Helen Miller is joined by IFS colleagues Ben Zaranko and Bee Boileau to discuss the Spring Forecast. The headline numbers haven’t moved much since the autumn, but that stability may not last. With conflict in the Middle East pushing up oil and gas prices, the UK faces a potential negative shock: higher inflation, pressure on interest rates, and a tougher outlook for households, businesses and the public finances.

We discuss what higher energy prices could mean for government policy (from fuel duty to targeted support), why calls to raise defence spending are growing, and the scale of the trade-offs involved. We also look at three key forecast uncertainties: unemployment, migration, and volatile capital gains tax receipts. Finally, we ask how realistic tight future spending plans look ahead of the next Spending Review.

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