Hot Not CRE

It's Friday, March 27th, 2026 — time for your weekly CRE market wrap-up.WHAT'S HOT:

• Data centers at 97% global occupancy — landlords have serious negotiating leverage
• $3 trillion in data center infrastructure investment expected by 2030
• Retail pricing expected to hit record highs in 2026
• Shopping center foot traffic up 1% YoY to 10.1 billion visits
• Office vacancy down to 17.6% in February — down 2 percentage points YoY
• Office attendance at nearly 70% of pre-pandemic levels
• MBA forecasts $805 billion in CRE originations for 2026 (+27% from 2025)
• Commercial mortgage rates between 5.71% and 5.96%
• 10-year Treasury at 4.15%

• Office CMBS delinquency hit record 12.34%
• Overall CMBS delinquency at 7.47%
• $3.18 billion in CMBS loans hitting hard maturity this month
• 17% of outstanding commercial mortgage balances mature in 2026
• Industrial cooling — vacancy stabilizing, rent growth moderate
• Power constraints limiting data center expansion
• Data center construction costs averaging $11.3M per megawatt

• Prologis & GIC: $1.6B logistics joint venture
• Breakthrough Properties: $465M CMBS loan for San Diego life science campus
• EQT Real Estate: 2M SF infill logistics portfolio in Southern New Jersey
• SL Green JV: $1.7B refi in progress for Manhattan building

WHAT'S NOT:DEALS OF THE WEEK:INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:Data centers and retail are leading. Office is stabilizing but watch the delinquencies. Industrial is normalizing after years of outperformance. Capital is flowing — focus on quality assets with strong fundamentals.#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #WeeklyWrapUp #DataCenters #OfficeRealEstate #RetailRealEstate #Industrial #CMBS #CapitalMarkets #RealEstateInvesting #CREInvesting #MarketUpdate #Delinquency #Prologis #SLGreen #LifeScience #Logistics #MultifamilyInvesting #RealEstateNews #InvestorInsights #DailyPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot

In this episode, we break down Class A vs B vs C multifamily performance and pick a clear winner for 2026.WHAT'S HOT:

• Class B workforce housing holding strong with better occupancy, healthier renewals, and steady leasing velocity
• Rent growth projected at 2% nationally in 2026 — Class B capturing recovery without concession pressure
• Fannie and Freddie each have $88 billion in lending capacity for 2026
• Agency debt available in high-4% range
• Banks, life companies, and debt funds actively seeking quality Class B loans

• Class A vacancy finished 2025 at 8.1% — well above historical norms
• Class A rent growth essentially flat at -0.1%
• 50%+ of Phoenix rentals offering at least one month free rent
• Sun Belt concessions averaging 5 weeks
• Class C facing forced sales and capital constraints — sub-90% occupancy deals in trouble
• Insurance costs surged 172% over past decade, hitting Class C hardest

WHAT'S NOT:WHY IT MATTERS:Only 270,000 new units slated for 2026 — the slowest supply growth in over a decade. Completions dropping 24% from 2025. Class B is best positioned to capture the recovery.VERDICT: Class B = Strongest | Class A = Challenged (Sun Belt) | Class C = WeakestINVESTOR TAKEAWAY: Class B workforce housing offers stable cash flows, strong tenant demand, and favorable capital markets access. Avoid Class A in high-supply Sun Belt markets until concessions burn off. Be very selective on Class C.#Multifamily #ClassBMultifamily #WorkforceHousing #ApartmentInvesting #SunBeltRealEstate #PhoenixRealEstate #CRE #CommercialRealEstate #RealEstateInvesting #MultifamilyInvesting #RentGrowth #ClassAMultifamily #RealEstate2026 #PropertyInvesting #MultifamilyMarket

Episode 68 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Wednesday, March 25th, 2026Topic: Interest Rates and Capital Markets Update🔥 WHAT'S HOT:

• Fed held steady — FOMC kept federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% for second consecutive meeting; projecting one more cut in 2026
• 10-year Treasury hovering at 4.37%-4.39%
• CRE lending rebounding — MBA forecasts $805B in originations (+27% YoY); multifamily at $399B (+21%)
• CMBS issuance surging — KBRA forecasts $183B in private-label CRE securitization, a post-financial-crisis high
• Regional banks returning to CRE — PNC, US Bancorp, Regions, KeyCorp projecting recovery in commercial property lending
• Cap rates stabilized — most investors expect rates to hold steady or compress slightly in retail, industrial, and hotel

