Today we were delighted to welcome Michael Kao, Private Investor at Kao Family Office and CEO & Portfolio Manager of Akanthos Capital Management. Michael founded Akanthos in 2002 and transitioned to focus on his family office in 2019. Michael is also the author of "Kaoboy Musings” on Substack (linked here). Previously, he was a Portfolio Manager at Canyon Capital Advisors, where he co-founded the Canyon Arbitrage Fund. Michael started his career in the commodities unit at J.Aron/Goldman Sachs and has over 30 years of experience across commodities, credit, convertible arbitrage, and distressed investing.

As we approach what President Trump has coined “Liberation Day” on April 2nd, we were eager to find someone who could help us all better understand the rationale behind these developments and their implications. In recent Substack posts, Michael has shared some of his interesting theories and makes a case that what appears chaotic and unpredictable might actually be part of an audacious but coordinated plan. We were thrilled to hear Michael’s latest insights on market volatility, energy dynamics, the evolving investment landscape, and why April 2nd might just be another stop on the way to (hopefully) something better.

In our conversation, we first ask Michael for his view on the complexities surrounding the Trump Administration’s actions and how to interpret the end goals of their policies. He shares an analogy comparing the current U.S. economic environment to navigating an asteroid field (like Han Solo’s decision to fly the Millennium Falcon directly into an asteroid field when being chased by the Empire in Star Wars), highlighting several key economic challenges to manage including the current 7% non-wartime deficit, short-term debt reliance, geopolitical tensions, and the need for broader economic recalibration. We explore various ways to manage the U.S. debt including the possibility of terming out debt and reshoring manufacturing, the impact of oil prices on the broader economy, the weakening U.S. dollar, and how the Trump Administration’s shift from a “carrot” to “stick” approach in policy negotiations may affect market dynamics. We discuss potential scenarios for a U.S. recession or economic slowdown, the growth of the private equity market, the increasing role of private credit in financing private equity-backed companies, and the role of the Federal Reserve in the broader economic picture. Michael provides insights on how sovereign wealth funds could help manage the U.S. national balance sheet by leveraging geographic assets, his experience in transitioning to managing his family office and focusing more on uncorrelated private investments, the potential for a black swan event, the risk of ongoing geopolitical tensions escalating, the importance of thinking outside the box, and much more. We greatly appreciate Michael joining and sharing his expertise and insights with us all.

As you’ll hear, we discuss some of Michael’s recent posts. His piece entitled “Mental Models – Navigating The Asteroid Field With Trump 2.0” is linked here and the Kaos Theory podcast episode featuring Michael Every is linked here.
 
Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that markets are in a “Calm Before the Storm” mode with investors awaiting the impact of Trump’s April 2nd reciprocal tariffs. Rather than focusing on how markets might react post-reciprocal tariffs, Mike reviewed how markets performed in Q1’25 with the “Trumpatility” overhang. In bonds, the 10yr fell in Q1 by ~35bps to ~4.20%. WTI price ($71.50/bbl) ended Q1 relatively unchanged, which was a big surprise given the bearish oil sentiment that had built throu

Today we had the very exciting opportunity to take COBT “On The Road” to the Colorado School of Mines (CSM) in Golden, CO, where we recorded a special live audience show featuring Dr. Paul Johnson, President of CSM, and Jeff Miller, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Halliburton. Paul has led CSM for nearly ten years and brings extensive experience in academia, previously serving as Dean of the School of Engineering at Arizona State University. Jeff has served as CEO of Halliburton since 2017 and has held multiple senior leadership roles across the company since joining in 1997. Before our discussion, we had the pleasure of touring the CSM campus, visiting with faculty, staff and students, and hearing from select administrators. We were thrilled to visit with Paul and Jeff for a broad discussion on the evolving landscape of energy education, workforce development, and the critical role of industry-academia collaboration in shaping the future of energy.
 
