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By Bull Realty
4.5
142142 ratings
The podcast currently has 1,623 episodes available.
The most played episodes among Podcast App listeners.

Six years into the expansion, the commercial real estate cycle still looks early. Michael Bull, CCIM covers 2026 rates, supply, and office with BGO Chief Economist Ryan Severino, CFA. Ryan Severino, CFA, Chief Economist and Head of Research for the U.S. at BGO, explains why a cycle that is six years old still behaves like an early to mid cycle expansion. Debt sits at moderate levels, the labor market has room to run, and leverage has stayed disciplined. He sees runway left in the economy and in commercial real estate. The conversation covers where inflation and interest rates go from here, why the 10-year Treasury has trouble moving far off 4% on fundamentals alone, and how trade policy and the conflict in Iran are adding roughly 30 to 60 basis points to the long end of the curve. Severino also makes the case that today's rates only feel high because most people working in this industry have spent their entire careers in a market where the 10-year stayed below 5% for a quarter century. On the property side: the construction pipeline is the most benign on record relative to existing inventory, which means owners no longer need an outsized jump in demand to compress vacancy and restart rent growth. Severino explains why he is more constructive on office than most of the industry, drawing a direct comparison to how wrong the popular narrative on retail was for 15 years. Michael Bull adds a live example, a 17-story tower coming to market at $64 per square foot, below the cost of building out the space. The episode closes on what Severino calls a recovery out of order. In a normal cycle, capital markets recover first and space market fundamentals lag. This time fundamentals are recovering while elevated long-term rates hold the capital markets back. His view on the next 12 to 24 months: higher transaction volume, more attractive pricing, and a real estate return profile that compares well against a richly valued stock market. In this episode: 00:00 Where Are We in the CRE Cycle? What Inning Are We In? 01:08 Six Years In and Still Early Cycle: The Rain Delay Economy 03:17 Pandemic, Inflation, Trade War, Real War: A Fits and Starts Cycle 04:39 Inflation Resurgent: A Speed Bump, Not a Roadblock 06:37 The 10-Year Treasury: Why It Cannot Move Far Off 4% 07:58 A Quarter Century Below 5%: Today's Rates Are About Average 09:26 Michael's 17% Loan and Making Money at Higher Rates 10:28 Oil Prices and Iran: Why the U.S. Economy Shrugs Now 12:46 AI and Data Centers: Galactic Capital and Political Backlash 15:02 Record Low Construction: Why Supply No Longer Drives the Cycle 17:57 Office: The Contrarian Case and the Retail Playbook 20:07 A 17-Story Tower at $64 per Foot 20:42 Recovery Out of Order: Fundamentals First, Capital Markets Lagging 24:47 Relative Value: Real Estate Against a Richly Priced Stock Market 25:57 Final Takeaway: You Do Not Pay Today's Rate Forever Connect with Ryan Severino: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryan-severino-cfa-4409022/ BGO Website: https://www.bgo.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #RealEstateInvesting #CommercialRealEstateForecast #InterestRates #OfficeMarket #DataCenters #CapRates #RealEstateCycle #CREInvesting #Treasury #MichaelBull

