Hollywood Breaks

This week we bring back guest Cameron Dillavou, Head of Prime Video Global Strategy, to share insights into Prime Video’s success in Oscar nominations, NFL Contracts and what it takes to make a worldwide brand like Prime relevant for every viewing experience.

With Disney+ as 100M+ Subscriber base, the Mouse House doesn’t give in to Cinemark and walks away from Raya movie fans. Theaters open up and are filling up, but the capacity holds back healthy returns for distributors, so studios are finding pre-pandemic deals may fall short.

Our special guest Kyle Davies brings some huge enthusiasm for the return to theaters. From his experience in exhibition and distribution at Dreamworks, Relativity and most recent Head of Domestic Distribution at Paramount, Kyle shares the inside scoop on the changes and challenges due to the Pandemic. “The pandemic has accelerated a friction and the distribution windows are at the core”.

Sony Pictures Chair Tom Rothmam pulls from his inner Beyonce and encourages that we will get back into the theaters “if we Make Dope Shit”. The sentiment seems to be rising that the theater experience will fulfill a different purpose than just paying the bills for studios blockbuster strategy. The exhibition of a cinematic experience will need to focus on the execution of the art more than the form in order to get viewers back in the seats.  

This week was the roll out of Paramount+ and investors are lukewarm on welcoming it into the clubhouse. The platform's strategy to release films 45 days after theatrical may be a bold move to keep the films relevant but will be a deal changer for the back end deals for films like Maverick.  

Golden Globes week is upon us without the glitter of the parties, FYC pushes and even the Films. How will the stay at home culture hold back the recognition and reward of the creative career? As a rollout begins for the list of films from the Academy, we may see the lowest numbers ever for the broadcast and a huge separation from the Hollywood of yesterday and today. 

NBC concludes the practice of overnight ratings, dropping the number from their investor and advertising reference to push the focus on the true KPIs of the TV Industry. NBC’s Stuart Levine, writes in Variety “Long gone are the days when a vast majority of viewers watched their favorite shows in the exact time slot in which they were scheduled.”  Further proof that the new metrics of the Hollywood screens are protected on each OTT platform. Influencer culture, branded content, sponsorship deals and subscribers are so entrenched that networks may no longer need Upfront season to make ends meet.

Martin Scorsese Harper’s article (http://timt.la/3uelQTQ​) laments how Film and TV has shifted to “content” which only describes the commodity and has desensitized the experience into minutes consumed. Backlash from Kyle Smith claims the “misplaced nostalgia” doesn’t recognize the opportunity to shift the field.   Industry professionals are feeling more pessimistic about the recovery of the industry and their jobs. The dissolution of Blue Sky and consolidation of Marketing has left many losing confidence, recognizing that layoffs and shifts will leave many looking to change careers because being out of the film industry for one year is like being out for 10 years in other industries. Keith Rauch encourages Hollywood​ to follow Adam Grant’s view to Think Again (www.amzn.com/1984878107), by processing changes like a scientist instead of a politician. This helps us ask the right question and discover new opportunities.

Disney hits the breaks on Blue Sky Studios and drops 90% of employees. This may be a reflection of our times, but realistically Disney was predictable. This move can create a new wave of animation as the Stamford Conn talent can differentiate from the Disney Homogenization machine and take advantage of the flat and wide distribution channels of a post pandemic industry.  

The newest players make big moves as Daily Wire scoops up Gina Carano the day after her breakup with the Mandalorian creatives. A clear move to make a name for themselves, which also gives a view at the strategic opportunity of New Hollywood and micro distribution. This may play out well for small studios who don’t need blockbuster numbers to break even on their content and can get into theaters earlier than the behemoth competition.  

Will #BlackWidow make its debut in the silver screen or be forced to follow the fate of WW84? Disney Plus nears 100M subs, but “Marvel movies were built to be seen in a theatre!” (Keith Rauch)  Kevin Feige needs to determine how tight to hold onto #Theatrical presentation over content dominance for his viewers and filmmakers and pass the burden to Universal for Fast and Furious 9 to break the stay at home bubble.

The VOD platforms have shown their dominance once again with the Golden Globes and Netflix gain of 4 time more nominations than others, with HULU and Amazon rounding out the pack, while traditional studios remain in the shadows. The studios are basically saying:  "Netflix, you know what? You go ahead and run Hollywood now.” Following the Big Tech influence is Apple’s purchase of CODA at Sundance for a record breaking $25 Million after a bidding war with Amazon.   

This trend changes many elements as Tech companies don’t function in the same models, but content makers can be quickly turned into luddites if they don’t keep up with the new demands and deals.   Evidence of change is also coming to the OTT space. Apple brings on Warner Bros veteran JP Richards to become head of film marketing strategy at Apple TV+. He joins the team to influence of Apple’s growing ambitions in original content.    

And watch out for the Gaming companies that their ability to increase the gross engagement time over content makers. The platforms desired metrics of Total Viewed Hours won’t be able to compete with gaming time. Following our discussion with Sean Haran at Gearbox, we see the trend continue with Riot Games hiring of Ryan Crosby from Hulu and Netflix.  This is clearly the indication that new studios are in the works.

Disney’s theatrical marketing group is tapped for the roll out of the Disney+ big name content like Wandavision and The Mandalorian. 

Leaning on the creative channels from the successful theatrical team boosts the presentation of Disney+ content, but also changes the utilization of the marketing group, which can have bigger long term implications. 

How will they prioritize future release elements, what would the upsell be (if any) for a traditional release schedule?  

HBO Max is also feeling the pressure. With subscribers at 25% of what Disney brings in, and no real growth after the WW84 release leaves Warner Bros with the challenge of keeping filmmakers happy, cash flow coming in, and the daunting effort of keeping up with the competition.  

Shout out to @Midnight Oil for the work on the Terminator Salvation poster.

Are we just playing games?

“More and more markets are opening up for game IP as more gamers seek premium entertainment.” - Sean Haran

Sean Haran, Chief Business Officer at Gearbox Software, joins us today to share his experience from studio executive to video game pioneer. The game industry has legitimized entertainment as a growth segment for over two decades and in the last year has grown in influence. Sean’s eye towards opportunity sheds light on the future game IP, games as distribution for content makers, and a venue for connection and competition even in a pandemic. 

Netflix’s 2021 Sizzle with all star cast sharing “What they love about movies”, trying to strengthen the definition of a movie without the need for theatrical release (and sometimes quality).  They also promises a movie a week, but will they be able to deliver on the promise of quality or will this be Netflix Churn?  

 Quibi is gone but not dead. Roku acquisition of Quibi content is a possible play for a “Netflix Light“ platform. Will Roku expand the Quibi shows into full length or does this make Roku a place to view a long tail of existing content?  

Disney does a Friday evening news dump to announceme Tony Chambers’ new position as Head of Disney Theatrical Distribution. Reporting now into Kareem Daniel’s division instead of studio chief Alan Bergman which marks a major shift toward a general platform distribution. Is a more general platform marketing far behind?