C.O.B. Tuesday

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Tyler Hassen, CEO of Zone Frontier and author of the recently published book, Inside DOGE. Tyler spent 16 years in the oilfield services industry, serving in both CFO and CEO roles, before joining the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and serving as Assistant Secretary for Policy, Management and Budget at the U.S. Department of the Interior. His book offers a firsthand look at the inner workings of DOGE, the challenges of reducing government spending, and the opportunities to improve efficiency and accountability across federal agencies. We were delighted to host Tyler for a fascinating discussion about his experience inside government, lessons learned, and what meaningful government reform could look like going forward.
 
In our conversation, Tyler shares his background in the oilfield services industry, his motivation for joining the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and his concerns about the growing U.S. national debt. He discusses his experience transitioning from the private sector into government, working alongside Elon Musk and Secretary Doug Burgum, and bringing a business-oriented approach to federal spending. We explore the history of government efficiency initiatives, the importance of bipartisan cooperation, and the challenges of reducing spending while preserving essential government services. Tyler explains that while the Department of the Interior received approximately $18 billion in annual congressional appropriations, total spending was closer to $35 billion when accounting for additional funding programs. We discuss his efforts to review thousands of contracts and grants, identify unnecessary spending, and establish greater accountability across the department.
 
We turn to the organizational inefficiencies, outdated technology, and opportunities to modernize government operations Tyler encountered. He shares examples of duplicative administrative functions, fragmented procurement practices, and disconnected technology systems. One striking example involved 19 separate permitting systems at the Department of the Interior, which Tyler says contributed to a backlog of more than 160,000 permits and average processing times of approximately four years. Tyler describes how DOGE engineers connected the systems within weeks, highlighting the potential for technology improvements to accelerate energy and infrastructure development. We explore opportunities to consolidate government services, evaluate underutilized federal land and real estate, and introduce more disciplined spending practices, including Tyler’s implementation of a $50,000 approval threshold for new contracts and grants.
 
We discuss the public perception of DOGE, the challenges of communicating its objectives, and lessons learned from the initiative. Tyler reflects on the media scrutiny surrounding DOGE, Elon Musk’s leadership style and emphasis on urgency, and the importance of building public support for fiscal reform. We explore the potential for AI to identify waste and fraud, streamline government processes, and modernize outdated systems. Tyler shares his belief that government efficiency efforts should become a permanent, bipartisan initiative supported by talented individuals from the private sector. We conclude with his perspectives on what a future DOGE initiative could look like, the importance of attracting more talent into public service, and the need for greater awareness of the long-term implications of the national debt. We greatly appreciate Tyler joining us and sharing his insights.
 
Mike Bradley opened the discussion by highlighting mixed market performance, with U.S. Treasury yields modestly lower, broader equity markets slightly higher, and oil prices declining. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was trading at approximately 5.1%, down from 5.2% a week earlier, as investors focused on the upcoming October 28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where another rate hike is widely expected. Turning to energy commodity markets, WTI crude oil was trading at approximately $102 per barrel, down $2 on the day but up roughly $8 over the past week, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued tightness in global refined product markets, particularly diesel.
 
In broader equity markets, the S&P 500 was modestly higher on the day but remained lower for the week, weighed down by Technology sector weakness. The Nasdaq Composite and Magnificent 7 stocks declined roughly 4% over the past five trading days, while the SOX Semiconductor Index fell approximately 7%–8%. Investors have increasingly rotated toward more defensive sectors. Turning to energy equities, third-quarter earnings season was underway, with Halliburton and other Oilfield Services companies providing updates on North American frac, International, and Offshore markets. Investors were also focused on Valero Energy's upcoming results for insights into refining fundamentals, margin sustainability, and shareholder returns.
 
In power markets, Utilities outperformed, while IPPs declined roughly 8% over the past week and many distributed generation and Small Modular Reactor companies fell by mid-teen percentages. Mike concluded by noting that Energy and Power earnings season will accelerate next week, with investor attention particularly focused on Integrated Oil Majors and U.S. Refiners. Veriten Senior Advisor Deborah Byers also joined and added her perspectives and questions throughout the conversation.

