Today we had two stellar guests for a COBT discussion focused on Germany’s significant upcoming election on February 23. We had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Dr. Lars Schernikau alongside Dr. Daniel Stelter. Lars is an energy economist, commodity trader, entrepreneur, and the author of “The Unpopular Truth about Electricity and the Future of Energy.” We have known Lars for a few years now and reached out to him for advice on an expert voice on the German elections, economy and overall macro outlook. He recommended Daniel and we were thrilled to get them both to join us. Daniel is an acclaimed macroeconomist and strategy consultant and his background includes 20 plus years as Senior Partner and Executive Committee Member at Boston Consulting Group. More recently, he founded the think tank “Beyond The Obvious.” We were delighted to visit with Lars and Daniel.
 
We covered a lot of territory in our conversation starting with asking Lars and Daniel for background on whether the upcoming election is likely to bring meaningful economic or policy reforms and probing its broader implications for Germany’s economic trajectory. They shared their unfortunately low expectations for significant change, pointing to Germany’s ongoing economic decline, which has been exacerbated by policy decisions during COVID, including heavy spending and regulatory shifts, and further strained by high energy prices, energy scarcity, and deindustrialization driven by the country’s aggressive transition to renewables and more recent closure of their nuclear plants. We explore Germany’s debt-to-GDP ratio as a strategic advantage, though constrained by debt brake laws, potential reforms to reallocate funds from subsidies and social programs toward more productive investments, hidden liabilities that significantly increase Germany’s actual debt burden, European debt dynamics, the Euro, and speculation on whether the U.S. will prioritize strengthening Germany’s economic resilience or focus on attracting German industries to America for lower energy costs. We touch on potential future scenarios, including the possibility for Germany to delay coal plant closures or access domestic gas reserves, the U.S.’s vested interest in supporting Germany and the EU to maintain geopolitical stability, and the increasing political polarization in Germany. We also discuss how China’s long-term strategic planning in EVs, batteries, and raw materials has outpaced European efforts, the strategic implications of sanctioning Russia, and much more. It was a candid look at the challenges and opportunities facing Germany and Europe and we can’t thank Lars and Daniel enough for sharing their time and thoughts with us.
 
Mike Bradley started us off by highlighting that broader equity markets seem to be focused solely on Trump-Trump-Trump policies, whether that be recent talks between Russia/U.S. on a Ukrainian peace deal or reciprocal tariff threats. He noted that there’s little in the way of market moving economic data this week which might allow broader equity markets to continue gravitating higher. Meta’s stock price has been up twenty consecutive trading days (an equity market record) and NVIDIA will be reporting quarterly results next week, which could create a lot of volatility and set the tone for the Technology sector in the coming weeks. On the crude oil front, he discussed rumors that OPEC might look to delay oil production increases (120kbpd) that were scheduled for April. The recent pullback in crude oil price also seems to be grounded in optimism for a breakthrough in the Ukrainian war. On the natural gas front, European natural gas price is trading at ~$15/MMBtu, down ~$2/MMBtu over the last few weeks, on optimism the EU will allow a more flexible gas storage refill this year. European gas storage levels are 44% full versus the 5-year average of 54% full, which provides a bit of a gas price floor heading into summer. He w

Today we were delighted to welcome the Honorable Lisa Raitt, Vice-Chair of Global Investment Banking at CIBC, for an insightful discussion focused on the implications of recent U.S.-Canada trade developments. Lisa joined CIBC Capital Markets in 2020 following an eleven-year tenure in the Government of Canada. Her distinguished career includes serving as Deputy Leader of the Official Opposition and the Conservative Party of Canada, as well as serving as Minister of Natural Resources, Minister of Labor, and Minister of Transport. We were thrilled to host Lisa and hear her valuable perspective on the evolving trade dynamics between the U.S. and Canada.
 
