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On The Market episodes
- America Doesn’t Have a Housing “Shortage” (It’s Something Much Worse)
For years, we’ve been told that the United States is short millions of homes, and that building more units is the key to solving the affordable housing crisis. But a 2024 study from Kirk McClure and Alex Schwartz reaches a different conclusion and suggests that the housing shortage narrative may be built on a shakier foundation than we’ve been led to believe.
Kirk, professor emeritus at the University of Kansas, joins today’s show to dig into the actual Census data gathered from 2000-2020 and whether it really points to a nationwide shortage…or something much different.
If we don’t have a supply problem, why are homes and rents still so expensive? Should policymakers rethink their push for new construction? And where could government dollars have the greatest impact?
We’ll unpack the implications of Kirk’s findings, why home prices can remain elevated when there are millions of vacant homes available, and whether today’s housing policies are actually helping the people who need it most. These answers could upend how we think about the housing crisis and give real estate investors another perspective on where the market might be headed.
In This Episode We Cover
Findings from Kirk’s research on America’s housing “shortage”
Where government dollars can actually help solve housing affordability
The real reason home prices and rents haven’t fallen, despite oversupply
Why declining household formation is tied to affordability, not housing supply
Why America’s K-shaped economy continues to worsen
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
A Glut of New Inventory is on the Way—How Should Investors Prepare?
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
Study: Where Is the Housing Shortage?
Decennial Census Data
Buy the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-466.
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45 min - The Trillion-Dollar Bubble Grows Bigger
AI could lead to an extinction event, but don’t worry, the stock market will be hitting all-time highs on the way there!
We’re entering a new phase of the artificial intelligence race where now CEOs from OpenAI and Anthropic are practically begging for industry-wide regulation. This all seems too… convenient. What’s really behind this new AI regulation push, and how close are we to a society-shaking event?
Dave is back to give his full take on the AI race. A lot has happened recently—warnings of dangers to humanity, rogue agents setting up untraceable communications, and AI CEOs conveniently wanting to join forces. First, we’ll touch on the Hugging Face incident that triggered an unprompted cyberattack that human oversight was kept out of; then the economic risks to all Americans (what happens if this AI bubble bursts); and finally why these CEOs are suddenly pushing regulation so hard.
Let’s get into the financials, though: these companies are losing billions of dollars every year and have extremely optimistic projections to hit. The question is, what happens if they’re off the mark? Past bubbles resulted in an almost 80% stock market crash…but this time, the AI industry is even bigger.
In This Episode We Cover
Why top AI companies suddenly want the government to “regulate” the industry
The chances of an extinction event now that AI agents can go rogue without our knowledge
The risks to real estate, the stock market, and many Americans’ retirement accounts
The trillion-dollar bubble that is looking a lot like the dot-com and railroad bubbles of decades past
Why citizens from other countries are so much more optimistic about AI than Americans
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
On The Market 390 - An Economic Bubble is Forming…Just Not for Real Estate
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
Grab Dave’s Book, Start with Strategy
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-465.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
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37 min - The Path to 8% Mortgage Rates
8% mortgage rates are now on the table, and unfortunately, that’s not even the high end of estimates for where we’re going next. With bond yields hitting 20-year peaks and no end in sight for rising inflation, we may be stuck here for a while. If you’re starting to sweat, don’t worry—we are, too. Thankfully, it’s not all bad news for the housing market, because those who pivot will profit.
After a little too much anxiety, Dave called James and Kathy to get their read on mortgage rates—what does an investor do when refinancing is off the table, selling means cutting prices and concessions, and even renovating is still so expensive? The housing market is splitting, with some sides doing great, and the others struggling to survive.
James gives his full take on how flips, renovations, and BRRRRs are doing right now, plus why he’s still excited for what is about to come in winter. Kathy is loving the builder concessions that are only getting more plentiful as rates rise, with a surprising rental helping float her portfolio. Dave is still a bit nervous and asks: should he sell the house he’s living in?