• Maturity wall is here — $875B in CRE/multifamily debt (~17% of $5T outstanding) matures in 2026
• Many loans originated at 3%-4% rates now face refinancing at double those levels
• Multifamily maturities surging — jumps 56% from $104B (2025) to $162B (2026)
• Office sector stress continues — maturity defaults expected to dominate new delinquencies
• Extend-and-pretend running out of runway — loan modifications only delay reckoning, crowding 2026 window

❄️ WHAT'S NOT:💡 WHY IT MATTERS:Capital markets are normalizing, but the maturity wall creates a bifurcated environment. Properties with strong fundamentals will refinance and transact. Challenged assets — especially office — face distress. This is creating both risk and opportunity.🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:Liquidity is available for the right deals. Focus on assets with stable cash flows and strong sponsorship. Watch for distressed opportunities as maturity defaults accelerate, particularly in office. The Fed's cautious stance means rates stay higher for longer — underwrite accordingly and don't assume aggressive rate cuts.🎧 Listen daily for your 3-minute institutional CRE briefing.🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #CapitalMarkets #InterestRates #FederalReserve #FOMC #Treasury #MaturityWall #Refinancing #CMBS #CRELending #MultifamilyDebt #OfficeDistress #RegionalBanks #CapRates #RealEstateInvesting #CREInvesting #InstitutionalCRE #MarketUpdate #WednesdayBriefing #RealEstateNews #InvestorInsights #DailyPodcast #CREPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot #DebtMaturities #CREDebt #MortgageOriginations #DistressedAssets #CREFinance

Episode 67 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Tuesday, March 24th, 2026Topic: Rent Growth and Rental Market Update🔥 WHAT'S HOT:

• Rent affordability improving — typical household spends 26.4% of income on rent, lowest since August 2021
• Northeast markets leading rent growth — Hartford, Buffalo, Providence, NYC metro seeing strongest gains
• Midwest stability attracting capital — Cincinnati, Columbus, Detroit, Kansas City, Philadelphia expecting ~3% rent growth
• Spring leasing season arriving — modest price increases expected after 30 consecutive months of YoY declines
• Single-family rentals outperforming — SFR projected +1.8% vs multifamily +0.9% by year-end

• Austin rents down 18.2% from September 2022 peak — ~$300/month savings for renters, pain for landlords
• Phoenix rents fell 4% YoY; Denver multifamily down 3.2% annually
• Concessions widespread — 40% of Zillow listings offering incentives; Denver at 68%, Phoenix at 54%
• Average concession = 5 weeks free rent
• National median asking rent at $1,667 — four-year low, lowest since March 2022
• YoY rent growth essentially flat (-1.5% to +1.9% depending on source)

❄️ WHAT'S NOT:💡 WHY IT MATTERS:The rental market is bifurcating sharply. Supply-constrained Northeast and Midwest markets are seeing rent growth while oversupplied Sun Belt metros continue correcting. This divergence creates both risk and opportunity depending on where you're invested.🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:Focus on markets with tight supply and stable demand — Northeast metros, Midwest secondary cities, and select coastal markets. Avoid chasing yield in oversupplied Sun Belt metros until vacancy normalizes. If acquiring in Austin, Phoenix, or Denver, underwrite conservatively and factor in continued concession pressure through 2026. Spring leasing season may provide a floor, but recovery will be gradual.🎧 Listen daily for your 3-minute institutional CRE briefing.🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #RentGrowth #RentalMarket #Multifamily #ApartmentInvesting #Concessions #SunBelt #Austin #Denver #Phoenix #Northeast #Midwest #RentAffordability #MedianRent #SingleFamilyRental #SFR #RealEstateInvesting #CREInvesting #InstitutionalCRE #MarketUpdate #TuesdayBriefing #RealEstateNews #InvestorInsights #DailyPodcast #CREPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot #SpringLeasing #VacancyRates #RentDeclines #MarketCorrection

Episode 66 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Monday, March 23rd, 2026Topic: Residential and Multifamily Market Update🔥 WHAT'S HOT:

• Supply cooling — Completions projected at 333,000 units in 2026, down 36% from peak, lowest since 2014
• Construction pipeline contracted over 50% from high
• January 2026: 29% spike in multifamily starts, 453,000 permits annualized
• BTR thriving — 64,000 homes under construction, 139,000 in planning
• Investor sentiment improving — cap rates stabilizing, bid-ask spreads narrowing

