#hottakeoftheday

DRW makes a LARGE carbon footprint this week starting in Scottsdale, Denver, Oklahoma City and San Diego… but fortunately, Delta is going to plant some trees….

This week on the show....it's an earnings-palooza and by request (and an absolutely exasperating Q4 announcement) we have our subject for #TechnicalTuesday where we will talk Antero. I read the 358 page 10K and we have A LOT to cover as the poster child to all that is wrong with the gas market in America. 

We talk Marathon… and growing oil… GROWING???!  Supply-demand anyone?  It’s in this book I know on economics…

We talk Noble. Big Q4 writedown, significant reduction in 2020 capital but I need a notepad to follow the press release. But, they are also the company I think that should launch a hostile takeover for #mergeCDEVmerge and I remain perplexed as to why companies aren’t launching hostile takeovers yet.

We talk Quick Dick McDick and compare to BP’s “new 2050 strategy”.  Apparently, they didn’t realize that Yahoo! is no longer relevant in the age of Google… disruption is because a different company does it better.

We talk CNX Resources and why investors are really staying away from the oil and gas industry.

We talk layoffs at Extraction. 

Extraction Oil and Gas co-founder, President and Acting CEO is a 2019 DBJ Most Admired CEO Kathleen Lavine, Denver Business Journal

The personal toll that the Crisis of Balance Sheets is taking in a word... sucks.

It doesn't help to know that misery loves company, but I can tell you I've been there and it just means your river is going a different direction right now. But if misery DOES love company, this is my chapter in it.

My Dad always says, "there's a better card on top". You might not see it yet. But its there. And you are NOT your career.

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Blubrry or your favorite podcast platform.

Thoughts on the episode? Please let me know by sharing in the comments below!

A torrential flood threatens the golf trip, Chevron “we are built for this”, Cabot 2020 guidance and Parsley Energy and Baytex Energy refi some debt.  Are we going to see merger Monday or is Noah still on a golf trip while the ark is in for repairs?

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Blubrry or your favorite podcast platform.

Thoughts on the episode? Please let me know by sharing in the comments below! Like the episode? Post a review. Got a question for a future episode? Send an email.

Related Mentions:

NAPE 2020What the F@&K is Wrong with Everybody Else?-What They Didn’t Teach You in Business School Ak-Chin Southern Dunes GolfMichael WirthJim CramerChevronExxonMobileOPECCabot Oil & GasHabitat for HumanityWPX EnergyFelix Energy

On today's episode we tried something a little different. With all my recent posts on executive compensation and the failures of leadership, I read a chapter from "What the F@&K..." called "You Pay Them What?" to tee up a discussion on leadership, compensation, communication and the two-way street in advance of year end conversations about YOUR compensation and bonus.

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Blubrry or your favorite podcast platform.

Thoughts on the episode? Please let me know by sharing in the comments below!

Related Mentions:

What the F@&k is Wrong with Everybody Else?Ray DalioVicki HollubOccidental Petroleum ($OXY)Centennial Resources Development ($CDEV)

A 12 minute roundup for your commute with topics that include:

CNBC report on “oil and gas is dead” – young money managers….

Exxon & Chevron earnings

CDEV

Oasis

The oil & gas company formerly known as Encana (Ovintiv?)

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Blubrry or your favorite podcast platform.

Thoughts on the episode? Please let me know by sharing in the comments below!

Related Mentions:

Bernie SandersElizabeth WarrenCoronavirusQasem Soleimani

Met with Todd Brooker, President of Cawley, Gillespie & Associates, to talk reserves, spacing, the SEC and all good things reservoir.  Plus, some travel tips on coming to Austin for food, golf and what to do on 6th St.

About Todd Brooker

Todd's official Bio:Todd is President at CG&A and has been with the firm since 1992. As a Reservoir Engineer, his responsibilities include reserves and economics evaluations, fair market valuations, field studies, pipeline resource studies, and acquisition/divestiture analysis. His reserve reports are routinely used for public company SEC disclosures. His experience includes significant projects in both conventional and unconventional resources in every major U.S. producing basin and abroad. He is based in Austin and has managed that office since its opening in 2002. Prior to joining CG&A, Todd worked in the Gulf of Mexico drilling and production engineering at Chevron USA in New Orleans, Louisiana. He graduated Magna Cum Laude from the University of Texas at Austin in 1989 with a BS degree in Petroleum Engineering. He is a registered professional engineer in Texas, a member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) and the Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers (SPEE).

