It was our privilege today to welcome the Honorable Jason Kenney, former Premier of Alberta, for a timely and insightful discussion on Canada’s upcoming federal election (April 28). Jason holds 25 years of public service at both the federal and provincial level with wide-ranging policy and leadership experience. He served as the 18th Premier of Alberta from 2019 to 2022 and now serves as a Senior Advisor at Bennett Jones, in addition to holding several board positions. Prior to his time as Premier, Jason held several key federal cabinet roles, including Minister for Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism, Minister of Employment and Social Development, Minister of National Defense, and Chair of the Cabinet Operations Committee. He was first elected a Member of Parliament in 1997 and was re-elected six times. We were thrilled to host Jason and learn from his unique perspectives on what the election means for energy, trade, and the U.S.-Canada relationship.
 
In our conversation, Jason walked us through Canada’s evolving political landscape and the two leading candidates: Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party and Mark Carney of the Liberal Party. He highlights key issues shaping the election including Trudeau’s long tenure and declining popularity, Canada’s weak per capita GDP growth, an overwhelmed immigration system, a doubling of housing costs, and issues of rising addiction and crime. Jason explains how Poilievre maintained a commanding 18-month lead in the polls until Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric reignited deep-rooted anxieties about Canadian sovereignty, prompting Trudeau’s exit and opening the door for Carney to reframe the election around “Who can stand up to Trump?” while Poilievre continues to focus on affordability and change. We explore the role of minor parties in Canada’s Parliamentary system, the unprecedented focus on energy and climate in Sunday’s federal debate, expected policy outcomes depending on who wins, and the looming 2026 USMCA renegotiation. Jason shares his perspective on Canada’s opportunity to grow LNG exports, the barriers posed by the Liberal government’s zero-gas electricity rule and industrial carbon tax, and the potential for Alberta to become a hub for large-scale, gas-powered data centers given its cold climate and abundant stranded gas. We discuss Canadian electricity exports to the U.S., broader infrastructure challenges tied to electrification and economic growth, Canada’s continued reliance on U.S. exports, and the growing sense that Canada’s “holiday from history” is over. We also reflect on the emotional, historic and familial ties between the U.S. and Canada, the hope for reconciliation and renewed cooperation, and much more. It was a fascinating discussion. If you’re interested in watching the energy and climate portion of Sunday night’s Canadian Federal Leaders’ debate, the 18-minute segment is linked here.
 
Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by highlighting President Trump’s recent pressure on Fed Chairman Powell to immediately lower interest rates or risk getting fired. While global fear and uncertainty remains high, Mike noted that that it can and probably will be mitigated when Trump signs some high-profile tariff deals. In broader equity markets, the S&P Volatility Index remains pretty elevated, which was evident by the DJIA plunging by ~1,000 points on Monday and surging over 1,000 points on Tuesday! Investors are closely watching Tesla’s Q1 earnings, with one analyst calling it a “Code Red” Moment, which could have broader market implications. He shared several bond, currency and equity market stats for Canada. From an energy equity reporting standpoint, Liberty Energy and Halliburton reported Q1 results, with both companies noting that E&Ps haven’t decided to cut 2025 activity levels yet but are looking at a range of macroeconomic scenarios in anticipation of oil price

Today we had the pleasure of hosting David Hambling for a sweeping discussion on drone technologies and their applications. David is a journalist, author, and defense technology expert with over 20 years of experience. He writes for Aviation Week, Forbes, The Economist, New Scientist, Popular Mechanics, WIRED, and more (for an archive of David’s writings, click here). David is the author of “Swarm Troopers” and has researched the history of drones and in particular, has zeroed in on the potential impact of smaller drones in both military and consumer applications. We were thrilled to visit with David.
 
