The peace deal between the U.S. and Iran has been agreed to (at least for now). The Strait of Hormuz, the chokehold on 20% of the world’s oil, is starting to open back up, and trade can, at least temporarily, continue. The question is, will inflation begin to fall if oil flows (more) freely through the Middle East? And if inflation falls, could mortgage rates be right behind them?

Today, we’re talking about what could actually happen from here on out. We’ve seen a lot of opinions recently saying this deal could boost the economy and the housing market, or bring mortgage rates back down to earth. The question is, will any of that actually happen? As real estate investors, knowing what’s coming down the pipeline can give you a huge advantage, but believing the wrong narrative can cost you.

So today, I’m giving you my honest, data-backed take on what happens next. Will inflation and mortgage rates retreat? When could we begin to see the effects of the open Strait? Will the housing market bounce back as the supply chain heals? And what should a real estate investor be on the lookout for before the changes hit our economy?

In This Episode We Cover

What really happens to mortgage rates when oil begins to flow and inflationary pressures ease?

Why economists are saying we could be “warm for a while” in this economy

Does Dave think rates will fall below 6% any time in 2026 (and if not, where will they be)?

The two things that could lead us to lower mortgage rates (one is good, one is…not)

The real effects the housing market will feel once the Strait is fully opened again

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

On The Market 432 - J Scott: We Have 1-2 Months Before the Economy Begins to Break

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Oxford Economics: US PCE Nowcast – Headline inflation will creep above 4%

CNBC: Bank of America expects three Fed hikes this year, says inflation is getting ‘unambiguously worse’

NAR Housing Affordability Index

Grab the Book on Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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