Low-carbon or blue ammonia has seen growing numbers of projects announced, and is perceived as at least a stepping stone towards a carbon-free ammonia market in the future. It is a complex topic however, leading to industry uncertainty, and has raised key questions that Argus has been addressing for our clients. In our latest podcast we tackle these questions and uncertainties, assessing the opportunities and hurdles facing this sector.

Join Andrea Valentini, Principal and Tim Cheyne, VP – Fertilizers as they start with analysis of why production of low-carbon ammonia will need a level of certification, verification and a methodology that will give clarity to the whole value and supply chain. In terms of technology we look at the benefits of adopting autothermal reforming (ATR) technology for ammonia production rather than steam methane reforming (SMR), and assess what role existing conventional ammonia plants will play. We discuss carbon capture, and to what extent future blue ammonia production will be based on enhanced oil recovery (EOR) – and related levels of carbon credits. 

We then move to the customer view, and our analysis of how certification systems could develop. We discuss whether this could delay investment in blue ammonia projects, where we expect to see the fastest blue ammonia investments – and why. We then pivot to the question of pricing and whether it will be structured relative to grey and green ammonia. We finish by exploring a long-term scenario where green ammonia could trade at a premium compared to blue ammonia (even considering relative carbon intensities), due to customer priorities and requirements.