Hot Not CRE

Welcome back to What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Friday, January 30th, 2026. Today we're tracking where institutional capital is flowing — and where it's staying away.
🔥 What's Hot — Data Centers and Industrial Lead Capital Inflows: CRE investment activity expected to increase 16% in 2026, reaching $562 billion — approaching pre-pandemic levels. Data centers dominating: $602 billion in AI infrastructure investment projected for 2026 — up 36% from 2025. Blackstone reported $71.5 billion of inflows in Q4 2025 alone — focusing heavily on digital and energy infrastructure. Data center sector growing at 14% CAGR, creating $1.2 trillion in real estate asset value over next five years. Industrial supply down 70% from pandemic peak — vacancy set to tighten late 2026, creating pricing power. Multifamily workforce housing attracting income-focused capital.
❄️ What's Not — Office and Oversupplied Class A Multifamily: Smart money still avoiding older office — performance gap between prime and secondary widening. Class A multifamily in Sun Belt oversupply zones still on the "avoid" list. CMBS activity largely driven by refinancings, not acquisitions — sign of caution.
📍 Where Smart Money Is Targeting: Geographic focus on high-cash-flow Midwest cities and fast-growing Sun Belt metros — Dallas-Fort Worth, Nashville, Charlotte leading. Property types: Data centers, industrial logistics, multifamily workforce housing, build-to-rent.
💡 Investor Takeaway: Follow the smart money into data centers, industrial, and workforce housing. Target Midwest cash flow and Sun Belt growth markets. Avoid older office and oversupplied Class A multifamily. This is an income-driven year — asset selection matters more than ever.
That wraps up the week! Have a great weekend.
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Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Thursday, January 29th, 2026. Today we're comparing Class A, B, and C multifamily — and there's a clear winner for 2026.

🔥 What's Hot — Class B Workforce Housing Dominates: Class B occupancy at 95.8% vs Class A at 95.7% — and Class B has held stronger Workforce housing outperforming luxury in rent growth — price gap allows Class B to push rents with less resistance Shortage of Class B and C workforce housing remains acute — demand is structural, not cyclical Value-add Class B strategy attracting capital — stable cash flows make it central to income-oriented strategies Northeast Class B seeing 4-5% rent growth; Midwest steady at 3-4.5% MBA forecasting $419 billion in new multifamily loans for 2026 — much targeting workforce housing

❄️ What's Not — Class A in Oversupplied Markets: Sun Belt Class A facing deep concessions — Phoenix has highest concession rate in country 500,000 new units still in lease-up phase from 2025 — mostly Class A Austin, Phoenix, Raleigh, Orlando remain challenged through late 2026 Class A concessions masking true rent performance — inflating valuations and creating CMBS risk

🔄 Class C — Mixed Bag: Facing margin squeeze: rent limits, rising insurance, maintenance costs Older Class C struggling as renters have more options But affordable Class C in strong locations still benefiting from workforce demand 💡

Investor Takeaway: Class B workforce housing is the strongest play for 2026 — durable demand, manageable expense pressure, and capital access. Class A in oversupplied Sun Belt markets is weakest — avoid until concessions burn off late 2026. Class C can work, but only with hands-on management.

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Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Wednesday, January 28th, 2026. Today we're tracking the 10-year Treasury and what it signals for CRE deal flow. 

🔥 What's Hot — Rate Stability Unlocking Capital: 10-Year Treasury at 4.22-4.25% this week — the stability zone unlocking deal flow Fed holding steady at 3.5-3.75%; markets pricing 45% odds of June cut; two total cuts expected in 2026 CRE transaction volume projected to increase 15-20%; institutional and cross-border capital re-entering Cap rate spreads attractive at 2.29% average (2021-2026) — better than long-term average of 2.15% Sale-leaseback activity benefiting from Treasury stability 

❄️ What's Not — Inflation Sticky, Cuts Uncertain: Inflation still above Fed's 2% target — limiting aggressive cuts J.P. Morgan no longer expects January cut; some forecasts show Fed on hold through all 2026 2021-2022 vintage floating rate debt still creating distress Office cap rates most sensitive: 78 bps move per 100 bps Treasury change; industrial most insulated at 41 bps 

📊 Why It Matters: The 10-year at 4.22% with stability is the key signal. Absolute level matters less than predictability. Transaction volume rising 15-20% signals confidence returning. But sticky inflation means fewer cuts than hoped. 