In our conversation, David shares his background in military technology and how his previous book, “Weapons Grade,” led him to explore the rise of drones. We discuss how the military lost its tech lead due to rapid commercial innovations, particularly as mobile phone technologies enabled the development of small, cheap, and highly capable drones. David explains the evolution of drone use, from reconnaissance tools to precision combat systems, and how this transformation has played out dramatically in the Russia-Ukraine war, where nearly two-thirds of Russian fatalities on Ukrainian soil are reportedly caused by small drones. We explore the shift from human-operated drones to autonomous systems, the difficulty of defending against small, agile drones, and the growing threat that they pose to critical energy and transportation infrastructure. David shares background on the historical cultural bias within militaries that sidelined drones in favor of piloted aircraft, until the CIA’s early adoption of drone strikes eventually forced the Air Force to adopt them, as well as the recent surprising Trump Administration decision to continue the Boeing F-47 contract. We cover the regulatory challenges facing drone adoption, particularly the limitations on beyond visual line of sight operations, public concerns around safety and privacy, and global developments including Dubai’s plans to pilot flying taxi drones by 2027. David outlines China’s dominance in the global drone market, applications of drones including infrastructure inspection, delivery services, reforestation, and the unique Ukrainian “Victory Drone” program that encourages civilians to help war efforts by building drones at home for frontline use. We also touch on China’s demographic challenges and how its shrinking and aging population is fueling the nation’s strategic investment in AI, robotics, and autonomy, the critical role of software in making humanoid robots useful, especially with using assistive tech for elderly care, and more. We end with David’s thoughts on what the drone and robotics landscape might look like in ten years. It was a fascinating and wide-ranging discussion that raised both the opportunities and the ethical complexities involved.
 
Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that from a broader equity market standpoint, “Trumpatility” remains alive. Despite S&P volatility being cut in half over the last five trading days, it’s still higher than average and will likely stay elevated until we begin to see tariff deals signed. Equity markets feel much worse than reality, given that the S&P 500 is only down ~7% year to date. On the International equity front, Argentina received a $20 billion IMF package last Friday, which could be an extremely important development for the country’s long-term growth. On Monday, Argentina allowed its currency to freely float (between 1,000-1,400 pesos per dollar) for the first time in a very long time. In response, Argentinian 10yr bond yields plunged this week by ~150 basis points, and the Argentina equity market (Merval) and major Argentinian Energy equities have both rallied on the IMF deal. From an oil market standpoint, WTI looks to have temporarily stabilized in the low-$60s per barrel range. This week, the IEA slashed both its 2025 &am

We are excited to share this Special Edition COBT featuring Matt Loszak, CEO, and Jon Guidroz, Senior Vice President of Commercial and Strategy, from Aalo Atomics. Founded in 2022, Aalo is a pioneering nuclear energy company working to revolutionize the industry by manufacturing entire nuclear plants using prefabricated, factory-built components. Matt comes from a background in software startups, and his interest in nuclear began during his childhood in Toronto. Jon joined the company in September and is a seasoned leader in technology and sustainability, having previously held senior roles at Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud. Last Monday, we had the opportunity to attend Aalo’s Factory Unveiling in Austin and see the technology up close. Mike Bradley, Brett Rampal and I were thrilled to host Matt and Jon.
 
In our conversation, we explore the renewed interest in nuclear energy, driven by the growing need for reliable low impact low cost power. We discuss Aalo’s impressive growth (expanding from a small team of 5-10 to 45 people in under a year with plans to scale to 85-90 employees in the next 12 months), the company’s Factory Unveiling event showcasing their Aalo Pod, designed to power AI data centers, and their ambitious goal to deliver power at under 3 cents per kWh. Matt shares insights into Aalo’s focus to cross the “first-of-a-kind” barrier to “nth-of-a-kind” and what makes their “XMR” (Extra-Modular Reactor) design unique. We touch on the company’s culture, focused on urgency and achieving lofty goals, their success in drawing talent from organizations like SpaceX, Tesla, and the oil and gas industry, and the company’s plans to begin construction of a reactor at Idaho National Labs in 12 months. We cover the advantages and challenges of their sodium reactor design, the company’s successful Series A fundraise and goals for Series B, and collaboration opportunities with oil and gas. It was a fantastic discussion and we appreciate Matt and Jon for taking the time from their busy schedule to visit.
 
We look forward to following Aalo’s progress and hope you enjoy the discussion as much as we did. Our best to you all!