In our conversation, we explore the Canadian view on President Trump’s recent comments regarding tariffs and Canada’s auto manufacturing industry, along with the broader implications for U.S.-Canada trade relations. We discuss Canada’s political landscape, including Prime Minister Trudeau’s decision to step down after losing party support, the Conservative Party’s growing momentum under Pierre Poilievre, and Canada’s economic challenges and growth concerns. We touch on the unifying effect trade tensions have had on Canadian political and business communities, the potential for retaliatory measures, the need for more power generation, transmission, and distribution to support Canada’s economic growth, and intra-Canada trade complications that impact Canada’s competitiveness. Lisa provides insight into the impact of the Canadian dollar and interest rates, how currency fluctuations affect key sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, and sports, the deep economic and familial ties between the U.S. and Canada, whether ongoing trade disputes could fundamentally alter the relationship between the two countries, and more. We are very thankful to Lisa for sharing her time and perspective.
 
Mike Bradley started off the show by highlighting that President Trump’s new tariffs and tariff threats are increasing volatility, but that for the most part, bond and equity markets have been moving sideways. He noted January CPI & PPI will be reported over the next two days which could create added market volatility for bonds and equities. If both inflation reports print cooler-than expected, it will likely lead to intensifying pressure from Trump for the FED to cut interest rates at the March FOMC Meeting. On the crude oil market front, WTI price has rallied this week to ~$73/bbl and crude oil time spreads are pointing to a physically tight oil market. Oil price continues to be impacted by on/off tariff threats and continued OPEC production curtailments but was aided this week on news that Russian oil exports are being impacted by tighter Russian oil sanctions. On the natural gas front, U.S. natural gas prompt price has rebounded to ~$3.50/MMBtu on colder weather and the 12-month natural gas strip is now trading above $4.00/MMBtu. BP indicated on their Q4 call that at current U.S natural gas prices, they were contemplating picking up gas rigs “now” which is a new development. He also noted that European natural gas price was trading at ~$17/MMBtu (~$100/bbl oil equivalent) because European gas storage is draining faster than expected due to colder winter weather and poor renewable performance/utilization. He ended by flagging Equinor’s recent strategy shift (significant reduction in renewables capex thru 2030) and also noted that BP is calling for a “fundamental reset” of their strategy at their Capital Markets Day (Feb 26th). Robert Kester added his thoughts on AI’s dominance in global discourse, highlighting this week’s high-profile AI Summit in Paris and different global approaches to AI, including the U.S.’s free-market stance, Europe’s push for regulation, and China’s state-backed AI expansion.
 
We hope you all enjoy the discussion with Lisa as much as we did. Our best to you all – and to our friends up north, let’s work this out, eh!

It’s a big week in Houston with NAPE in town, and we were thrilled to welcome our good friend David Bat, President of Kimberlite Research, for an in-depth discussion of the latest OFS activity, trends, and technologies. David joined Kimberlite in 2015 and holds over 30 years of experience spanning upstream, power, and oilfield research. Kimberlite is a global oil and gas market research and consulting firm that gathers insights from more than 20,000 hours of annual interviews with industry professionals to analyze market trends and benchmark performance for oilfield equipment and service providers. We were excited to hear David’s perspectives on the evolving OFS landscape.

In our conversation, David provides background on Kimberlite’s unique approach to gathering high-quality data from E&P operators and oilfield service users worldwide. He explains how their methodology offers deeper insights into technology adoption, service quality, and operational performance and walks us through key slides from a presentation (full version linked here). We explore recent technological advancements including rotary steerable systems improving drilling efficiency, self-oriented perforating guns enhancing completion effectiveness, and advancements in electric submersible pumps. We discuss how digitalization, software applications, and AI-driven analytics are reshaping oilfield operations as well as trends in frac technology, oilfield electrification, and shifts in fuel choices. David shares factors driving operator recommendations and highlights the contrast between North American and international markets, the potential for unconventional growth in Argentina, Australia, and the Middle East, the resurgence of offshore developments, and the challenges that prevent certain innovations from gaining widespread traction. We explore broader key industry themes, including consolidation trends in oilfield services, how company culture influences service provider success, the growing role of mobile power solutions across both oil and gas and non-energy sectors, and AI’s role in data aggregation, market intelligence, and operational decision-making. We end by asking David for his vision of the oil and gas services industry in the next decade. This is where he makes a great comment about "differentiation and an improving competitive moat" around the best companies. It was a wide-ranging and thought-provoking discussion and we’re very grateful to David for sharing his expertise with us.

