In this episode, journalist Puja Mehra speaks with Subhomoy Bhattacharjee, Journalist and Contributing Editor at Business Standard, about the paradox at the heart of India’s coal economy—why the country is sitting on large coal stocks even as it continues to import coal for power generation. They discuss how India’s transition from coal shortages to apparent surplus masks deeper structural problems in production, transportation, pricing, and quality.

Drawing on recent data and policy decisions, Bhattacharjee explains why domestically mined coal often fails to reach power plants economically, how high rail freight costs and geographic mismatches distort supply, and why many plants prefer imported coal despite higher headline prices. The conversation also examines the opening up of coal mining to private players, the weakening of Coal India’s monopoly, and the push towards market-driven coal pricing through proposed coal exchanges.

The discussion concludes by looking ahead to India’s energy future, assessing whether coal consumption has peaked, how rising electricity demand from data centres and the AI economy could reshape power needs, and why coal is likely to remain central to India’s power mix for years to come. Tune in for insights on what India’s coal surplus reveals about infrastructure bottlenecks, market design, and energy policy.

CHAPTERS

(00:00) Introduction to India’s Coal Economy

(02:00) The Coal Surplus Puzzle

(04:00) Why Coal Isn’t Reaching Plants

(06:30) Transport Costs and Rail Bottlenecks

(09:00) Imported Coal vs Domestic Coal

(11:30) Why Plants Aren’t Near Mines

(14:00) Pollution and Poor Plant Location

(16:30) Private Miners and Rising Production

(18:30) Can Coal India Adapt

(21:00) Coal India’s Financial Health

(23:30) Employees and Market Transition

(26:00) Coal Pricing and Linkages

(28:00) Has India’s Coal Use Peaked

(30:30) AI, Data Centres and Power Demand

(33:00) Global Coal Demand Outlook

(35:30) Nuclear Power and the Future

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In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with economist Dr. Jahangir Aziz, Economist (Head Emerging Market Economics) at JPMorgan and a former finance ministry official, about what India’s upcoming Union Budget can realistically achieve amid slowing nominal growth and weak private investment. They discuss how the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation shapes budget choices, even as tax revenues soften and demand remains constrained. Drawing on recent fiscal outcomes, inflation trends, capital market dynamics, and historical episodes such as the global financial crisis, Aziz explains why India’s investment slowdown is no longer cyclical but structural. He unpacks the widening disconnect between strong headline growth and persistently low core inflation, arguing that sustained disinflation signals excess capacity, weak pricing power, and a chronic shortfall of demand. The conversation examines why corporate investment has stagnated for over a decade, how rising industry concentration and limited sectoral churn are dampening incentives to invest, and the role underdeveloped corporate bond and private credit markets play in constraining medium-term financing for firms. Aziz also assesses the limits of budgetary action, the risks of an increasingly intrusive regulatory approach to capital markets, and the implications of slowing nominal GDP for earnings, debt dynamics, and fiscal space. The discussion concludes with reflections on why focusing narrowly on fiscal prudence and “Goldilocks” narratives risks overlooking deeper structural constraints to growth. Tune in for insights on what India’s macroeconomic signals reveal about demand, investment, market concentration, and the policy challenges that lie beyond budget day.

(00:00) Introduction

(00:27) Fiscal deficit and budget strategy

(02:57) Customs duties and tariff constraints

(05:10) Deregulation beyond the budget

(07:30) Capital markets and lack of reform

(11:52) Lessons from the 2008 crisis

(14:57) Corporate credit and market failures

(19:57) Nominal GDP growth concerns

(23:11) Explaining economic slack simply

(26:22) Investment slowdown and policy limits

(29:10) Structural causes of weak investment

(33:14) Industry concentration and ministries’ role

(34:40) Closing remarks

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In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with economist Partha Chatterjee and Dean of Academics at Shiv Nadar University. They talk about how the Indian economy is really performing beneath the headline numbers and what recent data signals about growth prospects through 2026. Drawing on the latest GDP estimates, inflation readings, labour market indicators, and credit trends, Chatterjee explains why strong real GDP growth and low inflation—hailed by the Reserve Bank of India as a “Goldilocks” phase—mask growing imbalances across sectors. He unpacks the widening gap between real and nominal GDP growth, the emergence of deflationary pressures in agriculture and parts of manufacturing, and why subdued price growth has serious implications for incomes, profitability, and government finances. The conversation examines the sources of current demand, including public capital expenditure, rising household credit, and the expanding role of cash transfers, and questions how sustainable this mix is over the medium term. Chatterjee also assesses the limits of industrial policy tools such as PLI schemes, their weak employment impact, and the risks posed by slowing job creation, stagnant rural wages, and rising import dependence. The discussion concludes with reflections on the policy trade-offs facing the government and the RBI, and why characterising the economy as “Goldilocks” risks complacency at a time of heightened global volatility. Tune in for insights on what India’s growth numbers reveal—and conceal—about jobs, incomes, fiscal space, and economic resilience.