• National vacancy at 8.6% — highest since post-financial-crisis recovery, above 6.9% historical average
• Nearly 1.8 million units delivered over past 3 years, outstripping absorption
• National occupancy at 94.5%, down slightly from January 2025
• Rent growth sluggish — just 0.2% nationally in January; YoY growth to lag through H1 2026
• Sun Belt markets like Houston seeing absorption rates fall, widespread concessions

❄️ WHAT'S NOT:💡 WHY IT MATTERS:The multifamily market is entering a critical rebalancing phase. The supply wave that pressured occupancy and rents is finally cresting. Completions will continue dropping through 2027-2028, reducing vacancy pressure and supporting rent recovery — but we're not there yet.🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:The setup is improving but patience is required. Target markets where supply is contracting fastest and occupancy remains above 95%. BTR continues to outperform with stronger rent collections and lower turnover. Avoid high-vacancy Sun Belt metros until absorption catches up. Watch for cap rate compression opportunities as transaction volume rebuilds through back half of 2026.🎧 Listen daily for your 3-minute institutional CRE briefing.🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #Multifamily #ApartmentInvesting #MultifamilyInvesting #BuildToRent #BTR #ConstructionPipeline #VacancyRates #RentGrowth #SupplyCrunch #RealEstateInvesting #CREInvesting #InstitutionalCRE #MarketUpdate #MondayBriefing #RealEstateNews #InvestorInsights #DailyPodcast #CREPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot #Completions #Absorption #SunBelt #Midwest #CapRates #TransactionVolume #WorkforceHousing #RentalHousing #Demographics #Homeownership #IRR

Episode 65 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Friday, March 20th, 2026Topic: Investor Outlook — Where Smart Money Is Allocating in 2026🔥 WHAT'S HOT:

• Data centers — Global core fund capital could hit $50B in 2026; sector requires $3 trillion by 2030
• Value-add strategies dominating — 45% of PE investors increasing capital deployment in next 12 months
• Distressed opportunities emerging selectively — distress expected to peak in 2026 before flattening
• Office conversions accelerating — NYC projected 9.5M SF of office-to-residential in 2026; RXR/One Investment $500M+ for 61 Broadway
• Private credit expanding rapidly — filling gap as traditional banks reduce CRE exposure
• 75%+ of global CRE leaders plan to increase investment over next 12-18 months

• Commodity office — unless Class A trophy or clear repositioning plan; hybrid work isn't reversing
• Overleveraged deals from 2021 — refinancing wall hitting; properties struggling at current rates
• Undifferentiated retail — grocery-anchored resilient, but generic retail without strong anchors faces headwinds

❄️ WHAT'S NOT:💡 WHY IT MATTERS:More than 75% of global CRE leaders plan to increase investment over the next 12-18 months. But capital deployment is deliberate, structured, and sector-specific — not broad risk-on. The gap between accelerating sectors and recalibrating ones is widening.🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:Smart money in 2026 is targeting: data centers, industrial logistics, value-add multifamily, and office conversions in gateway markets. Avoid: commodity office, overleveraged legacy deals, and undifferentiated retail. Be selective, be patient, and let distress come to you.🎧 Listen daily for your 3-minute institutional CRE briefing.🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #DataCenters #SmartMoney #InvestorOutlook #PrivateEquity #ValueAdd #DistressedAssets #OfficeConversions #PrivateCredit #MultifamilyInvesting #IndustrialLogistics #RealEstateInvesting #CREInvesting #InstitutionalCRE #MarketUpdate #FridayBriefing #RealEstateNews #InvestorInsights #DailyPodcast #CREPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot #CorePlus #ValueAddStrategy #RefinancingWall #HybridWork #GatewayMarkets #CapitalDeployment #AI #CloudComputing #AlternativeAssets #IRR

Episode 64 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Thursday, March 19th, 2026Topic: Class A, B, and C Multifamily Investment — Where Smart Money Is Allocating🔥 WHAT'S HOT:

• Class B workforce housing is the clear winner — stronger occupancy, steadier rent performance vs Class A
• Class B cap rates compressed to 4.92% showing strong investor demand
• Sage Investment Group targeting 18-25% IRR on 5-year workforce housing holds
• San Diego workforce housing deal: $30M for 144 units (~$208K/door)
• Demographic tailwinds: Teachers, nurses, police, tradespeople renting longer due to mortgage rates
• Hotel-to-apartment conversions creating workforce housing at ~50% of ground-up costs
• 72% of investors plan to moderately expand multifamily portfolios in 2026