It was our privilege today to welcome Philippe Ducom, President of ExxonMobil Europe, for a discussion centered on Europe’s challenges regarding energy policy and overall economic competitiveness. Philippe has been with ExxonMobil for 37 years and began his career as an engineer at the Notre-Dame de Gravenchon Chemical plant in Seine-Maritime. Over the years, he has held a variety of senior positions across manufacturing, business analytics, planning, sales, and marketing, working in Europe, Japan, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. Before being appointed as President of ExxonMobil Europe in 2018, Philippe served as Chairman, CEO, and President of ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia and previously led ExxonMobil Japan as Lead Country Manager. We noticed Philippe’s post, “Red tape is driving investment out of Europe – and threatening the energy transition” (linked here), in October of last year and have been eager to discuss. We were thrilled to host Philippe and learn from his unique perspectives and outlook for Europe.

In our conversation, Philippe provides background on the European Parliament and Commission’s five-year cycle, and why the time to discuss these matters is now with a new 5-year legislative cycle just beginning. We discuss the challenges facing Europe including low growth, declining purchasing power, and lack of industrial competitiveness, as well as recommendations to reduce the regulatory burden. Philippe highlights how the previous Commission’s challenges have included managing COVID-19, helping the Ukrainians, pursuing energy security and trying to attain society's climate goals, all of which has bloated government balance sheets. Philippe shares his perspective on the complexity and inefficiency of Europe’s regulatory and permitting process, his recommendations for immediate actions that would require no cost but yield significant improvements, challenges of operating or opening new industrial facilities in Europe and he provides an update on the European chemicals and refining sectors. We examine the structure of the EU, cultural differences in the reliance on markets in the U.S. versus Europe, the importance of free markets and risk-taking to drive innovation and competitiveness, and ExxonMobil’s increased engagement with public policy and public discussions overall. We cover country-specific energy mix decisions among EU member states, how recent geopolitical events have exposed the importance of energy policy and gas infrastructure, Europe’s approach to energy regulation, the growing role of natural gas and nuclear energy in Europe’s energy mix, and the shifting dynamics of gas supply and infrastructure post-Ukraine invasion. We also explore the impact of Europe’s carbon border adjustment mechanism and the notion of extraterritorial regulations, how the U.S. IRA could offer valuable lessons for Europe, and much more. We ended by asking Philippe for his vision for Europe’s energy landscape in the next decade comparing two scenarios, one where Europe continues on its current regulatory path versus one where pragmatic policies are put in place. It was a wide-ranging and insightful discussion.

Today we had the honor of hosting Chairman Thomas Gleeson of the Public Utility Commission of Texas for an insightful and timely discussion focused on power, the dynamics involved, and the power revolution happening in Texas and globally. Chairman Gleeson was appointed by Governor Abbott to his role in January of 2024. He brings 15-years of experience at the PUCT, where he previously served as Executive Director, Chief Operating Officer, Director of Finance and Administration, and Fiscal Project Manager. Prior to joining the PUCT, Chairman Gleeson worked as a legislative analyst for the Texas Senate and as a budget analyst for the Legislative Budget Board. He earned a Master of Public Administration from Texas A&M University. The PUCT is responsible for economic regulation of Texas’s electric, telecommunication, water and wastewater utilities. We were thrilled to visit with the Chairman.
 