We are excited to share this Special Edition featuring Rob Connors, Founder of The Crude Chronicles. Rob is a longtime sell-side research analyst who covered companies across oil and gas, industrials, transportation, and aerospace and defense before launching The Crude Chronicles. His Substack offers in-depth analysis of energy markets, industry investment cycles, capital allocation, and historical trends. We have gotten to know Rob over the past few years and are avid readers of his work. We were delighted to host Rob for a wide-ranging discussion on global refining markets, capital allocation and executive incentives, and the long-term outlook for oil and natural gas.
 
In our conversation, Rob shares his outlook for global refining markets, the potential for “peak refining,” and why he believes refining margins could remain structurally elevated for years to come. We discuss the impact of the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions on global refining capacity, the importance of secondary processing units in determining refinery profitability, and the supply-demand outlook for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Rob walks us through historical refining cycles, comparisons to the 2021–2022 diesel price spike, and why limited new capacity and low refined product inventories could contribute to prolonged market tightness. We explore how a resolution to the conflict could impact crack spreads and the growing importance of refining capacity for energy security.
 
We then turn to capital allocation across the energy industry and Rob’s detailed work analyzing executive compensation structures to understand corporate behavior and investment cycles. Rob explains how refiners and oil-focused E&P companies have increasingly prioritized returns on capital and shareholder distributions over production growth, and how these incentives have shaped investment decisions. We discuss shifting priorities among European integrated oil companies, including BP, the potential influence of shareholder activism, and whether the industry has moved from overinvestment to underinvestment. We also explore parallels between historical Big Oil investment cycles and today’s technology sector, where growth-oriented executive incentives are helping drive significant AI-related capital spending.
 
We discuss the outlook for natural gas, including expectations for demand growth, continued supply expansion, and differences in capital allocation incentives between oil-focused and natural gas-focused E&P companies. Rob shares his perspectives on slowing oil well productivity growth, the relationship between geology and technology, rising development costs, and the implications for long-term oil prices, exploration, and oilfield services. We also touch on opportunities in Canadian oil and gas, rising U.S. LNG development costs, labor constraints, and the origins of The Crude Chronicles, including Rob’s approach to historical energy market analysis and independent research. It was a fascinating tour de force of Rob’s research and latest insights.
 
Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by reiterating that markets remain heavily influenced by key economic reports. September CPI came in slightly hotter than expected at 3.7%, pushing the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield intraday to ~5.25%, up ~5 basis points on the day. September PPI is scheduled for release on Thursday, with consensus expectations of a 5.4% year-over-year increase. Both reports will play an important role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision at its October 28 FOMC meeting. Turning to oil markets, WTI crude was trading at ~$95/bbl, up ~$1/bbl on the day and ~$3–4/bbl over the previous five trading days. Oil prices remain volatile as markets react to missile strikes against Saudi Arabia and ongoing geopolitical tensions across the Gulf region.
 
In broader equity markets, the S&P 500 was down ~1% on the day, driven by weakness in Financials and Technology. Bank of America shares declined ~7–8%, weighing on the broader banking sector, while semiconductor stocks continued to face selling pressure, with the SOX Index down ~3–4% on the day and ~10% over the previous five trading days. Energy was among the S&P 500's best-performing sectors, gaining ~0.5–0.6% on stronger crude prices. Mike also highlighted National Fuel Gas Company's announcement of plans to separate its integrated Upstream and Gathering businesses into two publicly traded companies.
 
Thanks again to Rob for joining us. We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did!

Today we were delighted to host David Hill, Senior Advisor, and Xan Fishman, Executive Vice President of Energy, with the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC). The BPC is a leading Washington-based nonprofit organization dedicated to bringing stakeholders together to address critical U.S. policy issues and identify areas of alignment for action. We were thrilled to visit with David and Xan for their latest insights on permitting reform, the policy environment in Washington, and the prospects for meaningful bipartisan legislation.
 
