Hot Not CRE

Welcome back to What's Hot What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Friday, February 13th, 2026. Today — where institutional and smart money capital is flowing right now. 
🔥 What's Hot — Where Capital Is Flowing: Data centers continue dominating capital allocation. 95% of global investors surveyed by CBRE plan to increase data center spending. Construction spending on data centers is now surpassing traditional office buildings. The AI supercycle is real — nearly 100 gigawatts of new capacity projected through 2030, potentially creating $1.2 trillion in real estate asset value. Power — not location or cost — is now the primary site selection driver. Industrial remains a core allocation — nearshoring and onshoring continue driving demand for manufacturing and logistics facilities. Build-to-rent is accelerating — BTR on track to hit 15% of single-family starts. Sun Belt states — Texas, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina — seeing the strongest activity. Multifamily debt over equity — capital flowing more toward debt than equity due to attractive risk-adjusted returns. Private credit has emerged as a major liquidity source. Lenders highly active on deals above $50 million. 
❄️ What's Not — Where Capital Is Avoiding: Office continues to be avoided — smart money only touching office through repositioning plays. Class A multifamily in oversupplied Sun Belt markets — institutional capital pulling back from Dallas, Austin, Phoenix, Tampa. Too much inventory, heavy concessions, slow absorption. Capital rotating to Class B workforce housing instead. Broad risk-on exposure is out — allocations selective, concentrated in trusted managers and targeted themes. 💡
 Why It Matters: Total CRE investment activity expected to increase 16% in 2026 — reaching $562 billion, nearly matching pre-pandemic levels. Colliers forecasting 15-20% increase in sales activity. This is a sector-specific cycle — data centers, industrial, BTR, and Class B multifamily are winning. Office and oversupplied Class A multifamily are losing. The theme is clear: recurring income, stable occupancy, and operational quality over speculative plays. 
🎯 Investor Takeaway: Follow the smart money — data centers for AI-driven growth, industrial for nearshoring tailwinds, BTR for demographic demand, Class B multifamily for stability. Avoid office unless repositioning. Avoid Class A in oversupplied Sun Belt. This is an income-driven cycle — asset selection and management are everything. 
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Welcome back to What's Hot What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Thursday, February 12th, 2026. Today — Class A versus B versus C multifamily. Which one wins in 2026? 
🔥 What's Hot — Class B Workforce Housing Dominates: Class B is the clear winner heading into 2026. Occupancy at 95.8% — outperforming Class A at 95.7%. Rent growth more durable — in down cycles, Class B outpaces Class A as renters trade down. The rent premium between A and B has compressed — Class A concessions eating into that gap. Workforce housing sits in the demand sweet spot — rising wages supporting tenants' ability to pay. Midwest and Northeast markets leading: 3 to 4.5% rent growth in the Midwest, 4 to 5% in the Northeast. Limited new supply in these regions — most construction targeted Class A in Sun Belt. Institutional capital returning to Class B — seen as recession-resistant with stable cash flows. Public-private partnerships emerging — developers getting tax abatements for workforce housing. Class B offers the best risk-adjusted returns in today's market. 
❄️ What's Not — Class A Oversupply and Class C Distress: Class A struggling in oversupplied Sun Belt markets — elevated vacancy, heavy concessions. Dallas, Austin, Phoenix, Tampa — Class A properties stabilizing slowly. Rent growth for Class A projected at just 1 to 2% nationally — well below Class B. Class C facing serious headwinds — deteriorating performance signals emerging. Older 1980s-era properties concentrated in Phoenix, Florida, and Texas under pressure. Immigration policy uncertainty creating risk for Class C tenant base. Operators forced into heads-on-beds strategy — maximizing occupancy over rent growth. Expense pressure hitting Class C hardest — deferred maintenance catching up. Capital access for Class C severely limited — lenders pulling back. 
💡 Investor Takeaway: Class B workforce housing is the strongest play for 2026. Stable occupancy, durable rent growth, institutional backing. Avoid Class A in oversupplied Sun Belt until late 2026. Class C carries the most risk — limited upside, capital constraints, tenant uncertainty. Focus on Midwest and Northeast Class B for the best risk-adjusted returns. 
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Welcome back to What's Hot What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Wednesday, February 11th, 2026. Today — the 10-year Treasury and what it signals for CRE. 
🔥 What's Hot — Treasury Stability Unlocking Deals: 10-year Treasury at 4.14% today — down from 4.22% just yesterday. That's a meaningful move: we've dropped nearly 40 basis points from the 4.51% level a year ago. Key signal: Stability in the 4.0 to 4.3% range is exactly what CRE needs — predictability over absolute levels. Transaction velocity surging: Q4 2025 volumes hit $185.8 billion — up 30% year-over-year. Full year 2025 transactions totaled $545.3 billion — up 23% versus 2024. Multifamily investment hit $165.5 billion — a three-year high. Colliers forecasting 15-20% increase in sales activity for 2026 as institutional capital returns. Cap rate spreads remain attractive: averaging 200-300 basis points above Treasuries. Dallas-Fort Worth led 2025 with $22.3 billion in volume — up 6.6%. San Francisco Bay Area followed at $20.5 billion — up 24.6%. Miami volume soared 34.7% — deal count jumped 15.5%. 