• Class A luxury apartments — vacancy above 10% in many metros, 30%+ advertising concessions
• Class A faces heaviest lease-up pressure from new supply; renters want rent discounts over amenities
• Class C challenged — higher delinquency, limited rent growth absorption, rising repair/turnover costs
• Class C vacancy elevated; risk-adjusted returns often don't pencil for passive investors

❄️ WHAT'S NOT:💡 WHY IT MATTERS:The market is bifurcating. Class A struggles with oversupply and concession wars. Class C faces operational headwinds. Class B sits in the sweet spot — strong demand from workforce renters, stable cash flows, value-add upside without Class A competition or Class C risk. Core-plus and value-add strategies considered most attractive for 2026.🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:Target Class B workforce housing in supply-constrained markets — Midwest, Northeast, select Sun Belt metros with balanced fundamentals. Avoid Class A in oversupplied markets until concessions normalize. Class C requires hands-on management. The middle of the market is where the risk-adjusted returns live.🎧 Listen daily for your 3-minute institutional CRE briefing.🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #Multifamily #WorkforceHousing #ClassB #ClassA #ClassC #ApartmentInvesting #MultifamilyInvesting #CapRates #ValueAdd #RealEstateInvesting #PropertyInvestment #AffordableHousing #RentalHousing #CREInvesting #SunBelt #Midwest #Northeast #Concessions #VacancyRates #RentGrowth #InstitutionalCRE #MarketUpdate #ThursdayBriefing #RealEstateNews #InvestorInsights #DailyPodcast #CREPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot #CorePlus #ValueAddStrategy #HotelConversion #Demographics #IRR

Episode 63 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Wednesday, March 18th, 2026Topic: 10-Year Treasury Note — Fed Decision Day🔥 WHAT'S HOT:

• 10-Year Treasury at 4.21% — down from 4.28% last week, 4.31% a year ago. Stability supports CRE deal flow
• Sweet spot for transactions: 4.0-4.25% range — we're right there
• Cap rate spreads attractive: Multifamily Class A 4.5-5.25%, Industrial 5.5-6.25%, Grocery-anchored retail 5.75-6.5%
• Fed expected to hold at 3.5-3.75% today — stability allows confident underwriting
• Transaction velocity improving: $562B projected for 2026 (+15-20% YoY)

• Inflation sticky — February CPI 2.4%, Core 2.5%. Fed's 2% target still out of reach
• Energy prices a wildcard — Iran conflict pushing oil higher, could delay or eliminate rate cuts
• Aggressive easing hopes dead — markets pricing 0-1 cuts as base case for 2026
• Sub-4% Treasury financing may be years away

❄️ WHAT'S NOT:💡 WHY IT MATTERS:Treasury stability is unlocking deal flow even without rate cuts. Cap rate compression will be gradual: Industrial 40bps, Retail 35bps, Multifamily 25bps, Office 20bps from peaks. The era of cheap capital is over. Underwrite at current rates and focus on income.🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:Don't wait for rate cuts that may never come. 10-Year at 4.21% supports positive leverage for quality assets. Focus on cap rate spread — not rate predictions. The window for acquiring well-priced assets at attractive spreads is open now.🎧 Listen daily for your 3-minute institutional CRE briefing.🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #10YearTreasury #TreasuryYield #FederalReserve #FOMC #InterestRates #RateCuts #CapRates #CREInvesting #RealEstateInvesting #Multifamily #Industrial #Retail #Inflation #CPI #DealFlow #TransactionVolume #CREFinance #RealEstateFinance #PropertyInvestment #InstitutionalCRE #MarketUpdate #WednesdayBriefing #FedDecision #BondMarket #YieldCurve #CRECapital #RealEstateNews #InvestorInsights #DailyPodcast #CREPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot #UnderwritingStrategy #CapRateSpread #PositiveLeverage

Episode 62 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Tuesday, March 17th, 2026Topic: Hottest U.S. Rental Markets — YoY Rent Growth🔥 WHAT'S HOT:

