The “engine” of the U.S. economy is starting to crack—and real estate is already feeling the effects. Just last week, we touched on the hidden “recession” affecting many Americans. Today, we’ve got even more data to back up that analysis. Americans are at a breaking point, and the long-term trends are not looking good for spending, GDP, the economy, and real estate.

If you feel economic strain, you’re not alone. We just hit a level of low confidence that hasn’t been seen in 70 years. So, how is the economy still growing? How is GDP still rising? Why haven’t we seen a traditional recession with high unemployment, stock market declines, and a pause in consumer spending? It’s not a question of “why not,” but “when will it happen?”

If you invest in real estate, this will affect you. Home prices, rent prices, and activity in your local market will change. Dave is sharing the markets where investors are quickly leaving, the others seeing the most money pour in, the property types that still make sense in this market, and what to prepare for so your rentals weather any economic storm. 

In This Episode We Cover

New economic data showing just how worried the average American is about the economy

How consumer confidence problems can quickly seep into the housing market

What to do now to start preparing your rentals for a slow season ahead

The reasons why the average American is struggling so much in 2026

How is GDP still growing when consumer confidence is so low?

What (and where) investors are buying in 2026 (property types, markets, etc.)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

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Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 427 - The 2026 Recession Is Here

On the Market 429 - The Ultimate “Stress Test” for the Housing Market: Do We Pass in 2026?

Redfin: Investor Home Purchases Fall to Lowest Level Since 2020

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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Home listing prices have been falling for weeks, and it’s not just sellers who are getting fed up. Real estate agents have finally decided to call it quits, with many reaching their breaking point and leaving the industry altogether. But a glimmer of hope is on the horizon for the market, as one of the biggest housing bills in years just passed the House of Representatives. Could this get us back on the right track?

Welcome back to this week’s headlines episode. If you thought the deals couldn’t get any better…well, it’s your lucky day (or weeks). Home listing prices have now fallen consecutively for over a dozen weeks. Buyers aren’t buying what sellers are selling, and the deals are getting sweeter. If you’re a seller, we have some crucial tips your average agent won’t tell you to start a bidding war on your property, even during a slow market.

Agents have finally decided to step away from the industry altogether, but a new housing bill could spark some life back into the housing market—this is good news for buyers! Finally, we’re going over the states with the lowest property tax bills—but are any of them worth investing in?

In This Episode We Cover

Huge changes coming to the housing market? A monumental housing bill that’s making its way to the President’s desk

Are these sellers serious? Why listing prices are falling nationwide for weeks on end

The great real estate agent exodus (and why good agents are sticking around)

The states with the lowest property tax bills (and how to ensure yours won’t jump)

James’s undeniable loathing of the Seattle, Washington permitting department

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

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James' BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 429 - The Ultimate “Stress Test” for the Housing Market: Do We Pass in 2026?

Realtor: Weekly Housing Trends 

WSJ: Real-Estate Agents Are Quitting the Slow Housing Market

U.S. News: Inside the Sweeping Bipartisan Housing Bill Headed to Trump

Kiplinger: States With the Lowest Property Tax Bills Ranked by Affordability

Grab Henry’s Book, Real Estate Deal Maker

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Every recession, crash, and major change in the real estate market has its warning signs. And while most people think these can only be seen in hindsight, we have “stress tests” today that signal corrections, crashes, or rising prices to come. These tests not only test the housing market, but also the economy as a whole, to tell us whether we’re going to spiral down for years or stay afloat.

Today, we’re looking at one of the greatest “stress tests” of the housing market—credit.

The “canary in the coalmine” of real estate is forced selling. Once this begins, the domino effect can easily get out of control. When sellers can’t pay their bills, and are forced to sell, a race to the bottom is almost inevitable—and there’s one part of the real estate market where this exact scenario is ramping up—fast.

In today’s show, we’re detailing the assets and regions most at risk, comparing 2026’s economy to 2008/2009 to see where we stand, going over foreclosure and delinquency numbers, and touching on the newest (concerning) consumer debt numbers quickly starting to rise—will the spillover put the housing market in danger? 

In This Episode We Cover

Our latest “credit stress” report and who is (and isn’t) paying their mortgages

2008 vs. 2026 housing market stats: foreclosures, delinquencies, and more

Forced selling has already begun for one (formerly profitable) type of real estate

The corner of the housing market seeing double-digit delinquency rates in 2026

Newest consumer debt numbers and why they should concern many Americans

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

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On the Market 427 - The 2026 Recession is Here

BiggerPockets Forums

New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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More and more Americans are feeling confused about the housing market. Home prices are coming down, and mortgage rates are jumping back up. One day, everyone wants one type of property; the next, it’s being sold at a discount. If you get stuck in the herd mentality, you’ll miss what’s right in front of your eyes—profitable real estate deals 99% of investors are passing over.