💡 Investor Takeaway: Treasury stability is more important than Treasury level. At 4.22%, the math works for well-located assets with strong cash flow. Industrial and multifamily most insulated. Office and retail most exposed. Expect two cuts in 2026, but don't bank on more. 

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Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Tuesday, January 27th, 2026. Today we're tracking where rent growth is surging and where momentum is fading. 
🔥 What's Hot — Markets Leading Rent Growth: San Jose & San Francisco — Tech Recovery: San Jose leading at 4.3% projected rent growth; San Francisco at 4.2%; limited supply plus tech hiring rebound driving performance; Bay Area making a comeback Norfolk, Virginia — Defense Sector: Projected 4.2% rent growth; limited new construction keeps supply tight Miami & Fort Lauderdale — South Florida Still Strong: Miami at 3.8% annual rent growth; Fort Lauderdale at 3.5%; migration from high-tax states continues; avoiding oversupply unlike other Sun Belt markets Midwest — Balanced Fundamentals: Cincinnati, Columbus, Detroit, Kansas City all at 3-3.1% growth; Chicago and Indianapolis at 3-3.4%; consistent performers without volatility 
❄️ What's Not — Markets Losing Momentum: Austin — Oversupply Persists: Significant rent declines continuing; overbuilding combined with slowing population growth Phoenix & Tampa — Negative Trends: Phoenix seeing declines in some submarkets; Tampa projecting negative rent growth through year-end Denver — Vacancy Climbing: Rising vacancies in new urban apartments 
📊 Why It Matters: Regional divergence is the story. National rent growth stabilizes around 2-3%, but the spread between winners and losers is significant. Bay Area and South Florida outperforming on limited supply. Midwest delivering consistent growth. Austin, Phoenix, Tampa, and Denver still working through oversupply. 
💡 Investor Takeaway: Follow the supply constraints. San Jose, San Francisco, Norfolk, and Miami leading on limited deliveries. Midwest offers stability. Avoid Austin, Phoenix, and Tampa until absorption catches up. Market selection is everything. 
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Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Monday, January 26th, 2026. Let's kick off the week with the latest residential and multifamily data. 
🔥 What's Hot — Supply Relief Is Finally Here: Apartment Deliveries Down 34% — Nationally, apartment deliveries are projected to decline nearly 34% over the next year; the supply relief multifamily has been waiting for Texas Leading the Turnaround — Completions expected to average ~11,700 units/quarter in 2026; roughly half the quarterly volume from 2024-2025 New Construction Starts Down 70% — Developers broke ground on just 395,000 units expected in 2026, down from 410,000 in 2025; pipeline shrinking fast Developer Sentiment Shifting Positive — 70% of NMHC survey respondents believe conditions will improve in 2026; financing getting easier Select Markets Bucking Trend — Los Angeles deliveries nearly doubling to 15,500 units; Detroit seeing 77% increase with 3,100 units; San Diego and Anaheim up over 70% 
❄️ What's Not — Vacancy Rates Still Elevated: National Vacancy at Record High — 7.3% in January 2026; record high for Apartment List index dating back to 2017 Denver Metro at 16-Year High — Arapahoe and Denver counties tied at 8.2% vacancy Sun Belt Still Absorbing — Tampa projected to see negative rent growth through year-end; San Antonio rent growth not expected to turn positive until Q4 Vacancy Expected to Stay Elevated — National vacancy around 8.4-8.5% through 2026; won't drop below 8% until 2027 or 2028 
📊 Why It Matters: The multifamily market is at an inflection point. Supply is finally slowing — down 34% in deliveries, down 70% in new starts. But vacancy hasn't caught up yet. We're in the lag period where supply relief is real but absorption takes time. Rent growth expected to be modest — consensus around 2% for the year, CoStar projecting just 1% by year-end. Low-supply markets in the Northeast and Midwest will outperform. Sun Belt markets need more time. Bright spot: wage growth and cooling inflation strengthening real incomes. Reduced move-outs to single-family homes deepening the rental demand pool. Fundamentals setting up for recovery — but patience is required. 
💡 Investor Takeaway: Supply relief is here but vacancy remains elevated. This is the setup for a 2027 recovery, not a 2026 sprint. Focus on low-supply markets — Northeast and Midwest. Avoid high-vacancy Sun Belt metros until absorption accelerates. Underwrite conservatively on rent growth — 2% is the realistic baseline. 
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Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Friday, January 23rd, 2026. We're closing out the week by following the money — where institutional capital is actually flowing right now. 
