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This isn’t a “good” housing market for anyone. Affordability remains a major barrier to homeownership. Sellers aren’t getting what they want for their homes. Now, builders are signaling that the current housing shortage could get even worse. It’s bad news for aspiring homeowners, but could it finally put a floor on this housing market correction?
This week’s headlines highlight how affordability challenges are reaching every corner of the housing market—not just for buyers. A perfect storm of high interest rates, stagnant home prices, and rising material and labor costs is putting builders under pressure, too. As a result, housing starts and single-family home completions have reached their lowest levels since 2020. But could this slowdown ultimately limit how far home prices can fall?
At the same time, there are other factors keeping homes off the market—like a potential capital gains tax problem discouraging many baby boomers from listing their homes for sale. Meanwhile, house flippers are worried about another tax coming down the pipeline that could eat into even more of their profits. Everyone’s feeling the squeeze, but could these pressures causing the market to bend be the same forces that prevent it from breaking?
In This Episode We Cover
Why the single-family market correction may have just found its floor
Why many homebuilders are building less amid a national housing shortage
Whether we should raise the capital gains tax exclusion for homeowners
A new tax that could cost house flippers even more of their margins
Three issues that are potentially contributing to a stagnant housing market
And So Much More!
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Flippers Supplied 2x More Starter Homes Than Builders in 2025
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CRE Daily: US Housing Starts Slow, Giving Apartments Room to Recover
AEI Housing Center: Capital Gains Rules on Home Sales and Senior Homeowner Lock In
The Real Deal: “The math has stopped working”: NYC home flipping drops as state legislators propose new tax
Grab The Book on Tax Strategies for the Savvy Real Estate Investor
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-446.
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The average American will not be able to retire. 50% are going into their golden years with less than $500,000—significantly short of what would even be considered a livable retirement amount. Social Security only has so long before payments begin to get cut, and retiring during a stock market crash, or even a correction, can put you at sizable risk of returning to work.
But one asset can help you retire with less, reach retirement (or even early retirement) faster, and do so without putting your future freedom at risk—real estate. Today, Dave is going to prove why so many of his retirement plans sit on rental properties as a stable base, and how Americans can retire with up to 50% less using real estate, as opposed to stocks and bonds.
This flips the entire retirement equation on its head. Now you don’t need to bet on the market, you don’t need to hope and pray Social Security will exist when it’s your turn to collect, and you don’t need to hit some sky-high ($4,000,000+) retirement number just to live a comfortable life.
This is the faster, and arguably safer, formula for retirement in 2026 and beyond.
In This Episode We Cover
How to retire with far less using real estate cash flow (instead of selling stocks)
How much you actually need to retire in the United States (inflation-adjusted)
The real estate retirement framework that gives you better returns, more cash flow, and a simpler path
Why 81% of Americans are at risk of never being able to comfortably, confidently retire
The problem with building a cash flow-focused real estate portfolio too early (it will cost you)
And So Much More!
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How Much Passive Income is Enough to Retire With?
Schroders US Retirement Survey
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Grab Dave’s Book, Real Estate by the Numbers
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-445.
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Zillow is seeing “signs of life” emerging in the housing market. Strong demand, days pending hitting pre-pandemic levels, and serious cash flow in specific markets. How long will this last, and what happens when new construction completions fall off a cliff in the near future? Will rents and home prices reverse, going from stable (and even falling) to rising as demand outpaces supply even more?
Orphe Divounguy, Zillow Senior Economist, is back to share the most up-to-date housing market data. Orphe brings good news—sales are increasing, demand is surprisingly strong, and a recovery (albeit fragile) for the housing market is underway. Some markets are seeing a drastic increase in sales; others are seeing almost unbelievably strong cash flow (Orphe is talking $1,000/month), so which markets are which?
Finally, how long will this last? We keep talking about buyers getting discounts off of list price or serious seller concessions, but are we months or years away from this ending? With multifamily supply about to see a serious dropoff, the demand for housing (and rentals) could get even higher. Orphe breaks it all down!
In This Episode We Cover
The housing markets currently seeing strong cash flow even at list price (up to $1,000/month cash flow!)
Markets with the most home sales and why they’re beating many other major metros
Why rent and home prices could “firm” up once this happens in the housing market
No escaping this housing supply shortage? The reason why flat/declining population won’t crash housing
Sellers: How to price your home to get the highest (and quickest) sale (do not overprice)
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
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On The Market 433 - New Data: U.S. Home Prices Are Hitting Their Floor
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Learn More from Orphe’s Team
Grab Dave’s Book, Real Estate by the Numbers
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-444.
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You won’t believe why mortgage rates are going back up. It’s not because of the war, it’s not because of gas prices, and it’s not because of the Federal Reserve. Something nobody is talking about is playing a much bigger role in mortgage rates than most Americans think. It’s making big corporations richer while the average American continues to struggle to buy a home.
What is the hidden factor nobody’s talking about?