❄️ What's Not — Rate Cuts Still on Hold: Fed held steady at 3.5% to 3.75% at January 28th meeting — no cuts expected until mid-year at earliest. Next FOMC meeting March 17-18 — markets see less than one in five chance of a cut. Two Fed governors dissented in January — wanted a 25 basis point cut. Internal tension continues. Inflation still above target at 2.7% annualized in December — keeping the Fed cautious. Unemployment ticking up to 4.4% — creating competing pressures. Higher-for-longer environment means floating rate debt from 2021-2022 remains stressed. Office assets still facing upward pressure on cap rates — structural challenges persist. 
💡 Investor Takeaway: At 4.14%, the 10-year is in the sweet spot for CRE deal flow. Transaction momentum is real: 30% Q4 growth, full year up 23%. Don't wait for rate cuts — stability is the story. Underwrite deals that work at current rates — don't bank on Fed relief. Multifamily and industrial leading the charge. Office still requires caution. 
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Welcome back to What's Hot What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Tuesday, February 10th, 2026. Today — the hottest rental markets in America right now based on year-over-year rent growth. 
🔥 What's Hot — Top Rent Growth Markets: San Francisco leads the nation at +6.3% year-over-year rent growth — tech hiring rebound driving demand. Norfolk, Virginia surges to number two at +4.3% — defense spending and limited new supply. San Jose at +3.5% — Bay Area tech recovery continuing. Chicago at +3.2% — Midwest stability and affordability driving inbound migration. Miami projected at +3.8% for full year 2026 — international capital and population growth. Seattle forecasting +3.7% — tech employment rebounding, constrained supply. Midwest leading monthly gains: +0.27% month-over-month in January. Northeast close behind at +0.21% monthly. 42 of top 50 markets posted rent increases in January — broad-based recovery signal. National average rent hit $1,713 — up 0.2% from December. 
❄️ What's Not — Markets Losing Momentum: Austin still bleeding at -4.8% year-over-year — steepest decline nationally, oversupply crushing rents. Denver and Phoenix both down -3.3% — same story, too much new supply hitting the market. Sun Belt oversupply hangover persists — Florida markets like Sarasota and Fort Myers seeing softness. Las Vegas rents softening after years of rapid growth. Louisiana markets forecast weakest: Houma, Lake Charles, New Orleans all struggling. 
💡 Investor Takeaway: The rent growth story is regional divergence — follow the data. Bay Area comeback is real: San Francisco +6.3%, San Jose +3.5% — tech hiring driving recovery. Midwest and Northeast outperforming with tight supply and steady demand. Avoid Austin, Denver, Phoenix until absorption catches up — likely late 2026 at earliest. National rent recovery is underway — 42 of 50 top markets positive. Market selection matters more than ever. 
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Welcome back to What's Hot What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Monday, February 9th, 2026. Today — the freshest multifamily data. Occupancy just ticked up for the first time in six months. 
🔥 What's Hot — Occupancy Finally Rising, Suburban Demand Surging: Big shift this month: apartment occupancy rose to 94.7% in January — first increase in six months. Effective asking rents up 0.2% month-over-month — first positive movement since last summer. Demand has exceeded supply for two consecutive quarters now — absorption finally catching up. Suburban markets leading the recovery: suburban vacancy at 6.9% vs 7.6% in urban cores. Affordability constraints in for-sale market pushing renters to suburbs. Investment activity strong: $165.5 billion in apartment transactions in 2025 — three-year high. Cap rates holding steady at 5.7%. Northeast rent growth strongest at 4-5% annually. Midwest steady at 3-4.5%. 
❄️ What's Not — Sun Belt Oversupply Persists, Urban Vacancy Elevated: Sun Belt still struggling with oversupply hangover. Texas metro vacancy rates well above national average — Austin, Dallas still digesting excess units. South and West registering most pronounced rent cuts — Phoenix, Denver, Charlotte still soft. National vacancy finished 2025 at 6.7%, up from 6.4% year prior. Urban rental vacancy at 7.6% — highest gap versus suburbs since pre-COVID. Effective rents still down 0.4% year-over-year nationally. New deliveries still elevated: 260,000 to 430,000 units in 2026. 
💡 Investor Takeaway: The January occupancy uptick is a real signal — first positive movement in six months. Suburban markets outperforming — follow the tenant demand. Northeast and Midwest offering best rent growth fundamentals. Sun Belt patience required — wait for absorption to catch up, likely H2 2026. Transaction volume at three-year highs shows institutional confidence. 
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Welcome back to What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Friday, February 6th, 2026. Today we're tracking where institutional capital is flowing — and what smart money is avoiding.