In our conversation, we explore CSM’s history, its longstanding focus on engineering, and its deep ties to the energy industry. We discuss the collaboration of Halliburton Labs with universities and research institutions as well as the resurgence of interest in mining, driven by its critical role in energy security and renewables. Paul shares insights into CSM’s experimental mine and its applications across energy, defense, and technology sectors, how Mines contributes to U.S. competitiveness in the global energy landscape, and the university’s balance between academic research and real-world industry applications. We examine the shift in student interests and industry focus over the past decade, Halliburton’s approach to hiring and retaining skilled workers, and the benefits of CSM’s emphasis on real-world problem solving. Paul shares his perspective on the increasing importance of hands-on experience in engineering education and the diversity of industries hiring CSM graduates from aerospace, oil and gas, infrastructure, computer science and more. Jeff discusses how Halliburton Labs supports early-stage companies, the role of accelerators in bridging the gap between R&D and commercialization, and differences between “Founders” and “CEOs.” We touch on technological advancements at CSM including its ambitious expansion into space resource utilization and development of a cutting-edge quantum engineering program, AI’s growing impact on industry and education, and much more. We ended by asking Paul and Jeff for their vision of CSM and Halliburton in the next decade. Their outlook reflects continued growth and a can-do attitude toward solving some of the world’s most pressing challenges. Today was a fascinating exploration of the current state of industry-academic collaboration, the new energy pragmatism we all keep talking about, and the incredible innovation that can happen on a great campus like CSM.
 
As you’ll hear, we discuss the exciting Halliburton Labs Pitch Day event taking place in Denver Wednesday. For more information and to register for Pitch Day, click here. If you are in Denver, it’s not too late to come in person. Otherwise, you can register to attend virtually from anywhere!
 
We want to thank the teams at Colorado School of Mines and Halliburton Labs for their partnership and hospitality in making today’s episode possible. A huge thanks to Paul and Jeff for sharing their time and expertise with us all.
 
And as always, thanks to you all for your friendship and support!

Today we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Dr. Scott Tinker, Chairman of Switch Energy Alliance, CEO of Tinker Energy Associates, and Director Emeritus of the Bureau of Economic Geology at UT Austin. Scott also hosts “Energy Switch,” a PBS talk show featuring America’s leading experts on energy and climate. His work is focused on uniting industry, government, academia, and NGOs to address major societal challenges in energy, the environment, and the economy. In that spirit, Scott recently announced the formation of a new nonprofit, Energy Corps, which was developed in partnership with Toby Rice of EQT. It’s always fantastic to visit with Scott and we appreciate him joining us to share more about Energy Corps along with his latest insights.
 
In our discussion, Scott shares his perspective on evolving global attitudes toward oil and gas, emphasizing the need for leadership that voices informed opinions rather than conforming to every pendulum swing in public sentiment. We explore the reality that for much of the global population, climate change is not a top priority, and that economic development and access to affordable, reliable energy take precedence. We discuss the widening gap between wealthy and poor nations, where billions still live without sufficient energy access and face urgent priorities for human progress, education, and quality of life. We explore the hope that Scott has encountered in developing nations for their future, contrasted with the fear and climate anxiety prevalent in many developed countries. Scott raises concerns about policies that restrict resource development in poorer nations due to climate concerns, characterizing these restrictions as a form of modern economic colonialism. Meanwhile, China’s significant investments in infrastructure in developing countries have been welcomed, showing a broader preference among these nations for investment over aid. Scott shares his “50-50-50 Vision” for Energy Corps, aiming to lift all 8.3 billion people to 50 megawatt-hours of energy consumption and $50,000 GDP per capita annually within 50 years. The organization intends to measure human progress through energy success, partnering with existing organizations to focus on measurement of impact, path to commercialization for sustainable growth, and global boots-on-the-ground engagement. We discuss the growing acknowledgement of “The Rational Middle,” the concept of “debt to fret,” referencing previous debt-driven policies that have led to widespread concern about economic stability today, and hope that uniting people around the shared goal of advancing humanity through energy access could foster more durable, bipartisan policy. We also touch on younger generations’ perspectives on nuclear energy, the importance of tailoring energy solutions to regional resources, and the need for diverse energy portfolios to meet global needs. Throughout the conversation, Scott shares unique, personal stories from his travels to over 60 countries, providing a real-world view of the global energy landscape. As always, it was a fascinating and wide-ranging discussion.
 
