America‘s Commercial Real Estate Show

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America‘s Commercial Real Estate Show episodes

October 07 How Foreign Investors See US Commercial Real Estate | Gunnar Branson, AFIRE
Where are foreign investors putting capital in US commercial real estate? Michael Bull, CCIM asks Gunnar Branson, CEO of AFIRE, what the mid-year Pulse shows.

Gunnar Branson leads AFIRE, the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate, whose members are institutional investors from 24 countries. Twice a year AFIRE surveys them on their US allocations, risks, and opportunities. This year's headline is a turn toward infrastructure and energy. Data centers are pulling institutional capital, and for the first time a majority of respondents say energy availability and cost shape where they invest.

On property types, industrial still tops the wish list and multifamily follows, but office has climbed to number 3. Gunnar explains why New York has almost no Class A office space available, why retail's comeback is the model for office, and why mixed-use, 24/7 neighborhoods are winning tenants. Michael shares why he calls office the buy of the decade, with a 200,000 square foot tower coming to market at about $64 a foot.

The conversation also covers the US economy (90% of respondents see politics as a negative force on investment, while 94% say this is a time for long-term investing), Japanese capital and the weak yen, why nearly half of the world's institutional quality real estate sits in the US, the housing affordability gap, build-to-rent and manufactured housing, household financial stress, tariffs and immigrant labor, and why location still matters.

In this episode:
00:00 Introduction: how foreign investors view the US
01:25 The AFIRE Pulse: institutional investors from 24 countries
02:22 From real estate to infrastructure: data centers lead
04:56 Generational capital and the long-term US view
05:28 Europe and the Middle East: a pause in new investment
06:11 Data centers: top opportunity and top risk
07:17 Office climbs to #3 behind industrial and multifamily
09:15 Office as the buy of the decade: lessons from retail
11:37 Buying office at $64 a foot: the low-basis play
12:27 US economy: strong growth, 90% see politics as a negative
14:52 Japanese capital, the yen, and long-term thinking
15:42 Why the US wins: nearly half of institutional real estate
18:09 The housing shortage and affordability
19:07 Build-to-rent, single family rentals, and manufactured housing
24:02 Household stress: 19% now at the breaking point
25:19 The biggest headline: energy infrastructure
27:44 Beyond the capital stack: new players in real estate
29:07 Tariffs, reshoring, and immigrant labor costs
31:48 Visas, universities, and where capital follows
33:35 Location, location: why investors favor vibrant cities

Connect with Gunnar Branson:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/gunnarbranson/
AFIRE Website: https://www.afire.org/

Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:
Michael Bull, CCIM
Bull Realty, Inc
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/

For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.

America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.

TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com

Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com

Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com

Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/

#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #ForeignInvestment #RealEstateInvesting #AFIRE #DataCenters
#Infrastructure #OfficeMarket #Multifamily #IndustrialRealEstate #AffordableHousing #CREShow
39 min
September 30 Commercial Real Estate Recovery: Where the Opportunities Are | Rich Hill, Principal
Commercial real estate has moved from downturn to recovery, but the gains are uneven. Rich Hill of Principal Asset Management joins Michael Bull, CCIM to map where the opportunities are.
Rich Hill is Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Real Estate Research and Strategy at Principal Asset Management, which manages roughly $110 billion of commercial real estate globally. He explains why US total returns have risen for about 8 consecutive quarters, why real estate cycles average around 16 years, and why net operating income growth will drive returns in a cycle with little room left for cap rate compression.
Beneath muted headline returns, the top quartile of properties is performing well while the bottom quartile has failed to launch. Rich walks through the US housing mismatch and a selective view on Class A apartments, build-to-rent under the ROAD to Housing Act, senior housing demand from the growing 70+ population, and why power centers and unanchored retail look attractive. On office, 90% of vacancy sits in 30% of buildings and 40% of buildings have no vacancy at all.
With the 10-year Treasury above 5%, Rich and Michael discuss why properties trading below replacement cost are holding back new supply, and why commercial real estate worked for decades with Treasury rates at 4% to 5%.
In this episode:
00:00 Where Are the Commercial Real Estate Opportunities?
01:32 CRE Recovery: 8 Quarters of Rising Returns and 16-Year Cycles
03:48 Muted Headline Returns and the Dispersion Underneath
06:28 Selective Conviction and the US Housing Mismatch
08:35 Class A Apartments, Class B Value-Add, and AI Job Risk
09:55 Build-to-Rent and the ROAD to Housing Act
10:59 Senior Housing: The Growing 70+ Population
12:01 Retail Real Estate: Power Centers and Unanchored Centers
14:13 AI, White-Collar Jobs, and the Office Market
16:40 Below Replacement Cost: Why New Supply Has Stalled
18:37 Investing With a 5% 10-Year Treasury
19:46 Back to Normal: CRE at 4% to 5% Treasury Rates
Connect with Rich Hill:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-hill-2156387/
Principal Asset Management Website: https://www.principalam.com
Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:
Michael Bull, CCIM
Bull Realty, Inc
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/
For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.
America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.
TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com
Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com
Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com
Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/
#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #CREOutlook #RealEstateInvesting #Multifamily #BuildToRent #RetailRealEstate #OfficeMarket #SeniorHousing #InterestRates #PrincipalAssetManagement #CREShow
24 min
September 23 Retail Sales Outlook: Why Shoppers Keep Spending | NRF Chief Economist Mark Matthews
Retail sales are running 5.3% ahead of last year, beating NRF's 4.4% forecast. Michael Bull, CCIM asks NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews why shoppers keep spending.
Consumer sentiment sits near the lowest readings on record, yet shoppers keep buying. Mark Mathews, Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research at the National Retail Federation, explains why most of the 2026 growth is real rather than inflation: goods inflation is running about 0.8%, and a dollar spent on a durable good 30 years ago costs about 79 cents today.
Mark breaks down the K-shaped consumer (the top 20% of households drive about 60% of spending), how $60 billion in extra tax refunds offset higher gas prices through August, and why retailers who win on price are winning now. He also covers diesel and tariff costs, blended e-commerce and physical stores, AI shopping assistants, TikTok and influencer-driven sales, and his outlook for holiday spending.
For owners and investors in retail real estate and net lease retail, this is a clear read on the consumer behind the rent checks.
In this episode:
00:00 Retail Real Estate: Are Retailers Really Doing Well?
01:41 Retail Sales Up 5.3% vs. NRF's 4.4% Forecast
03:44 Who's Winning: Retailers That Own Low Prices
04:55 Dollar Stores and the K-Shaped Consumer
06:03 Gas Prices, the Top 20% and $60B in Tax Refunds
08:30 Consumer Confidence Near Record Lows