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Kostas Bakoyannis, Chair of the Committee on the Environment, Climate Change and Energy at the European Committee of the Regions. Kostas has served as a member of the Committee since 2020 and previously held elected roles as Mayor of Athens, Governor of Central Greece, and Mayor of Karpenisi. He brings nearly two decades of public service experience including roles at the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the European Parliament in Brussels, and the World Bank in Kosovo. We were thrilled to connect with Kostas for an insightful discussion on Europe’s energy future, the pressures facing European industry, and how the EU is navigating today’s complex geopolitical landscape.
 
In our conversation, Kostas shares his perspective on Europe’s environmental and energy policies and the challenge of balancing energy security with energy transition amidst rising geopolitical tensions. We discuss the impact of tariffs and trade relations, Europe’s internal challenges regarding energy affordability, regulatory complexity, and bureaucracy, and Greece’s more balanced and pragmatic energy policies. We explore the importance of interconnection and regional energy cooperation within Europe, as well as the broader geopolitical and economic implications of efforts to connect energy systems with Cyprus and Israel. Kostas offers insights into how average Greek and EU citizens experience energy and financial pressures, the limitations of EU communication, and the importance of preserving the U.S.-European alliance built after WWII. We examine how different EU countries are pursuing diverse energy mixes and the need for technological neutrality in policymaking. We touch on Europe’s evolving strategy on industrial policy and tariffs, the urgency of presenting a united Western front in dealing with China, calls for increased European defense spending, and the seriousness of concurrent economic, national security, and ideological tensions. Kostas highlights Greece’s economic transformation, the investment climate, lessons from local governance, the need for more flexible, innovation-friendly regulation within the EU, and more. It was a broad-based discussion and we’re thankful to Kostas for sharing his time and unique insights.
 
Mike Bradley opened by discussing that “Trumpatility” is alive and global fear is high! He noted that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are dominating global markets and that broader equity markets could still have additional downside. However, the time for panic was weeks ago when equity market volatility was low, not today, when fear is extremely high. On the broader equity market front, Trump’s reciprocal tariffs haven’t just affected U.S. equities (S&P 500 down 12% over last 5 trading days) but also global equity markets (down 8-12%) over the same timeframe. Investor fear is historically high with the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) trading at ~55 today and as high as 60 on Monday (3rd highest VIX level of the last 30 years). The S&P 500 opened strongly on Tuesday (up 3.5%) before ending the day down just under 2.0%, which looks to be signaling that investors are “selling the bounce” rather than “buying the dip.” Investors seem inclined to “buy the dip” around the S&P’s 200-day moving average of 4,675 (6-7% lower). On bonds, he pointed out that the 10yr bond yield trades at ~4.25%, which is a higher yield than it traded on Liberation Day, as traders sense the Fed could be conflicted between tariff induced price inflation and a tariff induced U.S. recession. March CPI & PPI reports due this week could influence Fed decisions, with a cooler-than-expected inflation reading possibly paving the way for interest rate cuts as early as the May 7th FOMC Meeting. In the oil market, WTI price has plunged ~$14/bbl (to $58/bbl) over the last five trading days and is now trading at Mar ’21 price levels. The recent plunge in oil price was due not only to Trump

Today we were delighted to welcome Michael Kao, Private Investor at Kao Family Office and CEO & Portfolio Manager of Akanthos Capital Management. Michael founded Akanthos in 2002 and transitioned to focus on his family office in 2019. Michael is also the author of "Kaoboy Musings” on Substack (linked here). Previously, he was a Portfolio Manager at Canyon Capital Advisors, where he co-founded the Canyon Arbitrage Fund. Michael started his career in the commodities unit at J.Aron/Goldman Sachs and has over 30 years of experience across commodities, credit, convertible arbitrage, and distressed investing.

As we approach what President Trump has coined “Liberation Day” on April 2nd, we were eager to find someone who could help us all better understand the rationale behind these developments and their implications. In recent Substack posts, Michael has shared some of his interesting theories and makes a case that what appears chaotic and unpredictable might actually be part of an audacious but coordinated plan. We were thrilled to hear Michael’s latest insights on market volatility, energy dynamics, the evolving investment landscape, and why April 2nd might just be another stop on the way to (hopefully) something better.

