International report

The Kurdistan Workers Party, the PKK, has announced the end to its more than forty-year fight against Turkey, a conflict that claimed more than 40,000 lives. But the declaration, called historic by Turkish officials, is being met by public skepticism with questions remaining over disarmament and its calls for democratic reforms.

Upon hearing the news that the PKK was ending its war and disarming, Kurds danced in the streets of the predominantly Kurdish southeast of Turkey. The region bore the brunt of the brutal conflict, with the overwhelming majority of those killed being civilians, and millions more displaced.

From armed struggle to political arena

"It is a historic moment. This conflict has been going on for almost half a century," declared Aslı Aydıntaşbaş of the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank.

"And for them [the PKK] to say that the period of armed struggle is over and that they are going to transition to a major political struggle is very important."

The PKK, designated as a terrorist organisation by the European Union and most of Turkey’s Western allies, launched its armed struggle in 1984 for Kurdish rights and independence. At the time, Turkey was ruled by the military, which did not even acknowledge the existence of Kurds, referring to them as “Mountain Turks.”

Nearly fifty years later, however, Turkey is a different place. The third-largest parliamentary party is the pro-Kurdish Dem Party. In its declaration ending its armed struggle and announcing its dissolution, the PKK stated that there is now space in Turkey to pursue its goals through political means.

However, military realities are thought to be behind the PKK’s decision to end its campaign. “From a technical and military point of view, the PKK lost,” observed Aydın Selcan, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region.

“For almost ten years, there have been no armed attacks by the PKK inside Turkey because they are no longer capable of doing so. And in the northern half of the Iraqi Kurdistan region, there is now almost no PKK presence,” added Selcan.

Selcan also claims the PKK could be seeking to consolidate its military gains in Syria. “For the first time in history, the PKK’s Syrian offshoot, the YPG, has begun administering a region. So it’s important for the organisation to preserve that administration.

“They’ve rebranded themselves as a political organisation.” Turkish forces have repeatedly launched military operations in Syria against the YPG. However, the Syrian Kurdish forces have reached a tentative agreement with Damascus’s new rulers—whom Ankara supports.

Kurdish leader Ocalan calls for PKK disarmament, paving way for peace

 Erdoğan’s high-stakes gamble

For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is trailing in opinion polls and facing growing protests over the arrest of his main political rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, on alleged corruption charges, this could be a golden opportunity. “This is a win for Erdoğan, no doubt,” claimed analyst Aydıntaşbaş.

Along with favourable headlines, the PKK’s peace announcement offers a solution to a major political headache for Erdoğan. The Turkish president wants to amend the constitution to remove term limits, allowing him to run again for the presidency.

The pro-Kurdish Dem Party holds the parliamentary votes Erdoğan needs. “Yes, Erdoğan, of course, will be negotiating with Kurds for constitutional changes,” said Aydıntaşbaş.

“Now we are entering a very transactional period in Turkish politics. Instead of repressing Kurds, it’s going to be about negotiating with them. And it may persuade the pro-Kurdish faction—which forms the third-largest bloc in Turkish politics—to peel away from the opposition camp,” added Aydıntaşbaş.

However, Aydıntaşbaş warns that Erdoğan will need to convince his voter base, which remains sceptical of any peace process with the PKK. According to a recent opinion poll, three out of four respondents opposed the peace process, with a majority of Erdoğan’s AK Party supporters against it.

For decades, the PKK has been portrayed in Turkey as a brutal terrorist organisation, and its imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, is routinely referred to by politicians and much of the media as “the baby killer.” Critics argue the government has failed to adequately prepare the public for peace.

“In peace processes around the world, we see a strong emphasis on convincing society,” observed Sezin Öney, a political commentator at Turkey’s PolitikYol news portal. “There are reconciliation processes, truth commissions, etc., all designed to gain public support. But in our case, it’s like surgery without anaesthesia—an operation begun without any sedatives,” added Öney.

Turkey looks for regional help in its battle against Kurdish rebels in Iraq

Political concessions?

Public pressure on Erdoğan is expected to grow, as the PKK and Kurdish political leaders demand concessions to facilitate the peace and disarmament process.

“In the next few months, the government is, first of all, expected to change the prison conditions of Öcalan,” explained Professor Mesut Yeğen of the Istanbul-based Reform Institute.

“The second expectation is the release of those in poor health who are currently in jail. And for the disarmament process to proceed smoothly, there should be an amnesty or a reduction in sentences, allowing PKK convicts in Turkish prisons to be freed and ensuring that returning PKK militants are not imprisoned,” Yeğen added.

Yeğen claimed that tens of thousands of political prisoners may need to be released, along with the reinstatement of Dem Party mayors who were removed from office under anti-terrorism legislation.

