in today’s economy

03:24 De-globalization and safe-haven assets

05:45 U.S. commercial real estate as opportunity

07:21 CRE market corrections and valuations

08:59 Relative attractiveness for international investors

10:29 Single-family rental market overview

11:54 Affordability challenges and workforce housing

14:37 Local variations and political complexity

15:16 Job growth stall and recession risk

17:33 Fed rate cuts and policy pressures

20:24 Long-term rates and equilibrium forecasts

22:22 Inflation concerns and consumer impact

25:35 AI, tech investment, and data center boom

26:42 Potential bubbles and market corrections

30:06 Long-term growth perspective for real estate

31:06 Bumps ahead: cyber events and AI oversight

32:35 Optimism: U.S. economy resilience

34:06 Historical perspective and maintaining cool heads

What is the future of the built environment? The National Building Museum in Washington, DC, where AFIRE members tour this week during our Winter Conference, is a museum about the world we design and build. The museum’s exhibits celebrate building architecture, design, engineering, construction—and the act of urban planning. But most of all, it’s a showcase for the imagination and ambitions of those who help create what we call real estate. In this podcast, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson interviews James Ball, the National Building Museum’s director of future cities, about the past, present and future of the structures we exist in every day. This conversation is geared to people who invest in developing buildings around the world.

LINKS

To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences:

Winter Conference 2026 in Washington, DC

https://www.afire.org/events/wc2026/

Summer Conference 2026 in Tokyo

https://www.afire.org/events/tokyo26/

Find the National Building Museum on the web here:

https://nbm.org/

Ball discusses the NBM’s new exhibit, Coming Together:

https://nbm.org/exhibitions/coming-together/

The NBM’s online initiative, I Hope This Becomes:

https://ihopethisbecomes.nbm.org/

Discussed during the episode was Donella Meadows, the environmental scientist behind The Limits of Growth:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donella_Meadows

KEY MOMENTS

00:00 Introductions

01:30 What is the National Building Museum?

03:05 Role of built environment in society

05:30 History of the building that houses the NBM

07:58 How our built world shapes us

09:41 Future of the city

11:50 Starchitect fallacy and the genius theory of urban planning

14:44 New NBM exhibit: Coming together

18:02 Destructive development narratives

21:20 How to make buildings beautiful

23:50 Museums’ role in real estate

26:01 Role of the building user

28:25 City as a multi-generational yet still incomplete project

30:25 Message to building industry

33:50 New moment in city building

35:18 AFIRE visits the NBM

36:20 Wrap up

Can office buildings from the 1970s and 80s–often dismissed as "garbage”—be the key to solving the US housing crisis? While conventional wisdom says these deep-floor-plate structures are "useless" and that we need to "scrape" them all, Robert Seldin, Managing Principal of Madison Highland and developer of the Three Collective complex in Falls Church, Virginia, has proven the skeptics wrong. In this episode timed to appear before the AFIRE Winter Conference tours Three Collective, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson explores the right way to convert office to residential, and how one "impossible" asset became profitable.

LINKS

To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences:

Winter Conference 2026 in Washington, DC

https://www.afire.org/events/wc2026/

Summer Conference 2026 in Tokyo

https://www.afire.org/events/tokyo26/

Seldin is the Managing Principal of Madison Highland and developer of Three Collective:

https://www.threecollective.com/

Madison Highland is a developer of Three Collective:

https://www.threecollective.com/

KEY MOMENTS

0:00 – Are 1970s office buildings too "useless" to convert?

2:30 – What makes a mid-century office building a good "substrate" for housing?

4:37 – How do you solve deep floor plate issues in office-to-residential conversions?

7:02 – Why is converted office space higher quality than new wood-frame construction?

10:02 – How can you repurpose extra office elevators during a conversion?

13:43 – Do office-to-residential conversions have enough parking?

18:40 – How is remote work changing multifamily building requirements?

22:35 – What is the cost and timeline for an office-to-apartment conversion?

26:38 – How fast do converted office apartments lease up?

28:10 – Is the office conversion trend the new "Soho Loft" revolution?

How will demographics affect commercial real estate investing? How will changes in generational characteristics affect opportunities in US property markets? Neil Howe is an author of The Fourth Turning and The Fourth Turning is Here. An expert in generational demographics who is credited as one of the coiners of the term “millennial”, Howe discusses the cycles of history and their implications for cross-border investors in this wide-ranging conversation with AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson.