In our conversation, Xan and David highlight the issues with the current permitting system and the growing bipartisan recognition that permitting reform is essential to improving energy affordability, supporting economic growth, and strengthening U.S. competitiveness. We explore the role of competition with China, rising electricity demand from AI and data centers, and the uncertainty created by shifting policy priorities across administrations.
 
We discuss the Senate’s proposed permitting reform legislation, the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, and its key provisions. Xan and David walk through proposed changes to transmission permitting, the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), judicial review, the Clean Water Act, and project certainty, as well as provisions supporting geothermal development and behind-the-meter resources. We touch on the importance of reducing litigation risk, providing greater certainty for infrastructure developers and investors, and addressing the ability of individual states to block interstate transmission lines and natural gas pipelines. We highlight industry support for the legislation, potential implications for competition and capital allocation, and how the Supreme Court’s Chevron and Seven Counties decisions relate to the broader permitting debate.
 
We examine the prospects for passing the legislation following the midterm elections and the challenges of moving a comprehensive bipartisan agreement through Congress. Xan and David share their insights on the importance of preserving the negotiated compromise, the potential impact of changes in congressional leadership, and why the upcoming lame-duck session could present an important opportunity for action. We also discuss the implementation process if the bill becomes law, including agency rulemaking and potential litigation, as well as the BPC’s broader energy policy priorities around electricity load growth, natural gas, critical minerals, and carbon accounting. We end with a fascinating overview of how Congress evaluates complex legislation, the role of congressional staff and committees, and the importance of personal relationships in achieving bipartisan compromise.
 
As mentioned, the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) has published a summary of the Senate permitting bill, the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, available here. We greatly enjoyed the discussion and appreciate David and Xan for sharing their time and perspectives.
 
Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by noting that market performance this week could be heavily influenced by several key economic reports, including September CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales. Together, these reports will provide insights into inflation and consumer spending trends and could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision at the upcoming FOMC meeting.
 
Turning to energy commodity markets, WTI crude oil was trading near $93/bbl, down ~$1/bbl on the day but up ~$2/bbl for the week, as markets continued to react to missile strikes against Saudi Arabia. European natural gas prices were trading near $29/MMBtu, their highest level of the current cycle, amid concerns over low storage inventories heading into winter. By contrast, U.S. Henry Hub natural gas prices have remained largely unchanged year-to-date. He highlighted that speculative positioning in U.S. natural gas remains heavily bearish, with NYMEX net non-commercial positions approaching Covid-era levels, potentially setting the stage for a sharp upward price move if winter weather associated with El Niño proves colder than expected.
 
Turning to broader equity markets, the DJIA and S&P 500 were relatively flat, with investor attention focused on third-quarter earnings from major U.S. banks. Semiconductor stocks have been a significant headwind, declining ~8–10% over the past five trading days amid growing concerns about the sustainability of AI-related spending. In energy equities, third-quarter earnings season begins in earnest next week, with reports from major oilfield service, offshore service, and distributed generation companies expected to provide insights into upstream, offshore, and power-related capital spending trends through 2027.

With the midterm elections approaching, one particularly important race for the energy industry is the election for Texas Railroad Commissioner. This week, we had the opportunity to host Representative Jon Rosenthal, one of three candidates running to succeed incumbent Commissioner Jim Wright. Jon is currently serving his fourth term in the Texas House and has 25 years of experience in the oil and gas industry as an engineer and project manager. We were excited to hear Jon’s perspective on the race, the role of the Railroad Commission, and the key energy issues facing Texas.
 
In our conversation, Jon shares the motivation behind his decision to run for the Railroad Commission and how his background in oil and gas shapes his perspective on the role. He discusses Winter Storm Uri, natural gas deliverability and grid reliability, and the importance of working collaboratively with industry to develop practical solutions. We discuss orphaned and zombie wells, the Commission’s resources and permitting processes, and opportunities to better support responsible operators while holding repeat violators accountable.
 
