Energy Realities

IEA hypocritical about-face, and market impacts


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You won’t want to miss the global team of podcasters covering the IEA walking back its stances on oil and the huge impacts on international markets. David Blackmon, Tammy Nemeth, Irina Slav, and Stu Turley from all parts of the globe dig into why the IEA has reversed course, the pressures behind its changing forecasts, and what it means for energy security, global markets, and investment strategies. With sharp analysis and candid debate, the panel highlights the growing tension between political aspirations and real-world energy demand and what it all means for the future of reliable power worldwide.


We had a critical part that I cut out, and we covered the Energy Bad Boys article “Rising Natural Gas Costs Make Wind and Solar more expensive.” Take a look at this one 5-minute section in which we cover the additional costs to the grid.



This was from the Energy Bad Boys Substack, and when you look at the new technologies for natural gas, the cost goes even lower.


Compared to the figures shown in “The Baseload Solar Beatdown,” the 50 percent solar plus battery storage levels are 15 percent higher, using higher capital cost and fuel prices for the natural gas backup generation. Additionally, we presented the cost of combined cycle natural gas at the highest capital cost and fuel price from above.


The graph below shows prices are higher in every other portfolio mix, as well, even though a higher use of solar will require less natural gas for load balancing than the 50 percent scenario.



Electricity costs from natural gas power plants are rising, as the rise in capital costs for new natural gas plants constitutes a 70 percent increase in the LCOE of these plants, and a potential rise in fuel costs could push these prices higher.


But wind and solar advocates should be careful what they wish for, as higher prices for natural gas power plants and fuel make their own preferred generation portfolios, which are reliant upon natural gas for reliability, more expensive.


Rising prices for power generated by gas turbines make these portfolios less competitive with existing coal and nuclear plants for the foreseeable future.


Thanks for reading Energy Bad Boys!


Highlights of the Podcast


00:01 - Introductions

01:58 - IEA’s “Hypocritical” About-Face

07:44 - Drivers Behind the IEA Shift

14:58 - Investment, Demand, and Market Impacts

23:31 - Energy Transition Challenges

36:04 - Environmental Trade-Offs & Security Risks

39:06 - Closing Thoughts on IEA

42:04 - Broader Geopolitics & Market Forces

46:35 - Pentagon Hails Restart Of Critical Minerals Mine In Idaho

47:21 - DAVID BLACKMON: Geoengineering Is Real, And It’s Spectacular

49:39 - Greenpeace USA unveils giant “bill” with the economic damages brought on by five major oil and gas companies at NYC Climate Week

51:41 - Could higher US power prices give solar an edge?

54:36 - California faces a self-created oil and gas crisis. Lawmakers should consider these next steps.

56:52 - Official Response to Canada and BC’s approval of Ksi Lisa’s LNG project through Haida Territorial Waters

59:19 - Wrap-Up

...more
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