🔥 What's Hot — Data Centers and Industrial Lead Capital Flows: Data centers are the undisputed winner for capital deployment in 2026. Hyperscalers projected to spend $300-600 billion on AI infrastructure this year alone. Data center sector in investment supercycle — up to $3 trillion needed by 2030. Global sector growing at 14% CAGR over next five years. $1.2 trillion in real estate asset value creation expected. Power availability now the primary site selection driver — not location or cost. Industrial logistics remains resilient: tenant demand stable from e-commerce, manufacturing, nearshoring. New construction 42% below 2023 peak — supply finally moderating. Build-to-rent gaining momentum: BTR expected to hit 15% of single-family housing starts within five years.

❄️ What's Not — Office Still Struggling, Floating Rate Debt Distress: Office remains the sector smart money is avoiding. Office-using jobs still haven't recovered to pre-COVID peaks. Class B and C office facing highest distress risk. Only trophy Class A in top CBDs seeing rent growth. 2021-2022 vintage floating rate deals under pressure from higher-for-longer rates. Europe attracting capital as investors question U.S. political resilience.

💡 Investor Takeaway: Follow the capital: data centers and industrial are where the smart money is going — that's a signal. Build-to-rent offers demographic tailwinds and stable cash flow. Office requires extreme selectivity — trophy or nothing. 2026 is about income and conviction — not speculation.

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Welcome back to What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Thursday, February 5th, 2026. Today we're comparing Class A, B, and C multifamily — and picking a clear winner for 2026. 
🔥 What's Hot — Class B Workforce Housing Dominates: Class B is the clear strongest class for 2026. Occupancy at 95.8% — leading all asset classes. Rent growth outlook: Class B projecting 3-4% nationally, stronger in Midwest (3-4.5%) and Northeast (4-5%). Tenant demand is sticky — workforce housing serves essential workers with non-discretionary housing needs. Lower turnover than Class A — residents stay longer, reducing vacancy drag. Value-add still works: light renovations yielding solid rent premiums. Institutional capital rotating to workforce housing for stable cash flow. 
❄️ What's Not — Class A Oversupplied, Class C Expense-Pressured: Class A is weakest in high-supply Sun Belt metros — occupancy compressed to 92-94%. Lease-up pressure continues: concessions of 4-8 weeks free rent still common in Austin, Phoenix, Tampa. Class A rent growth capped at 1-2% in oversupplied markets. National vacancy at 8.5% — not expected below 8% until 2027-2028. Class C facing expense pressure: insurance premiums climbing, labor costs rising. Deferred maintenance in Class C compressing NOI margins. Capital increasingly difficult for Class C — lenders requiring larger reserves. 
💡 Investor Takeaway: 2026 is an income year — stable cash flow trumps appreciation. Class B workforce housing offers the best risk-adjusted returns. Avoid Class A in oversupplied Sun Belt until concessions burn off — late 2026 at earliest. Class C only for experienced operators — high-touch, high-risk. Target Midwest and Northeast for Class B — strongest rent growth fundamentals. 
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Welcome back to What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Wednesday, February 4th, 2026. Today we're tracking the 10-year Treasury and what it signals for CRE deal flow.
🔥 What's Hot — Stability Unlocking Deals: 10-year Treasury at 4.28% as of today — ticking up slightly but still stable. Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% at January 28 meeting after three consecutive cuts in late 2025. Key signal: Stability is the story — yield holding in 4.25-4.30% range provides predictability. Fed Chair Powell says economy on "firm footing" and rates "currently appropriate." CRE transaction velocity picking up: the math is working again with stable rates. Cap rate spreads remain attractive: 2.29% average spread vs 10-year Treasury (above 2.15% historical average). Multifamily and industrial leading demand with stable rate environment.
❄️ What's Not — Rate Cut Expectations Fading: Market now pricing in just ONE rate cut for 2026 — down from two projected last month. Two Fed governors (Miran and Waller) dissented, wanted another 25bps cut — signals internal tension. Extended pause risk: next FOMC meeting March 17-18, no cuts expected until at least mid-year. Higher-for-longer hitting floating rate debt hard, especially 2021-2022 vintage deals. Office and retail most exposed: 78bps cap rate movement for every 100bps Treasury move. Industrial only 41bps sensitivity — huge divergence in rate risk across sectors.
💡 Investor Takeaway: At 4.28%, the math works for quality assets with strong fundamentals. Underwrite conservatively — don't bank on rate cuts to bail out your deal. Industrial and multifamily remain most insulated from rate volatility. Office and retail carry highest rate sensitivity risk. Dry powder ready? Opportunities emerging as stability returns.
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Welcome back to What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Tuesday, February 3rd, 2026. Today we're spotlighting the hottest rental markets in America right now.