10:07 Diesel, Tariffs and Who Absorbs the Cost
11:30 E-Commerce, Blended Commerce and Physical Stores
13:07 Why Shoppers Still Want to Touch the Product
13:51 AI in Retail: Big Investment, Unclear Payoff
15:51 Showing Up in AI Search Results
18:11 Retail Sales Outlook and Holiday Spending
19:28 Advice for Retailers and Retail Property Owners
21:14 TikTok, Influencers and the Customer as Emperor
22:24 Wrap-Up
Connect with Mark Mathews:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-mathews-cbe-4522913/
National Retail Federation Website: https://nrf.com
Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:
Michael Bull, CCIM
Bull Realty, Inc
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/
For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.
America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.
TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com
Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com
Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com
Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/
#RetailRealEstate #RetailSales #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #NRF #ConsumerSpending #NetLease #RetailForecast #Economy #AIinRetail #BullRealty #CREShow
24 min
September 16 Data Center Real Estate: Cap Rates, Costs, and Demand | Ermengarde Jabir, Moody's
Data center demand is booming, but the buildings are going obsolete faster than they can fill up. Michael Bull, CCIM digs into the numbers with Ermengarde Jabir, PhD, Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics.
The US data center market is now 31 to 32 gigawatts of power, and power, not square footage, is the right way to size it. Ermengarde explains why a 50,000 square foot data center built 10 or 15 years ago might now need only 25,000 square feet to house the newer racks and servers, leaving half the building empty. She walks through the sector's cap rates, a competitive 4% to mid-5% range, the shrinking risk premium as the 10-year Treasury pushes past 4.6%, and who is actually building these now, from traditional developers to the big tech owner-operators alongside long-time REITs Digital Realty and Equinix.
The conversation covers the data center types from co-location to hyperscale, why the shell is simple like an industrial warehouse but the interior build-out and cooling are where the cost lives, office-to-data-center conversions and the load-bearing floor test that makes or breaks them, the moratoriums and lost-tax-base math driving local approvals, and what the AI build-out really means for jobs. Ermengarde's bottom line on employment: not more or fewer jobs, but different jobs.
In this episode:
00:00 Intro: The Data Center Debate
01:23 How Big Is the Market? 31 to 32 Gigawatts of Power
02:18 Why Power Beats Square Footage, and the Obsolescence Problem
03:53 Data Center Types, From Co-Location to Hyperscale
04:47 Who Is Building Now: Developers, REITs, and Big Tech
07:54 Hyperscale Build-Out and the Shift to Liquid Cooling
10:28 Data Center Cap Rates: 4% to Mid-5% and the Risk Premium
12:11 Office-to-Data-Center Conversions and the Load-Bearing Test
14:08 Moratoriums, Zoning, and the Local Tax-Base Math
16:03 The Future: Why Exponential Growth Cannot Last
19:11 Data Centers and Jobs: Construction vs Permanent
22:43 AI and Employment: The 4.1% Headline and What It Hides
25:35 Office-Using Employment: Peak or Another Cycle?
27:03 Final Takeaway: Different Jobs, Not Fewer
Connect with Ermengarde Jabir, PhD:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ermengarde-jabir-phd-3114829a/
Moody's Analytics Website: https://www.moodysanalytics.com
Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:
Michael Bull, CCIM
Bull Realty, Inc
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/
For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.
America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.
TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com
Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com
Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com
Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/
#DataCenters #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #DataCenterRealEstate #AI #CapRates #Hyperscale #AdaptiveReuse #RealEstateInvesting #CREForecast #MoodysAnalytics #MichaelBull
29 min
September 09 Why Senior Housing Needs Twice the Units Ever Built | Arick Morton, NIC MAP
Senior housing is posting record absorption while new supply sits at Great Financial Crisis lows. Michael Bull, CCIM talks with Arick Morton, Chief Executive Officer of NIC MAP, about what that gap means for owners, investors, and developers.
Arick walks through the numbers behind the demand story: median occupancy back near 93%, more than 30 of the top 100 metros running a 95% median, transaction volume touching all-time highs, and price per unit up meaningfully. Cap rates have compressed into the 6 handles for stabilized Class A and B product in good markets, with 5 handles trading in some cases.