We examine produced water, including saltwater disposal constraints, seismicity, beneficial reuse, and opportunities to incentivize new treatment and reclamation technologies. Jon discusses Texas’s broader water challenges and the potential for reclaimed produced water to help meet growing demand from agriculture, power generation, industry, and data centers. We also explore the importance of coordination across the Railroad Commission, TCEQ, PUC, ERCOT, and other parts of Texas’s increasingly interconnected energy system.
 
Jon shares the different priorities he is hearing as he travels across the state, the importance of Texas energy leadership, and his vision for the Railroad Commission. He emphasizes his support for American energy independence as a “drill baby, drill Democrat” and an all-of-the-above approach to meeting growing energy demand. We also discuss his thoughts on strengthening the Commission through additional resources, improved employee retention, and greater collaboration with industry and other state agencies. 
 
To start the show, Mike Bradley characterized markets this week, and since our last COBT episode, as “grinding higher with narrowing breadth.” Treasury yields were largely unchanged, with the 1-year near 5.25% and the 30-year around 5.65%, despite several economic data releases coming in cooler than expected. With yields still near 25-year highs, Mike noted that bond traders may be signaling that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve.
 
In oil markets, WTI was trading around $89–$90/bbl, down ~$10/bbl over the past two weeks as Middle East oil flows have rebounded. Mike highlighted plans by G7 nations to release ~100 million barrels of diesel from strategic stockpiles to ease tight fuel markets, while U.S. diesel prices have fallen from ~$6.50/gallon to ~$6.30/gallon. He also noted that the largely idled St. Croix refinery could begin a phased restart next year. Turning to equities, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq advanced ~2% and ~3%, respectively, over the last five trading days, although Mike cautioned that gains are increasingly concentrated among the Magnificent 7. Energy equities gained ~4%, led by refiners at ~9%, despite lower crude prices. He also highlighted Cenovus Energy’s $5.7 billion acquisition of Athabasca Oil.
 
In power, utilities gained ~3%, with distributed generation companies and IPPs among the strongest performers. Mike highlighted the announced combination of Emera and Canadian Utilities, with a combined enterprise value exceeding $70 billion, as well as several positive nuclear developments. These included Vistra’s conditional DOE loan commitment of up to $4.2 billion to support ~430 MW of nuclear uprates and long-term PPAs between Constellation and Amazon and Google supporting ~1,100 MW of nuclear uprates.

We are excited to share this Special Edition featuring Julie Kozeracki, Acting Chief Investment Officer for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF), for a wide-ranging look at the effort to accelerate nuclear power deployment in the U.S. Julie previously served as a Senior Advisor to the office under the Biden Administration and as a Principal with Boston Consulting Group. EDF has over $250 billion in loan authority available to help deploy high-impact energy infrastructure projects. We were thrilled to hear Julie’s latest insights on EDF’s activities, recent announcements, and the opportunities and challenges ahead for nuclear development in the U.S.
 
In our conversation, we discuss the renewed push to accelerate nuclear power in the U.S. and the increasingly important role of EDF. Julie shares her perspective on nuclear’s bipartisan appeal and its ability to support affordability, reliability, energy security, and lower emissions. We explore how EDF’s approach has evolved, including its expanded financing authorities and increased focus on nuclear, as well as the Administration’s goals of having 10 large reactors with complete designs under construction by 2030 and adding 5 GW of uprates to the existing nuclear fleet.
 
We examine the economics and financing of new nuclear, including EDF’s $17.5 billion program to procure long-lead items for 10 AP1000 reactors and the benefits of standardization, supply-chain investment, and accelerating project timelines. Julie discusses growing interest from utilities and independent power producers, lessons learned from Vogtle Units 3 and 4, and why she believes the risk profile for future AP1000 projects is fundamentally different. We also explore how investors and equity analysts view new nuclear projects and how federal financing, investment tax credits, improved risk sharing, and hyperscaler power purchase agreements could help address concerns around cost and risk. Julie shares her perspective on the different approaches of regulated utilities and IPPs, the potential for build-own-transfer structures, and how growing power demand from AI and data centers could create new opportunities for nuclear development.
 
