In The Know with George & Evan

Is housing tax reform still political poison? With a fragmented vote, dissatisfied under-55s, and a 7-point drop in institutional trust, the calculus has shifted.

Guest: Kate Jones, Non-Executive Director at Amplify. Learn more here: https://www.amplifyaus.org.

Chapters(00:00) - Intro

(02:14) - The budget of the century: housing takes centre stage(05:48) - Why 2026 isn't 2019 on tax reform

(09:14) - Reform takes hard yards: the Hawke and Howard lessons

(13:08) - The X-factor: supply, falling prices, and voter reaction

(17:39) - The Australian Wellbeing Index: a 58 out of 100

(22:09) - Hope, the broken promise, and the under-55 cohort

(28:48) - Good policy is good politics: the Terry Mackenroth principle

(33:12) - The Coalition's two-front problem

(35:35) - Trust collapses: a 7-point drop driven by under-55s

(37:10) - Sport, AI, and the void where national vision should be

(39:53) - Cost of living beats inflation orthodoxy

--Subscribe ➡️ https://youtube.com/@InTheKnowAUJoin Amplieo+ to the unlock the latest insights and exclusive videos in In The Know at: https://amplieo.substack.com/s/in-the-knowFollow In The Know on Instagram https://instagram.com/intheknowau

Watch on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2L0QuZY1jOcg1WXgiaviy4?si=a31a8e59fe034ad2

Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-know-with-george-evan/id1887046702In The Know with George & Evan is an Amplieo Original podcast produced by Amplieo Media Group in partnership with leading Australian polling company DemosAU.Learn more about Amplieo ➡️ https://www.amplieo.com

Capital Brief's Matthew Franklin join In The Know to discuss the DemosAU's new national poll which points to a rapidly fragmenting electorate, where economic pressure, global instability, and leadership perceptions are reshaping the balance between Labor, the Coalition, and a surging but constrained One Nation.

Chapters

(00:00) - Intro

(00:08) - Global crises reshape the political environment

(01:00) - Poll results: Labor decline and a three-way contest

(02:30) - Cost of living as the dominant political force

(04:00) - Leadership perceptions and voter dissatisfaction

(06:00) - Why Albanese’s ratings are under pressure

(08:30) - Governing through economic constraint and uncertainty

(11:00) - Trump’s unpopularity and alliance instability

(14:00) - Strategic risks for the political right

(17:00) - Coalition reset and early signs of recovery

(20:00) - Competition between Coalition and One Nation

(23:00) - Electoral volatility and fragmentation

(25:30) - Lessons from One Nation’s 1998 surge

(29:00) - The challenge of building a durable third force

(32:00) - Global populism and the limits of incumbency

(35:00) - Nationalism, manufacturing, and political strategy

(38:00) - The fiscal reality behind economic nationalism

--Subscribe ➡️ https://youtube.com/@InTheKnowAUJoin Amplieo+ to the unlock the latest insights and exclusive videos in In The Know at: https://amplieo.substack.com/s/in-the-knowFollow In The Know on Instagram https://instagram.com/intheknowauWatch on Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/2L0QuZY1jOcg1WXgiaviy4?si=a31a8e59fe034ad2Listen on Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-know-with-george-evan/id1887046702In The Know with George & Evan is an Amplieo Original podcast produced by Amplieo Media Group in partnership with leading Australian polling company DemosAU.Learn more about Amplieo ➡️ https://www.amplieo.com

Australia’s electoral landscape is undergoing a structural realignment, with new modelling suggesting the Coalition’s traditional dominance on the right is collapsing and being replaced by a rapidly ascending One Nation, raising a central question: is this a temporary disruption or a durable reshaping of the party system?

Chapters

(00:00) - Intro

(01:11) - Defining MRP and how the model works

(03:47) - Why electorate-level modelling matters in a fragmented system

(08:03) - What the model says: Labor majority, One Nation surge, Coalition collapse

(10:00) - Comparing results to previous modelling and the speed of change

(11:26) - Where seats are shifting: regional and outer suburban battlegrounds

(14:03) - The decisive electoral terrain: outer suburbs and swing belts

(16:14) - Demographic drivers behind One Nation’s rise

(18:36) - Momentum and limits: how far can One Nation grow?

(20:05) - The Coalition’s decline in metropolitan Australia

(23:41) - Scenarios for the future of the party system

(29:45) - Lessons from international political disruption

(33:22) - Risks on the left: potential fragmentation beyond Labor

(35:15) - Key electorates as indicators of national trends

(38:34) - Capricornia and the consolidation of One Nation heartland

(40:16) - Candidate effects vs structural trends

--Subscribe ➡️ https://youtube.com/@InTheKnowAUJoin Amplieo+ to the unlock the latest insights and exclusive videos in In The Know at: https://amplieo.substack.com/s/in-the-knowFollow In The Know on Instagram https://instagram.com/intheknowauWatch on Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/2L0QuZY1jOcg1WXgiaviy4?si=a31a8e59fe034ad2Listen on Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-know-with-george-evan/id1887046702In The Know with George & Evan is an Amplieo Original podcast produced by Amplieo Media Group in partnership with leading Australian polling company DemosAU.Learn more about Amplieo ➡️ https://www.amplieo.com

The South Australian election result raises a deeper strategic question: is the rise of One Nation a transient protest vote, or evidence of a structural realignment reshaping Australian politics at both state and federal levels?

Chapters

(00:00) - Intro

(00:15) - Setting the frame: polling, politics and the SA election

(01:15) - The credibility test for pollsters and what got validated

(02:20) - Methodology, innovation and the limits of polling accuracy

(03:37) - One Nation’s geographic footprint and why it matters federally

(05:31) - Did One Nation meet expectations? Interpreting the primary vote

(07:53) - Competition on the right: independents and fragmentation risk

(08:12) - Seat-level dynamics and the emerging parliamentary map

(09:29) - The real contest: who becomes the opposition

(10:49) - What drove the result: leadership vacuum and voter movement

(13:15) - The Hanson factor and leadership-driven voting behaviour

(14:35) - State vs federal dynamics and issue salience gaps

(17:03) - Why Labor still dominated: incumbency and Liberal instability

(18:45) - Coalition voter defection: immigration, leadership and cost of living

(20:06) - Economic pressure as a driver of populist disruption

(21:25) - Ideology vs behaviour: what voters say vs how they vote

(23:44) - Labor’s cross-spectrum appeal and the centrist consolidation

(25:04) - Is this really a shift to the right—or a competence signal?

(26:20) - Lessons for major parties: legitimacy of the One Nation vote

(28:46) - The strategic dilemma: how to respond to Hanson

(30:06) - The federal battleground: outer suburbs and regional seats

(30:26) - Lessons for One Nation: preferences, independents and limits

(31:48) - Explaining MRP: how modern polling models work

(33:26) - Federal projections and what they suggest about the next election

(34:20) - Closing reflections and what to watch next

📥 JOIN Amplieo+ on Substack for early access to episodes, exclusive videos, and bonus content: https://amplieo.substack.com

LEARN more about Amplieo: https://www.amplieo.com

📲 FOLLOW In The Know on socials

LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/amplieo

Instagram: https://instagram.com/InTheKnowAU

YouTube: https://youtube.com/@InTheKnowAU