Chairman Gleeson first outlines his objectives upon becoming Chairman, focusing on stabilizing the post-Winter Storm Uri environment, engaging stakeholders, as well as the differences in responsibilities compared to his predecessor, Peter Lake, who managed the immediate crisis after Winter Storm Uri. We discuss the enhanced relationship and collaboration between the PUCT and ERCOT, structural changes to the PUCT to increase the number of commissioners from three to five to improve decision-making and communication during emergencies, improvements in grid performance and reliability during recent cold weather events (including this week’s arctic blast!), and the challenge of meeting Texas’s rapid energy demand growth with infrastructure investments and a diversified energy mix. We discuss efforts to streamline regulatory processes for businesses that are considering relocating to Texas, balancing market growth with policy goals, the state’s focus on energy expansion over transition, and addressing rising demand with all resource types while balancing reliability and costs. We explore collaboration with large companies to build additional generation capacity and support the grid, Texas’s regulatory agility, differences between Texas’s market and capacity markets in other regions, the need for exemptions or adjustments in federal emission standards during emergency grid situations to support grid reliability, and the economics of building new gas-fired power plants. Chairman Gleeson shares insights on the role of large hyperscalers as contributors to infrastructure development rather than just large energy consumers, distributed generation models and how co-locating with grid-connected resources and building additional capacity is the “sweet spot” for collaboration between private entities and the grid, the potential for additional nuclear power in Texas, leveraging Texas’s budget surplus to foster energy innovation and reliability through public-private partnerships, the evolving role of ERCOT in integrating distributed energy resources, and much more. We want to thank Commissioner Gleeson for sharing his time and perspectives with us on a busy day. We look forward to staying in touch.
 
Mike Bradley was in Panama for this week’s COBT and opened the conversation by relaying that Panamanians seem generally surprised and concerned with Trump’s continued rhetoric around control of the Panama Canal. From an overall markets standpoint, he noted that investors are really focused on Trump getting his Cabinet installed quickly, and more importantly, what Trump’s flurry of Executive Orders means for policy and markets. From a crude oil market standpoint, WTI was down ~$1.50/bbl this week due to Executive Orders to unleash American Energy (lower energy prices?) but mostly due to a rally in the U.S. dollar which is impacting multiple commodities. On the broader equity market front, the DJIA was up 400-500 points as investors seem temporarily relieved that aggressive tariff policies weren’t enacted in Trump’s initial Executive

Many of you have likely noticed the growing interest in Greenland making headlines recently, including the U.S.’s overt interest in potentially “acquiring” the country. As we’ve followed these developments, we have been intrigued to explore further and were fortunate to connect with Dr. Mark Nuttall, Professor and Henry Marshall Tory Chair of Anthropology at the University of Alberta and Adjunct Professor at the Greenland Climate Research Centre. Mark joined the University of Alberta faculty in 2003 and became affiliated with the University of Greenland and the Greenland Climate Research Centre in 2012. He holds a Ph.D. in Arctic Anthropology and his research focuses on the societies and environments of the circumpolar North and Northern Europe. Mark is also the author of several books, including his most recent, “The Shaping of Greenland’s Resource Spaces: Environment, Territory, Geo-Security.” We were delighted to host Mark for an insightful discussion on Greenland’s global significance.
 
We covered a wide range of topics in our conversation, beginning with Mark’s personal interest and extensive history studying Greenland and the Arctic and Subarctic regions. We discuss the historical context of Greenland’s status and its complex relationship with Denmark, including economic policies, relocation programs, and cultural assimilation efforts that have contributed to Greenlandic attitudes toward Denmark. We explore Greenland’s strategic importance in U.S. and global security strategies dating back to World War II and the Cold War, concerns about how Greenlandic independence could increase foreign influence, particularly from Western adversaries, and Greenland’s economic considerations and resource development. Mark shares insights into Greenland’s regulatory framework and ownership of its subsurface resources, the potential for developing these resources, Greenlanders’ right to self-determination and their cultural and political aspirations for independence, the U.S.’s longstanding interest in Greenland, and its significance in Arctic shipping lanes. We cover challenges for Greenland’s economic independence, including its financial reliance on the Danish block grant, which accounts for 60% of Greenland’s public budget and 20% of its GDP, implications for Denmark if Greenland achieves independence, and concerns about the social and environmental impacts of large-scale resource extraction on small communities. We also explore whether independence might lead to shifts in policies for oil and gas exploration to support Greenland’s economy, the challenges of balancing tourism growth with infrastructure constraints, the unique system of land and resource ownership in Greenland, and more. We greatly appreciate Mark for sharing his deep expertise and perspectives. It was a fantastic discussion.

