In this special guest episode of the TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by Joey Chilelli, partner at Vanbarton Group and one of New York City's most active office-to-residential conversion developers. Joey makes the case that the split between Class A space and everything else is structural rather than cyclical, walks through how Vanbarton has underwritten conversions since 2011, and explains what actually determines whether a building pencils, from going-in basis to exit on a per-unit level. He also covers the timeline advantage over ground-up development, how the lender group has widened from a handful to dozens, the role of City of Yes and 467M in growing the pipeline, and why he believes conversions are here for the long term. Tune in now.

Episode Notes

• (00:00) Intro
• (01:19) Joey's Path into CRE
• (02:50) State of the Office Market
• (07:10) Conversion Pipeline & NYC Incentives
• (16:13) Underwriting & Financing
• (21:59) Resident Experience & Renewals
• (25:20) Which Buildings Convert & the Vanbarton Team
• (32:28) The Next Five Years & Outro

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In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the Fed's unanimous 25-basis-point hike, its first increase in three years, and what a 10-year Treasury above 5% means for CRE when oil, not demand, is driving inflation. We cover a robust retail sales report, businesses struggling to set prices, and new termination risk in GSA leases from anti-DEI provisions. We dig into new Trepp research on $6.6 billion of industrial CMBS exposure tied to Amazon and FedEx, including FedEx lease rollover ahead of loan maturity. We also discuss Hines and Rialto's $1.1 billion office credit fund, a partial office-to-residential conversion in Lower Manhattan, a major LA office extension, a Manhattan office transfer to special servicing, and new data center and retail deals. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• (00:00) Intro & Economic Update
• (22:38) Federal Government Lease Risk
• (27:37) Hines & Rialto $1.1B Office Fund
• (30:22) Amazon & FedEx Industrial Exposure
• (41:04) Office: Conversion, Extension & Transfer
• (49:10) Data Center & Retail Deals
• (54:25) Programming Notes
• (56:27) Shoutouts

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In a special live edition of The TreppWire Podcast recorded at the California MBA Western States CREF conference, we dig into why today’s CRE market can seem so contradictory and what the data says when you look beyond the national headlines. We break down the three clocks driving CRE today: property performance, capital markets, and credit. We examine the uneven Western office recovery, life sciences distress, why Western multifamily is outperforming the Sun Belt despite a $30.6 billion maturity test, and whether self-storage is flashing an early warning for housing. Plus, we follow two properties through very different cycles to show how performance, value, and credit can tell completely different stories. Tune in now.

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In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by Spencer Levy, Global Client Strategist and Senior Economic Advisor at CBRE and host of CBRE's podcast, The Weekly Take. Spencer shares how his diverse career spanning law, investment banking, and capital markets shapes his perspective on the commercial real estate industry and the trends influencing today's market.

Throughout the conversation, Spencer emphasizes the value of relationships, communication, and strategic thinking, particularly in landlord-tenant dynamics and business decision-making. He offers insights into the current commercial real estate environment, discussing the impact of sustained high interest rates and the industry's growing focus on NOI growth and revenue generation over exit cap rates. Spencer also explores the power of storytelling, drawing on his experience hosting The Weekly Take, and explains how podcasting has expanded his network, credibility, and reach across the industry. Tune in now.

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In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the latest moves in rates and capital markets as the 10-year Treasury approaches 5%. We discuss what higher long-term yields mean for CRE and why capital continues to move despite the higher-rate environment. In Digging Through the Data, we kick off college football season with a surprising look at $6.1 billion of securitized student housing debt near AP Top 25 schools and debate the long-term outlook for student versus senior housing. We also cover Ares and Scion's $435 million student housing acquisition, a Houston multifamily loan in special servicing despite 93% occupancy, two very different office stories, major industrial portfolio activity, and a surprise mall payoff despite a nearly 50% drop in appraised value. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• (00:00) Economic Update
• (13:00) College Football & Student Housing
• (25:30) Student Housing Deals & Outlook
• (35:35) Multifamily & Office Stories
• (44:43) Industrial & Retail Stories
• (51:06) Programming Notes
• (53:11) Shoutouts

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In this special guest episode of the TreppWire Podcast, we sit down with Catherine Sierakowski, Managing Director & Group Head of Corporate Banking, North American Real Estate at BMO Capital Markets. Catherine reflects on her nearly 20-year career at BMO, from starting in banking during the Global Financial Crisis to helping build the firm's institutional real estate platform and now leading its North American real estate corporate banking business.

We discuss how CRE lending has evolved from traditional balance sheet lending to more strategic capital solutions, along with where Catherine sees opportunity in today’s CRE market. We explore the explosive growth of the data center sector and the unique challenges of financing assets that sit at the intersection of real estate, technology, power, and corporate credit. Catherine shares her perspective on relationship-driven lending, effective client engagement, and the importance of balancing AI-driven insights with experienced human judgment. Tune in now.

