This week, arguments begin in Donald Trump’s hush money trial in Manhattan, and he’s raging over the unfairness of it all. Amazingly, some are rushing to insist the trial won’t pose a serious problem for his presidential chances. But progressive political strategist Anat Shenker-Osorio disagrees: She writes in a new piece for Slate that due to some hidden public opinion dynamics, the case is already damaging him. So we chatted with Shenker-Osorio about why the trial and Trump’s impulsive conduct at it is so alienating to voters outside the MAGA bubble—and why this dynamic will only get worse.

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