Hot Not CRE

Episode 50 of What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E. — your daily commercial real estate market briefing. Today's Topic: Investor Outlook — Where Smart Money Is Moving 
🔥 What's Hot: • Data centers — 95% of global investors increasing spending, $3T supercycle through 2030 • Construction set to surpass traditional office building • Power access (20-60MW capacity) is the new land grab • Industrial — e-commerce at 16% of retail sales (up from 11% in 2019) • Multifamily value-add — 2/3 of investors prefer value-add and core-plus strategies • Class B workforce housing in supply-constrained markets • Grocery-anchored retail — limited supply, necessity-based tenants 
❄️ What's Not: • Suburban and Class B office outside prime locations — CMBS delinquencies at 12.34% • National office vacancy still at 18.2% • $1.5 trillion in CRE debt maturing by year-end • Distressed office hit 10-year high in 2025 • Sun Belt Class A multifamily — concessions heavy, rent growth flat to negative 
💡 Why It Matters: 55% of investors increasing CRE allocations (up from 48% last year). But they're targeting durable income, not speculative plays. Value-add and core-plus dominate. Opportunistic strategies declining. 
🎯 Investor Takeaway: Follow the capital: data centers, industrial, Class B multifamily, grocery-anchored retail. Avoid office outside prime locations. Underwrite conservatively — deals getting done work at today's rates. 
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Episode 49 of What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E. — your daily commercial real estate market briefing. Today's Topic: A vs B vs C Class Multifamily — 2026 Outlook 
🔥 What's Hot: • Class B workforce housing outperforming on occupancy • Midwest & Northeast leading: Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit • Institutional capital returning to workforce housing • Manageable expense pressure, margins holding 
❄️ What's Not: • Class A struggling in Sun Belt: Austin, Phoenix, Tampa, Houston with double-digit vacancy • Operators offering 2 months free rent on luxury units • Class C delinquencies at 1.37% (up from 0.40% two years ago) • Nearly $9 billion in delinquent multifamily loans • 1980s-era Class C in Phoenix, Florida, Texas posting sub-90% occupancy 
💡 Why It Matters: Market bifurcating — Class B offers best risk-adjusted profile. Class A works in supply-constrained markets but bleeds in Sun Belt. Class C increasingly a value trap. 
🎯 Investor Takeaway: Focus Class B workforce housing in supply-constrained markets. Avoid Class A in oversupplied Sun Belt. Approach Class C with extreme caution. 
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Episode 48 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." for Wednesday, February 25th, 2026.Topic: 10-Year Treasury — Rates & CRE Impact🔥 What's Hot:

• 10-Year Treasury at 4.05% — down 17bps monthly, 21bps YoY
• Deal volume up 16% YoY, on pace for $562 billion
• Cap rate compression of 5-15bps expected across most property types
• Office sales surged 52% from trough
• Bid-ask spreads narrowing, liquidity returning selectively

• Fed on pause at 3.5-3.75% — some officials discussed raising rates
• J.P. Morgan expects zero Fed cuts in 2026
• Goldman Sachs and Barclays pushed cut forecasts to September at earliest
• $1 trillion in CRE loans maturing this year — painful resets for overleveraged deals

• New equilibrium: rates in 4% range, financing in 5-7% range
• Predictability matters more than absolute levels
• Deals penciling on fundamentals, not Fed hope
• Stability unlocking sidelined capital

❄️ What's Not:💡 Why It Matters:🎯 Investor Takeaway: Underwrite at current rates. Don't bank on Fed relief. The 10-year at 4% is workable. The waiting game is over.
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Welcome back to What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E. It's Tuesday, February 24th, 2026. Today — the hottest rental markets in America right now. 
🔥 What's Hot — Rent Growth Leaders: Virginia Beach leads the nation at +5% YoY (multifamily +6.2%) — defense jobs and limited supply driving demand. San Jose +4.8% — AI hiring and return-to-office fueling Bay Area rents. San Francisco +4.6%. Chicago +5.5% multifamily — lowest construction pipeline since the GFC. Providence +4.9% — Northeast benefiting from constrained supply. 