To kick off the show, Mike Bradley shared that he just returned from Panama, where the National Assembly approved an overhaul of the country’s social security system, with President Mulino expected to sign it into law. The significance of this reform, Mike noted, is that it allows President Mulino to focus on his second major domestic challenge, which is restarting the Cobre Panama copper mine, which was closed under his predecessor. On the bond market front, Mike highlighted Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision Meeting, noting that consensus expects the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged despite recent economic data showing the U.S. economy is slowing and inflation is cooling. On the broader equity market front, equities have recently begun moving sideways (after ~10% correction due mostly to Trumpatility). In addition to the FOMC M

We are very excited to share this Special Edition COBT on the 5th Anniversary of We are very excited to share this Special Edition COBT on the 5th Anniversary of COBT. Our very first show was March 10, 2020 (exactly 5 years ago today!), and we are beyond thrilled that Secretary Chris Wright joined us to commemorate the event. This week will be his debut party at CERAWeek, so the timing could not have been better for a discussion.
 
Secretary Wright was nominated by President Trump to serve as the 17th Secretary of Energy on November 16, 2024, and confirmed by the U.S. Senate on February 3rd, 2025. If you have not yet watched his confirmation hearing, it’s a must-see for energy policy insights and is linked here.

CERAWeek officially starts today in Houston (agenda linked here) and Secretary Wright was the kickoff speaker Monday morning. In our COBT discussion with Secretary Wright, we explore the expanding role of natural gas in the global energy mix, the rising costs of electricity, and the importance of grid stability supported by natural gas, nuclear, and coal. We discuss regulatory barriers affecting the construction of pipelines, transmission lines, and large-scale energy projects in the U.S. and how AI is shaping the future of energy from advancing fusion energy and grid optimization to breakthroughs in drug discovery and national security applications. Secretary Wright shares his observations that policymakers are becoming more pragmatic about energy affordability and reliability, the need for tailored energy solutions in the U.S. with many states relying on different energy sources, Puerto Rico’s ongoing energy crisis and the determination of the current Governor to fix it, pipeline infrastructure challenges in the Northeast, and the important work that U.S. National Labs are doing to advance scientific achievements. We ask Secretary Wright for his thoughts on Europe’s energy policies and the unfortunate industrial decline that’s happening there, Africa’s urgent need for reliable energy, and the complex realities of climate change. Secretary Wright emphasizes the importance of intellectual honesty in energy and climate discussions and shares insights on navigating government bureaucracy, building a high-performing team at DOE, and shaping energy policies that balance security, cost, and sustainability. As anyone who has listened to him knows, the message is “energy addition” and not “energy subtraction.” The other thing that resonates is his clear determination to do what he can to help the nation. A huge thank you to Secretary Wright for joining us today.

To start the show, Mike Bradley provided an update on the year-to-date performance for a number of key flavors: the 10-year bond, broader equity markets, energy and power equities, and energy commodities, with an emphasis on the surge in U.S. natural gas prices.

A few items were mentioned during the discussion: Secretary Wright’s first Secretarial Order is linked here, Jim Ratcliffe’s letter on the challenges facing Europe’s chemical industry is linked here, and the Bettering Human Lives report is linked here. Today marks Secretary Wright’s third appearance on COBT. We previously had the pleasure of hosting him on October 11, 2022 (episode linked here) and September 27, 2023 (episode linked here).

As we look back on the past 5 years of COBT, we have had 269 regular Tuesday episodes, 32 Special Edition episodes, and over 320 guests from across the energy sector. For a fun look back from the archives, the first ever episode of COBT from Marc

Today we had a fantastic session with Neil Mehta, Managing Director and Head of North American Natural Resources Equity Research, alongside his colleague Carly Davenport, Vice President of Equity Research, with Goldman Sachs. Neil joined Goldman in 2008 and oversees research coverage across oil and gas, utilities, midstream, metals and mining, and clean technology, while also leading coverage for large cap energy equities. Carly joined Goldman in 2016 and covers U.S. utilities. She previously covered SMID cap refiners and was a member of the integrated oils & refiners team. With energy earnings season wrapping up, we wanted to reflect on key takeaways. We were fortunate to host Neil and Carly, whose coverage and breadth of knowledge made for a fascinating discussion.
 
