WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

This week we wanted to address two questions that have come up from our recent posts and videos. The first on why are we not more pound-the-table bullish on crude oil after noting how inexpensive it is versus a bunch of other commodities. The second question is what kind of capital return could work is on what kind of “yield vehicle” could be possible for shale pure-plays that do not want to sell to a larger company and where diversification wouldn’t make sense.

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⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

This week we will have some fun with Bloomberg charts as it relates to the crude oil macro. We noted in our The Good, The Bad, and The Misunderstood Amidst Major Macro Cross Currents written post from two weeks ago (here) that crude oil remains a critically important energy source albeit with conflicting cross currents that are both bullish (US shale maturity tailwinds) and bearish (China slowdown headwinds, OPEC+ supply increases). Whatever one’s view of oil, it is still a huge driver of sentiment toward the energy sector and of course Energy’s weighting in the S&P 500 is driven by the largest oil and gas companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, etc.

One thing is clear from all the charts, oil looks inexpensive to gold, copper, and refining margins and is at the low end of its recent band to Henry Hub natural gas and TTF. Oil is the big laggard and it is casting a pall on Energy’s S&P 500 weighting, which has sunk back to a dismal 3% of the S&P 500 versus a Russia-Ukraine high of 5% and its pre-2015 range of 8%-12%. The question is whether oil and oil equities are values or value traps. As a spoiler alert, we are not sure we are actually going to be able to definitively answer that today, and the answer in part depends on one’s time horizon. The short-term looks to be more challenging, whereas over the long run we do not believe “the end of oil” is anywhere near.

To be clear, over the remainder of this decade, we are more optimistic on growth in power generation—US and global—natural gas demand and for that matter other power generation energy sources like solar + batteries and non-OECD coal. Equities favorably exposed to those trends should perform accordingly. But for the Energy sector broadly speaking to regain a much larger S&P weighing, oil is still the king.

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* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

We continue our series of “long takes” amidst the macro mess we are slogging through and wanted to hit upon a couple of observations coming out of a surprisingly interesting quarterly earnings season that we think are relevant as corporates and investors think through long-term implications and opportunities.

The first comes courtesy of Diamondback Energy: Is US shale oil peaking? And if it is, what does that mean for the energy macro. The second comes from Next Era Energy which made some interesting remarks about the relative economics of various generation sources juxtaposed against massive US power demand growth. The first two points then lead to the obvious question of how should companies think about business evolution, M&A and strategy during a period of uncertainty and turmoil to best position themselves for the decade ahead. For investors, who and what do you want to own?

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

We wanted to follow up on the Special Edition episode of this week’s Close of Business Tuesday video podcast where we interviewed Mark Lashier, the CEO of Phillips 66. P66 is in the midst of a proxy battle with Elliott Advisors. I will refer everyone to that episode (here) as well as the published materials from both the company (here) and Elliott (here) for more information. At Super-Spiked, it is our self-imposed policy to not discuss individual companies and so this is not P66 dedicated episode. What we are looking to do though is discuss a few topics about how we think about corporate strategy including (1) being diversified vs a pure play, (2) when it makes sense to restructure and split apart and when it doesn’t, (3) when does external activism make sense, and (4) how to be your own internal activist.

We are in a macro environment where a lot is changing in terms of the outlook for China, the increasing maturity of U.S. shale oil, faster expected power generation and the role of different energy sources to meet that growth. Geopolitics remain front and center. We expect oil demand to grow but it’s going to be choppy. Natural gas, LNG (liquefied natural gas), and NGLs (natural gas liquids) are expected to grow much faster, but what is the right business model to participate? Will upstream companies need to start looking overseas again? And if so, who and how is the best way to do that? There are a lot of moving parts.

As companies consider potentially meaningful strategic actions, there is the risk of a disconnect between what some will think is the best course of action in the near term versus the evaluation of risk/reward opportunities in the long term. As companies take steps, some will be second-guessed and the specter of rising shareholder activism will be there.

To be clear, different analysts will have different takes on this topic and what companies should do. There is no one-size-fits-all answer to any of this stuff. It can be frustrating or perhaps annoying that luck and timing can matter a lot, but so does good governance and management. No one bats 1.000. But structural underperformance is neither sustainable nor OK either.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

We will start with an apology to those of you that prefer the written notes but with the Super Vol nature of this tariff trade war and the dramatic market moves, we are going to do another short video. We tried our best to avoid “hot takes” and stick with how to think about what it means for the Energy sector over the long run—i.e., the “long takes.” For companies and investors that are not trying to day trade this crazy market, there are some fundamental questions about how to think about the macro, CAPEX, M&A, and what to do with so much uncertainty.