🔥 What's Hot — Rent Growth Leaders: San Francisco is experiencing a rental surge — the strongest growth in over a decade. January 2026 median rent hit $3,156 for one-bedrooms, with YoY growth at 13.3% per Apartment List. Zumper reports even steeper: 16.1% for one-bedrooms and 19% for two-bedrooms YoY. The drivers: return-to-office mandates and AI hiring boom drawing high-income workers back into a supply-constrained market. Virginia Beach, VA leading with +5% YoY rent growth — benefiting from defense sector stability and limited new supply. Miami forecast to lead 2026 with 3.8% annual rent growth, followed by Seattle at 3.7% and Fort Lauderdale at 3.5%. Nationally, effective asking rents expected to return to growth in 2026, climbing 2.3% — a big shift from the 0.7% contraction in 2025.

❄️ What's Not — Oversupply Markets Still Struggling: Austin continues to struggle — median rent down 6.3% YoY, still digesting massive supply wave. National vacancy at record 7.3% — highest in the index going back to 2017. Rents nationally down for six straight months — largest annual drop in over two years. Sun Belt oversupply markets still working through excess inventory.

💡 Investor Takeaway: San Francisco, Virginia Beach, Miami, and Seattle are the rent growth leaders right now. If you're targeting income growth, these supply-constrained markets with job catalysts are outperforming. Austin and other oversupplied Sun Belt markets need more time to stabilize — stay patient or hunt for deep value.

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Welcome back to What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Monday, February 2nd, 2026. Today we're diving into the latest residential and multifamily data — and the supply wave is finally receding.
🔥 What's Hot — Supply Wave Cresting, Fundamentals Tightening: Apartment completions dropping sharply: 422,000 units forecast for 2026, down from 536,000 in 2025 — a 21% decline. Construction starts plummeted since 2022 peak — fewer new units means tighter supply ahead. National vacancy expected to ease from 8.5% to 8.4% in second half of 2026. Bay Area leading rent growth: San Francisco at 5.9%, San Jose at 3.4%. Chicago multifamily tightening — vacancy falling, rent growth outpacing national. Dallas net absorption outpaced new supply for first time since 2021. Mortgage rates dropped to 6.18% as of late January.
❄️ What's Not — Sun Belt Oversupply Still Digesting: Sun Belt markets still absorbing heavy 2024-2025 deliveries — many newly delivered units remain unleased. Los Angeles median rent dropped to four-year low. National rent growth still modest — CoStar projecting only 1% by year-end 2026. Vacancy nationally still elevated at 8.5%. Markets like Austin, Phoenix, Tampa still tenant-favorable with concessions ongoing.
💡 Investor Takeaway: The 2026 multifamily story is clear: supply is finally receding. Target markets with limited new construction — Midwest and Northeast metros leading rent growth. Bay Area and Chicago showing strength. Sun Belt oversupply will take until late 2026 to absorb. The window to acquire before fundamentals tighten is narrowing.
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