Buyers, this winter is about to be a big one. Sellers, it’s time to prepare. Investors, look at your property plans immediately after this episode.
In This Episode We Cover
The case for 8% mortgage rates (or even 11%-12% rates in the near future!)
Why we (probably) still won’t see a housing crash scenario
How to change your investment property plan if refinancing or selling was your exit
It’s about to be a “dead winter” for sellers, but what about for buyers?
Should Dave sell his own home and go back to renting? (serious question!)
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
James' BiggerPockets Profile
Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile
HousingWire: Mortgage rates: 8%, 6% or the base case?
Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-464.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
28 min - The Housing Market Correction Is Spreading
The housing market correction is about to get worse. Before, the Northeast and Midwest markets were insulated from the sizable price drops happening in places like Texas and Florida, but not anymore. The correction is spreading, and the once “safe” markets are creeping closer and closer to price cuts, concessions, and desperate sellers becoming the norm.
The question is: does this snowball into a full-blown housing crash, or is the housing market strong enough to keep us in “correction” territory? Dave is back, and this time, he’s going deep on what’s next for the housing market.
Things are changing, and not in the way sellers would want. Demand is starting to fall as buyers get boxed out of the market and high mortgage rates make homes more unaffordable. Sellers once stuck to their prices or took properties off the market to wait, but now they're offering sizable concessions and price cuts. The supply-demand equilibrium has shifted, and deals are about to get even sweeter.
So, if you’re buying today when prices very well could continue to slide, how much of a discount should you go for, and at what point do prices start to bottom?
In This Episode We Cover
Signs of more seller distress as concessions rise and price cuts grow
Why you should not believe the home price appreciation most data reports
The real reason why homebuying demand is steadily falling, and sellers have fewer options
The housing market “flip”: Why safer markets (Midwest, Northeast) could start to see price pressure
How much of a discount you should ask for when buying in this housing market
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
Calculated Risk Blog
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-463.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
36 min - Rates Were Hiked: Here’s What Investors Should Do Now
The Federal Reserve hiked rates last week, but did it actually help the housing market? Our panel of real estate investing experts isn’t all that bummed by potentially higher rates and less housing market activity—why? Because new opportunities are forming thanks to the Fed’s recent rate hike—opportunities that could make deals even better to buy in 2026 and into 2027.
We’re back discussing the biggest housing market headlines from last week. Obviously, we can’t talk about headlines without touching on the Fed meeting and subsequent rate hike. Ripples from that decision could start showing up in the real estate market soon—price cuts for some properties, canceled listings for others, and stalled sellers who refuse to budge but won’t get bids.
So, what should investors do now to ensure they’re picking up solid deals with the likelihood that prices could continue dropping across many markets? The full panel is sharing what they’re actually doing now—from paying points to cutting insurance costs, getting HELOCs ready, and more.
You can use this market to your advantage—and we already are.
In This Episode We Cover
The aftermath of the first Fed rate hike since 2023 (and what it means for home prices)
Trump's 1% federal funds rate demand and whether it could actually happen
Will sellers begin pulling out of the market as buyers begin to drop off?
What we’re doing right now to buy better deals and sell the ones that aren’t performing
The things that must be solved before interest rates can come back down
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
Henry's BiggerPockets Profile
James' BiggerPockets Profile
Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile
Quartz: Trump demands 1% interest rates after Fed hike, backs Warsh
Reuters: US homebuilder sentiment drops to 12-month low in September
Grab Henry’s Book, Real Estate Deal Maker
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-462.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
32 min - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
The U.S. government may have just lost the war on mortgage rates.
Last week, the U.S. Treasury announced one of its biggest bond buyback programs in years—a whopping $6 billion allocated to (hopefully) lower bond yields, and by proxy, interest rates. Not only did it backfire, but it may have angered the bond investors so much that the market’s recovery is now in jeopardy. Do we still have any hope of lowering bond yields and mortgage rates so the housing market can get back in business?