In our conversation, we first ask Michael for his view on the complexities surrounding the Trump Administration’s actions and how to interpret the end goals of their policies. He shares an analogy comparing the current U.S. economic environment to navigating an asteroid field (like Han Solo’s decision to fly the Millennium Falcon directly into an asteroid field when being chased by the Empire in Star Wars), highlighting several key economic challenges to manage including the current 7% non-wartime deficit, short-term debt reliance, geopolitical tensions, and the need for broader economic recalibration. We explore various ways to manage the U.S. debt including the possibility of terming out debt and reshoring manufacturing, the impact of oil prices on the broader economy, the weakening U.S. dollar, and how the Trump Administration’s shift from a “carrot” to “stick” approach in policy negotiations may affect market dynamics. We discuss potential scenarios for a U.S. recession or economic slowdown, the growth of the private equity market, the increasing role of private credit in financing private equity-backed companies, and the role of the Federal Reserve in the broader economic picture. Michael provides insights on how sovereign wealth funds could help manage the U.S. national balance sheet by leveraging geographic assets, his experience in transitioning to managing his family office and focusing more on uncorrelated private investments, the potential for a black swan event, the risk of ongoing geopolitical tensions escalating, the importance of thinking outside the box, and much more. We greatly appreciate Michael joining and sharing his expertise and insights with us all.

As you’ll hear, we discuss some of Michael’s recent posts. His piece entitled “Mental Models – Navigating The Asteroid Field With Trump 2.0” is linked here and the Kaos Theory podcast episode featuring Michael Every is linked here.
 
Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that markets are in a “Calm Before the Storm” mode with investors awaiting the impact of Trump’s April 2nd reciprocal tariffs. Rather than focusing on how markets might react post-reciprocal tariffs, Mike reviewed how markets performed in Q1’25 with the “Trumpatility” overhang. In bonds, the 10yr fell in Q1 by ~35bps to ~4.20%. WTI price ($71.50/bbl) ended Q1 relatively unchanged, which was a big surprise given the bearish oil sentiment that had built throu

Today we had the very exciting opportunity to take COBT “On The Road” to the Colorado School of Mines (CSM) in Golden, CO, where we recorded a special live audience show featuring Dr. Paul Johnson, President of CSM, and Jeff Miller, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Halliburton. Paul has led CSM for nearly ten years and brings extensive experience in academia, previously serving as Dean of the School of Engineering at Arizona State University. Jeff has served as CEO of Halliburton since 2017 and has held multiple senior leadership roles across the company since joining in 1997. Before our discussion, we had the pleasure of touring the CSM campus, visiting with faculty, staff and students, and hearing from select administrators. We were thrilled to visit with Paul and Jeff for a broad discussion on the evolving landscape of energy education, workforce development, and the critical role of industry-academia collaboration in shaping the future of energy.
 
In our conversation, we explore CSM’s history, its longstanding focus on engineering, and its deep ties to the energy industry. We discuss the collaboration of Halliburton Labs with universities and research institutions as well as the resurgence of interest in mining, driven by its critical role in energy security and renewables. Paul shares insights into CSM’s experimental mine and its applications across energy, defense, and technology sectors, how Mines contributes to U.S. competitiveness in the global energy landscape, and the university’s balance between academic research and real-world industry applications. We examine the shift in student interests and industry focus over the past decade, Halliburton’s approach to hiring and retaining skilled workers, and the benefits of CSM’s emphasis on real-world problem solving. Paul shares his perspective on the increasing importance of hands-on experience in engineering education and the diversity of industries hiring CSM graduates from aerospace, oil and gas, infrastructure, computer science and more. Jeff discusses how Halliburton Labs supports early-stage companies, the role of accelerators in bridging the gap between R&D and commercialization, and differences between “Founders” and “CEOs.” We touch on technological advancements at CSM including its ambitious expansion into space resource utilization and development of a cutting-edge quantum engineering program, AI’s growing impact on industry and education, and much more. We ended by asking Paul and Jeff for their vision of CSM and Halliburton in the next decade. Their outlook reflects continued growth and a can-do attitude toward solving some of the world’s most pressing challenges. Today was a fascinating exploration of the current state of industry-academic collaboration, the new energy pragmatism we all keep talking about, and the incredible innovation that can happen on a great campus like CSM.
 