In addition, other than an affinity for and and appreciation of good sushi, other fun facts about Todd include:

* Born and raised in Tuscaloosa, Alabama through age 14;* Big Alabama Crimson Tide fan, father played football for Bear Bryant in early 1960’s; KC Chiefs in mid-1960’s;* Moved to Dallas, Texas with mom during sophomore year of high school;* Chose an engineering route at a big school over playing golf at a smaller school;* UT Petroleum Engineering degree earned in 1989 (with 3 awesome summer jobs);* Worked for Chevron USA in New Orleans and in Gulf of Mexico through 1992, drilling and production;* Joined Cawley, Gillespie & Associates in Fort Worth, Texas as a young, green Reservoir Engineer;* Opened the Austin office for CG&A in 2002, grew to 13 associates today;* Became President of the firm in 2017;* Married 26 years 

Connect with Todd: LinkedIn | Twitter | Facebook |

Grab a nice warm bowl of …. Soup from a market in Wuhan and join us for the #hottakeover this week where we talk about the coronavirus and how it may change my beer preferences, the impact on global oil demand (1.386 billion people in China, 11 million in Wuhan, 41 dead, 13.5 mmbbl/d oil demand in China….. I’m not seeing it), the baby it’s not cold outside gas price going below $1.90/mcf and Lilis Energy’s announcement of their borrowing base redetermination. 

** Note: In the podcast, 2017 US influenza death estimates are quoted as 80,000, and are referenced in the links below. Because CDC estimates from the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 seasons are preliminary and may change as data are finalized, the CDC has since revised their 2017 death estimate to 61,000.

Thoughts on the episode? Please let me know by sharing in the comments below!

Related Mentions:

Bat SoupCoronavirusCenters for Disease ControlInfluenza deaths - U.S. Rocky Mountain Chapter of the American Association of Drilling Engineers (AADE) DRW AADE Panel DiscussionADAM PresentationQasem Soleimani Libya ProductionChris KalninEQT Corp (EQT)Lilis Energy (LLEX)SMOG

All things Powder River Basin

Also see the Powder River Basin Podcast companion previously posted

“We have some ideas that …are pretty fascinating” Joe DeDominic

About Joe DeDominic

Joe’s official bio:Joe is currently President and Chief Operating Officer of Anschutz Exploration Corporation and its wholly owned subsidiary, Anschutz Oil Company. Over the past 6 years he has led the company, focusing on the Powder River Basin, where Anschutz is currently the largest private leaseholder in the Basin with 500,000 net acres, two active drilling rigs and net production of approximately 10,000 BOEPD.

Prior to joining Anschutz, Joe was Vice President and COO of Sanchez Energy, which focused on the Eagle Ford resources of South Texas. Joe started his career with Occidental Petroleum.  In his 20 plus years at Oxy he held a wide variety of positions including Exploration Geologist, Chief Geologist Colombia, Exploration Manager Libya as well as Director Business Development for the Western Hemisphere. In his last role at Oxy he was President and General Manager for the Williston Basin. Joe has a BA in Geology from the University of Montana and a MS in Geology from Texas A&M.

Thoughts on the episode? Please let me know by sharing in the comments below!

Related Mentions:

WPX Energy (WPX)EOG Resources (EOG)Occidental Petroleum (OXY)Chesapeake Energy (CHK)Devon Energy (DVN)Ballard PetroleumSanchez Energy (SNECQ)Texas A&MHilcorp EnergyHarold HammJerry JonesChris Kalnin

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts,

All things Powder River Basin

Also see the Powder River Basin Podcast companion previously posted

"We have some ideas that …are pretty fascinating" Joe DeDominic

About Joe DeDominic

Joe's official bio:Joe is currently President and Chief Operating Officer of Anschutz Exploration Corporation and its wholly owned subsidiary, Anschutz Oil Company. Over the past 6 years he has led the company, focusing on the Powder River Basin, where Anschutz is currently the largest private leaseholder in the Basin with 500,000 net acres, two active drilling rigs and net production of approximately 10,000 BOEPD.