🔥 What's Hot — Where Capital Is Flowing: Data Centers — The Breakout Star — Data center funds attracted 37% of capital in 2025, up from just 2% in 2024; the biggest allocation shift we've seen; AI-driven workloads creating structural undersupply; strategic markets: Dallas, Northern Virginia, Chicago Industrial & Logistics — Reshoring driving demand in secondary markets; cap rates at 5-5.5%; investors accept it for stability and long-term fundamentals Real Estate Debt — Debt dominating over equity; senior loans yielding 8-10% with downside protection; credit is the new equity Secondary Markets & Midwest — Cleveland, Memphis, Detroit, Philadelphia delivering 8-14% cash-on-cash returns; capital rotating from coastal gateways to high-cash-flow cities 
❄️ What's Not — What Smart Money Is Avoiding: Office — Only trophy assets trading; broad office exposure remains a pass for most institutional capital Sun Belt Class A Multifamily — Multifamily allocation dropped to 32% from 49% in 2024; oversupply concerns weighing on sentiment High-Leverage Floating Rate Deals — 2021-2022 vintage debt creating distress; smart money positioning as rescue capital, not bag holders 
📊 Why It Matters: CRE investment projected up 16% in 2026 to $562 billion — nearly matching pre-pandemic levels. But capital is concentrated: data centers saw the biggest allocation shift in years, industrial remains steady, debt strategies dominating. Returns will be income-driven — asset selection is everything. 
💡 Investor Takeaway: Data centers are the growth story of 2026. Industrial for stability. Debt for income. Secondary markets for better risk-adjusted returns. Be selective, prioritize income, and follow where big funds are writing checks. 
That wraps up the week! Have a great weekend. 
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Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Thursday, January 22nd, 2026. Today we're breaking down multifamily by class — A, B, and C — and picking a clear winner for 2026. 🔥 What's Hot — Class B Workforce Housing Takes the Crown: Class B Outperforming Class A — Class B multifamily is outperforming luxury assets in rent growth and expected to continue through 2026; this is the institutional consensus trade Price Gap Advantage — The price difference between workforce housing and luxury units averages $501-$685 per month in major metros; that affordability advantage is durable demand High Retention Rates — Lower and mid-priced properties seeing high retention rates; tenants priced out of homeownership are staying put; demand among middle-income households is less sensitive to rent increases Institutional Capital Returning — Value-add strategies are back; institutional investors recognizing the value in workforce housing repositioning plays Regional Winners — Northeast and Midwest Class B properties seeing modest rent growth while avoiding oversupply; low-supply markets outperforming Structural Affordability Crisis — Middle-income renters need Class B; this is not cyclical, it's demographic ❄️ What's Not — Class A in Oversupplied Sun Belt Markets: South Region Vacancy at 9.0% — Compared to Midwest at 6.6% and Northeast at 5.2%; the Sun Belt boom overshot demand Urban Core Pressure — Vacancy in principal cities rose to 7.6%, ahead of suburbs at 6.7%; new Class A supply is squeezing urban operators Heavy Concession Markets — Austin, San Antonio, Dallas, Denver, Nashville, Las Vegas all offering heavy concessions; Texas dominates the concession list Extended Absorption Timeline — Austin and Phoenix may take until late 2026 or longer to work through supply glut; Dallas, Houston, Nashville, South Florida expected to ease in second half of 2026 Class A in oversupplied markets = compressed NOI, extended lease-up timelines, and capital calls Class C — Mixed Picture — Demand remains stable from lower-income households less sensitive to rent increases; but limited capital access for improvements and higher expense pressure; not the worst, not the best 📊 Why It Matters: The multifamily market is bifurcated. National averages are misleading. Class B workforce housing in supply-constrained markets offers rent growth durability, stable tenant demand, and institutional capital access. Class A in oversupplied Sun Belt metros is facing a prolonged absorption cycle. Asset selection and market selection are everything in 2026. 💡 Investor Takeaway: Class B workforce housing is the strongest play for 2026 — durable demand, high retention rates, affordability advantage, and institutional backing. Avoid Class A in Austin, Phoenix, Dallas, Nashville until concessions ease. Class C works if you have operational expertise. Pick your class, pick your market, and underwrite conservatively. Thanks for tuning in. See you tomorrow! Don't forget to Like, Share and Subscribe! Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.

Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Wednesday, January 21st, 2026. Today we're following the bond market — because where the 10-year Treasury goes, CRE follows. 
🔥 What's Hot — Treasury Stability Unlocks Deal Flow: Treasury at 4.29% — The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.29% today, down 0.01% from yesterday; after late 2024 volatility, Treasury is settling into the 4.0%-4.3% range CRE investors have been waiting for; this stability is the green light the market needed Deal Volume Returning — CRE investment activity projected to increase 16% in 2026, potentially reaching $562 billion — nearly matching pre-pandemic levels; bond market stabilization is unlocking transaction flow; buyers and sellers can finally underwrite with confidence Cap Rate Compression Ahead — With Treasury yields stabilizing, cap rates expected to compress 5-15 basis points; industrial and Class B multifamily leading the way; bid-ask spread is narrowing Multifamily Debt Markets Robust — Lenders are back; senior loans yielding 8-10% providing attractive risk-adjusted returns 
❄️ What's Not — Headwinds Remain: Fed Uncertainty — Don't expect aggressive rate cuts; J.P. Morgan expects Fed to remain on hold through all of 2026 at 3.5-3.75%; Goldman Sachs slightly more optimistic, forecasting cuts in March/June to 3-3.25%; Fed's own dot plot suggests just one 25 bps cut this year Inflation Still Sticky — Annualized inflation at 2.7%, still above Fed's 2% target; Fed doesn't expect to hit target until 2028; higher-for-longer is the reality Rising Construction Costs — Interest rates and construction costs squeezing developer margins; project viability challenged; new supply will remain constrained Fed Chair Transition — Jerome Powell's term expires May 15th; new Fed Chair selection could introduce volatility; watch this closely 
📊 Why It Matters: The 10-year Treasury is the benchmark for CRE. At 4.29%, we're in a zone that works — not great, but workable. The key insight: stability matters more than the absolute level. When the 10-year bounces between 3.8% and 4.5%, nobody can underwrite. When it sits steady around 4.2-4.3%, deals get done. A stable 10-year in the 4.0-4.25% range with inflation around 3% is supportive for commercial real estate. 
💡 Investor Takeaway: Treasury stability at 4.29% is bullish for deal flow. Expect cap rate compression of 5-15 bps. Don't count on aggressive Fed cuts — higher-for-longer is the base case. Focus on income-producing assets that work at current rates. The transaction market is thawing — be ready to move. 
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Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Tuesday, January 20th, 2026. Today we're tracking where rents are actually growing — the hottest U.S. rental markets by year-over-year rent growth. 
🔥 What's Hot — Rent Growth Leaders: San Jose & San Francisco — Leading the Pack — Bay Area is back on top; San Jose projecting 4.3% rent growth, San Francisco at 4.2%; limited new supply, tech employment stabilizing, vacancy tight at 4.6%; the supply cliff is hitting here first Chicago — Midwest Momentum — Posted 4.2% YoY rent growth, highest among 10 largest U.S. metros; data center expansion driving employment; vacancy projected to drop from 4.6% to 4.4% by mid-2026 Norfolk, Virginia — The Sleeper Pick — Projecting 4.2% rent growth; defense spending, port activity, and limited supply are the drivers; flies under the radar but delivers Philadelphia & Indianapolis — Supply-Constrained Winners — Both projecting 3% to 3.4% rent growth; classic Midwest/Northeast plays with affordable entry points and limited new construction Seattle — West Coast Rebound — Projecting 3% to 3.4% rent growth; tech layoffs stabilized, Amazon and Microsoft hiring normalizing; limited new supply coming online 