Today, we’re breaking down the good, the bad, and the ugly buybacks of the bond market, how this will affect your mortgage rates over the next year, and what can be done to spur confidence in bond yields (and the U.S. government). Dave even gives his mortgage rate prediction for 2027, with a range of where we could end up by this time next year.
If rates stay high and housing demand gets even more subdued, the buying opportunities, price cuts, and seller concessions could only increase. Are you going to take advantage?
In This Episode We Cover
A full update on the bond market and how the U.S. government is trying to save yields
Dave’s 2027 mortgage rate prediction and whether we could go even higher than we are now
The failed bond “buyback” strategy that could take a long time to recover from
Three reasons why bond yields (and mortgage rates) are surging right now
How the Fed raising rates could actually lower your mortgage rate in the future
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
On The Market 436 - The Fed Signals a Reversal in Rates
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
Grab Dave’s Book, Start with Strategy
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-461.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
32 min - This Is Better Than the 1% Rule (New Real Estate Rule)
The rules of real estate investing have changed.
For years, investors were using the one-percent rule to quickly determine if a real estate deal would cash flow. But the one-percent rule, rent-to-price ratio, and other common rules of thumb have a glaring blind spot. They account for purchase price, but they don’t account for expenses.
Meanwhile, mortgage rates, taxes, and insurance have all risen across the board—expenses that can easily kill your cash flow.
So, Dave’s come up with a new rule of thumb you can use to quickly analyze rental properties and markets. He’s calling it the rent-to-payment ratio. By comparing estimated rents to the estimated PITI payment itself, you’ll have a much better idea of whether a rental property will actually cash flow month to month.
And today, we’re not just breaking down how the formula works. Dave also built an entire spreadsheet that ranks U.S. real estate markets by their rent-to-payment ratios. Whether you’re looking for the best cash flow markets to invest in or a quick way to weed out unprofitable properties, this is the kind of math you need to make sharper investing decisions in 2026.
In This Episode We Cover
The “new” rule of thumb for finding great real estate deals and rental markets
Why rent-to-price ratio is a flawed metric (and which ratio to use instead)
Why the popular one-percent rule no longer works in 2026
The top 10 real estate markets with the highest rent-to-payment ratios
How to bake today’s mortgage rates, taxes, and insurance into your initial analysis
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Let Us Know What You Thought of the Show!
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
BiggerPockets Calculators
The Summer 2026 Rent-to-Payment Report: Where You Can Still Cash Flow with Real Estate
Grab Dave’s book, Real Estate by the Numbers
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-460.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
31 min - We Asked Brokers: Where Is the Biggest Buyer's Market Today?
Are the price cuts deeper than you think? Do buyers have even more power than we’ve been led to believe?
National housing data tells us one thing, but local-level expertise can paint a completely different picture. While national data points to marginal price cuts, brokers in major markets are seeing significantly more volatile numbers. We wanted to know what’s actually happening in big markets like Austin, Atlanta, Seattle, Tampa, Long Island, and beyond—so we called the actual brokers who do business there and got them on the show.
Today, we’re talking with Justin Hroch, Micah Mortag, and William ODonnell, brokers in the South, Southeast, and Northeast doing real deals for buyers, sellers, and investors. It’s no surprise that areas like the South are struggling, but how is (very expensive) New York faring with a changing political landscape and so many more regulations?
We’re getting into how long homes are sitting on the market, how much power buyers and sellers have, the price cuts you can anticipate, and what to look at before you buy a property in any of these markets.
In This Episode We Cover
Areas of the country seeing the biggest price cuts or bidding wars
What type of properties are selling fast even in slow markets like the South
The cities being buried in inventory where sellers are taking big haircuts on price
One market seeing strong appreciation, even in 2026 (we’re talking 8% price jumps!)
