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This week we check-in on how our “Top 10 Tactical Questions for 2025” published on January 25, 2025 (here) are faring.

MACRO ORIENTED

(1) Will energy’s S&P weighting increase in 2025?

Original answer: Yes.

Mid-year progress: Wrong so far, but narrative discussed is on-track.

(2) Will we see energy outlooks from high-profile organizations stop treating “net zero” as if it were the defining issue?

Original answer: Change is coming, but will take time and we’ll get wishy washy language in 2025.

Mid-year progress: This is on-track to happen more quickly than we anticipated.

(3) Can oil become great again in 2025?

Original answer: No, Super Vol not super-cycle remains our view.

Mid-year progress: Correct so far.

GEOPOLITICS & POLICY

(4) Will the IRA be repealed, reformed, or left alone?

Original answer: Reformed.

Mid-year progress: Probably we are technically correct in that the IRA was not repealed, but it was so meaningfully gutted that it very much feels like it was repealed.

(5) Will Trump make the Arctic great going forward?

Original answer: Yes.

Mid-year progress: Trump Administration is giving the Alaska/Arctic appropriate attention.

SUB-SECTOR OUTLOOKS

(6) Will power-exposed sectors lead the way in 2025?

Original answer: Yes.

Mid-year progress: Correct so far.

(7) What new technology area are you watching more closely to break-out in 2025?

Original answer: Autonomous driving.

Mid-year progress: The “robo taxi” market is nascent but starting to expand to more areas.

M&A

(8) Will we see an acceleration of O&G firms enter power markets and, if so, how?

Original answer: Yes and organic.

Mid-year progress: To be determined.

(9) Does the Venture Global IPO signal the tide is turning on energy sector capital formation?

Original answer: Yes.

Mid-year progress: Wrong so far.

(10) Will we see a surprising mega merger in energy?

Original answer: Yes.

Mid-year progress: Hasn’t happened yet.

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⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

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* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

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