IFS Zooms In: The Economy

117 days after Labour took office, Rachel Reeves has finally delivered her Budget.

From tax rises and fiscal rules, to public services and investment, we'll take a tour around all of the big announcements. 

Paul is joined by Helen Miller and Ben Zaranko, colleagues at the IFS.

Find out more: https://www.ifs.org.uk/

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In our first ever live episode, we're going to look at how Rachel Reeves can make her first Budget a success.

It will have been 117 days since Labour took power before we finally hear what is in the Budget - in that time we’ve heard about £22bn 'black holes' and the difficult economic situation the UK faces. We’re going to think a bit about some of the challenges facing the Chancellor, what she can learn from previous Budgets and how she can navigate these complexities.

Paul is joined by colleague Helen Miller, Deputy Director at IFS, Lord Stewart Wood, a Labour peer and former member under Tony Blair’s government of the Chancellor of the Exchequer's Council of Economic Advisers, and Stephen Bush, associate editor and columnist at the Financial Times.

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Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts

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The budget coming up in a few weeks will be one of the big moments for Labour to set out their policy agenda.

Over the summer, the government set out what it considers a difficult public finance picture - including a supposed £22bn ‘black hole’. The Labour manifesto promised big improvements to public services, and the prime minister has since promised no return to austerity. Meanwhile, the chancellor has promised that the upcoming Budget will be a ‘Budget for investment’. And there’s those promises to get debt falling, and not to raise the main rates of income tax or corporation tax, or to raise national insurance or VAT at all.

So how could they meet their fiscal targets while also fixing public services and increasing investment? What is the public finance picture looking like? And will there be enough resource to tackle some of the challenges facing the UK economy?

To explore these questions, Paul is joined by Carl Emmerson and Ben Zaranko.

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There’s been lots of speculation that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is looking to raise Capital Gains tax in her upcoming budget. 

Capital Gains tax raises around £15 billion a year, which is less than 2% of total tax revenue, and it’s paid by less than 1% of the adult population. But it’s important for both the fairness and efficiency of the tax system. 

In this episode, we’ll explore why CGT reform is necessary and how changes could make the tax system fairer, more efficient, and better aligned with long-term economic growth. We’ll also ask what Rachel Reeves would need to do if she wants to raise significant additional revenue from taxing capital gains.  

To explore that, Paul is joined by IFS Deputy Director, Helen Miller and Dan Neidle, a tax lawyer and founder of Tax Policy Associates. 

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Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts

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Currently, around 4.3 million children - that’s around 30% of all kids - are living in relative poverty. Since 2010 that figure has risen by over 700,000 and the new government has made tackling child poverty one of its key policy objectives, with a cross-government strategy due to be published in 2025.

In today’s episode, we’ll explore the factors contributing to this increase in child poverty, including changes to the benefits system, housing challenges, and the broader economic context. We’ll look at the long-run impacts that child poverty has and examine the potential policy options available to reduce child poverty.

To do that, Carl is joined by Tom Waters and Christine Farquharson.

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Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts

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Since the introduction of auto-enrolment over 10 years ago, more people than ever are saving into a workplace pension than ever before. However, new research from the IFS shows that approximately 30% to 40% of private sector employees (5 to 7 million people) saving in defined contribution pension schemes are on course to have individual incomes that fall short of standard benchmarks in retirement.

What changes should government make to the auto-enrolment policy? How much do people need to save? What about self-employed people?

To answer these questions, Paul is joined by Jonathan Cribb and Carl Emmerson from the IFS.

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We’re looking at the benefits system and answering the questions likely being asked by government ministers: how can the rising costs of benefits be managed, and what changes could improve the system?

With disability and incapacity benefit caseloads rising and the Universal Credit rollout still ongoing, what options does the government have to address these challenges? How might frozen housing support and past cuts to working-age benefits be impacting the most vulnerable? Should the government abolish the two-child limit?

To tackle these questions, Paul is joined by Tom Waters and Carl Emmerson from the IFS.

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Over the summer we’re bringing you a series of briefings on the key challenges and policy options facing the new set of government ministers. Today we’re turning to the tax system and we’ll answer the questions that the Chancellor has almost certainly been asking Treasury officials in recent weeks: how could more tax revenue be raised and how could tax reform boost growth.

Rachel Reeves has ruled out tax rises on 'working people', saying that there will be no increase of income tax, VAT, National Insurance or Corporation Tax. What areas of tax does this leave to fill the shortfall in the public finances? Which taxes could be reformed to boost growth?

To tackle those questions, Paul is joined by Dan Neidle a tax lawyer and founder of Tax Policy Associates and Helen Miller, Deputy Director at the IFS.

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Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts 

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Over the coming weeks, we’re bringing you a series of briefings looking at key areas of government and analysing their performance over recent years, the challenges they face and the solutions the new government may look to help them.

This week, we’ll be looking at higher and further education.

 Over recent months, we’ve heard lots of stories about the pressures on university finances, and concern that some universities may go bust. We’ll discuss why this is, what happens if a university goes bust and whether government can do anything to fix the problem. We’ll also discuss longer-term challenges facing the higher and further education sectors.

We're joined by Jack Britton and Christine Farquharson, IFS education experts.

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Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts 

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Over the next few weeks, we’re bringing you a series of briefings looking at key areas of government and analysing how they have performed over recent years, what challenges they face and which solutions are on the table.

This week we'll start with the NHS - the UK's biggest public service.

We're joined by Ben Zaranko and Max Warner, IFS experts, to discuss the big challenges facing the NHS, and what Labour will do about them.

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Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts

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