We discuss the significant near-term opportunity to increase generation from the existing nuclear fleet through power uprates and life extensions, including the potential to extend reactors from 60 to 80 years of operation and potentially longer. More broadly, Julie discusses the importance of baseload and dispatchable generation as electricity demand grows, changing attitudes toward nuclear at the federal, state, and local levels, and the role of existing nuclear sites in supporting future development. We close by discussing what will be required to execute at scale, including strengthening the domestic nuclear supply chain, investing in advanced manufacturing and technologies, and developing the skilled workforce of welders, pipefitters, electricians, and other trades needed to support a new generation of nuclear projects. It was a fascinating discussion and we look forward to staying in touch with Julie.
 
To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted that markets remain focused on interest rates and inflation. Wednesday’s PCE inflation report came in below expectations, with headline PCE at ~3.4% and core PCE at ~3.0%, helping push interest rates modestly lower and equity markets higher. Mike noted that while another Fed rate hike this year may still be on the table, the softer reading could reduce expectations for further increases.
 
Turning to oil markets, Mike noted that oil prices have declined ~$8–$10/bbl over the past two weeks as crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz have increased and Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline has resumed operations at ~3–4mmbpd. He also discussed the potential for a U.S. diesel export ban and highlighted lower diesel prices as an important factor in easing inflation concerns and improving broader economic sentiment. Veriten Managing Director Nick Morriss also joined the discussion and peppered in his nuclear and power questions and perspectives.

We were thrilled to host our good friend Scott Sheffield in advance of his new book, From Tehran to the Permian: Leading the Shale Revolution and My Fight for Energy Independence, publishing on October 6th. Scott’s career spans more than four decades, including serving as CEO of Parker & Parsley and later Pioneer Natural Resources, where he helped lead the company through multiple industry cycles and played an important role in the development of the Permian Basin and the U.S. shale revolution. Scott’s new book traces that journey from his formative years living in Tehran through his decades in the energy industry, sharing the leadership lessons, challenges, and experiences that shaped him along the way. We were honored to host Scott and hear his reflections on his career and his latest perspectives across the energy landscape.
 
In our conversation, we cover the many lessons and experiences captured in From Tehran to the Permian. Scott shares his perspective on culture and leadership, including his emphasis on mutual respect, accountability, efficiency, and maintaining a family feel as Pioneer grew. He reflects on navigating multiple industry downturns, the importance of maintaining low leverage and financial flexibility, building strong management teams and boards, and learning to listen and empower others. We discuss Pioneer’s evolution from its roots in the Spraberry to international exploration and ultimately back to the Permian, as well as Scott’s willingness to change strategy as markets and opportunities evolved.
 
We explore the evolution of the broader oil and gas industry, including the maturation of U.S. shale, the opportunities and challenges of international exploration, Scott’s long history with Australia and the Beetaloo Basin, and his perspectives on shareholder activism, capital discipline, industry consolidation, and the future of public versus private independents. Scott also reflects on his experiences in Iran and shares his perspectives on Iran and Venezuela, as well as his experience with the FTC following ExxonMobil’s acquisition of Pioneer.
 
We touch on today’s energy landscape, including Scott’s role in helping lift the U.S. crude oil export ban in 2015, his thoughts on the potential implications of restricting diesel exports, and the importance of natural gas infrastructure as power demand grows. Scott also shares observations from his time on the Williams board and the increasingly important intersection of natural gas, power generation, LNG, AI, and data centers. Throughout the conversation, we return to many of the themes that define Scott’s career and book: culture, adaptability, financial discipline, great people, and a willingness to listen and evolve.
 
