In The Know with George & Evan

DemosAU's latest MRP of about 9,700 voters puts Labor on 84 seats and a majority, while One Nation's rural and regional vote falls seven points. Stronger preference flows put the Coalition ahead in Groom and Herbert and in both seats One Nation holds, Farrer and New England.

Discussion topics

(00:00) - Hook

(02:28) - Labor heads for a majority as One Nation slips

(06:06) - Why One Nation is losing ground in the regions

(15:25) - Why preference flows now favour the Coalition

(22:19) - The Coalition claws back regional Queensland

(29:04) - Capricornia and why the race for second matters

(36:00) - Rural independents fight back against One Nation

(41:50) - Could One Nation lose both seats it holds today?

(48:01) - Hunter narrows as the Coalition leads in Bendigo

The latest DemosAU poll finds two thirds of voters back the right to opt out of social media algorithms, 47 per cent would rather cut tobacco taxes than fund more enforcement, and 60 per cent support using super for a house deposit. Federally the Coalition slips back to third on 20 per cent, while Victoria tightens to 52–48 ahead of the state election.

DISCUSSION TOPICS

(00:00) - Hook

(01:08) - The latest federal poll

(02:34) - Coalition vs One Nation: a fluid vote

(06:18) - How Newspoll compares

(08:11) - The margin of error explained

(13:04) - Tobacco tax cuts vs law enforcement

(21:27) - Opting out of the algorithm

(24:55) - Trump weighs in on the algorithm laws

(28:47) - Super: early access and contributions

(38:44) - The Victorian election poll

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ABOUT THE SHOW

In The Know with George & Evan is your source for smart, balanced conversation for Australia's political and policy minds, and for anyone serious about understanding where the country is heading. Drawing on their expertise in polling, research, and politics, George and Evan keep you in the know on political trends and public sentiment - without the sensationalism or outrage.

In The Know is an Amplieo Original show hosted by DemosAU. Learn more about Amplieo at https://www.amplieo.com

One Nation now polls in the low-to-mid 20s in every mainland state, but the vote went backwards in four of the five polls run across August and early September and rose only in Western Australia. With New South Wales and Victoria both heading to elections, the harder question is conversion: which urban seats are genuinely winnable, how far Liberal preferences leak, and whether Pauline Hanson chases the balance of power or the government benches.

Discussion Topics:

(00:00) - Hook

(00:54) - Intro

(01:27) - Why One Nation won Secret Harbour so decisively

(04:23) - What Miranda in 2013 says about by-election swings

(10:48) - One Nation slides in four states but climbs in WA

(17:40) - Why One Nation polls higher federally than in WA

(20:05) - The five numbers that made Secret Harbour winnable

(23:40) - Camden, Melton and the seats One Nation is eyeing

(32:10) - Where Liberal preferences leak 70-30 to One Nation

(41:26) - Balance of power or the Lodge for Pauline Hanson

Early access to In The Know and emailed insights are available exclusively for Amplieo+ members.

In The Know is an Amplieo Original show hosted by DemosAU. Learn more about Amplieo at https://www.amplieo.com

Pauline Hanson's rating among women fell from 39 per cent positive in June to 26 in August, while her rating among men barely moved. One Nation's primary dropped five points to 24 in the same period. No party gets to 50 per cent plus one off half the electorate, which leaves the open question of whether this is one bad month or the first sign of a ceiling. George Hasanakos works through what sits behind the fall. Georgia de Mestre of Premier National then joins for Victoria, three months from polling day with the Coalition leading 55-45.

Discussion Topics:

(00:00) - Hook

(01:07) - Intro

(01:41) - Hanson's approval falls seven points in two months

(03:14) - The slide is coming entirely from women

(07:10) - Less migration, but not a monoculture

(11:54) - The DV comments that did the damage

(15:20) - Why saying what you think stops at 50% plus one

(19:33) - The Coalition creeps back into second

(23:13) - Labor's floor and the fight for young men

(26:58) - Victoria: the Coalition leads 55-45

(28:48) - Jess Wilson and the end of Liberal infighting

(33:02) - Over-55s move back to a party that can win

(35:24) - You don't win One Nation voters by chasing them

(41:20) - The Coalition polls 37 per cent among women

Early access to In The Know and emailed insights are available exclusively for Amplieo+ members.

In The Know is an Amplieo Original show hosted by DemosAU. Learn more about Amplieo.

New Senate modelling from the same 9,300-voter MRP cuts the Coalition to 18 senators, with Matt Canavan and Jacinta Price both exposed on their own tickets. That leaves a One Nation government commanding 16 senators in a house of 76, and revives the blocked-supply arithmetic that produced the 1975 crisis.

Show Notes:

DemosAU: the Senate MRP and methodology

Discussion Topics:

(00:00) - Hook

(01:15) - How the Senate actually works

(03:07) - Taking the MRP into the upper house

(04:57) - Labor and the Greens on exactly half

(07:05) - Why a One Nation government falls five senators short

(09:30) - The Whitlam parallels and the 1975 precedent

(14:04) - What a double dissolution would deliver

(21:53) - Canavan, Price and the senators at risk

(38:04) - Why Hanson will not lead from the Senate

(42:17) - What it would take to fix it

Early access to In The Know and emailed insights are available exclusively for Amplieo+ members.

In The Know is an Amplieo Original show hosted by DemosAU. Learn more about Amplieo at https://www.amplieo.com

New MRP modelling of 9,300 voters puts Labor on 68 seats, One Nation on 60 and the Liberals on 13, with six crossbenchers deciding who governs. With every major party polling in the 20s, small shifts in the national vote now produce wild seat swings.