As you’ll hear, we discuss the exciting Halliburton Labs Pitch Day event taking place in Denver Wednesday. For more information and to register for Pitch Day, click here. If you are in Denver, it’s not too late to come in person. Otherwise, you can register to attend virtually from anywhere!
 
We want to thank the teams at Colorado School of Mines and Halliburton Labs for their partnership and hospitality in making today’s episode possible. A huge thanks to Paul and Jeff for sharing their time and expertise with us all.
 
And as always, thanks to you all for your friendship and support!

Today we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Dr. Scott Tinker, Chairman of Switch Energy Alliance, CEO of Tinker Energy Associates, and Director Emeritus of the Bureau of Economic Geology at UT Austin. Scott also hosts “Energy Switch,” a PBS talk show featuring America’s leading experts on energy and climate. His work is focused on uniting industry, government, academia, and NGOs to address major societal challenges in energy, the environment, and the economy. In that spirit, Scott recently announced the formation of a new nonprofit, Energy Corps, which was developed in partnership with Toby Rice of EQT. It’s always fantastic to visit with Scott and we appreciate him joining us to share more about Energy Corps along with his latest insights.
 
In our discussion, Scott shares his perspective on evolving global attitudes toward oil and gas, emphasizing the need for leadership that voices informed opinions rather than conforming to every pendulum swing in public sentiment. We explore the reality that for much of the global population, climate change is not a top priority, and that economic development and access to affordable, reliable energy take precedence. We discuss the widening gap between wealthy and poor nations, where billions still live without sufficient energy access and face urgent priorities for human progress, education, and quality of life. We explore the hope that Scott has encountered in developing nations for their future, contrasted with the fear and climate anxiety prevalent in many developed countries. Scott raises concerns about policies that restrict resource development in poorer nations due to climate concerns, characterizing these restrictions as a form of modern economic colonialism. Meanwhile, China’s significant investments in infrastructure in developing countries have been welcomed, showing a broader preference among these nations for investment over aid. Scott shares his “50-50-50 Vision” for Energy Corps, aiming to lift all 8.3 billion people to 50 megawatt-hours of energy consumption and $50,000 GDP per capita annually within 50 years. The organization intends to measure human progress through energy success, partnering with existing organizations to focus on measurement of impact, path to commercialization for sustainable growth, and global boots-on-the-ground engagement. We discuss the growing acknowledgement of “The Rational Middle,” the concept of “debt to fret,” referencing previous debt-driven policies that have led to widespread concern about economic stability today, and hope that uniting people around the shared goal of advancing humanity through energy access could foster more durable, bipartisan policy. We also touch on younger generations’ perspectives on nuclear energy, the importance of tailoring energy solutions to regional resources, and the need for diverse energy portfolios to meet global needs. Throughout the conversation, Scott shares unique, personal stories from his travels to over 60 countries, providing a real-world view of the global energy landscape. As always, it was a fascinating and wide-ranging discussion.
 
To kick off the show, Mike Bradley shared that he just returned from Panama, where the National Assembly approved an overhaul of the country’s social security system, with President Mulino expected to sign it into law. The significance of this reform, Mike noted, is that it allows President Mulino to focus on his second major domestic challenge, which is restarting the Cobre Panama copper mine, which was closed under his predecessor. On the bond market front, Mike highlighted Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision Meeting, noting that consensus expects the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged despite recent economic data showing the U.S. economy is slowing and inflation is cooling. On the broader equity market front, equities have recently begun moving sideways (after ~10% correction due mostly to Trumpatility). In addition to the FOMC M

We are very excited to share this Special Edition COBT on the 5th Anniversary of We are very excited to share this Special Edition COBT on the 5th Anniversary of COBT. Our very first show was March 10, 2020 (exactly 5 years ago today!), and we are beyond thrilled that Secretary Chris Wright joined us to commemorate the event. This week will be his debut party at CERAWeek, so the timing could not have been better for a discussion.
 
Secretary Wright was nominated by President Trump to serve as the 17th Secretary of Energy on November 16, 2024, and confirmed by the U.S. Senate on February 3rd, 2025. If you have not yet watched his confirmation hearing, it’s a must-see for energy policy insights and is linked here.