We would like to wish everyone that celebrates a Happy Easter. We too will be enjoying the long weekend and will publish our next Super-Spiked in two weeks.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

We had intended to publish a written note this week that we thought had some interesting analysis on energy sub-sector profitability over what we consider to be the 2021-2024 mini-cycle. But President Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” Rose Garden event squashed those publication plans. OPEC decided to add to the noise with its own surprise announcement that it would add additional volumes. As of the April 3 close, energy equities, oil commodities, and the broader stock market have been hit hard and we have pivoted this week to producing a short video podcast to share our thoughts. With the major caveat that we are one day into whatever this potential new paradigm is—and given our aversion to providing “hot takes” on the news of the day—we wanted to offer some initial long-term perspectives on macro developments, i.e., “long takes” so to speak.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week's video is a follow up to last week's written post titled "What Does Energy Pragmatism Mean for Climate & Sustainability" (here). We wanted to expand on some of the points in our own voice and also address various questions and pushback we have received.

Our key messages this week: (1) Energy pragmatism means a return to energy's natural hierarchy of needs, rather than the inverted version that pretended anyone anywhere prioritizes carbon emission reductions over energy availability and reliability; (2) investment flows into non-fossil fuel energy sources are not impacted by western world virtue signaling, as the climate bubble actually peaked way back in 2021; (3) the other 7 billion people in developing markets hold the key to how energy markets will evolve in coming decades, not us Lucky 1 Billioners.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com..

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

This past week we attended CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston. Pragmatism, balance, and realism have been the themes uttered by just about every single speaker. Some have long been in this camp. Others are new. All are welcomed. We are still embracing inclusivity at Super-Spiked.

Some will say we shouldn’t be so forgiving to those people that 5 minutes ago were calling for an end to fossil fuel investment and are now suddenly seeing the light in regards to reliability, geopolitical security, and affordability. You, our loyal subscribers, know where we have been standing all along. It is our mission that the dialogue, understanding, and macro energy policies recognize energy’s natural hierarchy of needs, where all anyone anywhere at all times cares about is can I use energy right now. Without energy access there is nothing. So in that spirit, we welcome everyone to the world of pragmatism.

Before we get into our Top 10 takeaways from CERAWeek 2025, we would like to offer our congratulations to Dan Yergin, Atul Arya, and everyone at S&P Global for putting on a world class show. We learned a ton and caught up with many friends and colleagues from around the world. There is no conference like CERAWeek that brings together all of the global energy industry in one place.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com..

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

We follow up on last week’s post that heralded The Rise of the Energy Pragmatism Era (here). No more inverting the hierarchy of needs with non-sensical net-zero-is-all-that-matters energy outlooks that would subjugate vast swaths of humanity to ongoing poverty. We have moved into an exciting and even fun new period for all things energy—new, old and everything in between. Oil & gas is converging with power. Technology and energy are converging in the sense that you can't have the former without the latter. Billion-person scale economies in the developing world are doing whatever it takes to bring wealth to their citizens—all of which is synonymous with energy growth. And for those regions it will be a focus on reliability, affordability, and geopolitics that will motivate an increasingly diverse mix of energy sources and technology. This is not about looking backwards...it's about the path forward.

This week's video will start our discussion on new opportunities that could arise as energy pragmatism spreads, in particular to regions that had been most in “climate only” mode. What regions have been left behind that deserve a fresh look? How can we best meet the substantial energy needs of ALL 8 billion people on Earth? Real economics are returning, not unsustainable rich-country government handouts to the wealthiest amongst us. Welcome to The Energy Pragmatism Era!

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

The firehose of news flow out of the new Trump administration since, and frankly preceding, his inauguration has not stopped. While US presidents throughout history seem to elicit strong reactions, President Trump inspires a degree of hysteria from those that oppose him and a do-no-wrong deference from his supporters. What we find is that whatever the issue is—it could be domestic spending, sanctions, or tariffs—when someone has an obviously dripping disdain for Trump, it weakens the efficacy of their argument, even if partly accurate. The opposite is also true. We find both extremes to be pretty unhelpful in sorting through what matters.

By the time this video podcast is published, President Trump will have only been in office for 4 weeks: there are still 3 years and 48 weeks to go—permanent freak out mode is not sustainable or healthy! In this week's video, which we recorded a little earlier than usual due to some travel this past week, we address a number of questions that have arisen. We are going to do our best to use our equity research analyst's mindset to assess policy actions taken or proposed. This means our only goal is to make the right call and provide the best insight we can for the companies we advise. We will keep our answers focused on how it all might impact the long-term energy macro and corporate strategy.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.