Topics

(00:00) - Hook

(02:22) - Labor 68, One Nation 60 in a knife-edge house

(05:42) - Two exclusive scenarios for who forms government

(09:16) - Aston and the Liberals' eastern Melbourne node

(14:07) - Bendigo and Labor's rural and regional problem

(17:17) - Cook, Dobell and the outer metropolitan front line

(24:45) - Moncrieff and the fight for Queensland's coasts

(27:40) - Hastie and Taylor's seats fall on these numbers

(32:27) - Where Pauline Hanson would run for the lower house

(36:53) - How small vote shifts produce huge seat changes

Subscribe to our channel on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@intheknowauIn The Know with George & Evan is your source for smart, balanced conversation for Australia’s political and policy minds, and for anyone serious about understanding where the country is heading. Drawing on their expertise in polling, research, and politics, George and Evan keep you in the know on political trends and public sentiment - without the sensationalism or outrage.Stay In The Know on socials:Instagram ► https://www.instagram.com/@intheknowauLinkedin ► https://www.linkedin.com/company/intheknowauWant to listen to more episode of In The Know? Subscribe:Spotify ► https://open.spotify.com/show/2L0QuZY1jOcg1WXgiaviy4?si=c8910ed311704c09Apple ► https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/in-the-know-with-george-evan/id1887046702In The Know is an Amplieo Original podcast. Learn more about Amplieo at https://www.amplieo.com

A clear 61% of Australians agree with Pauline Hanson that immigration should be substantially reduced. Agreement ends there: just 25% back her monoculture pitch, and new DemosAU polling shows her own approval, not her vote, is what now caps One Nation.

Chapters

(00:00) - Intro

(01:24) - Why One Nation's vote slipped after the press club

(03:18) - Monoculture pitch costs Hanson beyond immigration

(05:47) - Personal ratings set One Nation's real ceiling

(11:36) - The Coalition's road back and the Howard lesson

(20:41) - The press club lines that hand Labor a campaign

(25:08) - The electoral maths to get to 76 seats

(30:54) - Clacton, Count Binface and the calculus of risk

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In The Know with George & Evan is an Amplieo Original podcast produced by Amplieo Media Group in partnership with leading Australian polling company DemosAU.

Learn more about Amplieo ➡️ https://www.amplieo.com

Labor's usual advantage with women has flipped into an 11-point gap behind One Nation, with older women moving right and younger women drifting to the Greens. Is this a Pauline Hanson moment or a durable realignment?

Chapters

(00:00) - Intro

(01:13) - Labor's gender gap flips as women back One Nation

(08:12) - Why Pauline Hanson wins over older women voters

(15:00) - Bondi, cost of living and Labor's voters

(19:06) - One Nation overtakes the Coalition on the right

(24:28) - Burnham, Starmer and the UK warning for Labor

(32:23) - Can the big centre-left parties still survive

(38:27) - Albanese, chaos elections and the binary choice

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Join Amplieo+ to unlock the latest insights and exclusive videos in In The Know at: https://amplieo.substack.com/s/in-the-know

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Stay In The Know:

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In The Know with George & Evan is an Amplieo Original podcast produced by Amplieo Media Group in partnership with leading Australian polling company DemosAU.

Learn more about Amplieo ➡️ https://www.amplieo.com

If a vote for one party is really a vote for another, where do those voters go? DemosAU modelled four removal scenarios from an 8,000-respondent MRP, and the answer reshapes the case for a merged right... at least for One Nation.

Chapters

(00:00) - Intro

(01:38) - Why the two-party vote keeps sliding since 2007

(07:03) - Modelling what your vote really means in 2026

(13:05) - A merged right adds up to 37, not 48 per cent

(16:01) - The Coalition and One Nation are stronger apart

(21:21) - When a One Nation vote really elects Angus Taylor

(27:45) - What the four scenarios do to Labor and the Greens

(33:51) - Can the right actually merge, and who leads it

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Join Amplieo+ to unlock the latest insights and exclusive videosin In The Know at:

https://amplieo.substack.com/s/in-the-know

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Stay In The Know:

Instagram - www.instagram.com/intheknowau

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Apple Podcasts -https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-know-with-george-evan/id1887046702

In The Know with George & Evan is an Amplieo Originalpodcast produced by Amplieo Media Group in partnership with leading Australian polling company DemosAU.

Learn more about Amplieo ➡️ https://www.amplieo.com

Labor's negative gearing overhaul is a deliberate pitch to under-34s, while Farrer's 40% One Nation primary reframes the strategic question on the right of politics.

Chapters

(00:00) - Intro

(01:52) - Labor's housing tax reform targets younger voters

(07:10) - Labor's broken promise reframes the election risk

(11:15) - Immigration leads, but renters blame the tax code

(13:54) - Greens and One Nation voters share economic anger

(17:24) - Farrer shows One Nation can win conservative seats

(20:35) - UK Labour halved as Reform leads any new election

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Join Amplieo+ to unlock the latest insights and exclusive videosin In The Know at: https://amplieo.substack.com/s/in-the-know

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Stay In The Know:

Instagram - www.instagram.com/intheknowau

YouTube - https://youtube.com/@intheknowau

Apple Podcasts - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-know-with-george-evan/id1887046702

In The Know with George & Evan is an Amplieo Original podcast produced by Amplieo Media Group in partnership with leading Australian polling company DemosAU.

Learn more about Amplieo ➡️ https://www.amplieo.com