To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted Pioneer Natural Resources’ impressive long-term value creation, from its formation in 1997 through its acquisition by ExxonMobil in 2024. Turning to fixed income, he noted that Treasury yields moved higher this week, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising ~10 basis points to ~5.3%, near a 25-year high. Investors are now focused on Wednesday’s PCE Price Index report, with a stronger-than-expected reading potentially reinforcing expectations for additional rate hikes.
 
WTI is trading at ~$89/bbl, down ~$4/bbl this week and ~$11/bbl over the past two weeks, driven in part by continued oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the restart of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, restoring ~3mmbpd of capacity. Mike noted that a key uncertainty for refined product markets remains whether the Trump Administration will move forward with a temporary diesel export ban.
 
In equities, the DJIA and S&P 500 are both down ~1% this week. With the third quarter drawing to a close, Mike highlighted a significant divergence in sector performance, with Energy up ~15% for the quarter while Utilities declined ~15%. Looking ahead, he noted that further moderation in crude oil and diesel prices could ease inflationary pressures, help stabilize interest rates, and provide a more constructive backdrop for equity markets. Arjun Murti also joined and reflected on knowing Scott from their first meeting during Arjun’s time at Goldman Sachs to their more recent work together at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

Today we had the exciting opportunity to tour Caliche’s Golden Triangle Storage facility in Beaumont, Texas. Caliche is an acquisition and development company focused on the underground storage of natural gas and industrial gases, including hydrogen and helium, as well as carbon sequestration. Following the tour, we sat down with Dave Marchese, CEO of Caliche. Dave has over 25 years of experience in the development, construction, and operation of energy assets, including underground hydrocarbon storage, utility-scale power plants, and petrochemical facilities. We were thrilled to hear Dave’s perspective on the natural gas storage business, the growing importance of storage to LNG and power markets, and the infrastructure needed to support rising U.S. natural gas demand.
 
In our conversation, Dave walks us through the natural gas storage business and why storage is becoming increasingly important as U.S. natural gas demand grows and the energy system becomes more complex. We discuss Caliche’s platform, including Golden Triangle Storage in Beaumont and Central Valley Gas Storage in California, and spend time on the fundamentals of salt cavern and reservoir storage, how storage facilities are developed, and the significant permitting, capital, and contracting requirements involved. Dave shares the history of the storage market, including the industry’s last major buildout, the impact of the shale revolution, and why relatively little new storage capacity has been developed over the past 15 years.
 
We explore what is driving renewed demand for storage today. Dave discusses the increasingly important role storage plays for LNG terminals, including managing large volumes of gas during outages and normal operating fluctuations, as well as its role in supporting gas-fired power generation and balancing an electric grid with growing amounts of intermittent renewable generation. We touch on AI and data center-driven power demand, the potential implications for natural gas infrastructure, and why firm transportation and storage could become increasingly important as that load develops.
 
We also discuss the broader infrastructure picture, including storage needs in West Texas and the Northeast, constraints on moving gas between Texas and Louisiana, permitting and regulatory considerations, and Caliche’s plans to significantly expand both of its existing facilities. Dave shares his perspective on the growing competition for skilled workers across the industrial economy, the importance of investing in and training the next generation of energy professionals, and more. It was a fascinating discussion and a great opportunity to better understand a critical but often underappreciated piece of the natural gas and broader energy infrastructure system.
 
Mike Bradley opened the discussion by highlighting that market conditions were considerably calmer this week after several consecutive weeks of elevated volatility. In fixed income markets, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has pulled back this week to approximately 4.95% following last week's move above the psychologically important 5.0% threshold. Turning to oil markets, WTI crude oil prices have plunged this week to approximately $95 per barrel, down from roughly $103 per barrel at last week's close. The sharp decline was driven primarily by reports that Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline system, which has a capacity of roughly 5 million barrels per day, could soon resume operations.
 