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In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with trade policy expert Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), about the impact of steep US tariffs on India’s exports and what the latest data reveals about the state of India–US trade negotiations. Drawing on sector-wise export trends, Srivastava explains the puzzling two-step trajectory in India’s exports to the US—a sharp initial fall followed by a partial recovery even as tariffs climbed to 50%—and outlines why this resilience may be driven by temporary adjustments.

He also examines whether India can realistically diversify away from the US market, why such shifts are slow and constrained by India’s export basket, and how global competition—particularly from China—limits alternative options. The conversation also touches on India’s recent spurt of free trade agreements, arguing that they reflect a revival of stalled negotiations rather than a fundamental shift in trade strategy. The discussion highlights why the India–US talks go far beyond a conventional trade agreement, touching on agriculture, domestic policy autonomy, and strategic concerns that India has consistently treated as red lines. Tune in for insights on what the trade data signals about India’s negotiating space, the costs of prolonged uncertainty, and the limits of compromise in a high-stakes economic relationship.

(00:00) Setting the India–US trade context

(00:42) Sharp export decline and partial rebound

(02:44) Why exports revived despite higher tariffs

(03:06) How exporters are sharing tariff losses

(05:33) Why the recovery may not last

(06:44) Is export diversification really happening

(09:27) Why tariffs won’t speed negotiations

(10:12) Trade deal versus strategic demands

(12:34) Employment risks from prolonged tariffs

(13:13) India’s non-negotiable red lines

(14:21) What India can realistically offer

(15:57) Country-specific versus MFN concessions

(16:45) Are India’s FTAs a strategy shift

(18:35) Why FTAs are being fast-tracked

(19:16) Using data to read trade signals

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In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with economist N. R. Bhanumurthy about the rise of women-focused cash transfer schemes and what they reveal about India’s social policy priorities. Drawing on his evaluations of early pilots in Madhya Pradesh that shaped the Ladli Behna programme, Bhanumurthy explains why cash outperforms kind transfers, how implementation improved with better beneficiary identification and payment systems, and what the evidence shows about nutrition gains for women and children.

He also addresses concerns that these schemes are becoming political tools or crowding out spending on health and education, arguing instead that the real issue is the lack of rationalisation across hundreds of overlapping state schemes. The conversation highlights why mobility remains a major barrier for women, why free bus travel could have long-term economic benefits, and how India’s current gender budgeting framework must shift from accounting to outcomes. Tune in for insights on how welfare can be redesigned to advance gender equity.

SHOW NOTES

(00:00) Introduction

(00:14) How Cash Transfer Ideas Began

(01:00) Early Schemes in Madhya Pradesh

(04:04) Lessons from Ground Evaluations

(04:47) What Worked and What Didn’t

(06:40) Cash vs Kind: Key Findings

(07:54) Misuse Concerns and Realities

(09:24) Are Schemes Becoming Political?

(10:16) Welfare, Politics, and Gender Gaps

(12:44) Cash Transfers vs Public Services

(13:28) Do Transfers Reduce State Effort?

(15:03) Fiscal Risks and Scheme Overlap

(15:32) Why States Must Rationalise

(17:16) Free Bus Travel for Women

(19:05) Short-Term vs Long-Term Impact

(20:36) Mobility, Culture, and Labour Gaps

(21:32) Women’s Work and Growth Potential

(23:59) Rethinking India’s Gender Budgeting

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In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with economist Arjun Jayadev, Director at the Centre for the Study of the Indian Economy (CSIE) at Azim Premji University and co-author of a major new study on how India’s demographic dividend has actually contributed to economic growth across states. Jayadev explains why India’s per-capita growth has diverged sharply across regions, how GDP per capita can be decomposed into productivity, employment, and demographic effects, and what this reveals about the three distinct phases of India’s post-liberalisation growth story. He outlines why the 2004–2017 period saw East Asian–level productivity surges in states such as Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Karnataka, why employment ratios simultaneously collapsed, and how the years since 2017 have been defined by a worrying fall in labour productivity despite a rise in employment.

Jayadev also highlights the structural risks ahead: young states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh that are unable to generate high-productivity jobs; ageing states like Kerala and Himachal Pradesh that are losing demographic tailwinds; and the national challenge of absorbing millions into productive work before the demographic dividend fully fades. Drawing on granular state-level data and labour force trends, he argues that India is at risk of “growing old before it grows rich,” and that the next decade must focus on expanding high-productivity employment, enabling migration, and designing state-specific strategies rather than uniform national prescriptions. Tune in for insights on what India must prioritise now to convert its demographic window into sustained and inclusive economic growth.