Don’t believe us? Today, the most active investor we know, James Dainard, is sharing how he’s scoring a 95% projected return real estate deal, found in May 2026 (that’s right!).

James does more deals than anyone we know, making him the perfect person to give his take on how to win in this housing market. In James’s view, investors are overlooking many solid real estate deals—and this is where the real money is made. But how do you find opportunities when the market changes every few weeks? James breaks down exactly what he does to find the hidden gems that turn into outsized returns—including one with a huge potential payoff. 

In This Episode We Cover

How to find real estate deals even in a quickly changing housing market

Buy what others ignore: the profitable properties most investors are sleeping on

Ask your real estate agent/broker THIS to spot the hidden gems in your market

How James turned a sub-par renovation project into a 95% projected return house flip

The vendors you need to get in contact with now to be ready to strike

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter

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BiggerPockets Real Estate 1278 - Homes Sit on Market for Longest in Years | May 2026 Housing Market Update

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

James' BiggerPockets Profile

Grab James’ Book, The House Flipping Framework

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The 2026 recession is here. You feel it. I feel it. GDP is growing, but the cost of living is rising, affordability is at a multi-decade low, and consumer sentiment is at its lowest level in 70 years. The stock market is ripping, but Americans are struggling daily. Economists will tell you it’s not a recession (at least not yet), but according to my recession indicator…we’re there. 

Last November, I created a new recession indicator. It wasn’t tied to GDP, asset values, or sentiment. It was tied to the average American struggling to get by. As of last week, this recession indicator threw up a strong yellow flag, signaling that we’ve reached a turning point—and the direction we’re going isn’t giving us much hope.

This will affect the housing market and rent prices for real estate investors. I give my full forecast on how this could affect the market, but also share exactly what I’m doing right now to put myself in the best position to weather the storm and, hopefully, pick up discounted deals as they come along. 

Well-situated investors can survive this, but those that are already running their portfolios with little wiggle room might be in for a big surprise. 

In This Episode We Cover

The recession indicator that got triggered just last week (and what it means for the economy)

My new definition of “recession” and why we must rethink what a “recession” even is

How this new recession could hurt the housing market and investors

What I’m doing right now to prepare for the recession and put my portfolio in a strong position

A concerning data point about the affordability of average Americans (this includes renters)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter

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Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 372 - New Recession Indicator Shows Americans Worse Off Than We Thought

On the Market 413 - Real Estate Isn't as Safe From Inflation as You Think

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-427.

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Just when we thought it was handled, inflation is starting to surge back—and mortgage rates are already adjusting fast. But, for real estate investors, there’s a silver lining. Some markets are seeing rising rents and lower home prices, making it an ideal buying scenario for investors if they can hang on to the property during these high-rate times.

It’s been a wild week in the housing market, and we’re unpacking everything in this headline episode. 

First, we’ll talk about the new inflation numbers. You probably already know they’re not great, but could they force the Fed to resume raising rates? We have a…lively…discussion about it. Next, investors lose millions of dollars in the newest real estate “scam” run by a trusted community member. This isn’t something new, so we’re sharing the exact steps you should take before ever wiring someone money for a real estate deal.

Big buyers gain ground on a new housing bill as an amended version drops language many investors had considered a lock. Finally, we’re going over the cities with the fastest rising (and falling) rent prices in 2026—and which markets are seeing the perfect storm of rising rents and declining home prices. 

In This Episode We Cover

Inflation surges, but what effect will it have on mortgage rates?

The cities that saw the highest rent increases in 2026 (and where rents are falling)

The newest passive investing “scam” that’s costing real estate investors millions

Big buyers aren’t getting banned? A new update to the latest housing bill

The argument for the Fed reversing course and raising rates once again

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

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Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

James' BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 399 - Buying (and Building) Houses Could Get a LOT Easier (New Bill)

TheRealDeal: House knocks build-to-rent provision from amended Senate bill

AP News: Ex-Brooklyn judge accused of swindling real estate investors out of millions of dollars

SmartAsset: Where Rent Increased and Decreased Most – 2026 Study

Grab Dave’s Book, Real Estate by the Numbers

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New 2026 housing market forecasts have changed…dramatically. A major downgrade for home sales from NAR, a home price forecast revision from Zillow, and a new mortgage rate range from Fannie Mae. The industry is quickly growing much more anxious.

At the start of the year, the consensus was for modest price growth, lower mortgage rates, and improved home sale numbers—that’s not where we’re at right now. Between inflation fears resurfacing, interest rates climbing again, and major geopolitical earthquakes, just months into the year, real estate forecasters are changing course.

Today, we’re going through all the top forecasts for home prices, mortgage rates, and home sales from Fannie Mae, JP Morgan, NAR, and Zillow. 

But what about Dave’s 2026 forecast? How has it held up through wars, oil price spikes, and a changing Federal Reserve? Dave reviews his exact 2026 housing market forecast and whether he would change it now.