Turning to equities, he highlighted that a combination of lower interest rates, declining oil prices, and easing concerns surrounding AI-related risks appeared to provide a more constructive backdrop for broader equity markets this week. Mike flagged that President Trump's address to the United Nations as well as President Xi Jinping's upcoming visit to the United States on September 24 could emerge as important market catalysts in the week ahead. Investors will be closely monitoring discussions surrounding artificial intelligence, trade relations, and the ongoing conflict involving Iran, as developments in any of these areas could have meaningful implications for global equity, commodity, and currency markets.

As you may know, Gastech is currently underway in Bangkok, Thailand. To help us get a sense of the on-the-ground takeaways and sentiment, we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Martin Houston. Martin is a longtime energy industry leader with decades of global experience. He currently serves as Chairman of Omega Oil and Gas, a Non-Executive Director of Energean, BUPA Arabia, CC Energy, and Singapore GasCo, and a Senior Advisor at Moelis & Company. Martin previously co-founded Tellurian, where he served as Executive Chairman until the company’s sale in 2024, and spent 32 years at BG Group, serving as Chief Operating Officer and Executive Director. Mark Castiglione is also attending Gastech and joined us for today’s session. We were thrilled to host Martin and hear his perspectives on the global natural gas and LNG outlook, Asia’s growing energy needs, and beyond.
 
In our conversation, Martin and Mark share key themes emerging from Gastech, including energy security, affordability, and reliability, Asia’s role as the primary engine of global energy demand growth, and a more pragmatic approach to decarbonization. They discuss how Asian policymakers and industry leaders are focused on securing the affordable and reliable energy needed to support economic growth and rising power demand. We explore the global natural gas and LNG outlook, the growing importance of resilience and diversity of supply, the push to advance new U.S. FIDs, and the potential for continued demand growth in increasingly price-sensitive markets such as China.
 
We examine the intersection of energy and geopolitics, including growing government intervention in energy markets, the possibility of Russian natural gas eventually returning to Europe, U.S. natural gas resource depth, and significant gas development opportunities in Australia and Indonesia. We discuss ASEAN grid connectivity and the region’s increasing focus on energy diversification and cooperation, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, European gas storage levels, and potential surprises for global energy markets. Martin highlights growing investment in infrastructure “workarounds” to the Strait that could reshape regional energy flows and expresses optimism that global natural gas demand and supply could ultimately surprise to the upside, despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and volatility. We greatly appreciate Martin for joining us during a very busy week in Bangkok.
 
In our upfront discussion, Mike Bradley noted that the primary themes in our lead-ins over the past several weeks have been elevated U.S. interest rates, heightened volatility in global oil markets, and below-average European natural gas storage levels. This week, however, another risk entered the spotlight: the AI-driven market scare, which has contributed to increased volatility and negatively impacted U.S. equity markets. In fixed income, the 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 5% for the first time since 2007. Markets are focused on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with a 25-basis-point rate increase broadly expected and investors watching Chairman Warsh’s comments for signals on inflation and further hikes.
 
In energy, WTI rose to ~$103–$104/bbl, partly reflecting damage to Saudi Arabia’s ~5 MMBpd East-West pipeline system. U.S. retail diesel prices have climbed to ~$6.25/gal, fueling debate over potential export restrictions. European natural gas prices also rose to ~$28/MMBtu, up ~200% year-to-date, as concerns persist over rebuilding storage ahead of winter. Mike wrapped by highlighting growing AI-related concerns, which contributed to a ~500-point decline in the DJIA. Recent comments from Anthropic’s CEO have raised questions in the minds of investors about the longer-term growth trajectory of the Mag 7 and the industrial, utility, and energy companies benefiting from the AI infrastructure build-out.
 
We hope you all enjoy the discussion as much as we did. Thanks again to Martin for joining and our best to you all!

Today marks 25 years since September 11, 2001. We wanted to do our part to remember the lives lost, the extraordinary heroism of that day, and the very best of humanity that emerged amid unimaginable tragedy. For this Special Edition COBT, we sat down with three longtime friends, David Trice, Terry Rathert, and Steve Campbell, to remember the events of that morning and reflect on an experience we shared firsthand. On the morning of September 11, 2001, we were having breakfast together at the Marriott World Trade Center, located between and connected to the North and South Towers, when the first plane struck.
 