Mike Bradley opened the conversation by noting that markets are mostly focused on two near-term events: U.S. economic reports this week and Trump’s Executive Orders in the coming weeks. On the bond market front, December PPI printed lower than expected on Tuesday and surprisingly pushed the 10-year bond yield higher (~4.8%) which is the highest 10-year yield since Trump was elected. Investors appear much more focused on Wednesday’s December CPI report which could result in added market volatility. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 is down ~2% over the last week and has almost completely roundtripped since Trump was elected. Over the last week, Energy was the best performing S&P sector (+4%) with Technology the worst performing (-5%). On the crude oil market front, WTI price has rallied another $4/bbl (~$78/bbl) this week due to stiffer Russian oil sanctions from the Biden Administration which could ultimately reduce Russian oil exports by 0.5-1.0mmbpd. He noted that these unexpected Russian oil sanctions plus the potential for Iranian oil sanctions under Trump could result in global oil markets going fr

This week we were on the road in Oklahoma City and had the exciting opportunity to sit down with Dr. Ann Bluntzer Pullin, Executive Director of the Hamm Institute for American Energy at Oklahoma State University. Ann was appointed to Executive Director in August and has over 25 years of experience in higher education as a professor and administrator, most recently serving as Executive Director of the Ralph Lowe Energy Institute at TCU’s Neeley School of Business where she served in several leadership capacities for a tenure of eleven years. Ann started her career as a Foreign Service Officer in Education and Agriculture and served in Poland, Lithuania, Indonesia, and Australia. Established in 2021, the Hamm Institute is at the forefront of energy geopolitics and international energy security initiatives, in addition to driving technological and policy innovations through research to address domestic and global energy challenges. It was our pleasure to visit with Ann on-site at the Hamm Institute to discuss their latest updates and observations on today’s energy world.
 
In our discussion with Ann, we explore the critical intersection of energy security and national security, the Hamm Institute’s mission to foster informed dialogue around energy and economic growth, and the importance of partnerships with responsible energy producers to improve global security and sustainability. Ann shares insights from a recent trip to Taiwan, Korea, and Japan with Governor Stitt of Oklahoma, highlighting discussions with energy ministries, economists, and industry representatives about the energy security challenges faced by these countries, as well as the global trend to prioritize national interests and how a strong and self-reliant America can serve as an example for other nations. We touch on the role of the U.S. in exporting natural resources and fostering energy security, the challenge of balancing short-term geopolitical stability with long-term innovation and sustainability, the Hamm Institute’s efforts alongside OSU to shape global energy discussions and support developing nations’ energy needs, the potential for Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s DOGE initiative to disrupt conventional thinking, the positive opportunity for media to bring awareness to government issues and necessary reforms, and much more. We greatly enjoyed the discussion and appreciate the important contributions Ann and the Hamm Institute team are making around energy, particularly with issues around national security and energy security and how they are completely intertwined.
 
Thanks to Ann for joining and thanks to you all for your friendship and support!

Today we are thrilled to kick off the first COBT episode of 2025 with our good friend Rob West, Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy. Rob started Thunder Said in 2019 and provides unique, thought-provoking, and economic-driven insights into energy transition research and technologies. He is a long-time energy analyst and previously built and led the energy practice at Redburn and served at Sanford C. Bernstein and Partners Capital before launching Thunder Said. This episode marks Rob’s fifth appearance on COBT; he most recently joined in January 2024 (episode linked here). We were delighted to connect with Rob to reflect on 2024 and explore what the future might hold for energy in 2025. Rob has now kicked us off in 2022, 2024 and 2025. This may be becoming a tradition!