Episode Notes

• Start at BMO (0:00)

• Real Estate Cycles (4:20)

• BMO Banking Strategy (8:23)

• Massive Data Center Deals Pricing (15:56)

• Where to Find Opportunity in CRE (24:54)

• How Transforms Lending (28:32)

• Shoutouts & Closing (33:40)

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the latest PCE inflation data and what the fine print could mean for rates, plus new Canadian tariffs and another potential hit to construction costs. We also cover Dick’s Sporting Goods’ record stock drop and continued struggles at Foot Locker, Google’s unusual $10 million purchase of Spirit Airlines’ internal corporate data, and the $2.2 billion redemption queue testing liquidity at Invesco’s real estate fund. We dig into the return of cash-out refinancing, and why today’s borrowers are taking less equity off the table than they did at the market peak. We close with five CRE distress stories that trace the spectrum of outcomes for impaired assets, from successful modifications and fresh equity buying time to sponsor liquidity shortfalls, foreclosure, and a staggering 98% valuation cut. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

() Macro Update: PCE Inflation, Rounding & Rate Outlook

() Canadian Tariffs Add to Construction Cost Pressures

() Dick's Sporting Goods' Record Drop & Foot Locker Weakness

() Google's $10M Purchase of Spirit Airlines' Data

() Invesco's $2.2B Redemption Queue

()Cash-In vs. Cash-Out Refinancing

() Five CRE Distress Stories: Who Writes the Next Check?

() Programming Notes

() Shoutouts

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In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we unpack a volatile week in the bond market as the 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.3%, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stepped in with expanded long-term buybacks, and much of the initial market reaction quickly reversed. We discuss what the move says about the battle over long-term rates, growing capital demands, and whether the Fed's next move could actually be a hike. In AI, increasingly complex financing structures and roughly $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments are raising new questions about leverage, interconnected risk, and just how much has to go right for the infrastructure boom to pay off. We then examine $12.1 billion of performing securitized office loans with DSCRs below 1.0x, including surprisingly well-occupied properties, and the maturity wall that could force borrowers to confront those cash-flow shortfalls. We close with major CRE transactions, including Rexford Industrial's $1.2 billion portfolio sale and a wave of maturity- and distress-driven hotel sales in California. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• (00:00) Macro Update: Yields, Buybacks & Fed Hike Talk
• (11:28) Goldman Sachs Buys LCN Capital
• (16:54) Data Center Deals & $3T Commitments
• (28:07) Office Loans Below Breakeven
• (37:19) Rexford's $1.2B Sale & Hotel Distress
• (42:50) Programming Notes
• (44:31) Shoutouts

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In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by Jim Dillavou, co-founder and principal at Paragon Commercial Group, a retail investment and development firm. Jim left a career as a real estate and finance attorney to launch Paragon after the global financial crisis, betting on necessity retail when almost no one else wanted the asset class. He explains why treating retail as one asset class is misleading, and how grocery-anchored centers built on daily trips deliver durable cashflow across cycles. Jim also walks us through why institutional capital is lining up for the sector and still struggling to get in. We cover the value-add work most investors avoid, from repositioning drugstore boxes and out parcels to vetting mom-and-pop tenants with no credit behind them. Jim closes with what COVID revealed about tenant quality and why he believes this is not a guesswork business. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• From Big Law to Buying Retail in the GFC (1:17)

• Defining Necessity Retail & Why Nuance Matters (3:23)

• Why Capital Cannot Easily Get Into the Sector (7:00)

• Fixed Rent Bumps & the Shift to Risk-Off Capital (9:34)

• Retailer Failures, Mark-to-Market Upside & an Operator's Market (14:44)

• Value-Add Playbook: Demising Boxes, Drugstores & Out Parcels (20:28)

• Tenant Mix, Cross-Shopping & the Mom-and-Pop Surprise (25:41)

• Vetting Non-Credit Tenants, Elbow Space & Final Take (31:24)

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the latest inflation and jobs data, what it could mean for the Fed, and why long-term Treasury yields and CRE borrowing costs may remain elevated. We also dig into the extraordinary scale of the AI capital boom, from surging hyperscaler bond issuance to Nvidia’s $500 billion financing initiative, new compute futures, and growing questions around credit and the pace of the AI buildout. In CRE, we discuss AI’s growing footprint in San Francisco office, a new contrarian fund betting on the office sector’s recovery, major multifamily and data center deals, and moves across retail and lodging. Plus, we examine Trepp data showing signs of relief in Florida multifamily insurance costs after years of sharp increases, and what that means for underwriting going forward. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Macro Update (00:00)
• AI Economy (9:15)
• Hyperscaler Data Center Trends (11:48)
• Compute Trading Evolution (18:56)
• Florida Insurance Data (26:24)
• Office Transactions (34:51)
• Multifamily & Data Center Deals (42:31)
• Retail & Lodging Stories (49:15)
• Programming Notes & Shoutouts (55:39)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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