❄️ What's Not — Sun Belt Struggles Continue: Dallas — Down 0.8% YoY; still absorbing 2023-2024 oversupply; concessions remain elevated Houston — Down 0.7% YoY; same oversupply story Miami — Down 0.5% YoY; supply overhang persists Austin — Still working through massive supply pipeline; no near-term recovery expected National Asking Rents — Down 29 consecutive months YoY; median asking rent across 50 largest metros is $1,689, down 0.7% from December 2024; but heavily weighted by Sun Belt softness 
📊 Why It Matters: The rental market is bifurcating sharply. Midwest and Northeast markets are outperforming — Chicago, Philly, Indianapolis all showing strength. West Coast supply-constrained markets like San Jose and San Francisco are rebounding. Meanwhile, Sun Belt markets that drove the 2021-2022 boom are now lagging. National rent growth forecasts range from flat to 2.4% — but averages hide the real story. Market selection is everything. 
💡 Investor Takeaway: Target rent growth markets: Bay Area, Chicago, Philadelphia, Indianapolis, Norfolk, Seattle. Avoid oversupplied Sun Belt metros until absorption catches up. The Midwest and Northeast are the rent growth story of 2026. Position accordingly. 
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Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Monday, January 19th, 2026. Let's talk residential and multifamily — the big story this week is the supply cliff finally arriving. 🔥 What's Hot — The Supply Cliff Arrives: The Supply Cliff Is Real — Apartment completions dropping to ~300K units in 2026, roughly half of the 2024 peak; construction starts plunged 71% from Q1 2022 peak; this is the landlord tailwind investors have been waiting for Class B Workforce Housing — Steady renter demand plus restrained new supply equals pricing power; mid-tier multifamily continues to outperform; the sweet spot for 2026 Northeast & Midwest Markets — Pittsburgh, Newark, Boston, New York seeing activity with tighter fundamentals than Sun Belt; Bay Area particularly tight at 4.6% vacancy vs 7.3% national average Single-Family Inventory Recovery — Up nearly 9% YoY and about 20% higher than a year ago; existing home sales expected to rise 14% in 2026; a steadier, more balanced market emerging ❄️ What's Not — Headwinds Remain: National Vacancy at Record 7.3% — The number to watch; Sun Belt markets still absorbing excess 2023-2024 deliveries Sun Belt Oversupply — Austin, Phoenix, Nashville, Miami still working through the glut; 12-18 months of pain ahead Class A Luxury Struggles — Oversupply driving rent stagnation and heavy concessions; expect rent specials through H1 2026 Sticky Mortgage Rates — Averaging ~6.3% in 2026; better than last year's 6.6% but not the relief buyers hoped for Florida & Texas Depreciation — Led nation in annual market depreciation; some forecasts show price drops in 22 of largest 100 U.S. cities 📊 Why It Matters: The market is bifurcating. The supply cliff creates opportunity in multifamily — but only in the right markets and product types. Class B in supply-constrained markets like Northeast and Midwest is where the upside is. Class A in oversupplied Sun Belt metros still has pain ahead. Rent growth expected to accelerate in H2 2026 as supply normalizes — forecasts point to 2.4% YoY growth. 💡 Investor Takeaway: The supply cliff is your friend in 2026 — but market selection is everything. Target Class B multifamily in supply-constrained regions. Avoid oversupplied Sun Belt luxury plays until vacancy normalizes. Patience in the first half, opportunity in the second. Thanks for tuning in. See you tomorrow! Don't forget to Like, Share and Subscribe! Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.