❄️ What's Not — Florida & Sun Belt Struggling: Sarasota -6.1%. Fort Myers -6%. Naples -4.7%. Pandemic building boom oversupply hitting hard. Austin continues sliding at -3.2% — on top of years of declines. Denver still negative at -3.2% YoY. 
💡 Why It Matters: The market is splitting clearly. Coastal tech hubs and supply-constrained Midwest/Northeast markets are growing. Sun Belt and Florida are correcting. Migration has slowed sharply — job growth is the new differentiator. Defense, tech, and healthcare employment are winning. 
🎯 Investor Takeaway: Follow the jobs and supply constraints. Virginia Beach, San Jose, Chicago, Providence — these are the momentum plays. Avoid Florida coastal markets and Austin until absorption catches up. 
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Welcome back to What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E. It's Monday, February 23rd, 2026. Today — the latest multifamily data. 
🔥 What's Hot — Supply Wave Cresting: Deliveries dropping from 371,000 units in 2024 to around 260,000 this year. Occupancy ticking up to 94.7% in January. Renter urgency increasing for the first time in three years. Midwest and Northeast outperforming — Chicago at 3.6% rent growth, New York 3.3%, San Jose 2.8%. Boston, San Jose, New York all under 5% vacancy. 
❄️ What's Not — Vacancy & Sun Belt Struggles: National vacancy at 7.3% — highest since 2017. South at 9.1%. Sun Belt still correcting — Austin near 10% vacancy, Phoenix down 3.7%, Denver down 3.2%. 35% of properties offering free rent — up from 25% a year ago. National rents down 1.4% YoY — 29 consecutive months of declines. 
💡 Why It Matters: Market is bifurcating. Supply-constrained markets growing. Sun Belt still correcting. Relief won't fully hit until late 2026 or 2027. 
🎯 Investor Takeaway: Focus on Chicago, New York, San Jose, Boston. Avoid Sun Belt until absorption catches up. Vacancy peak may be here, but recovery will be gradual. 
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Welcome back to What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Friday, February 20th, 2026. Today — where smart money is moving right now. 
🔥 What's Hot — Capital Flows Into Winners: Data centers remain the undisputed winner — 95% of global investors plan to increase data center spending this year. AI demand is off the charts. Power access is the new land grab — sites with 20 to 60 megawatt capacity are prime strategic assets. Industrial stays strong — e-commerce resurgence, defense sector demand, and reshoring boosting manufacturing leases in the Southeast and Central U.S. Private credit is having a moment — over $2 trillion in CRE loans maturing by 2030, many originated at low rates, now facing refinancing gaps. Private lenders stepping in at attractive spreads. Overall CRE investment expected up 16% to $562 billion — near pre-pandemic levels. 95% of investors plan to buy as much or more than last year. 
❄️ What's Not — Avoid These Traps: Office outside prime locations remains dead money — suburban and Class B office still struggling with vacancy. Value traps in overleveraged multifamily — 2021-2022 vintage floating rate deals still underwater, sponsors facing capital calls or forced sales. Europe is drawing capital away — investors questioning U.S. political resilience, secondary European cities gaining attention. 
💡 Why It Matters: Capital is back, but selective. Flight to quality is real — data centers, industrial, private credit. Smart money focused on defensible income and assets that work at current rates — not banking on Fed relief. 
🎯 Investor Takeaway: Follow the capital. Data centers, industrial, and private credit are the consensus trades. Avoid office outside prime and overleveraged multifamily. Selectivity wins in 2026. That wraps up the week! Have a great weekend. Don't forget to Like, Share, and Subscribe! Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter. 
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Welcome back to What's Hot What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Thursday, February 19th, 2026. Today — the multifamily class war: A vs B vs C. 