The supply side is the harder half. Labor costs climbed 30% to 35% between 2021 and early 2023, and because buildings sat around 80% full, almost none of it was passed through to rents. Occupancy has healed, margins have not fully caught up, and the unlevered yield on cost math still comes up short in many markets. Arick lays out what has to change before a sustained construction cycle starts.
Then the opportunity set. The 80 plus population grows roughly 35% by 2030 and 65% to 70% by 2035, which means the industry needs to deliver about twice as many units as it has ever built, every year, for the next 20 years. Arick makes the case that expanding existing communities is the fastest pressure relief valve available, since roughly two thirds of the stock is 20 to 25 years old and much of it sits on land bought before land got expensive. He also covers third party management, regional density in portfolio construction, and where AI actually helps an operator.
In this episode:
00:00 Senior Housing Market Outlook 2026
01:46 Meet Arick Morton, CEO of NIC MAP
02:14 Record Absorption and Capital Rotating In
03:45 Why Passive Capital Needs an Operating Partner
04:24 New Supply at Great Financial Crisis Lows
06:33 Labor Costs Up 30% to 35% and the Margin Gap
07:57 Occupancy: 93% Median, 95% in 30 Plus Metros
08:42 Active Adult, IL, Assisted Living, Memory Care, Skilled Nursing
10:45 Cap Rates: 6 Handles, and 5s for the Best Product
12:17 Transaction Volume at All-Time Highs and the NCREIF Index
13:46 Owner or Operator: The Third Party Management Question
15:42 Twice as Many Units, Every Year, for 20 Years
17:56 The Expansion Play: Building on Land You Already Own
20:02 AI, Data, and Regional Density for Operators
22:13 Where to Find NIC MAP Research
23:32 Final Takeaway
Connect with Arick Morton:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/arickmorton/
NIC MAP Website: https://www.nicmap.com
Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:
Michael Bull, CCIM
Bull Realty, Inc
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/
For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.
America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.
TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com
Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com
Bull Realty: Southeast U.S. commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com
Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/
#SeniorHousing #SeniorHousingInvestment #CommercialRealEstate #AssistedLiving #MemoryCare #IndependentLiving #SkilledNursing #CapRates #CREInvesting #RealEstateInvesting #NICMAP #CREShow
25 min
September 03 Industrial Real Estate: Demand Rebound | Marc Selvitelli, CREDA
Industrial real estate demand is rebounding in 2026 after the slowest first half in eight years. Michael Bull, CCIM gets the latest from Marc Selvitelli, President and CEO of the Commercial Real Estate Development Association (CREDA, the organization known for decades as NAIOP).
Only 75 million square feet of industrial space delivered in the first half of 2026, the lowest in eight years. Yet 595 million square feet are now under construction, up 5% year over year, with vacancy essentially flat at 6.9%. Marc explains why the sector is normalizing toward historical norms instead of repeating the post-pandemic rocket ship, and why consumer spending and e-commerce still support the trend. One caveat sits under the numbers: the forecast assumes the conflict with Iran winds down in the second half of the year.
The conversation also covers the CREDA sentiment survey (slow, steady, and quietly positive as capital returns), the return to office at 3.4 days a week, why power availability is now the single biggest constraint on new development, and the explosion in data centers, from 2% of members three years ago to 12% today. Marc and Michael dig into industrial outdoor storage (under 2% vacancy nationwide), medical office, office-to-residential conversions, senior housing technology, and what AI really does and does not change for brokerage.
In this episode:
00:00 Intro: NAIOP Is Now CREDA
00:56 Why NAIOP Rebranded to the CRE Development Association
02:29 Industrial Demand Forecast: Slowest First Half in 8 Years
04:22 The Iran Conflict Assumption in the Forecast
05:10 595M SF Under Construction as Development Turns Up
06:19 Industrial Investment and Capital Coming Back
07:21 CREDA Sentiment Survey: Slow and Steady, Trending Positive
08:09 Multifamily Uncertainty and Office Finding Its Footing
09:44 Return to Office: 3.4 Days a Week, AI Firms at Five
10:34 Construction, Labor, and Power: The Biggest Constraint
12:12 Data Centers: From 2% of Members to 12%
14:39 Industrial Outdoor Storage: Under 2% Vacancy Nationwide
15:42 End-of-Year Opportunities: IOS, Medical Office, Conversions