(00:00) Introduction

(00:14) What the demographic dividend really means

(01:36) How the study decomposes GDP per capita

(01:58) The three components of growth explained

(05:55) Why early job absorption lagged

(07:14) Phase 2 (2004–2017): jobless growth and soaring productivity

(10:47) Phase 3 (post-2017): collapsing labour productivity

(11:02) Rise of low-productivity, agriculture-heavy employment

(12:21) What the findings mean for policymakers

(13:55) Young vs ageing states: diverging economic futures

(15:38) India vs Japan: productivity and demographics

(17:26) East Asian–level productivity in Indian states

(19:52) What states must do now to create productive jobs

(22:04) How India squandered its demographic dividend

(23:22) Why lagging states must urgently generate high-productivity work

(24:01) The warning signs ahead

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In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with economist Prachi Mishra, Professor at the Department of Economics, and Director and Head of Isaac Center for Public Policy at Ashoka University and lead author of a forthcoming report on how the Bihar can accelerate its path to Viksit Bihar. Mishra explains why Bihar must aim for sustained double-digit growth to close its large per-capita income gap with the rest of India, and why doing so requires more than traditional agriculture or services-led expansion. She outlines how Bihar can unlock growth by pursuing targeted agro-industrialisation around crops such as maize, makhana and litchi, scaling tourism through distributed cultural circuits and diaspora engagement, developing GCC and special economic and logistics zones, and improving the quality and allocation of public capital spending. Mishra also highlights the need for stronger state capacity — from law and order to skilling and logistics — better revenue mobilisation including property taxes, and clearer fiscal rules to balance transfers and investment. Drawing on empirical analysis and a granular, district-level roadmap, she argues that Bihar’s greatest opportunity lies in strategic industrial policy that links geography, value addition and employment. Tune in for insights on what the new government must prioritise to turn Bihar’s potential into sustained prosperity.

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In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with economist Dr. Nisha Taneja, Professor at ICRIER and author of a comprehensive study on India–China trade, about how India can recalibrate its economic relationship with China. Taneja explains why India’s imports from China continue to rise despite policy tightening and geopolitical tensions, and why efforts to restrict trade have not reduced dependence. She outlines how India can expand its export base by targeting a $161 billion opportunity in pharmaceuticals, machinery, shrimp, gems, and tourism, while building competitiveness in medium and high-tech sectors. Taneja also highlights the need for a clearer institutional framework to separate politics from trade, encourage investment in manufacturing, and deepen business-to-business dialogue. Drawing on decades of research, she argues that India’s real leverage lies in its human capital and its ability to diversify. Tune in for insights on how India can seize an opportunity with China that it has too long overlooked.

RESOURCE LINKS

https://icrier.org/pdf/Calibrating_India_s_Economic.pdf

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In this episode, Puja Mehra speaks with economist Dr. Anoop Singh, author of Managing Public Finances in a New Global Era: India’s Experiences and Challenges, about how India can strengthen fiscal discipline in an age of slowing trade and rising public debt. Singh explains why the world is shifting from trade-driven to fiscal-driven growth and how India must confront the challenges of opaque accounting, off-budget borrowing, and mounting subsidies. He highlights the urgent need for common definitions across states, transparent reporting, and institutional reform to ensure that every rupee spent is visible and accountable. Drawing on lessons from global peers, Singh argues that sustainable growth depends on seeing and managing what governments spend. “You cannot manage what you can’t see,” he warns. Tune in for insights on how India can build a more transparent and resilient fiscal framework for the years ahead.

PDF - The State of State Finances in India: Bridging the Data Gaps: https://www.thecore.in/h-library/is-3aanoops.pdf

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In this episode, Puja Mehra speaks with economist Dr. Rajat Kathuria about the evolving landscape of India-US trade relations and the broader challenges of global economic engagement. Kathuria explains how India must balance political sensitivities in sectors like agriculture while ensuring competitive access to the US market. He highlights the importance of tariff reductions, strategic concessions, and diversification in trade and energy imports to attract investment and strengthen economic resilience. The discussion also delves into the role of media in shaping economic narratives and the lessons India can learn from China’s measured rise. Kathuria emphasizes India’s intrinsic entrepreneurial talent, frugal innovation, and the need to engage in global trade frameworks like CPTPP and RCEP. Tune in for insights on how India can leverage its strengths to become a leading global economic power.

(00:00) Introduction

(01:15) The Politics Behind India–US Trade Relations

(04:40) Why Agriculture Is Always a Sticking Point

(08:05) The Role of Tariffs and Market Access

(11:20) What India Can Offer the United States

(14:35) Mini Deals vs. Comprehensive Trade Agreements

(17:10) How Global Trust Has Broken Down Since the Pandemic

(20:25) India’s Strategy for Building Economic Resilience

(23:45) The Importance of Diversifying Energy and Trade Partners

(26:30) Media Narratives and Policy Misunderstandings

(29:10) Learning from China’s Measured Global Strategy

(31:45) Redefining India’s Red Lines in Trade Negotiations

(33:00) Why Rajat Kathuria Remains Optimistic About India’s Future

(34:56) Conclusion

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