We covered a lot of territory in our conversation starting with Rob’s musings on trying to define what energy transition actually means, how the world’s current focus on avoiding catastrophe needs to be replaced with more aspirational visions of human progress, the role of policy, subsidies, and competitiveness, the need for energy abundance to support human development, and the risks of pursuing costly and ineffective strategies that fail to achieve their objectives. Rob shares his perspective on how energy affordability and economic competitiveness influence voter behavior and government policy shifts, how shifting geopolitical dynamics are shaping global energy strategies, the potential for AI to enable breakthroughs on everything from materials value chains to DAC, the geopolitical situation in Estonia, and the broader implications of Russian aggression. At one point Rob observes “the West is already at war, it just doesn’t admit it because of the implications.” We discuss the importance of assigning real weight to geopolitical risks in energy forecasts and market strategies, Rob’s “F-U” Recession Scenario where countries retreat from global trade and cooperation leading to disruptions in energy and other value chains, and Texas’s continued role as a hub for energy innovation and growth. We ended by exploring the global bottleneck in moving energy from where it’s created to where it’s needed, growth opportunities in utilities and midstream, the increasing volatility in energy systems, the concept of the “third great energy transition” with semiconductor technologies, and much more. As mentioned, Rob’s “Energy Transition: Classic Blunders” video from December 2024 is linked here. We can’t thank Rob enough for sharing his time and thoughts with us today to kick off the year in style.

Mike Bradley kicked us off by discussing the performance of bonds, commodities and equities since our last COBT on December 17th with Dr. Steven Koonin (episode linked here). He noted that the 10-year bond is currently yielding ~4.65% (up from ~4.4%) which is a Trump post-election high and a one-year high. The FED cut interest rates 25-basis points at their last FOMC Meeting, and bond trader consensus is now in the camp that there’ll only be two additional interest rate cuts in 2025. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 has taken a bit of a breather (down ~1%) with the Energy (+2%) and Technology (+1%) sectors outperforming. On the crude oil market front, WTI oil price has rallied ~$4/bbl (to ~$74/bbl) and has pushed above its recent narrow trading range of $68-$71/bbl. Crude oil trader sentiment heading into 2025 continues to be mostly bearish, even though WTI time spreads having recently spiked, which could be signaling a tighter physical oil market. He further noted that Saudi seems to be getting more constructive on crude oil given that it raised its official selling price to Asia for the first time in three months. Global oil prices also seem

Today we were thrilled to visit with Dr. Steven Koonin, Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, for the final COBT episode of 2024. Dr. Koonin joined the Hoover Institution this year following 12 years at NYU, serving as a professor in the Schools of Business, Engineering, and Physics. Before his tenure at NYU, Dr. Koonin served as the Under Secretary for Science at the U.S. Department of Energy in the Obama Administration. Our discussion was particularly timely as Dr. Koonin recently authored an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal entitled “The Right Way for Trump to Ditch the Paris Agreement” (linked here).

Dr. Koonin is also the author of “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, And Why It Matters.” Today marks Dr. Koonin’s third appearance on COBT (previous episodes include April 20, 2022 linked here and May 17, 2021 linked here). It was fantastic to hear Dr. Koonin’s perspective on energy, climate, and the future as we close out 2024 and look ahead to 2025. As you will hear, he has lots of great thoughts about a broad range of things!
 
In our conversation, we explore the need for a global course correction in energy and climate policy, the opportunities and challenges of having more business-minded individuals in government, the disconnect between the scientific community and public policy, and the importance of transparency and effective communication by government leaders to explain energy and climate policy issues more clearly to the public. We discuss key points from Dr. Koonin’s Op-Ed, including his proposed actions for the Trump Administration if they were to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, the implications of Europe’s energy strategies and their lasting consequences, and Dr. Koonin’s suggestions to restructure the Loan Programs Office to prioritize research and development of scalable, economically viable technologies. Dr. Koonin shares his observations on fusion energy as a potentially transformative energy source and the opportunities and challenges involved, talks about intriguing advances in energy storage, and touches on other technological innovations including underground coal gasification with carbon sequestration. We also cover the US’s role in setting an example for energy policy and improving global energy access, Dr. Koonin’s outlook for 2025, and more. It was a wide-ranging and insightful discussion. Thank you Dr. Koonin for joining!
 
