WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday..

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

We hope all of you that tune in or read Super-Spiked know that we try our hardest to be non-partisan and present views from what we refer to as an equity analyst’s mindset, which means it does not matter what we personally think about an issue, we are just trying to make the right call. But this week we will confess that we are excited about the new energy team that has been proposed by president-elect former president Donald Trump with North Dakota governor Doug Burgum for Secretary of Interior and Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright for Secretary of Energy. President Trump has also proposed creating a new National Energy Council that will be headed by Governor Burgum that will look to co-ordinate a whole-of-government approach to energy policies.

We will apologize in advance that we are likely to sound far more partisan than we prefer. For those of you listening that either serve or have served in Democrat administrations—or that simply were not happy with how the recent election turned out—please know that we highly value you as a subscriber and we appreciate our ongoing engagement with those of you in that camp that we regularly dialogue with.

The appointments of Governor Burgum and Mr. Wright signify a return to an approach to energy that puts abundance, reliability, security, and affordability at its core and an “all of the above” approach to harnessing American energy resources and technology. We would contrast this with the prior administration’s emphasis on addressing climate change, which we see as a subsidiary issue within energy and should not be the centering policy point that comes with a climate activist agenda. The “climate only” focus of recent years that took hold in the aftermath of COVID was a motivating factor for the creation of Super-Spiked and our eventual un-retirement and joining Veriten.

Chris Wright in particular has been outspoken via his Bettering Human Lives report (here). The report beautifully articulates why we use energy in the first place: to better human lives. Super-Spiked and Bettering Human Lives share a common worldview and motivating spirit.

In this week's video podcast we will discuss how re-prioritizing energy abundance, reliability, security, and affordability differs from the “climate only” agenda of the past several years from the perspective of energy equities. Our written post from last week, which we would encourage you to read, addressed various macro and policy issues around energy scenario analysis, power, new energies, and oil markets (here).

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This week we provide some initial thoughts on the U.S. election, the bulk of which was decisively declared on election night itself. We regularly emphasize that we aim to bring an equity research analyst’s mindset to evaluating the energy sector. That means we are simply trying to make the correct call on what we think will happen—not what we personally wish would happen or hope will happen. And we will do our best to stick with that in this video podcast, though when it comes to emotionally charged topics like elections, we’d have to admit that some amount of wish casting and personal opinion will creep in.

In terms of Super-Spiked subscribers, we are going to guess that many of you, perhaps even a majority, will be pretty excited about the election results. But we also take a lot pride in the fact that we have a substantial contingent of subscribers that were hoping for a different outcome. The world is a better place for all of those viewpoints. And we thank all of you, those that agree with us and those that disagree, for your ongoing constructive engagement. As we repeatedly say, we are looking for the pushback to our views. It makes us better analysts.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

But when it comes to the big picture outlook for the energy sector, we want to remind everyone that the structural macro trends unquestionably transcend micro politics. This is something we wrote about in our July 27, 2024 Super-Spiked, Does the US president’s party impact the energy macro results? (here). At a high level, the answer is a firm “no.”

Clearly individual companies and specific projects can be impacted as we have seen via the lack of approval for various pipeline projects or the LNG permit pause or the granting of tax credits to various new technologies. So yes, a specific company can be impacted by who wins. But at the big picture level, we believe the mega trends triumph over micro politics. Moreover, as we will show with the last 2 elections, various sectors did not perform as conventional wisdom expected.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

Amidst the geopolitical and macro turmoil, we take a step back this week to turn back to how companies can think about outperformance through all the volatility. One can’t be frozen and simply wait for a calmer or better time to materialize. No one should be sitting around waiting for an easy bull market to emerge.

Long-time Super-Spiked subscribers will know that we are long-running advocates for companies focusing on profitability and a fortress balance sheet. This week we will start the process of spending some time on the "G" word: growth. Growth became a 4-letter word for investors after the surge in CAPEX during the Super-Spike era and subsequent US shale boom led to profitless growth--something we have spent a lot of time discussing in prior posts.