In our conversation, we retrace the morning as we remember it: the first moments inside the Marriott, our exit south from the World Trade Center complex toward Battery Park, the collapse of the towers, becoming separated, and eventually finding our way out of Manhattan. We reflect on the instinctive decisions made in moments of extraordinary uncertainty, the courage of first responders moving toward danger, and the countless acts of kindness we witnessed from strangers throughout the day.
 
We also discuss how September 11 changed the way we thought about risk, safety, travel, and the world around us. Twenty-five years later, our memories remain remarkably vivid. We believe remembering and sharing these stories matters – not only to honor those who were lost, but also to remember the courage, generosity, and humanity that so many people showed that day. We are deeply grateful to David, Terry, and Steve for joining us for such a personal conversation and for allowing us to share our memories with the COBT community.
 
This was perhaps the most unique episode in COBT’s history. We hope you find the discussion meaningful and that it contributes in some small way to your own remembrance of the day.
 
We Will Never Forget.

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Judah Cohen for a discussion focused on weather. Judah is a Director of Seasonal Forecasting at JANUS Research Group and a Research Scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His work focuses on sub-seasonal to seasonal weather forecasting, with particular expertise in the polar vortex, Arctic climate variability, and the factors that drive winter weather across North America and Europe. We were excited to hear Judah’s perspective on the upcoming season, the evolution of weather forecasting, and how new technologies including AI could improve our ability to predict weather further into the future.
 
In our conversation, we explore the evolution of weather forecasting and Dr. Cohen’s career studying sub-seasonal to seasonal weather patterns, including the industry’s progression from historical analogs and statistical methods to increasingly sophisticated physics-based models. We discuss how satellite observations and expanded global datasets have improved our understanding of the atmosphere, as well as the limitations of historical weather data and where today’s models continue to struggle, particularly beyond the traditional one- to two-week forecasting window. Dr. Cohen shared his perspective on the growing role of AI in weather forecasting, the strengths and limitations of current dynamical models, and why better modeling of the interactions between the troposphere, polar vortex, and jet stream could meaningfully improve longer-range forecasts. We also discuss the respective roles of academia, government forecasting centers, and private-sector companies in advancing the next generation of weather modeling.
 
We examine upcoming winter outlooks and the implications of a potentially historic “Super El Niño.” Dr. Cohen explains why El Niño’s influence on winter weather is not necessarily linear and cautioned against assuming that an exceptionally strong El Niño guarantees an exceptionally warm winter. We explore his research linking Siberian snow cover to disruptions of the polar vortex and colder conditions in eastern North America as well as the potential for episodic cold and snow even during an otherwise mild winter. We cover the outlook for Europe, where natural gas storage levels make winter weather particularly consequential, and the difficulty of using El Niño alone to reliably forecast European conditions. We also touch on how an unexpected, multi-week cold snap could materially affect natural gas demand and prices, highlighting the significant implications of improving weather forecasting for energy markets and preparedness for extreme winter events.
 
Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell ~600 points this week as investors grappled with higher oil prices and rising U.S. bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to ~4.8%, while the 30-year reached ~5.25%. With August CPI and PPI reports due later this week, Mike noted that inflation data could play an important role in shaping interest rate policy at the Sept. 16 FOMC meeting. Turning to energy markets, WTI crude oil increased ~$2/bbl to ~$94/bbl amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, with reports of potential explosions on Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal. European natural gas prices also continued higher, reaching ~$26–$27/MMBtu and bringing year-to-date gains to ~180%, as concerns grow over Europe’s ability to replenish storage ahead of the winter heating season.
 
Mike wrapped by highlighting the Barclays Energy-Power Conference in New York City, which he is attending this week. Based on his initial meetings, he noted a more constructive tone among companies and investors, with growing optimism around the energy and power outlook into 2027. Veriten Senior Advisor Deborah Byers also joined and added her perspectives and questions throughout the conversation.