LINKS

To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences:

Winter Conference 2026 in Washington, DC

https://www.afire.org/events/wc2026/

Summer Conference 2026 in Tokyo

https://www.afire.org/events/tokyo26/

Watch Neil Howe’s POV

https://youtu.be/qFm_tFmgBj8

Recent Neil Howe books include:

The Fourth Turning

https://www.amazon.com/s?k=the+fourth+turning

The Fourth Turning Is Here

https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734/

The thinking behind Howe’s theories on the cycles of history:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory

Howe is the managing director of demography at Hedgeye Risk Management:

https://app.hedgeye.com/

KEY MOMENTS

00:00 – How demographics is one of the most powerful factors for investors.

00:54 – Who is Neil Howe?

01:25 – Why is Neil Howe thinking about Investing and future casting?

02:35 – Can the meaning of being 60 change over time?

02:57 – What are the origins of generational demography?

04:02 – Did we overestimate long-term care this decade?

05:05 – Will home-oriented care redefine the future of healthcare?

06:28 – Could Gen X be America’s next leadership generation?

07:55 – Do crises reform the cycles of American history?

08:20 – Are infrastructure-related investments shaped by dark periods?

09:06 – How did the Great Depression and WWII shape generations?

14:25 – Are we entering a new era of anti-globalization?

16:37 – Are we entering the Fourth Turning now?

17:12 – Are nations hoarding resources to prepare for crisis?

18:32 – What are the hallmarks of the late Fourth Turning?

21:55 – How can real estate investors respond to rising inflation?

22:47 – Can inflation be controlled in a de-globalizing world?

23:07 – Why can’t we effectively tackle inflation politically?

24:53 – Is winning the US election now more important than governance?

25:50 – Are voters settling for “not the other guy”?

26:10 – What steps lead to renewed community today?

27:07 – Can understanding history guide today's investments?

29:15 – Why does Southern migration keep accelerating?

32:09 – Are rising risks changing Sun Belt investments?

35:45 – Can old lake cities thrive again?

36:30 – Is the lack of public education a deal-breaker for families?

39:23 – Are pension costs the hidden urban challenge?

40:46 – What’s driving rural decline but urban stability?

44:54 – How does age influence where people choose to live?

50:41 – Are we building the right types of housing for today?

The One Big Beautiful Bill is now signed into law, prompting questions about tax risks, retaliatory measures, and impacts on U.S. real estate. So what does it all mean for cross-border investors in property markets?

AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson sat down with DLA Piper tax partner Shiukay Hung to discuss the impact of the bill. “The Big Beautiful Bill is a very interesting piece of legislation,” says Hung, “Perhaps it's one of the few tax legislations in recent memory that came with a lot of tax drama.”

The bill, which aimed to maintain tax cuts, proposed a 50% retaliatory tax on foreign investors from countries with unfair tax practices, and could have significantly affected investment returns. Despite initial concerns, the retaliatory tax provision, Section 899, was dropped before passing.

Now that the bill is law, how should cross-border investors weigh domestic tax exemptions against international treaties, and what role does the bond market play in shaping policy? It’s all in the latest episode of the AFIRE podcast.

LINKS

Register for the 2025 AFIRE Annual Member Meeting Sept. 9-10 in NYC https://www.afire.org/events/amm25/

Read Shiukay’s paper on the Big Beautiful Bill

https://www.dlapiper.com/en-ca/insights/publications/2025/06/litigation-funding-tax-and-retaliatory-tax

Watch the AFIRE POV series of investor interviews

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOrtO-j6M9aS8Hr7DHeg562A8-HQrxi8o

Read the latest articles from Summit Journal Issue #18

https://www.afire.org/summit/

Access the episode webpage featuring links to audio-only platforms here:

https://www.afire.org/podcast/202515cast/

KEY MOMENTS

00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro

01:43 Welcome Shiukay Hung, Partner & Co-Chair, DLA Piper

01:51 Cross-border investor concerns

03:55 How big was the retaliatory tax threat?

06:26 What does the bill mean now?

08:31 Section 899 is gone, but the risk remains

11:45 What should investors be paying attention to?

13:45 Can the bond market keep us in check?

16:43 Who really influenced policy?

19:43 What investors are missing?

22:16 Final remarks