🔥 What's Hot — Class B Workforce Housing Wins: Class B occupancy at 95.8% — outpacing Class A at 95.7%. Class B rents 20-30% lower than Class A — the affordability sweet spot. No new supply competition — developers build luxury, Class B benefits from scarcity. Institutional capital returning. Public-private partnerships emerging. Midwest and Northeast seeing 2-4% rent growth. 
❄️ What's Not — Class A Sun Belt & Class C Struggles: Austin vacancy 13.8%, Houston 11.4%, Tampa 11.4%. Phoenix leads nation with over half of rentals offering free month rent. Austin median rent down 7.3% YoY — 33 consecutive months of decline. Landlords offering gift cards and event tickets to fill units. Class C (1980s vintage) in Phoenix, FL, TX showing sub-90% occupancy, rising delinquency, forced sales. Rising maintenance costs, insurance pressure, limited capital access. 
💡 Why It Matters: The market has already picked the winner. Class B offers durability — stable occupancy, consistent renewals, insulation from new supply wave. Class A Sun Belt recovery not until late 2026/2027. Class C faces structural headwinds that aren't going away. The gap between classes is widening. 
🎯 Investor Takeaway: Class B workforce housing is the strongest play for 2026. Higher occupancy than Class A, more durable rent growth, virtually no new supply competition. Avoid Class A in oversupplied Sun Belt metros. Steer clear of Class C until fundamentals stabilize. 
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Welcome back to What's Hot What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Wednesday, February 18th, 2026. Today — the 10-Year Treasury and what it's signaling for CRE. 
🔥 What's Hot — Treasury Stability Is Here: The 10-year yield sits at 4.05% today — down from 4.47% a year ago. Long-term rates have stabilized in the 4.0 to 4.25% range since mid-2025. This is the sweet spot for CRE deal flow. Cap rate spreads are attractive — with Treasuries at 4.05% and average multifamily cap rates in the mid-5s, spreads are holding above 150 basis points. Investors are seeing value again. Transaction velocity is improving — CRE deal volume is now matching or exceeding 2019 levels. Sidelined capital is coming back. Buyer sentiment is turning — the U.S. shows the strongest net intention to buy commercial real estate globally. Price discovery is clearing. Bid-ask spreads are narrowing. Fed is on hold — and markets are pricing that in. The FOMC held rates at 3.5-3.75% in January. Markets see less than one-in-five chance of a cut at the March meeting. Stability is the story — not cuts. 
❄️ What's Not — Headwinds Remain: Rate cut expectations have faded. At the start of the year, markets priced in two cuts for 2026. Now — maybe one, if inflation cooperates. Don't underwrite deals expecting rate relief. Long-end volatility remains a risk — any inflation surprise could push the 10-year back toward 4.5%. Tariff uncertainty and federal debt concerns are keeping bond vigilantes on edge. Floating rate borrowers still under pressure — those with 2021 and 2022 vintage debt on floating rate are still feeling the pain. Higher-for-longer is real. 
💡 Why It Matters: It's not about rate cuts. It's about rate stability. And we have it. The 4.0 to 4.25% range is workable for most CRE deals. Lenders are active. Debt markets are competitive. Cap rates are compressing modestly — 15 to 25 basis points expected this year. The market is transitioning from price discovery to deal execution. That's the shift. 
🎯 Investor Takeaway: Underwrite deals that work at current rates — don't bank on Fed relief. Treasury stability in the 4.0 to 4.25% range unlocks deal flow. Cap rate spreads are attractive — especially in multifamily and industrial. Watch for inflation surprises that could push yields higher. This is an execution market — not a waiting market. 
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Welcome back to What's Hot What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Tuesday, February 17th, 2026. Today — the hottest rental markets in America right now based on year-over-year rent growth. 