In This Episode We Cover

Updated home sales, home price, and mortgage rate predictions from major players in real estate

Zillow’s latest home price downgrade and why we’re inching toward falling home values

NAR slashes their home sales forecast significantly, but what do they say it’ll do to prices?

Housing crash consensus? What major forecasters and economists are saying about the chances

Reviewing Dave’s 2026 housing market forecast and whether he’s changing it in this new economic climate

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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On the Market 408 - Melody Wright's Honest Take On the “Worse Than 2008” Claim

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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One type of investment property is experiencing severe undersupply with a 20-year demographic tailwind on the way. Demand is growing, new supply isn’t even hitting a quarter of the need, and investors are writing off much of this industry as already past its peak. Is this a strategic opportunity to invest in an asset so obvious it’s been overlooked? 

Of course, we’re talking about senior living investments. 

Jerry Vinci, founder of CCR Growth, growth partners in senior housing, saw firsthand why investing in senior living is so crucial. Jerry watched all four of his grandparents move into senior living and witnessed the chaos, stress, and struggle of navigating such a crucial time in their lives. 

Now, Jerry works to help underwrite and optimize senior living facilities, and as an industry insider, he’s seeing a change.

Demand is growing…fast. Even the youngest boomers are turning 65 in 2030, and the pipeline of 80+ year olds needing housing is starting to reach a bottleneck. Today, we’re talking about the wave of demand coming (and expected to sustain for two more decades), how investors can get started if they have no experience, the questions to ask before investing in a senior living facility, and why in senior living your market is more crucial than traditional real estate investing. 

In This Episode We Cover

The “20-year cycle” that could funnel millions more Baby Boomers into senior housing

Who should be investing in small senior housing properties (5-10 residents)

The different types of senior living investments (from independent living to memory care and more)

Ask these questions to any operator you may be investing with

The massive supply bottleneck that cannot keep pace with senior living demand

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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Investing in Senior Housing Can Be Extremely Profitable—But You Need To Know What You’re Doing

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CCR Growth 

Nordon Advisory

Real Estate by the Numbers

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The national debt just hit a dangerous new milestone, surpassing GDP—and the last time this happened, we just ended a world war. You already know the U.S. is heavily in debt—most Americans do—but nobody is asking the right question: at what point does this spiral out of control and force something in the economy to break? 

Today, Dave is unpacking the next steps and the scenarios that could unfold once our debt reaches a point where our options to solve this become dangerous. And the effects could be massive for real estate investors, unless they begin preparing themselves now.

First, we’ll go over how we even got here, what makes up the majority of our national debt, and what we can cut to end this out-of-control spending. Next, the two scenarios, one of which could put real estate investors in a dangerous position. Dave is preparing, starting now, even if the worst effects don’t hit for years. 

With no sign of either political party meaningfully lowering the debt, this isn’t a matter of “if” real estate is affected, but when. 

In This Episode We Cover

The dangerous new milestone our national debt has just hit (can we reverse course?)

What real estate investors need to start doing now to protect their future selves

Why mortgage rates could “spiral” up as the U.S. looks for a solution to pay off debt 

Who’s to blame? Which administrations caused the debt to grow

Where 75% of our tax revenue is going (why the debt keeps rising)

And So Much More!

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On the Market 413 - Real Estate Isn’t as Safe From Inflation as You Think

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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U.S. home prices have officially turned negative. For many months, sellers have resisted adjusting to current market conditions—until now. This could bring short-term pain for flippers and sellers, but overall, it’s a step in the right direction for a housing market that desperately needs prices to soften before it can become unstuck.

We’re back with more headlines from last week, including new data that suggests foreclosures are quietly approaching pre-pandemic levels. Inflation remains high, and affordability continues to be an issue, but how close are we to seeing serious distress?

On the topic of affordability, home builders are no longer being held to the 2021 International Energy Conservation Code, meaning new construction homes could become available at an even more affordable price point in the future. Meanwhile, wages are up. Despite rent growth remaining relatively flat, renters have more breathing room, which is ultimately a good sign for the overall health of the housing market, as well as for investors who want more predictable rental income.

In This Episode We Cover

Sellers are finally backing down as national home prices turn negative

New investing opportunities from rising foreclosures and bank-owned homes

Why new construction could become even more affordable in the future

Home builders get a big break as energy-efficiency standards are rolled back

Why higher wages are a big win for investors, despite stagnant rent prices

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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BiggerPockets Real Estate 1210 – 2026 Home Price Predictions: The Correction Continues?

Weekly Housing Trends: U.S. Market Update (Week Ending April 18, 2026)

Auction.com: Q1 2026 foreclosure auction activity is nearing pre-pandemic levels

HUD, USDA Rescind Rule Tying New Homes to 2021 Energy Code

Renters gain more than $2,300 in breathing room as rent growth hits slowest pace since 2020

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Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

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Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab Dave’s Book, Start with Strategy

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