• Atlanta, GA — 5.8% YoY rent increase, strongest among major metros. Construction slowdown + continued in-migration driving demand
• Minneapolis, MN — 5.2% YoY increase. Midwest outperformance continues. Limited new supply, stable employment
• Chicago, IL — 4.4% YoY increase. Most undersupplied major metro. Vacancy at 3.5%
• Detroit, MI — 4.0% YoY growth. Industrial renaissance supporting housing demand. Affordability advantage
• Cincinnati & Columbus, OH — 3.1% projected growth. Midwest balanced markets with limited supply pipeline

• Austin, TX — 7.3% YoY DECLINE. Rents falling 33 consecutive months. Vacancy at 13.8% (up from 8.2%). Median asking rent $1,358
• Denver, CO — 4.9% YoY decline. Vacancy at 7.6%, highest in a decade. 68% of properties offering concessions
• Phoenix, AZ — 4.0% YoY decline. 70%+ of properties offering discounts vs 43% nationally. Vacancy 8.4%

❄️ WHAT'S NOT:💡 WHY IT MATTERS:The rent growth map has flipped. Midwest markets that were overlooked are now leading. Sun Belt oversupply creating 2-3 year headwinds. National rent growth expected around 2% in 2026, but massive regional variance. Supply slowdown (50%+ fewer starts) will eventually tighten Sun Belt, but not until late 2026 or 2027.🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:Follow the rent growth. Atlanta, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit showing 4-6% gains. Avoid Austin, Denver, Phoenix until vacancy normalizes below 6%. Midwest and select Northeast markets offer superior risk-adjusted returns in 2026.🎧 Listen daily for your 3-minute institutional CRE briefing.🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #RentGrowth #ApartmentRents #Multifamily #Atlanta #Minneapolis #Chicago #Detroit #Cincinnati #Columbus #Austin #Denver #Phoenix #SunBelt #Midwest #RentalMarket #YoYRentGrowth #VacancyRates #RentDecline #RenterFriendly #ApartmentInvesting #MultifamilyInvesting #RealEstateInvesting #PropertyInvestment #RealEstateNews #CREInvesting #MarketUpdate #RentalTrends #HousingMarket #RealEstateTrends #DailyPodcast #CREPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot #InvestorInsights #TuesdayMarketUpdate

Episode 61 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Monday, March 16th, 2026Topic: Residential & Multifamily — Today's Most Relevant Data🔥 WHAT'S HOT:

• Build-to-Rent (BTR): 97%+ occupancy vs 94.8% conventional, 68,700 units under construction, completions declining through 2027
• Supply Wave Cresting: New starts at lowest since 2012, ~300,000 completions in 2026 (half of 2024 peak), pipeline thinned to 690,000 units
• Regional Winners: Northeast 96.1% occupancy, Midwest 95.6%, Chicago most undersupplied and demand-driven metro
• Investor Sentiment Improving: More buyers in 2026 than 2025, financing more predictable, MBA forecasts significant originations increase

• Sun Belt Oversupply: South at 93.9% occupancy (lowest region), Austin and Phoenix steep annual rent declines
• Concession Crisis: Denver 68% of rentals offering concessions, Phoenix 50%+ offering at least one month free
• National Rent Stagnant: Average $1,740 unchanged from January, 0.4% below February 2025
• Concessions Masking Performance: 1-4 months free inflates headline rents but compresses effective NOI

❄️ WHAT'S NOT:💡 WHY IT MATTERS:The multifamily market is normalizing — not collapsing. Supply is finally slowing, occupancy is stabilizing, and investor appetite is returning. But performance is highly regional. Northeast and Midwest are tightening. Sun Belt is still absorbing.🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:Focus on supply-constrained markets with occupancy above 95%. BTR continues to outperform. Avoid chasing deals in oversupplied Sun Belt metros until concessions burn off. Calculate net effective rent — not asking rent. Market selection is everything in 2026.🎧 Listen daily for your 3-minute institutional CRE briefing.🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #Multifamily #BuildToRent #BTR #SingleFamilyRental #ApartmentInvesting #RentGrowth #Occupancy #Vacancy #RentConcessions #SunBelt #Denver #Phoenix #Austin #Northeast #Midwest #Chicago #RealEstateInvesting #MultifamilyInvesting #PropertyInvestment #RealEstateNews #CREInvesting #MultifamilyMarket #ApartmentMarket #RealEstateTrends #SupplyPipeline #NewConstruction #RealEstateData #MarketUpdate #DailyPodcast #CREPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot #InvestorInsights #RealEstateStrategy #MondayMarketUpdate