Prior to joining Anschutz, Joe was Vice President and COO of Sanchez Energy, which focused on the Eagle Ford resources of South Texas. Joe started his career with Occidental Petroleum.  In his 20 plus years at Oxy he held a wide variety of positions including Exploration Geologist, Chief Geologist Colombia, Exploration Manager Libya as well as Director Business Development for the Western Hemisphere. In his last role at Oxy he was President and General Manager for the Williston Basin. Joe has a BA in Geology from the University of Montana and a MS in Geology from Texas A&M.

Thoughts on the episode? Please let me know by sharing in the comments below!

Related Mentions:

WPX Energy (WPX)EOG Resources (EOG)Occidental Petroleum (OXY)Chesapeake Energy (CHK)Devon Energy (DVN)Ballard PetroleumSanchez Energy (SNECQ)Texas A&MHilcorp EnergyHarold HammJerry JonesChris Kalnin

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts,

Hello #hottakenation! For your #hottakeover-your-commute, I just have “this”:

I really can’t stay (Baby it’s not cold outside) My reserves got to go away (EQT it’s not cold outside)This week has been (Been hoping that Laredo refi’d in) So very nice (That new Encana name is like ice) My mother will start to worry (BlackRock says what’s your hurry?) My Varde will be pacing the floor (Lilis bears equity owners roar)Well maybe just a half a drink more (Natural gas records a low on while I pour)

Because baby it’s not cold outside. 

Transcript:

PLEASE NOTE SOME LEGAL STUFF:

David Ramsden-Wood owns the copyright in and to all content in and transcripts of the #hottakeoftheday podcasts, with all rights reserved, as well as his right of publicity.

Episode #7: #hottakeover your commute transcript

And what is up #hottake nation, it is DRW here coming to you live from… actually, I’m not not coming to you live; I want to always say that. But you know really we tape this and then we put out there, so it’s kinda not that exciting, BUT, what I can tell you is NOT up and where we’re going to start your #hottakeover-your-commute this week is natural gas falling below two dollars an MCF on Friday in what can only be described as a brutal punching to the face constantly for all natural gas producers. It is ugly, it is getting uglier, and if this doesn’t get a colder winter we’re going to have gas prices as I said on my what-to-expect in 2020 podcast you could see gas prices in the dollar fifty to dollar seventy five range. It was a great week for us to visit with Chris Kalnin, and I had to reconsider my natural gas bear thesis, in particular that perhaps my bear thesis is “maybe natural gas long-term is the right play”. In fact, I know that it is the right play. The question is when. And what I know in the interim is that if you are a publicly traded company who produces natural gas as a primary and you’re having to keep rigs up to fill your firm transport commitments, this is going to be a horrific year.

And speaking of, let’s start with EQT this week. EQT came out earlier with a reserve revision. They expect a $1.4B to $1.8B dollar charge in Q4, reflecting what can only be described as a beatdown in natural gas prices. Everyone knows because we had a LOT information on it this week. I use SMOG, and not that it was a full SMOG disclosure coming out of EQT, but they did drop – if I go to my handy-dandy spreadsheet – they did drop their SMOG value from 11.6 billion dollars at the end of 2018 to $8.6 billion at the end of 2019, which impacts about half the value of that netted debt, so twenty five dollars per share in 2018 headed down to fourteen that doesn’t include G&A, that doesn’t include interest, that doesn’t include the balance sheet, that doesn’t include the fact that gas is currently two dollars an MCF. It is UGLY if you are natural gas producer. Man, I just… the punches just keep on coming.

But… let’s pivot to the second topic of the week, the first real take-under that we’ve seen. Now, you might be wondering what is a take under. Well, if you check the news you would have seen that Lilis Energy had its primary shareholder Varde make an offer to buy the outstanding remaining shares that they don’t own; they have a big pref position in that company, they have some debt that they that they own in that company, and they have some common equity that they own and they offer twenty five cents a share and at the time, Lilis was trading north of forty cents a share. Now,