Mike Bradley kicked off the show by highlighting the performance of a handful of commodity and equity prices since Dr. Koonin last appeared on COBT (4/19/22). The 10-year bond yield (~4.4%) surged last week, sending it back to previous Trump post-election highs. It’s consensus that the FED will cut interest rates by a quarter point at Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision meeting, but what’s not consensus and what bonds are trying to handicap, is the path forward for interest rates in 2025. On the broader equity market front, markets took a bit of a breather last week and are mixed/modestly lower this week given that investors are laser-focused on the FOMC Meeting, especially Chairman Powell’s Post Conference dialogue on future interest rate policy. On the crude oil market front, WTI rallied ~$4/bbl (to ~$71/bbl) last week but continues to trade in a very tight trading band (~$68-$71/bbl) given that fundamentals still seem to point to a 2025 global supply surplus. On the gas market front, although the news came out after our COBT recording, the DOE’s long-waited “Updated Final Analyses on LNG Exports” was released. The analysis stopp

Today we had a unique and fascinating opportunity to visit with Miguel Galuccio, Chairman and CEO of Vista Energy, at Vista’s offices in Neuquén, Argentina. Miguel is a highly accomplished energy entrepreneur and serves as an Independent Board Member at SLB and GridX in addition to his role at Vista. Prior to founding Vista, Miguel served as the Chairman and CEO of YPF from 2012 to 2016, in addition to several international positions at SLB, most recently serving as President of SLB Production Management. We were thrilled to hear Miguel’s valuable insights into Argentina’s energy potential and specifically into the growth we are seeing in the Vaca Muerta.
 
In our conversation, we explore Vista’s rapid growth and their technological and operational advancements, the benefits of Argentina’s bipartisan political support for energy development, and the transformative economic impact of Vaca Muerta in shifting the country’s energy trade balance from deficit to surplus. We discuss the critical role of free-market mechanisms in scaling production, leveraging lessons from U.S. shale, Vaca Muerta’s potential as a cornerstone of Argentina’s energy future, opportunities for collaboration between the US and Argentina in energy and economic development, and insights from Miguel’s experience at YPF, notably the importance of efficiency, innovation, and team integration. Miguel shares background on the “One Team” model integrating Vista, SLB and Nabors teams to optimize operations and performance, key infrastructure developments including the development of the Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline, Vista’s broader mission to serve Argentina and enhance lives, and strategies for reducing operational costs in Vaca Muerta without the scale of US shale operations. We also cover Vista’s disciplined financial management, the company’s commitment to being a long-term player, Vista’s intriguing and exciting nature-based solutions business (website linked here), the importance of industry collaboration in driving future growth and innovation, and much more.

For additional reading on Argentina, The Economist’s article entitled “Javier Milei: “My contempt for the state is infinite” is linked here.
 
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that the 10-year bond yield (4.2%) is at its lowest level since Trump was elected. Both the CPI & PPI reports will be released this week and will go a long way in determining what the FED does next week at its FOMC Rate Decision Meeting. On the broader equity market front, markets continue gravitating to new all-time highs but caution could be warranted due to current and unforeseen global political turmoil. The month of December is typically a good month for the S&P 500 with average monthly performance of ~1.5-2.0% over the past five years. On the crude oil market front, WTI continues to trade in a very tight trading band (~$68-$71/bbl) even with news of additional Mideast turmoil (Assad’s fall in Syria) and rumors that China might pursue looser monetary policy in 2025. OPEC delayed their current production curtailments by another three months which was totally expected. He also noted that even with these OPEC curtailments in Q1, global oil supply will remain in surplus and oil prices are likely going to be capped unless Trump moves to sanction Iranian oil exports early in his Presidency. On the energy equity front, Energy was among the worst performing S&P sectors last week (down ~5%) as investors were putting the OPEC meeting in the rearview mirror and focusing on the continued global oil supply surplus. Investor sentiment currently favors natural gas over crude oil equities and that sentiment likely continues into early 2025. Chevron Corp. lowered their 2025 capex budget last week and this week ExxonMobil will be hosting their Annua