In our discussion, Neil first provides a detailed overview of key trends driving market performance, highlighting a shift from a broad sectoral view to a more focused approach on stock selection and performance dispersion. He emphasizes the significant performance differences among companies based on operational execution, capital allocation, and management quality. On the oil and gas side, Neil notes that range-bound commodity prices have reinforced the need for disciplined positioning, with an emphasis on capital efficiency and balance sheet strength. Carly walks us through key trends in utilities, including the surging focus on power demand driven by AI, data centers, and industrial expansion. We explore the growing interconnection between energy and technology markets and its impact on investor behavior, including how generalist investors are increasingly shaping energy sector valuations by focusing on growth and ESG considerations. We discuss the evolving natural gas landscape, the mounting pressure on power prices, and shifting attitudes among tech companies toward energy sourcing, with reliability and speed to market taking precedence over sustainability. We examine trends of investors seeking more access to company boards, the importance of engaged and visible boards in maintaining investor confidence, power price trends, how utilities can sustain investor confidence by tying equity raises to accretive growth opportunities, the role of power forward curves, best practices for managing earnings calls, and more. We greatly appreciate Neil and Carly for sharing their time and perspectives.
 
For additional insights from Neil, we previously had the pleasure of hosting him on COBT in September 2022 (episode linked here).
 
To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted that the 10yr bond yield has plunged to its lowest level (~4.2%) of President Trump’s second term. Bond markets are growing increasingly concerned that Canadian, Chinese & Mexican tariffs will lead to retaliatory measures against the U.S. which could impact/slow U.S. economic growth. He noted that bonds are now dialing in three interest rate cuts for 2025, and that on the broader equity market front, equities have become increasingly more volatile. He discussed the big intraday volatility on Tuesday in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (~750-point intraday swing) and that the S&P 500 was down ~3% over the last week (due to souring investor sentiment) and was approaching technically oversold territory. On the crude oil market front, WTI price slid to ~$68/bbl this week (approaching low-end of its 6mo trading range) due to OPEC+ unexpectedly signaling its intention to begin unwinding long-held oil production cuts, beginning in April. If OPEC+ does follow through with oil production increases, as planned, then it’ll further widen the 2025 global oil surplus unless its offset by yet unannounced Iranian sanctions by the U.S. On the Energy equity front, the YTD performance dispersion in the Energy sector, and especially

Today we had the honor of welcoming back our good friend Dr. Dan Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, Chairman of CERAWeek, and Pulitzer Prize-winning author of “The Prize” and more recently “The New Map.” He is widely recognized as one of the foremost experts on energy, geopolitics, and the global economy and his achievements and contributions to the energy industry are immense. We were delighted to have an hour of Dan’s time to hear his latest insights on the evolving energy landscape and to preview key themes and discussions at CERAWeek, which is kicking off in just under two weeks.
 
This Tuesday, Dan’s paper, co-authored with Peter Orszag and Atul Arya, was published in Foreign Affairs titled “The Troubled Energy Transition: How to Find a Pragmatic Path Forward” (linked here). Dan also recently co-authored an article titled “The importance of US LNG for economic growth and the global energy transition” (linked here). In our conversation with Dan, we explore key themes from both pieces, including the challenges of balancing energy security, economic growth, and the global energy transition. We ask Dan for his perspective on today’s complex geopolitical environment, the influence of the current U.S. administration on energy and regulation, and global energy competition, including the divide between developed and developing nations, where economic growth and energy access remain a top priority. We touch on key topics and speakers at CERAWeek, including new discussions on trade and industrial policy, the future of aviation fuel, Saudi Aramco’s experience with solar, and the growing momentum behind fusion energy, just to name a few. Dan shares insights into the historical context of today’s energy transition, emphasizing that it is an energy addition rather than a transition, along with misconceptions about how transitions unfold and the evolving role of critical minerals in global energy policy. We discuss the potential for a resolution in the Russia-Ukraine war, its implications for commodity markets and geopolitical strategy, and the broader complexities of managing volatility in today’s rapidly shifting energy landscape. As always, it was our pleasure to visit with Dan and we appreciate his thoughtfulness and optimism for the future of energy. Thank you, Dan, for joining us!

Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that broader equity markets seem to be entirely focused on AI-related news this week. He noted that rumors earlier this week that Microsoft was cancelling data center leases have slammed the stock prices of IPP & Electrical Providers. NVIDIA reports Q4 results after Wednesday’s close, which will set the tone for equities (AI Tech & IPPs) through the end of the week. On the crude oil market front, over the last week WTI price has sunk ~$3/bbl ($69/bbl) on several factors, chief among them being growing optimism of a potential Ukrainian ceasefire. Offsetting this potentially bearish oil news is a growing belief that OPEC will delay April scheduled production increases to 2H’25. He rounded out the conversation by highlighting that the focal story in Energy equities this week is BP’s Capital Markets Day (set for Wednesday, details linked here). He noted that BP has previously indicated that the theme for their Capital Markets Day will be a “fundamental reset of strategy” and that investors aren’t going to settle for small changes, rather, they’re demanding a wholesale retreat from renewables, significant non-core asset sales and a total refocus on fossil fuels. Jeff Tillery also joined and

Today we had two stellar guests for a COBT discussion focused on Germany’s significant upcoming election on February 23. We had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Dr. Lars Schernikau alongside Dr. Daniel Stelter. Lars is an energy economist, commodity trader, entrepreneur, and the author of “The Unpopular Truth about Electricity and the Future of Energy.” We have known Lars for a few years now and reached out to him for advice on an expert voice on the German elections, economy and overall macro outlook. He recommended Daniel and we were thrilled to get them both to join us. Daniel is an acclaimed macroeconomist and strategy consultant and his background includes 20 plus years as Senior Partner and Executive Committee Member at Boston Consulting Group. More recently, he founded the think tank “Beyond The Obvious.” We were delighted to visit with Lars and Daniel.
 
We covered a lot of territory in our conversation starting with asking Lars and Daniel for background on whether the upcoming election is likely to bring meaningful economic or policy reforms and probing its broader implications for Germany’s economic trajectory. They shared their unfortunately low expectations for significant change, pointing to Germany’s ongoing economic decline, which has been exacerbated by policy decisions during COVID, including heavy spending and regulatory shifts, and further strained by high energy prices, energy scarcity, and deindustrialization driven by the country’s aggressive transition to renewables and more recent closure of their nuclear plants. We explore Germany’s debt-to-GDP ratio as a strategic advantage, though constrained by debt brake laws, potential reforms to reallocate funds from subsidies and social programs toward more productive investments, hidden liabilities that significantly increase Germany’s actual debt burden, European debt dynamics, the Euro, and speculation on whether the U.S. will prioritize strengthening Germany’s economic resilience or focus on attracting German industries to America for lower energy costs. We touch on potential future scenarios, including the possibility for Germany to delay coal plant closures or access domestic gas reserves, the U.S.’s vested interest in supporting Germany and the EU to maintain geopolitical stability, and the increasing political polarization in Germany. We also discuss how China’s long-term strategic planning in EVs, batteries, and raw materials has outpaced European efforts, the strategic implications of sanctioning Russia, and much more. It was a candid look at the challenges and opportunities facing Germany and Europe and we can’t thank Lars and Daniel enough for sharing their time and thoughts with us.
 