The “sweet spot” properties you can find in each of these areas to make a profit (regardless of how the market moves)
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
On The Market 450 - A Buyer’s Summer Is “On” as Asking Prices See Steepest Decline Since 2017
Justin's BiggerPockets Profile
Micah's BiggerPockets Profile
William's BiggerPockets Profile
James' BiggerPockets Profile
Realtor August Housing Report
Grab The Book on Negotiating Real Estate
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-459.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
38 min - Fewer Investors Are Buying Homes as the Housing Market Shifts (Again)
The housing market is sending mixed signals—or so it seems. Foreclosures are rising, yet many investors are pulling back. Cash buyers are retreating, competition is cooling in many markets, and affordability challenges appear to be catching up with investors. Are these signs of another 2008-like collapse, or is there context behind the numbers?
This week’s headlines largely point to waning investor activity. Investor home purchases are down, and the share of cash buyers is decreasing. Meanwhile, foreclosures are returning to levels we haven’t seen in several years.
But when you dig beneath the surface, nothing is as dire as it appears. Pent-up foreclosure starts are still well below historical norms. And while the market continues to cool in many areas, it’s creating rare opportunities and negotiation power for investors who are willing to go against the grain.
So where are these opportunities hiding, what secret “edge” do mom-and-pop investors have that others overlook, and how do you ensure today’s deals don’t become tomorrow’s disasters? We’re breaking it all down on today’s show.
In This Episode We Cover
How small investors can gain an edge in the current housing market
Why rising foreclosures aren’t the “warning sign” most think it is
New investing opportunities coming from decreased competition
Why many investors are leaving the housing market in 2026
How affordability challenges and regulatory risks are affecting investors
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
ATTOM: Foreclosure Activity Posts Annual Increase in First Half of 2026
Redfin: Investor Home Purchases Fall to Lowest Level Since 2020
CNBC: Cash Is No Longer King in Home Sales
Mortgage Defaults and Foreclosures Are Surging in Key Markets: What Investors Need to Know
Henry's BiggerPockets Profile
James' BiggerPockets Profile
Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile
Buy the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-458.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
28 min - AI-Fueled Mini Housing Bubbles Form as Commercial Delinquencies Rise
AI is bringing 6,000 jobs to a small Texan town, and home prices are seeing a sizable jump…but what happens once the job is done? Is this just a mini housing bubble waiting to happen, or is buying near an AI boomtown actually worth the risk? These scenarios may begin popping up more and more—what happens when it’s in your neck of the woods?
We’re back with more headlines on what’s affecting the housing market. AI-induced housing bubbles could be coming in hot as small, overlooked areas of the U.S. turn to boomtowns with more jobs and more housing demand (at least temporarily). If you are going to buy in or around one of these cities, this is what to buy so you don’t get burnt once the construction workers leave.
Fresh distress hits real estate as the “maturity wall” grows even taller. Multifamily delinquencies are up 600% from just a few years ago, and office space is struggling even with so many return-to-office announcements over the past two years. And it’s not just commercial real estate. Flippers are stuck with listings getting stale, with some 2/3 of house flippers seeing longer days on market. How do Henry and James, our house flipping experts, avoid holding a hefty hard money loan while waiting for a property to sell?
In This Episode We Cover
New AI boomtowns forming in small investing markets (and whether you should buy)
Why big properties, even though distressed, may not all fall to foreclosure any time soon
What to buy if you’re investing near a newly approved data center
Why not buying right now could be a huge mistake (even as investors struggle)
The one thing James asks from his lender to save him serious cash when a property won’t sell
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
“The Largest Infrastructure Buildout in Human History” Could Be a Massive Opportunity For Real Estate Investors
Henry's BiggerPockets Profile
James' BiggerPockets Profile
Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile
Texas Standard: Data center construction spurring a housing crisis in Abilene
CRED IQ: Property Types Feeling the August Heat
HousingWire: Fix-and-flip market shows signs of strain as mortgage rates climb
Grab James’s Book, The House Flipping Framework
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-457.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
28 min
About On The Market
From the publisher's feed
Stay informed so you can invest with confidence. Join Dave Meyer, James Dainard, Kathy Fettke and Henry Washington for analysis of the news and economics driving today’s real estate market.
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