CERAWeek officially starts today in Houston (agenda linked here) and Secretary Wright was the kickoff speaker Monday morning. In our COBT discussion with Secretary Wright, we explore the expanding role of natural gas in the global energy mix, the rising costs of electricity, and the importance of grid stability supported by natural gas, nuclear, and coal. We discuss regulatory barriers affecting the construction of pipelines, transmission lines, and large-scale energy projects in the U.S. and how AI is shaping the future of energy from advancing fusion energy and grid optimization to breakthroughs in drug discovery and national security applications. Secretary Wright shares his observations that policymakers are becoming more pragmatic about energy affordability and reliability, the need for tailored energy solutions in the U.S. with many states relying on different energy sources, Puerto Rico’s ongoing energy crisis and the determination of the current Governor to fix it, pipeline infrastructure challenges in the Northeast, and the important work that U.S. National Labs are doing to advance scientific achievements. We ask Secretary Wright for his thoughts on Europe’s energy policies and the unfortunate industrial decline that’s happening there, Africa’s urgent need for reliable energy, and the complex realities of climate change. Secretary Wright emphasizes the importance of intellectual honesty in energy and climate discussions and shares insights on navigating government bureaucracy, building a high-performing team at DOE, and shaping energy policies that balance security, cost, and sustainability. As anyone who has listened to him knows, the message is “energy addition” and not “energy subtraction.” The other thing that resonates is his clear determination to do what he can to help the nation. A huge thank you to Secretary Wright for joining us today.

To start the show, Mike Bradley provided an update on the year-to-date performance for a number of key flavors: the 10-year bond, broader equity markets, energy and power equities, and energy commodities, with an emphasis on the surge in U.S. natural gas prices.

A few items were mentioned during the discussion: Secretary Wright’s first Secretarial Order is linked here, Jim Ratcliffe’s letter on the challenges facing Europe’s chemical industry is linked here, and the Bettering Human Lives report is linked here. Today marks Secretary Wright’s third appearance on COBT. We previously had the pleasure of hosting him on October 11, 2022 (episode linked here) and September 27, 2023 (episode linked here).

As we look back on the past 5 years of COBT, we have had 269 regular Tuesday episodes, 32 Special Edition episodes, and over 320 guests from across the energy sector. For a fun look back from the archives, the first ever episode of COBT from Marc

Today we had a fantastic session with Neil Mehta, Managing Director and Head of North American Natural Resources Equity Research, alongside his colleague Carly Davenport, Vice President of Equity Research, with Goldman Sachs. Neil joined Goldman in 2008 and oversees research coverage across oil and gas, utilities, midstream, metals and mining, and clean technology, while also leading coverage for large cap energy equities. Carly joined Goldman in 2016 and covers U.S. utilities. She previously covered SMID cap refiners and was a member of the integrated oils & refiners team. With energy earnings season wrapping up, we wanted to reflect on key takeaways. We were fortunate to host Neil and Carly, whose coverage and breadth of knowledge made for a fascinating discussion.
 
In our discussion, Neil first provides a detailed overview of key trends driving market performance, highlighting a shift from a broad sectoral view to a more focused approach on stock selection and performance dispersion. He emphasizes the significant performance differences among companies based on operational execution, capital allocation, and management quality. On the oil and gas side, Neil notes that range-bound commodity prices have reinforced the need for disciplined positioning, with an emphasis on capital efficiency and balance sheet strength. Carly walks us through key trends in utilities, including the surging focus on power demand driven by AI, data centers, and industrial expansion. We explore the growing interconnection between energy and technology markets and its impact on investor behavior, including how generalist investors are increasingly shaping energy sector valuations by focusing on growth and ESG considerations. We discuss the evolving natural gas landscape, the mounting pressure on power prices, and shifting attitudes among tech companies toward energy sourcing, with reliability and speed to market taking precedence over sustainability. We examine trends of investors seeking more access to company boards, the importance of engaged and visible boards in maintaining investor confidence, power price trends, how utilities can sustain investor confidence by tying equity raises to accretive growth opportunities, the role of power forward curves, best practices for managing earnings calls, and more. We greatly appreciate Neil and Carly for sharing their time and perspectives.
 