Mike Bradley started us off by highlighting that broader equity markets seem to be focused solely on Trump-Trump-Trump policies, whether that be recent talks between Russia/U.S. on a Ukrainian peace deal or reciprocal tariff threats. He noted that there’s little in the way of market moving economic data this week which might allow broader equity markets to continue gravitating higher. Meta’s stock price has been up twenty consecutive trading days (an equity market record) and NVIDIA will be reporting quarterly results next week, which could create a lot of volatility and set the tone for the Technology sector in the coming weeks. On the crude oil front, he discussed rumors that OPEC might look to delay oil production increases (120kbpd) that were scheduled for April. The recent pullback in crude oil price also seems to be grounded in optimism for a breakthrough in the Ukrainian war. On the natural gas front, European natural gas price is trading at ~$15/MMBtu, down ~$2/MMBtu over the last few weeks, on optimism the EU will allow a more flexible gas storage refill this year. European gas storage levels are 44% full versus the 5-year average of 54% full, which provides a bit of a gas price floor heading into summer. He w

Today we were delighted to welcome the Honorable Lisa Raitt, Vice-Chair of Global Investment Banking at CIBC, for an insightful discussion focused on the implications of recent U.S.-Canada trade developments. Lisa joined CIBC Capital Markets in 2020 following an eleven-year tenure in the Government of Canada. Her distinguished career includes serving as Deputy Leader of the Official Opposition and the Conservative Party of Canada, as well as serving as Minister of Natural Resources, Minister of Labor, and Minister of Transport. We were thrilled to host Lisa and hear her valuable perspective on the evolving trade dynamics between the U.S. and Canada.
 
In our conversation, we explore the Canadian view on President Trump’s recent comments regarding tariffs and Canada’s auto manufacturing industry, along with the broader implications for U.S.-Canada trade relations. We discuss Canada’s political landscape, including Prime Minister Trudeau’s decision to step down after losing party support, the Conservative Party’s growing momentum under Pierre Poilievre, and Canada’s economic challenges and growth concerns. We touch on the unifying effect trade tensions have had on Canadian political and business communities, the potential for retaliatory measures, the need for more power generation, transmission, and distribution to support Canada’s economic growth, and intra-Canada trade complications that impact Canada’s competitiveness. Lisa provides insight into the impact of the Canadian dollar and interest rates, how currency fluctuations affect key sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, and sports, the deep economic and familial ties between the U.S. and Canada, whether ongoing trade disputes could fundamentally alter the relationship between the two countries, and more. We are very thankful to Lisa for sharing her time and perspective.
 
Mike Bradley started off the show by highlighting that President Trump’s new tariffs and tariff threats are increasing volatility, but that for the most part, bond and equity markets have been moving sideways. He noted January CPI & PPI will be reported over the next two days which could create added market volatility for bonds and equities. If both inflation reports print cooler-than expected, it will likely lead to intensifying pressure from Trump for the FED to cut interest rates at the March FOMC Meeting. On the crude oil market front, WTI price has rallied this week to ~$73/bbl and crude oil time spreads are pointing to a physically tight oil market. Oil price continues to be impacted by on/off tariff threats and continued OPEC production curtailments but was aided this week on news that Russian oil exports are being impacted by tighter Russian oil sanctions. On the natural gas front, U.S. natural gas prompt price has rebounded to ~$3.50/MMBtu on colder weather and the 12-month natural gas strip is now trading above $4.00/MMBtu. BP indicated on their Q4 call that at current U.S natural gas prices, they were contemplating picking up gas rigs “now” which is a new development. He also noted that European natural gas price was trading at ~$17/MMBtu (~$100/bbl oil equivalent) because European gas storage is draining faster than expected due to colder winter weather and poor renewable performance/utilization. He ended by flagging Equinor’s recent strategy shift (significant reduction in renewables capex thru 2030) and also noted that BP is calling for a “fundamental reset” of their strategy at their Capital Markets Day (Feb 26th). Robert Kester added his thoughts on AI’s dominance in global discourse, highlighting this week’s high-profile AI Summit in Paris and different global approaches to AI, including the U.S.’s free-market stance, Europe’s push for regulation, and China’s state-backed AI expansion.
 
We hope you all enjoy the discussion with Lisa as much as we did. Our best to you all – and to our friends up north, let’s work this out, eh!

It’s a big week in Houston with NAPE in town, and we were thrilled to welcome our good friend David Bat, President of Kimberlite Research, for an in-depth discussion of the latest OFS activity, trends, and technologies. David joined Kimberlite in 2015 and holds over 30 years of experience spanning upstream, power, and oilfield research. Kimberlite is a global oil and gas market research and consulting firm that gathers insights from more than 20,000 hours of annual interviews with industry professionals to analyze market trends and benchmark performance for oilfield equipment and service providers. We were excited to hear David’s perspectives on the evolving OFS landscape.