As commercial real estate navigates the mid-year of 2026, the primary point of uncertainty has officially shifted from the capital markets to the realities of underlying tenant demand. In this episode, host Michael Bull is joined by Xander Snyder, CRE Economist with First American, to break down their newly published mid-year market forecast. While a flat yield curve and geopolitical tensions in Iran keep interest rate cuts firmly off the table for the remainder of the year, Xander delivers a highly optimistic, contrarian outlook for early-cycle investors. As the industry enters the early innings of a fresh 10-to-20-year expansionary cycle, the playbook has changed: structural valuation adjustments have re-opened sales volumes, and the path to outsized returns now rests entirely on asset-level expense management and protecting the downside. Key Topics Covered in This Episode: The Mid-Year Macro Overview: Xander explains why consumer debt, falling real wages, and targeted corporate AI spend mean demand metrics—rather than Fed interest rate adjustments—will define the second half of 2026. The Illusion of the Labor Market: Squaring a 4.3% headline unemployment rate with a challenging job search environment, and how low employee turnover is impacting commercial space requirements. Yield Curve Realities & The 10-Year Treasury: Navigating a flat, non-inverted yield curve and why historical data implies a 10-year Treasury path heading toward 5% to 6%, even without future Fed rate hikes. Office Bifurcation & Traded Volume: How severe price corrections and near-zero new supply have allowed suburban office underwriting to work, driving a 40% to 50% spike in Q1 sales and refinancing activity. The Defensive Floor Under Retail: Why a 15-year supply freeze paired with resilient consumer spending keeps brick-and-mortar retail exceptionally strong, despite isolated Class B and C mall closures. Multifamily Capital Structure Distresses: Managing the wave of 2021-2022 floating-rate maturities, prohibitively expensive interest rate caps, and why lender takebacks are a story of capital right-sizing rather than structural demand destruction. Industrial Stabilization by Asset Size: Why large-scale logistics spaces face short-term trade policy vacancies while localized industrial footprints under 50,000 square feet maintain tight 3% to 4% vacancy rates. The Rare Property Insurance Expense Win: A deep dive into the temporary 10% to 15% drop in property insurance premiums driven by excess 2025 reinsurance capital, and how operators must capture these line-item savings to boost NOI while rents grow modestly. Whether you are an institutional lender evaluating foreclosure strategies, a private syndicator structuring new performs, or a corporate user tracking localized Southeast growth metrics, this episode offers an elite framework for investing at the baseline of the next real estate cycle. Connect with Xander: https://www.firstam.com/economics/xander-snyder/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/xander-snyder-econ/ Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America’s Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies.Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/

Industrial real estate demand is rebounding in 2026 after the slowest first half in eight years. Michael Bull, CCIM gets the latest from Marc Selvitelli, President and CEO of the Commercial Real Estate Development Association (CREDA, the organization known for decades as NAIOP). Only 75 million square feet of industrial space delivered in the first half of 2026, the lowest in eight years. Yet 595 million square feet are now under construction, up 5% year over year, with vacancy essentially flat at 6.9%. Marc explains why the sector is normalizing toward historical norms instead of repeating the post-pandemic rocket ship, and why consumer spending and e-commerce still support the trend. One caveat sits under the numbers: the forecast assumes the conflict with Iran winds down in the second half of the year. The conversation also covers the CREDA sentiment survey (slow, steady, and quietly positive as capital returns), the return to office at 3.4 days a week, why power availability is now the single biggest constraint on new development, and the explosion in data centers, from 2% of members three years ago to 12% today. Marc and Michael dig into industrial outdoor storage (under 2% vacancy nationwide), medical office, office-to-residential conversions, senior housing technology, and what AI really does and does not change for brokerage. In this episode: 00:00 Intro: NAIOP Is Now CREDA 00:56 Why NAIOP Rebranded to the CRE Development Association 02:29 Industrial Demand Forecast: Slowest First Half in 8 Years 04:22 The Iran Conflict Assumption in the Forecast 05:10 595M SF Under Construction as Development Turns Up 06:19 Industrial Investment and Capital Coming Back 07:21 CREDA Sentiment Survey: Slow and Steady, Trending Positive 08:09 Multifamily Uncertainty and Office Finding Its Footing 09:44 Return to Office: 3.4 Days a Week, AI Firms at Five 10:34 Construction, Labor, and Power: The Biggest Constraint 12:12 Data Centers: From 2% of Members to 12% 14:39 Industrial Outdoor Storage: Under 2% Vacancy Nationwide 15:42 End-of-Year Opportunities: IOS, Medical Office, Conversions 17:23 A 185,000 SF Tower at 30%: The Office Condo Play 18:45 Senior Housing Demand and the Technology Gap 21:07 AI, Brokerage, and Why Relationships Still Win 25:24 Final Takeaway Connect with Marc Selvitelli, CAE: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marc-selvitelli-cae-7b6a991 CREDA Website: https://www.credaglobal.org Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #IndustrialRealEstate #NAIOP #CREDA #DataCenters #IndustrialOutdoorStorage #OfficeMarket #CREForecast #RealEstateInvesting #MedicalOffice #MichaelBull