17:23 A 185,000 SF Tower at 30%: The Office Condo Play
18:45 Senior Housing Demand and the Technology Gap
21:07 AI, Brokerage, and Why Relationships Still Win
25:24 Final Takeaway
Connect with Marc Selvitelli, CAE:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/marc-selvitelli-cae-7b6a991
CREDA Website: https://www.credaglobal.org
Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:
Michael Bull, CCIM
Bull Realty, Inc
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/
For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.
America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.
TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com
Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com
Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com
Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/
#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #IndustrialRealEstate #NAIOP #CREDA #DataCenters #IndustrialOutdoorStorage #OfficeMarket #CREForecast #RealEstateInvesting #MedicalOffice #MichaelBull
27 min
August 27 Multifamily Outlook 2026: Class B Value-Add Is Broken | Victor Menasce, Y Street Capital
Houston delivered 6,400 apartment units in Q1 while Class B absorption came in at negative 750. Michael Bull, CCIM and developer Victor Menasce break down what that means for apartment investors and developers in 2026.
Victor Menasce, Senior Partner at Y Street Capital, has developed and owned property through multiple recessions and cycles. He explains why the traditional Class B value-add playbook of adding washers and dryers and pushing rents $50 a month is running out of room, how Class A concessions are pulling renters up and out of older product, and why lease surfing stretches stabilization timelines even in brand new buildings.
The conversation also covers entitlement risk and the case for building by right, how opposition groups now organize on social media within weeks and use AI to research objections, the Austin multifamily oversupply and how long that absorption may take, and where the supply and demand mismatch actually sits today.
Victor also makes the case for active adult housing as an underbuilt segment between market rate apartments and independent living, with resident tenure averaging around nine years. Plus construction cost trends, factory built delivery, and an insurance renewal that went from $58,000 to a $350,000 quote in a single year.
In this episode:
00:00 Development Through CRE Cycles With Victor Menasce
01:28 Your Investment Thesis Ages Before the Project Delivers
02:13 Three Legs of the Stool: Capital Cost, Rents, Construction
02:47 Entitlement Risk and the Case for Building By Right
04:22 Local Counsel, Relationships, and Approval Timelines
05:04 Organized Opposition: Social Media Groups and AI Research
07:00 New Supply: Austin Oversupply and Rent Concessions
08:34 Lease Surfing and When Apartments Become a Commodity
11:19 Active Adult: The Gap Below Independent Living
12:11 Office Conversions and Mixed Use Done Right
13:35 Active Adult Demographics: 70% Singles, 9 Year Tenure
15:00 Construction Costs 2026: Labor, Trades, Supply Chain
16:03 Factory Built Delivery and Hambro Joist Time Savings
16:52 Insurance Shock: $58K Premium to a $350K Renewal Quote
18:40 Houston Q1 Data: Class B Squeezed From Above and Below
20:16 Closing Thoughts and Sponsors
Connect with Victor Menasce:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce/
Y Street Capital Website: https://ystreetcapital.com
Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:
Michael Bull, CCIM
Bull Realty, Inc
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/
For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.
America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.
TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com
Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com
Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com
Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/
#CommercialRealEstate #Multifamily #ApartmentInvesting #RealEstateDevelopment #ValueAdd #ActiveAdult #HousingSupply #ConstructionCosts #RealEstateInvesting #CRE #Houston #CREshow
22 min
August 20 Commercial Real Estate Cycle 2026: Still Early Innings | Ryan Severino, BG
Six years into the expansion, the commercial real estate cycle still looks early. Michael Bull, CCIM covers 2026 rates, supply, and office with BGO Chief Economist Ryan Severino, CFA.
Ryan Severino, CFA, Chief Economist and Head of Research for the U.S. at BGO, explains why a cycle that is six years old still behaves like an early to mid cycle expansion. Debt sits at moderate levels, the labor market has room to run, and leverage has stayed disciplined. He sees runway left in the economy and in commercial real estate.