In our conversation, David provides background on Kimberlite’s unique approach to gathering high-quality data from E&P operators and oilfield service users worldwide. He explains how their methodology offers deeper insights into technology adoption, service quality, and operational performance and walks us through key slides from a presentation (full version linked here). We explore recent technological advancements including rotary steerable systems improving drilling efficiency, self-oriented perforating guns enhancing completion effectiveness, and advancements in electric submersible pumps. We discuss how digitalization, software applications, and AI-driven analytics are reshaping oilfield operations as well as trends in frac technology, oilfield electrification, and shifts in fuel choices. David shares factors driving operator recommendations and highlights the contrast between North American and international markets, the potential for unconventional growth in Argentina, Australia, and the Middle East, the resurgence of offshore developments, and the challenges that prevent certain innovations from gaining widespread traction. We explore broader key industry themes, including consolidation trends in oilfield services, how company culture influences service provider success, the growing role of mobile power solutions across both oil and gas and non-energy sectors, and AI’s role in data aggregation, market intelligence, and operational decision-making. We end by asking David for his vision of the oil and gas services industry in the next decade. This is where he makes a great comment about "differentiation and an improving competitive moat" around the best companies. It was a wide-ranging and thought-provoking discussion and we’re very grateful to David for sharing his expertise with us.

It was our privilege today to welcome Philippe Ducom, President of ExxonMobil Europe, for a discussion centered on Europe’s challenges regarding energy policy and overall economic competitiveness. Philippe has been with ExxonMobil for 37 years and began his career as an engineer at the Notre-Dame de Gravenchon Chemical plant in Seine-Maritime. Over the years, he has held a variety of senior positions across manufacturing, business analytics, planning, sales, and marketing, working in Europe, Japan, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. Before being appointed as President of ExxonMobil Europe in 2018, Philippe served as Chairman, CEO, and President of ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia and previously led ExxonMobil Japan as Lead Country Manager. We noticed Philippe’s post, “Red tape is driving investment out of Europe – and threatening the energy transition” (linked here), in October of last year and have been eager to discuss. We were thrilled to host Philippe and learn from his unique perspectives and outlook for Europe.

In our conversation, Philippe provides background on the European Parliament and Commission’s five-year cycle, and why the time to discuss these matters is now with a new 5-year legislative cycle just beginning. We discuss the challenges facing Europe including low growth, declining purchasing power, and lack of industrial competitiveness, as well as recommendations to reduce the regulatory burden. Philippe highlights how the previous Commission’s challenges have included managing COVID-19, helping the Ukrainians, pursuing energy security and trying to attain society's climate goals, all of which has bloated government balance sheets. Philippe shares his perspective on the complexity and inefficiency of Europe’s regulatory and permitting process, his recommendations for immediate actions that would require no cost but yield significant improvements, challenges of operating or opening new industrial facilities in Europe and he provides an update on the European chemicals and refining sectors. We examine the structure of the EU, cultural differences in the reliance on markets in the U.S. versus Europe, the importance of free markets and risk-taking to drive innovation and competitiveness, and ExxonMobil’s increased engagement with public policy and public discussions overall. We cover country-specific energy mix decisions among EU member states, how recent geopolitical events have exposed the importance of energy policy and gas infrastructure, Europe’s approach to energy regulation, the growing role of natural gas and nuclear energy in Europe’s energy mix, and the shifting dynamics of gas supply and infrastructure post-Ukraine invasion. We also explore the impact of Europe’s carbon border adjustment mechanism and the notion of extraterritorial regulations, how the U.S. IRA could offer valuable lessons for Europe, and much more. We ended by asking Philippe for his vision for Europe’s energy landscape in the next decade comparing two scenarios, one where Europe continues on its current regulatory path versus one where pragmatic policies are put in place. It was a wide-ranging and insightful discussion.