The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons breaks down the key takeaways and highlights from the first batch of Q3'26 earnings calls from the apartment and single-family rental REITs, led by MAA, Essex, UDR and Invitation Homes. Key highlights include strong demand and increased renewal rent growth, as some REITs report continued growth in retention rates despite higher renewal rent increases and an abundance of alternative rental options in many areas. Jay also covers highlights on capital markets, including REITs' takes on the impact of higher interest rates on pricing, and implications on new development. Other highlights include UDR's new partnership with Apollo, improving rent affordability tailwinds and why 95.5% occupancy is a magic number for MAA. Later in the program, Jay welcomes in the CEO of the nation's second-largest apartment REIT by unit count, Brad Hill of MAA. Jay and Brad discuss the recovery of the Sun Belt, the outlook ahead, the case for new development at a time when few others are building, and the flight to quality trend among renters. Also in this episode, Jay shares his view on The Wall Street Journal's reporting of Brookfield handing back the keys on its Downtown L.A. apartment tower, gives his hot take on the impact of the mid-term elections, and discusses CoStar's upward revision of their rent forecast.

The higher-for-longer narrative is now the higher-for-longer reality, as this week's guest, Trepp's Lonnie Hendry, puts it. How will recent rate hikes impact rents and the multifamily capital markets? Rental housing economist Jay Parsons lays out the possible scenario where the high rate environment leads to higher rent inflation, thereby becoming a thorn in the side for the Fed in its quest to tame inflation. That's because rate hikes have only cooled rental housing supply, but not demand, with 2026 so far ranking among the hottest years on record for apartment absorption. Rent re-acceleration isn't a slam dunk, as Jay notes, but it's a plausible scenario as developers struggle to get equity for new development projects. Later in the program, Jay and Lonnie discuss impacts on multifamily and BTR capital markets. Will higher rates lead to a wave of defaults and foreclosures? Will cap rates rise with rates? What segments of the market are most vulnerable? Lonnie shares his take on why a worst-case scenario is unlikely, and why most distress on the equity side, not debt. Additionally, as always, Jay breaks down the latest headlines in rental housing, including the Treasury's proposed rules around SFR and BTR stemming from the ROAD legislation, UDR's partnership with Apollo, and ULI's picks for hottest markets in 2027.

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons dives into the world of non-traded REITs, looking at how they compare to their better-known peers in the publicly traded market. One advantage: Non-traded REITs don't have to wrestle with the volatile swings of the public market, but at the same time, they're also not as easy to buy or sell typically. Jay welcomes in the founder of the newest private REIT, Clay Grubb of Grubb Properties and Link Apartments REIT. Clay shares what drove him toward the REIT structure, how it works, and how it compares to traditional private funds and traded REITs. Clay also shares his firm's unusual DNA — a Charlotte-based apartment operator betting heavily on the coastal cities that most Sun Belt operators love to hate. What is Grubb seeing that drives their interest in places like New York City, Berkeley and Los Angeles? Also in this episode, Jay shares his hot take on why public REITs are a poor proxy for apartment values. And in this week's "In the News" segment, Jay shares headlines on HUD expanding its financing programs to include build-to-rent single-family rental homes and on the Census' latest multifamily starts data.

Is student housing in decline due to a massive enrollment cliff? Not exactly. While demographics are changing and the college-age population declining, the impact appears to be far more nuanced than doomsdayers suggest. Some campuses are doing just fine, while others are struggling. In this episode, rental housing economist Jay Parsons dives into the nuance of what's really happening as population trends shift, and why some universities may be better positioned than others going forward. Jay also shares his hot take on how this shift in student housing may be an early clue of what's to come in the conventional apartment market, as well. Later in the program, Jay goes in depth on the state of the student housing market with Casey Petersen, the CEO of PeakMade, one of the nation's top 10 largest student housing property managers with roughly 50,000 beds across 29 states. Also in this episode, Jay responds to a reader complaint on his observations on Austin's apartment rent and supply trends, as well as shares commentary on the latest headlines touching on rental housing — including an article about the rising political movement among renters.

Apartment demand and rent fundamentals are heating up, just as capital markets are cooling down — setting up an unusual paradox we haven't seen in recent history. Rental housing economist Jay Parsons breaks down the latest apartment data and trends in this episode recapping newly released data on the U.S. multifamily market. Apartments continue to see demand outpacing supply here in 2026, allowing vacancy rates and rental rates to find momentum following 3-4 years of backtracking. Even in supply-drenched markets like Austin, where rents fell dramatically amidst the surge of apartment completions, the storyline is changing quickly as supply drops off. Later in the program, Jay welcomes in CoStar's head of multifamily research, Grant Montgomery. Grant shares his take on which markets could heat up fastest in 2027, and also explains why CoStar recently upgraded its rent outlook. Additionally, Grant unveils one market that is going against the grain with a recent jump in construction starts, even as starts remain limited in most of the country. Also in this episode, Jay shares his take on The Wall Street Journal's report about apartment buyers demand price concessions from sellers given the Fed's recent rate hike. Jay also hops across the pond (figuratively) to discuss rising rent protests in Spain, as that European nation considers rent control. Also, Jay shares his weekly hot take, this time on why rent concessions may stick even as occupancy rates improve.

The Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) is turning 40 years old this month, and despite financing 4 million units of affordable housing — creating far more low-income housing than any other program — LIHTC is taking heat from all sides these days. You've probably heard many of the criticisms: "It's a developer giveaway and a financial boondoggle! It's not truly affordable to low-income households! LIHTC rents are comparable to market-rate rents and therefore the subsidies aren't needed!" So, what's the truth? What's the data tell us? Rental housing economist Jay Parsons rolls back the tape on how and why LIHTC was created back in October 1986, explains (at a very high level) LIHTC's unique public/private partnership model, and addresses the growing chorus of criticisms. In particular, Jay makes the point that LIHTC is working as intended, primarily housing very low-income households earning at or below 30% of the area median income. Jay also discusses why it's fair to criticize and reform many of LIHTC's administrative processes (which are often anything but efficient) while still acknowledging the program's remarkable outcomes in creating affordable housing. Later in the program, Jay welcomes in the leading guru of all things LIHTC: Michael Novogradac, who has been involved with LIHTC tax policy since Day 1 back in 1986 and continues to be a guiding voice in D.C. and across the country. Mike shares his take on how LIHTC is working relative to its original goals 40 years ago, and addresses the range of criticisms targeting the program. Mike shares data and insights that can be helpful for pro-housing voices hoping to respond to LIHTC critics with thoughtful, data-backed commentary. Also in this episode: Jay breaks down the latest headlines impacting apartments and SFR, including rising multifamily delinquency rates at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And Jay also shares his hot take on why there's no such thing as "Class B/C" apartments, and why it's increasingly important to separate B's from C's.

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons shares the data points and charts that investors should consider in evaluating the multifamily and single-family rental markets. What are the key trends in supply, demand, affordability, demographics and capital markets? And in this week's interview, BH Management CEO Joanna Zabriskie turns the tables, interviewing Jay at Pretium's investor conference, and that conversation is included in this episode of the podcast. Additionally, Jay breaks down the latest headlines, including The Wall Street Journal's article about rising distress and the looming wall of maturities facing the apartment sector. What is buzz versus reality?

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons breaks down the state of the single-family rental and build-to-rent markets. Is rent growth picking up as would-be homebuyers remain jilted by high mortgage rates? Not exactly. The SFR and BTR markets remain fairly soft, primarily in higher-supplied markets, showing the relationship with for-sale housing isn't quite as advertised. On the flip side, just like with apartments, lower-supplied markets (which are largely non-institutional) are seeing solid rent growth. Also, the CEO of the nation's largest SFR owner, Dallas Tanner of Invitation Homes, joins the podcast to share his thoughts on today's SFR market — particularly now with the ROAD to Housing Act finally in the rearview mirror. How will the new law impact Invitation and other institutional owners? Could we see more consolidation? And does institutional SFR have a PR problem? Additionally, in this week's "In the News" segment, Jay addresses headlines on San Francisco declaring a "rent emergency" and on the latest apartment REIT merger (IRT and Centerspace), as well as a new study on how long it takes to build housing across different cities.

It's budget season, that dreaded time of year when owners and operators attempt to predict the future --forecasting revenue and expenses for 2027. Rental housing economist Jay Parsons and special guest Lee Everett (head of research and strategy at Cortland, a top 10 apartment owner) seek to lend a helping hand. Jay and Lee talk about how revenue and expense trends could play out in the year ahead, and how those trends may differ by market and by asset class. What supply-heavy markets might surprise on the upside? Which could be laggards? Will rising consumer inflation end up impacting operating expenses, reversing two years of steadier expense trends? Additionally, Jay shares why you might expect better performance from Class A and B+ properties than from Class C, at least in the Sun Belt and Mountain states. Also in this week's episode, Jay makes the case for why rent concessions may not just "burn off" as many operators may want to see or expect to see in 2027, even as vacancy rates improve.

It's Episode 100 of The Rent Roll, and we're bringing back one of our most popular guests — James Ray of MetLife and CRE Analyst — to take on the big questions about the cycle ahead. How does distress compare to 2008? Why will NOI matter more than appreciation in the next cycle, and how do investors plan accordingly? How does increased regulatory risk impact allocations toward multifamily, single-family rentals and build-to-rent? When will institutions rebalance toward equity strategies after several years focused on private credit? What impact is AI having? And much more. Additionally, in this week's version of "The Complaints Department" segment, Jay addresses the most common complaint he hears. Jay also brings back other recurring segments like Rental Housing Trivia, In the News, Here's a Chart and Good Question.