Houston delivered 6,400 apartment units in Q1 while Class B absorption came in at negative 750. Michael Bull, CCIM and developer Victor Menasce break down what that means for apartment investors and developers in 2026. Victor Menasce, Senior Partner at Y Street Capital, has developed and owned property through multiple recessions and cycles. He explains why the traditional Class B value-add playbook of adding washers and dryers and pushing rents $50 a month is running out of room, how Class A concessions are pulling renters up and out of older product, and why lease surfing stretches stabilization timelines even in brand new buildings. The conversation also covers entitlement risk and the case for building by right, how opposition groups now organize on social media within weeks and use AI to research objections, the Austin multifamily oversupply and how long that absorption may take, and where the supply and demand mismatch actually sits today. Victor also makes the case for active adult housing as an underbuilt segment between market rate apartments and independent living, with resident tenure averaging around nine years. Plus construction cost trends, factory built delivery, and an insurance renewal that went from $58,000 to a $350,000 quote in a single year. In this episode: 00:00 Development Through CRE Cycles With Victor Menasce 01:28 Your Investment Thesis Ages Before the Project Delivers 02:13 Three Legs of the Stool: Capital Cost, Rents, Construction 02:47 Entitlement Risk and the Case for Building By Right 04:22 Local Counsel, Relationships, and Approval Timelines 05:04 Organized Opposition: Social Media Groups and AI Research 07:00 New Supply: Austin Oversupply and Rent Concessions 08:34 Lease Surfing and When Apartments Become a Commodity 11:19 Active Adult: The Gap Below Independent Living 12:11 Office Conversions and Mixed Use Done Right 13:35 Active Adult Demographics: 70% Singles, 9 Year Tenure 15:00 Construction Costs 2026: Labor, Trades, Supply Chain 16:03 Factory Built Delivery and Hambro Joist Time Savings 16:52 Insurance Shock: $58K Premium to a $350K Renewal Quote 18:40 Houston Q1 Data: Class B Squeezed From Above and Below 20:16 Closing Thoughts and Sponsors Connect with Victor Menasce: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce/ Y Street Capital Website: https://ystreetcapital.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #Multifamily #ApartmentInvesting #RealEstateDevelopment #ValueAdd #ActiveAdult #HousingSupply #ConstructionCosts #RealEstateInvesting #CRE #Houston #CREshow

Apartment rents grew 1.5% over the past 90 days, the fastest pace since late 2022. RealPage Chief Economist Carl Whitaker joins Michael Bull, CCIM, to break down where the multifamily market stands at mid-year 2026. Carl walks through second quarter actuals and third quarter forecasts, and explains why the national average matters less than it ever has. Class A properties are posting growth rates on par with 2018 and 2019, Class B is finding its footing, and Class C has been left behind by a K-shaped economy. In Raleigh, Class C rents have now declined for 15 straight quarters. The conversation covers the supply pullback versus resilient demand, how the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act paused the build to rent pipeline and why new market rate starts are already returning in markets like Raleigh Durham, and why build to rent complements conventional apartments instead of competing with them. Michael and Carl also dig into submarket dispersion, with Midtown, Buckhead, and Northeast Atlanta Class A rents up 2% to 3% year over year while the Atlanta metro average shows rents down 1.5% to 2%. They cover the cost side of the business, where taxes and insurance are finally cooling while marketing costs climb, and the effect of AI on rents and underwriting, with median rent to income now at its lowest level since 2020. Carl closes on the barbell shape of today's investment sales market and where he sees opportunity in second tier Southeast markets including Greenville Spartanburg, western North Carolina, and Chattanooga. Connect with Carl Whitaker: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carlwhitaker15/ RealPage Website: https://www.realpage.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ Read More Here: https://www.bullrealty.com/intel/blog-posts/view/the-return-of-rent-growth-why-the-multifamily-recovery-is-splitting-by-class-and-submarket For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #Multifamily #MultifamilyInvesting #ApartmentInvesting #CommercialRealEstate #RentGrowth #BuildToRent #RealEstateInvesting #ApartmentMarket #CapRates #RealPage #CREShow #MichaelBull
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