And let us be clear, profits and balance sheet health remain the priority. That said, there is no doubt investors will always side with companies that can grow versus those that cannot grow at a given level of profitability and balance sheet strength. The trick is to hit the trifecta: growth, returns, and balance sheet strength. Moreover, for especially the upstream portion of the industry where asset life is finite--oil and gas fields naturally deplete--it is critical to adequately reinvest back in the business if a company is to persist as a going concern.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week we continue the theme of normalization. The 2020-2023 period of “urgent energy transition,” “peak oil and gas demand,” and ESG hysteria we think is fading. It is being replaced with what we would call “normal” supply/demand/price volatility concerns. The biggest issue right now facing oil markets has been uncertainty on the outlook for China in particular. Going back to the super-cycle days of 20 years ago, we have long looked at copper markets to provide insights into China, given China is over 50% of copper demand. A noticeable gap has opened between weak crude oil prices and more resilient copper. Historically, the gap has closed with crude following the direction of copper. We shall see if history repeats.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

We are using the occasion of our 50th Super-Spiked video podcast to provide thoughts, lessons learned, and new perspectives gained from the first 49 videopods, 90 written posts, and what is now nearly 3 years of publishing Super-Spiked content. As always, we are especially appreciative of both the positive and constructive feedback from all subscribers; we really do love hearing from you. Our glass half-full world view sees energy narratives and conversations slowly but surely becoming more reasonable and less focused on extremist singular goals. There is a growing recognition that until you solve for how everyone on Earth will some day become energy rich, you will never solve sub-goals in areas like the environment or climate. We continue to believe geopolitical imperatives will be the driver of new energy technologies and sources for large population centers that are not blessed with abundant crude oil resources.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week we provide the third installment of our August series on “30 Years of Perpetual Transition” with a look at a number of noteworthy geopolitical and policy developments that have occurred. A key conclusion is that some events that were expected to be impactful were not, while others that had less fanfare did have a bigger impact. Some countries had grand openings that resulted in dramatically higher oil or gas supply. Others, not so much.

Two weeks ago we discussed some of the different macro drivers that have changed over the course of our career (here). Last week we focused on sectors, business models, and strategy shifts (here). All of it is to point out that energy markets are forever changing. Energy transition has become an unfortunate and loaded term that most people would define as meaning a transition out of fossil fuels and into renewables over an arbitrarily short time frame like 2050. We do not agree that definition of energy transition is happening or would be desirable from the perspective of human prosperity. But there is a need for industry executives, investors, and policy makers to recognize that energy is in perpetual transition and that one needs to always be looking forward with a focus on the important drivers of change and to not let mis-guided and ill-informed rhetoric cloud judgements.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week we continue our series of "30 Years of Perpetual Transition" with a focus on how various energy sectors and business models have evolved. As a reminder, we recognize the term "energy transition" has become a loaded term, which most people now take to mean the idea that the world will be transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewables, over some arbitrarily short time frame like by 2050. We do not agree that this version of “energy transition” is on-track to happen or that it would be desirable from a human prosperity standpoint.

But that does not mean nothing is changing. In fact, over the course of our 30-year career a ton of stuff has changed. Last week we focused on the energy macro with a closer look on big changes to the relative importance of various regions to oil demand (here). This week we will take a look at the major energy sub-sectors and give examples of how business models and risk taking have evolved.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

But that does not mean nothing is changing. In fact, over the course of our 30-year career a ton of stuff has changed. And we have little doubt that the next 30 years will NOT look like the last 30 years. The macro has changed, sectors and company strategy have changed, business models evolve, new technologies and sources or location of energy supply emerge, demand changes, which stocks and sectors perform best changes. Everything is constantly transitioning. So to reiterate, we do not subscribe to what most people today mean by “energy transition,” as we expect all forms of energy to grow in coming decades. But under the hood, energy markets are constantly transitioning, and we do wish to better understand the direction the world is headed.

Today’s video is the first of our new series and will focus on “30 Years of Perpetual Transition” in the energy macro. Next week we plan to turn to the various energy sectors and company strategy. In other videos, we will look at geopolitics, policy, and the environment.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.