In today's podcast we reflect on last year’s HS2 north project cancellation and, one year one, explore what lessons might be learnt for future major project delivery as we move into the Starmer government era.

Now, I have been writing about infrastructure projects for 30 years and it seems that when you look back, one consistent theme constantly crops up – the delivery of major infrastructure projects is troublesome to say the least. As an industry we continuously over-promise when it comes to budgets and programme and under-deliver when it comes to social, economic and environmental outcomes. 

I’m thinking Jubilee Line Extension, Heathrow T5, Channel Rail Link, Crossrail – all fantastic assets today, but the delivery process has left the industry’s reputation in the eyes of the public and politicians in tatters. 

In fact, according to book “How Big Things Get Done” by Flyvbjerg and Gadner, 99.5% of major projects worldwide are over budget, over time and fail to deliver their expected benefits.

So when then Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced to the Conservative Party Conference in October 2023 that phase 2 of the HS2 project beyond the West Midlands would be cancelled and replaced with “Network North”, a £36bn hastily thrown together hotch potch of transport projects, it was hardly a surprise.

HS2, said Sunak. “is a project whose costs have more than doubled, which has been repeatedly delayed and it is not scheduled to reach Manchester for almost two decades… … and for which the economic case has massively weakened with the changes to business travel post Covid.”  

Much disappointment and derision followed. HS2 will now run only from London to Birmingham, with the Oak Common to Euston link on hold until a private sector backed solution can be found. The industry’s reputation for delivery sent once again into the bin.

I say again because this is not the first example of politically driven descoping as politicians run out of patience waiting for a ribbon to cut. Think the Channel Tunnel in the 1970s, the Crossrail project in the late 1980s, the Advanced Passenger Train in the 1990s, numerous tram projects in the noughties. Of course many of these projects eventually restarted and reaped benefits beyond expectation..

The question is why do they seem to have such troubled births? It warrants deeper discussion. It is therefore my pleasure to welcome Kay Hughes, former HS2 design director and Andy Murray, executive director at the Major Projects Association who have just jointly authored a new report looking specifically at what the major projects sector can learn from this recent HS2 cancellation experience.

Resources
-MPA report: "Cancellation of major projects: Perspectives on rethinking the approach to major projects inspired from HS2 Phase 2 lessons"
-MPA Prestige Lecture 2024: The Politics of Projects: Professor Ben Ansell
-HS2 North Cancellation announcement
-Network North
-How Big Things Get Done