Today, Dave is getting into it, unpacking not only the real reason why mortgage rates are heading back toward 7%, but the loaded week of housing market news. First, we’ll touch on mortgage rates and the two reasons why they’re shooting back up even after a surprisingly positive inflation report. Then, the historic housing bill that successfully became law and what it really says in the fine print (is Wall Street actually banned?).
Finally, why rising student loan delinquencies could mean more renter demand and fewer home sales for millions of Americans.
In This Episode We Cover
The real reason why mortgage rates are going up even if inflation readings are falling
What’s actually in the historic 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act?
Wall Street’s “ban” on buying houses and what the fine print says
Cracks forming in student loan repayments and how it could trickle down to housing (more renter demand?)
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
Hear Our Full Episode on the Historic Housing Bill
Grab Dave’s Book, Start with Strategy
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-443.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
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The first half of the 2026 housing market is over, and now it’s time to answer the question everyone wants to know: What’s next? Will the market slow down even more and bring lower prices for patient buyers, or will a (surprisingly) resilient US economy finally give buyers what they’re looking for? We’re split. We’re disagreeing. And today, we’re giving our updated 2026 housing market predictions.
A long, slow, painful housing market could be in store for some, while a “booming” environment could be coming for others—which one will it be for you? We’re breaking it down, based on your exact market, property type, and whether you’re buying, selling, or holding and waiting.
One type of property James is warning you to actively avoid; Kathy is saying certain markets will bring huge benefits to those who buy in them early; and Dave sees bad signs for the American consumer, which could spill even more into the housing market.
Get ahead of the housing market—these are our H2 2026 housing market predictions.
In This Episode We Cover
Why an even slower, more painful market could be in store for 2026 sellers
The passive income play that Dave is doubling down on as rentals suffer
Flipping a house? What James warns you to do so you don’t lose money on your sale
The rental markets Kathy is currently eyeing to get deals before prices pop
Sobering signs that American consumers are still far from ready to buy
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
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On The Market 431 - The “Engine” of the U.S. Economy is Starting to Crack
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Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-442.
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Workers Are Feeling the AI Squeeze: How It Could Define the Next Housing CyclePodcast Description
If you ask the average American, AI is taking over, as are the headlines warning that it’s coming for our jobs. Open LinkedIn, and you’ll see stories about chatbots replacing employees, hiring freezes, and departments being downsized. But when you dig into the actual data, it’s murky at best. So, what’s really happening, and how should real estate investors prepare?
On one hand, unemployment remains relatively low, and layoffs aren’t surging across the U.S.—not yet at least. In fact, many economists are still projecting positive job growth in the short term. On the other hand, you have growing concerns among what seems like most American workers. Fear about job displacement. Career uncertainty. The pressure to stay employable.
Then there’s the trickle-down impact on the housing market. Rising unemployment affects the biggest renter demographic in the nation. Do real estate investors need to temper expectations for rental demand and rent growth for the foreseeable future? Does “conservative” investment analysis need to go to another level? We’re breaking it all down, plus much more, on today’s show.
In This Episode We Cover
What to make of “murky” data surrounding AI’s impact on the U.S. job market
Why Americans are becoming increasingly worried about AI-caused layoffs (despite “positive” forecasting)
Two ways that widespread adoption of AI could affect the housing market
Why real estate investors should prepare for lower rental demand and rent growth
Which real estate markets are the best long-term bets as AI reshapes the economy
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
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Worried About AI? Here’s How Real Estate Is Changing Faster Than Ever
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World Economic Forum: The Future of Jobs Reports 2025
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Employment Situation Summary
Mercer: Global Talent Trends 2026. Solving the Human-Machine Equation
Resume Now: AI Disruption: 9 in 10 Workers Fear Job Loss to Automation
Challenger, Gray, & Christmas: Challenger Report December 2025
CNBC: Satya Nadella Says as Much as 30% of Microsoft Code Is Written by AI
McKinsey Global Institute: Agents, Robots, and Us: Skill Partnerships in the Age of AI
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): Firm Data on AI
Buy the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-441.
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We’ve officially reached the halfway point of 2026, and the housing market still feels…stuck.
The economy is in limbo. Home prices haven’t tanked. And we aren’t seeing significant large multifamily distress...not yet at least. Is it just a matter of time before the other shoe finally drops, or is this market more resilient than we expected?
Brian Burke is back to give his pulse check on the 2026 housing market. What has changed? Has anything changed?
We’re breaking down some of the predictions we made earlier in the year, the biggest surprises from the last six months, and how we’re adjusting our expectations for 2027 and beyond.
The truth is, this “boring” market is exactly the kind of environment that has made disciplined real estate investors very wealthy. Residential real estate values are holding steady, and commercial real estate could be set up for a 10-year bull run.
So, is it a better time to buy than the headlines suggest—or will those holding out for a 2008-style housing crash be proven right?
In This Episode We Cover
Brian Burke’s mid-year pulse check on the 2026 housing market
The 10-year commercial real estate bull run that could kick off in 2028
How to create long-term wealth with “smart” portfolio construction
Why we haven’t seen significant large multifamily distress (yet)
The three “types” of real estate syndication failure (and why they matter)
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
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BiggerPockets Real Estate 1293 – The Strongest Sign for the Housing Market in Years | June 2026 Update
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The Hands-Off Investor
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Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-440.