For additional insights from Neil, we previously had the pleasure of hosting him on COBT in September 2022 (episode linked here).
 
To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted that the 10yr bond yield has plunged to its lowest level (~4.2%) of President Trump’s second term. Bond markets are growing increasingly concerned that Canadian, Chinese & Mexican tariffs will lead to retaliatory measures against the U.S. which could impact/slow U.S. economic growth. He noted that bonds are now dialing in three interest rate cuts for 2025, and that on the broader equity market front, equities have become increasingly more volatile. He discussed the big intraday volatility on Tuesday in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (~750-point intraday swing) and that the S&P 500 was down ~3% over the last week (due to souring investor sentiment) and was approaching technically oversold territory. On the crude oil market front, WTI price slid to ~$68/bbl this week (approaching low-end of its 6mo trading range) due to OPEC+ unexpectedly signaling its intention to begin unwinding long-held oil production cuts, beginning in April. If OPEC+ does follow through with oil production increases, as planned, then it’ll further widen the 2025 global oil surplus unless its offset by yet unannounced Iranian sanctions by the U.S. On the Energy equity front, the YTD performance dispersion in the Energy sector, and especially

Today we had the honor of welcoming back our good friend Dr. Dan Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, Chairman of CERAWeek, and Pulitzer Prize-winning author of “The Prize” and more recently “The New Map.” He is widely recognized as one of the foremost experts on energy, geopolitics, and the global economy and his achievements and contributions to the energy industry are immense. We were delighted to have an hour of Dan’s time to hear his latest insights on the evolving energy landscape and to preview key themes and discussions at CERAWeek, which is kicking off in just under two weeks.
 
This Tuesday, Dan’s paper, co-authored with Peter Orszag and Atul Arya, was published in Foreign Affairs titled “The Troubled Energy Transition: How to Find a Pragmatic Path Forward” (linked here). Dan also recently co-authored an article titled “The importance of US LNG for economic growth and the global energy transition” (linked here). In our conversation with Dan, we explore key themes from both pieces, including the challenges of balancing energy security, economic growth, and the global energy transition. We ask Dan for his perspective on today’s complex geopolitical environment, the influence of the current U.S. administration on energy and regulation, and global energy competition, including the divide between developed and developing nations, where economic growth and energy access remain a top priority. We touch on key topics and speakers at CERAWeek, including new discussions on trade and industrial policy, the future of aviation fuel, Saudi Aramco’s experience with solar, and the growing momentum behind fusion energy, just to name a few. Dan shares insights into the historical context of today’s energy transition, emphasizing that it is an energy addition rather than a transition, along with misconceptions about how transitions unfold and the evolving role of critical minerals in global energy policy. We discuss the potential for a resolution in the Russia-Ukraine war, its implications for commodity markets and geopolitical strategy, and the broader complexities of managing volatility in today’s rapidly shifting energy landscape. As always, it was our pleasure to visit with Dan and we appreciate his thoughtfulness and optimism for the future of energy. Thank you, Dan, for joining us!

Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that broader equity markets seem to be entirely focused on AI-related news this week. He noted that rumors earlier this week that Microsoft was cancelling data center leases have slammed the stock prices of IPP & Electrical Providers. NVIDIA reports Q4 results after Wednesday’s close, which will set the tone for equities (AI Tech & IPPs) through the end of the week. On the crude oil market front, over the last week WTI price has sunk ~$3/bbl ($69/bbl) on several factors, chief among them being growing optimism of a potential Ukrainian ceasefire. Offsetting this potentially bearish oil news is a growing belief that OPEC will delay April scheduled production increases to 2H’25. He rounded out the conversation by highlighting that the focal story in Energy equities this week is BP’s Capital Markets Day (set for Wednesday, details linked here). He noted that BP has previously indicated that the theme for their Capital Markets Day will be a “fundamental reset of strategy” and that investors aren’t going to settle for small changes, rather, they’re demanding a wholesale retreat from renewables, significant non-core asset sales and a total refocus on fossil fuels. Jeff Tillery also joined and