🔥 What's Hot — Hottest Markets by YoY Rent Growth: Provo-Orem, Utah leads the pack at 4.8% YoY — Silicon Slopes is booming. Tech economy expanding faster than housing supply can keep up. Population growth driving sustained demand. Miami is surging — projected to lead the nation at 3.8% annual rent growth for full year 2026. Strong property price appreciation and improved vacancy rates. International capital and domestic migration continue fueling demand. Chicago is quietly outperforming — rent growth at 3.2% YoY, above national average. Occupancy projected to hold steady near 95% through 2026. The key — Chicago has the lowest construction pipeline among major U.S. markets. Deliveries in 2026 will hit just 4,400 units — roughly half the 10-year average and the lowest level since the Great Financial Crisis. Supply discipline equals pricing power. Seattle is rebounding — forecasted rent growth of 3.7% as supply tightens. Norfolk, Virginia is a sleeper — up 4.3% YoY, driven by defense spending and military base expansion. 
❄️ What's Not — Markets Still Correcting: Austin continues to slide — rents down 6.3% YoY, the steepest decline in the country. Massive new supply, elevated vacancy. Still correcting. Jacksonville, Florida struggling with high vacancy and a large delivery pipeline weighing on rents. Houston seeing pressure from slowing job growth and a surge in new units. Los Angeles stalling — rent growth flat due to entertainment industry layoffs impacting demand. 
💡 Why It Matters: The theme continues — supply-constrained markets are winning. Provo, Chicago, Norfolk — all limited pipelines, all posting gains. Meanwhile, oversupplied Sun Belt markets — Austin, Jacksonville, Houston — are still correcting. This divergence will define 2026. Markets with disciplined supply and diversified job bases — tech, defense, healthcare — are positioned to outperform. The oversupply correction in Texas and Florida has further to run. 
🎯 Investor Takeaway: Target supply-constrained markets — Chicago, Norfolk, Provo. Miami offers growth but watch the new supply pipeline. Avoid Austin, Jacksonville, and Houston until absorption catches up. This is a stock-picker's market — geography and supply discipline are everything. 
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Welcome back to What's Hot What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Monday, February 16th, 2026. Today — the latest residential and multifamily data you need to know. 
🔥 What's Hot — Positive Signals Emerging: Occupancy is ticking back up. National apartment occupancy rose to 94.7% in January — the first increase after six consecutive months of decline. Demand is absorbing supply faster than expected in key markets. The Midwest continues outperforming — month-over-month rent growth led by the Midwest at +0.27%, followed by Northeast at +0.21%. Annual rent growth in the Midwest hit 2.1% — strongest in the country. Supply-constrained markets are winning. Tech hubs are rebounding — San Francisco up 6.3% year-over-year, San Jose up 2.8%, New York City up 3.3%. Hiring momentum in innovation-driven metros is stabilizing leasing activity and pushing rents higher. For-sale inventory up more than 10% year-over-year — new listings have surged, cooling pricing pressure. 
❄️ What's Not — Sun Belt Still Correcting: Austin still down 4.8% year-over-year. Denver and Phoenix both down 3.3%. Charlotte and Tampa still facing persistent rent declines. 297,000 new multifamily units were added in 2025 — most concentrated in these markets. Luxury apartments struggling most — vacancy rates hitting 11.1% in some markets. Class A oversupply is real — renters trading down to Class B workforce housing. National vacancy still elevated at 6.7% — up from 6.4% in 2024. Rental vacancy rate climbed to 7.3%. South saw rents decline 0.2% YoY. West declined 1.5% YoY. 
💡 Why It Matters: We're seeing the market bifurcate. Supply-constrained Midwest and coastal tech hubs are posting gains. Oversupplied Sun Belt markets are still correcting. The 94.7% occupancy uptick is a positive signal — demand is returning. But with 300,000 units expected to deliver in 2026 — about half the 2024 peak — pressure continues in select markets. Completions are finally slowing. Starts dropped significantly in 2023 and 2024. Relief is coming — but not until late 2026 or 2027. 
🎯 Investor Takeaway: Focus on Midwest and Northeast — strongest rent growth, limited supply. Tech hubs rebounding — San Francisco and San Jose are back. Avoid oversupplied Sun Belt Class A until absorption catches up. Watch the 94.7% occupancy number — if it holds, we've turned a corner. 
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