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We’ve all seen the data. Home prices are falling but remain relatively “flat,” year over year.
There’s just one problem: the data is lying.
We’re in a full-blown buyer’s market now, and what investors are actually paying for homes is much less than most people realize.
Behind the scenes, buyers are negotiating thousands—even tens of thousands—of dollars in seller concessions that never show up in home sales data. Closing costs. Interest rate buydowns. Repair credits. Even cash.
These concessions are quietly driving the real cost of homes much lower than the numbers suggest. In fact, nearly half of all home sales now include some kind of seller concession, and that’s on top of the price drops we’re seeing in many markets.
How much are investors really saving? The amount is often capped based on the deal and the loan. But even these concession limits have workarounds.
If you use this two-pronged strategy for negotiating asking price and concessions, you’ll have a clear path to saving 3%, 5%, or maybe even upward of 10% on your next deal. This is the kind of advantage that can make the numbers work, even in the toughest of markets.
In This Episode We Cover
Why the median home sale price isn’t what investors are actually paying in 2026
How to negotiate massive discounts on properties in most markets
Two ways to get around the seller concession limits for investors
The markets with the highest percentage of home sales with seller concessions
A “balanced” strategy for scoring a lower purchase price and seller concessions
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
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11 Items You Can Negotiate in a Real Estate Deal
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Redfin: 46% of Home Sellers Gave Concessions to Buyers in May, the Highest Share on Record for That Month
Redfin: America’s Housing Market Favors Buyers—But Their Advantage Is Starting to Shrink
Grab the Book on Negotiating Real Estate
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-439.
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You’ve seen the headlines. The housing market is stuck. Distress is rising. But if you dig beneath the surface, the actual data tells a different story. The market isn’t in freefall, and in many places, there’s more “stability” than most people think. And small investors are quietly taking the lead.
This week’s stories all point the same way. Inventory is essentially “flat,” up just 0.25% year over year. Luxury supply is rising, but homes floating around the median home price—the kind “mom-and-pop” investors like you and I are buying—remain tight. Meanwhile, the percentage of home sales to investors is climbing, with the dial gradually swinging toward the “small” investor.
And then there’s what’s happening in Washington. On Wednesday, President Trump canceled the signing of the biggest housing bill in decades. For now, we’ll have to wait a little longer until it becomes law. But if (or when) it gets passed, how will it actually impact the housing market? Are its benefits for the average American being overstated, or is this the supply-side reform we’ve been waiting for?
In This Episode We Cover
Why the 2026 housing market is more “stable” than most investors think
Where “small” investors are taking a larger share of recent home sales
What comes next after President Trump canceled the signing of the new housing bill
How the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act will affect the market (if or when it’s passed)
The two types of markets where inventory is either rising up or trending down
And So Much More!
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Baselane: Automate your rental cash flow for a chance to win $10K plus BiggerPockets Pro members get a free upgrade to Baselane Smart. Sign up now
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A New Bill Proposes Tax-Free Savings for Homeownership—Here’s How It Could Help Prospective Investors
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Baselane is a financial technology company and is not an FDIC-insured bank. Banking services provided by Thread Bank, Member FDIC.NO PURCH. NEC. Open to legal residents of 50 US/DC, 18+ & are
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Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-438.
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The peace deal between the U.S. and Iran has been agreed to (at least for now). The Strait of Hormuz, the chokehold on 20% of the world’s oil, is starting to open back up, and trade can, at least temporarily, continue. The question is, will inflation begin to fall if oil flows (more) freely through the Middle East? And if inflation falls, could mortgage rates be right behind them?
Today, we’re talking about what could actually happen from here on out. We’ve seen a lot of opinions recently saying this deal could boost the economy and the housing market, or bring mortgage rates back down to earth. The question is, will any of that actually happen? As real estate investors, knowing what’s coming down the pipeline can give you a huge advantage, but believing the wrong narrative can cost you.
So today, I’m giving you my honest, data-backed take on what happens next. Will inflation and mortgage rates retreat? When could we begin to see the effects of the open Strait? Will the housing market bounce back as the supply chain heals? And what should a real estate investor be on the lookout for before the changes hit our economy?
In This Episode We Cover
What really happens to mortgage rates when oil begins to flow and inflationary pressures ease?
Why economists are saying we could be “warm for a while” in this economy
Does Dave think rates will fall below 6% any time in 2026 (and if not, where will they be)?
The two things that could lead us to lower mortgage rates (one is good, one is…not)
The real effects the housing market will feel once the Strait is fully opened again
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
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On The Market 432 - J Scott: We Have 1-2 Months Before the Economy Begins to Break
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Oxford Economics: US PCE Nowcast – Headline inflation will creep above 4%
CNBC: Bank of America expects three Fed hikes this year, says inflation is getting ‘unambiguously worse’
NAR Housing Affordability Index
Grab the Book on Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-437.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
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