The conversation covers where inflation and interest rates go from here, why the 10-year Treasury has trouble moving far off 4% on fundamentals alone, and how trade policy and the conflict in Iran are adding roughly 30 to 60 basis points to the long end of the curve. Severino also makes the case that today's rates only feel high because most people working in this industry have spent their entire careers in a market where the 10-year stayed below 5% for a quarter century.
On the property side: the construction pipeline is the most benign on record relative to existing inventory, which means owners no longer need an outsized jump in demand to compress vacancy and restart rent growth. Severino explains why he is more constructive on office than most of the industry, drawing a direct comparison to how wrong the popular narrative on retail was for 15 years. Michael Bull adds a live example, a 17-story tower coming to market at $64 per square foot, below the cost of building out the space.
The episode closes on what Severino calls a recovery out of order. In a normal cycle, capital markets recover first and space market fundamentals lag. This time fundamentals are recovering while elevated long-term rates hold the capital markets back. His view on the next 12 to 24 months: higher transaction volume, more attractive pricing, and a real estate return profile that compares well against a richly valued stock market.
In this episode:
00:00 Where Are We in the CRE Cycle? What Inning Are We In?
01:08 Six Years In and Still Early Cycle: The Rain Delay Economy
03:17 Pandemic, Inflation, Trade War, Real War: A Fits and Starts Cycle
04:39 Inflation Resurgent: A Speed Bump, Not a Roadblock
06:37 The 10-Year Treasury: Why It Cannot Move Far Off 4%
07:58 A Quarter Century Below 5%: Today's Rates Are About Average
09:26 Michael's 17% Loan and Making Money at Higher Rates
10:28 Oil Prices and Iran: Why the U.S. Economy Shrugs Now
12:46 AI and Data Centers: Galactic Capital and Political Backlash
15:02 Record Low Construction: Why Supply No Longer Drives the Cycle
17:57 Office: The Contrarian Case and the Retail Playbook
20:07 A 17-Story Tower at $64 per Foot
20:42 Recovery Out of Order: Fundamentals First, Capital Markets Lagging
24:47 Relative Value: Real Estate Against a Richly Priced Stock Market
25:57 Final Takeaway: You Do Not Pay Today's Rate Forever
Connect with Ryan Severino:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryan-severino-cfa-4409022/
BGO Website: https://www.bgo.com
Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:
Michael Bull, CCIM
Bull Realty, Inc
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/
For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.
America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.
TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com
Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com
Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com
Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/
#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #RealEstateInvesting #CommercialRealEstateForecast #InterestRates #OfficeMarket #DataCenters #CapRates #RealEstateCycle #CREInvesting #Treasury #MichaelBull
28 min
August 12 Multifamily Market Update 2026: Rent Growth Returns | Carl Whitaker, RealPage
Apartment rents grew 1.5% over the past 90 days, the fastest pace since late 2022. RealPage Chief Economist Carl Whitaker joins Michael Bull, CCIM, to break down where the multifamily market stands at mid-year 2026.
Carl walks through second quarter actuals and third quarter forecasts, and explains why the national average matters less than it ever has. Class A properties are posting growth rates on par with 2018 and 2019, Class B is finding its footing, and Class C has been left behind by a K-shaped economy. In Raleigh, Class C rents have now declined for 15 straight quarters.
The conversation covers the supply pullback versus resilient demand, how the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act paused the build to rent pipeline and why new market rate starts are already returning in markets like Raleigh Durham, and why build to rent complements conventional apartments instead of competing with them.
Michael and Carl also dig into submarket dispersion, with Midtown, Buckhead, and Northeast Atlanta Class A rents up 2% to 3% year over year while the Atlanta metro average shows rents down 1.5% to 2%. They cover the cost side of the business, where taxes and insurance are finally cooling while marketing costs climb, and the effect of AI on rents and underwriting, with median rent to income now at its lowest level since 2020. Carl closes on the barbell shape of today's investment sales market and where he sees opportunity in second tier Southeast markets including Greenville Spartanburg, western North Carolina, and Chattanooga.
Connect with Carl Whitaker:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/carlwhitaker15/
RealPage Website: https://www.realpage.com

Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:
Michael Bull, CCIM
Bull Realty, Inc
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/

Read More Here: https://www.bullrealty.com/intel/blog-posts/view/the-return-of-rent-growth-why-the-multifamily-recovery-is-splitting-by-class-and-submarket

For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.

America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.
TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com
Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com
Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com
Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/

#Multifamily #MultifamilyInvesting #ApartmentInvesting #CommercialRealEstate #RentGrowth #BuildToRent
#RealEstateInvesting #ApartmentMarket #CapRates #RealPage #CREShow #MichaelBull
27 min
August 04 US Office Market Outlook 2026: Vacancy, Rents & Sales | Phil Mobley, CoStar
US office vacancy sits at 13.8% while rents rise and inventory actually shrinks. CoStar's Phil Mobley breaks down the two-tier office market at mid-2026.
Phil Mobley, National Director of Office Analytics at CoStar Group, joins Michael Bull, CCIM to explain why the office headlines and the office market have stopped matching. National vacancy peaked at 14.1% a year ago and now sits near 13.8%, with four consecutive quarters of positive absorption totaling roughly 20 million square feet. For perspective, that full year of demand would have been one decent quarter in 2018.
The supply side is where this cycle breaks from history. New construction starts are running about 5 million square feet per quarter, a generational low, and for the past two quarters CoStar's data shows outright supply contraction: more office space is being demolished or converted than delivered, which has never happened before.
Mobley also corrects the most common misconception about the office recovery. It is not simply Class A winning and Class B losing. Trophy assets, the top 5% of inventory, are performing strongly, and solid B and B-minus buildings serving price-sensitive tenants held up better than most people assume. The real occupancy damage landed on A-minus and B-plus product caught in the middle: not distinctive enough to compete with trophy space, too expensive to compete on price.
Also covered: why AI has been an unambiguous demand tailwind so far and the venture-capital risk hiding inside it, why return-to-office gains raise foot traffic without raising space needs, how New York and Dallas preview where the rest of the country is heading, why lease sizes have run 15% below pre-pandemic levels for nearly three years, and the capital markets shift as institutions climb back from 10% to 15% of office deal volume to around 20%, buying buildings to keep them as office. Plus the point every landlord should sit with: the total vacancy number is not the relevant number. Competitive vacancy is, and a landlord without capital to fund tenant improvements does not really have leasable space.
In this episode:
00:00 Is Office the Buy of the Decade?
01:19 The US Office Market: Smaller, but Recovering
02:22 Vacancy at 13.8% and Four Quarters of Positive Absorption
04:30 New Supply: Generationally Low and Now Contracting
06:02 Trophy vs. A-Minus: Where Occupancy Actually Collapsed
10:34 AI and Office Demand: A Tailwind With an Asterisk
14:13 Return to Office: Foot Traffic vs. Space Demand
16:40 Why New York Led, and How the Country Became Dallas
21:12 How Much Vacant Space Is Actually Leasable?
23:02 Tenant Improvement Capital and the Rise of Spec Suites
25:29 Lease Sizes Down 15% From Pre-Pandemic
27:01 Office Investment Sales: Institutions Are Buying Again
30:33 User Buyers, Two World Trade, and Occupier-Driven Construction
32:48 Forecast: Vacancy, Rents, and the Next 6 to 12 Months
34:36 Capital Is King: Corporations Building Their Own Space

Connect with Phil Mobley:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/phil-mobley/
CoStar Group Website: https://www.costar.com

Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:
Michael Bull, CCIM
Bull Realty, Inc
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/

For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.

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#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #OfficeMarket #OfficeSpace #RealEstateInvesting #CREForecast #OfficeVacancy #CoStar #TenantRepresentation #BullRealty
38 min

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America’s Commercial Real Estate Show™ is the nation’s leading show on commercial real estate related topics. Leading economists, analysts and market leaders including show host Michael Bull share…