WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week we provide a video update on our view about the need for "energy transition" as a concept to itself transition to one that is focused on meeting the energy supply needs of the 7 billion people that live outside of the United States, Canada, Europe, and Japan.

We discuss our ongoing concerns about risks to financing needed energy supply, which is now materializing in Africa. We highlight that energy transition will likely be approached by countries as meeting a hierarchy of needs, with availability coming first followed by affordability followed by geopolitical security followed by environmental and climate considerations. With that said, an analysis of commodity supply/demand indicates there is a role for both efficiency and new technologies to play in areas that lack sufficient oil, natural gas, or coal supplies.

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Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and interact directly with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week we present an update on "Where Are We In The Energy Cycle" with a focus on (1) sector profitability; (2) financing for traditional energy; and (3) the need to “extend the runway” by which companies can generate advantaged returns and shareholder distributions.

The ROCE cycle remains fundamentally healthy with 4Q2022 sector ROCE staying "above the regression line" so to speak despite falling oil prices since 2Q2022. A key objective for companies and investors will be to avoid the "ROCE quadrilateral of death" which is explained in the video.

Financing risk continues to increase as an expanding list of European financial and insurance firms declare they will no longer support new oil & gas developments. The demise of Credit Suisse we believe could accelerate the disappearance of European finance from traditional energy. In the United States, the regional banking crisis sparked by Silicon Valley Bank's failure raises uncertainty about U.S. regional banks in general, a key source of financing especially for smaller traditional energy firms.

Finally, we conclude with a discussion of how to think about the inherent need in a naturally depleting business to "extend the runway" by adding inventory, projects, or assets at a time investors absolutely want "no new spending" yet its still early in the CAPEX cycle and cost of capital is high and competition is low.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week's Super-Spiked video podcast is a discussion on risk taking and future capital availability for traditional energy companies of all shapes and sizes. If you are a public company, we appreciate that it is really difficult to buck the austerity demanded by shareholders. However, an inherently Super Vol macro backdrop and that very hesitancy toward new capital formation in the sector will undoubtedly lead to interesting risk/reward investment opportunities that some will look to capitalize on. Companies that look best positioned today to take advantage of potential opportunities include those that are privately-owned, though not necessarily private equity backed, as well as national oil companies (NOCs).

Finally, we discuss our view that EU climate & energy policies as well as the Glasgow Alliance For Net Zero (GFANZ) is likely to put downward pressure on capital availability for traditional energy. In my view, no company in any region is immune from these pressures and understanding the direct or trickle down effects to your bank and insurance group is critical.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

A videopod that captures the last 3 written posts on Super-Spiked and what can be learned from the global coal sector when evaluating strategies and investments in oil and gas.

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This is part 2 of the videopod series that dives into my January 1, 2023 post, Five Big Questions At The Start of 2023. I look to answer the question: What does Tesla’s valuation correction mean for EV growth projections?

* First, I take a look at bubble stock cycles and what has been the toggle from the bull phase of fundamental growth, free money, and climate ideology to the bear phase that has been hit by energy pragmatism, the end of free money, and growth deceleration.

* Next, I look at the underlying assumptions for “peak” oil demand, which rests on a combination of expected fuel economy improvements along with “hockey stick” EV growth forecasts.

* Most notably, there is zero evidence of a step change improvement in either fuel economy gains or, more broadly, global oil demand efficiency relative to GDP growth.

* On EVs, the very real and dramatic growth in Tesla sales over the past seven years has led to hockey stick EV adoption assumptions. While I expect EV sales to grow in the years and decades ahead, I believe the hockey stick assumptions will be revised sharply lower in coming years.

* As $TSLA’s outsize valuation premium versus legacy OEMs diminishes, the significant valuation envy, which has contributed to EV growth strategies at legacy auto makers, will similarly be scaled back, in my view.

* In the absence of a step change improvement in oil efficiency gains coupled with what I believe will be downside revisions to EV hockey stick growth forecasts, I would expect oil demand assumptions to be revised higher (relative to the “peak” demand expectations). I believe this will lead to traditional energy regaining “terminal value” credit as the date of its anticipated demise gets pushed to the right.

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.

A deep dive into question #1 of my “Five Big Questions At The Start of 2023”, which was how to think about ROCE volatility in the short-term versus the longer-term structural ROCE upcycle I believe is unfolding.

A pdf of the slide deck used in the video can be downloaded from the link below and a link to last week’s written post follows.

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* Exhibit sources: All exhibits were previously published at https://arjunmurti.substack.com on January 1, 2023 (Five Big Questions at the Start of 2023) or July 23, 2022 (The Pursuit of Vikings). Sources include Bloomberg, S&P CapitalIQ, and Super-Spiked.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.

In this video I address the age-old question: “Are we at peak for traditional energy?” This is a question always asked after seemingly every rally irrespective of the broader backdrop: structural bull, structural bear, cyclical or seasonal rally. If you want to skip the 17 minute video, the short answer (SPOILER ALERT) is “No, I do not believe we are anywhere near the peak of the structural energy upcycle.”

I would also like to wish everyone a Happy Holiday season. This will likely be the last Super-Spiked post for 2022. See you in 2023!!!

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* Exhibit sources: All exhibits were previously published December 3, 2022 (Where Are We in the Energy Cycle, A Framework) or December 10, 2022 (Attracting Capital Back To Energy: Q&A and Clarifications). Sources include Bloomberg, S&P CapitalIQ, and Super-Spiked.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.

A discussion on attracting capital flows back to traditional energy, which I believe is critically needed if we are ever to move to a healthier energy evolution era from the messy energy transition quagmire we find ourselves in.

Note: I have started publishing the Videopods on my YouTube channel the day before Super-Spiked is published given the need to copy the link from the YouTube feed into Super-Spiked.

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* Exhibit sources: All exhibits were previously published on November 5, 2022 ($XLE Resurrection) or November 12, 2022 (Metaverse Meets Universe). Sources include Bloomberg, S&P CapitalIQ, and Super-Spiked.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.

A framework for investors and Oil & Gas companies in navigating the madness that is US/Canada/EU energy public policy and so-called “climate actions”. I also take a look at “anti-woke ESG” funds, which I don’t think is the answer to the issues with virtue-signaling ESG.

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.

A follow-up on last week's post discussing former Exxon CEO Lee Raymond's unique approach to leadership and ensuring Exxon was a dominant S&P 500 leader during his tenure. What Would Lee Raymond Do in the messy energy transition era we currently are in? Click on the blue button above to hear the audio only in the Substack player or double click on the red button to watch the YouTube video version.

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.