Turkey's Saturday Mothers keep up vigil for lost relatives

Erdoğan has ruled out any concessions until the PKK disarms, but has said that “good things” will follow disarmament. Meanwhile, the main opposition CHP Party, while welcoming the peace initiative, insists that any democratic reforms directed at the Kurdish minority must be extended to wider society—starting with the release of İmamoğlu, Erdoğan’s chief political rival.

While the peace process is widely seen as a political victory for Erdoğan, it could yet become a liability for the president, who risks being caught between a sceptical voter base and an impatient Kurdish population demanding concessions.

Célia Belin of the European Council on Foreign Relations tells RFI that Donald Trump’s administration is treating Europe less as a partner and more as a rival. In backing nationalist movements and undermining multilateral institutions, it is exporting a political mode of operation that risks fracturing European unity.

The impact of Donald Trump's second term in the White House is being felt far beyond US borders. Observers say this ripple effect can be seen across Europe, not just in policy but in the continent's political culture itself.

For Dr Célia Belin of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the stakes are nothing less than the future of European liberal democracy.

In her latest ECFR report, MAGA Goes Global: Trump’s Plan for Europe, Belin warns that what might appear to be chaotic decisions from the Oval Office are, in fact, part of an ideological project.

“There’s actually a strong direction, a clear destination,” Belin told RFI. “Trump, surrounded by loyalists and MAGA Republicans, is ready to implement his plan – to push back on liberal democracy, and to push back on Europe."

According to her, he sees Europe as “an extension of his political enemies – liberals and progressives” and views its institutions as bureaucratic hurdles rather than allies in global leadership.

Culture wars without borders

Trump’s administration – bolstered by figures including Vice President JD Vance and media mogul Elon Musk – has also made overtures to Europe’s far right.

They have voiced support for Germany’s far-right AfD party and France's Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, including on Musk's social media platform X (formerly Twitter) – helping to disseminate nationalist and populist rhetoric across the continent.

“We’re seeing a systematic attack on the liberal model that Europe represents,” said Belin. “This ‘Trumpian wave’ has fired up nationalist opposition in Europe, even if it hasn’t created a united front."

‘Free Le Pen’: US conservatives rally behind French far-right leader

Non merci to MAGA

However, some of the European political parties that share Trump’s scepticism of liberal institutions are treading carefully when it comes to embracing his brand of politics.

While leaders such as Viktor Orbán in Hungary openly welcome MAGA-style backing, others see it as a double-edged sword.

Following her recent legal conviction, Le Pen received support from MAGA-aligned figures. But her party responded with conspicuous silence.

“They don’t want or need this Trumpian support,” Belin noted. “Their political strategy is not about aligning with MAGA America – it’s more French, more sovereignist."

Embracing Trump too openly could risk undermining years of effort to mainstream the National Rally’s image. “Nationalists are realising that now – it brings fuel to the fire, yes, but it also complicates their own domestic positioning," said Belin.

Trump's first 100 days: Revolution or destruction? The view from France

Europe responds

French President Emmanuel Macron was among the first European leaders to sound the alarm on the changing nature of the US-European alliance. 

"I want to believe that the United States will stay by our side but we have to be prepared for that not to be the case," he said in a televised address to the nation in March.

I January, in a speech to French ambassadors, he said: "Ten years ago, who could have imagined it if we had been told that the owner of one of the largest social networks in the world would support a new international reactionary movement and intervene directly in elections, including in Germany."

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz followed suit, criticising Musk’s decision to give the AfD a platform just weeks before Germany's federal elections.

However, Belin points out that the European response is still taking shape. “It’s brand new as a phenomenon,” she said. “Europeans were prepared to be challenged on trade, on security – even on Ukraine. But this cultural challenge is unprecedented.”

Meloni positions herself as Europe’s ‘trump card’ on visit to White House

Still, as Belin notes, Trumpism is not a winning formula everywhere. “Turning fully Trumpist would derail Marine Le Pen’s strategy. It’s not a winning strategy in France,” she said. “But in more insurgent political systems, it might be."

And there is concern too that Trumpism could outlive Trump himself.

“There’s been a transformation in the perception of America’s global role,” Belin said. “And that will stick around. It will be pushed by some of the nationalist parties in our countries. That is the Trumpist legacy”.

As Turkey slipped further down in the latest Press Freedom Index, the country's besieged opposition and independent media are voicing concerns that some of the tech giants are increasingly complicit in government efforts to silence them.

While protests continue over the jailing of the Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, his account on social media platform X has been cancelled.

X, formerly Twitter, claims it was in response to a Turkish court order. Dozens of Imamoglu supporters have also had their accounts suspended, drawing widespread condemnation.

The controversy is stoking broader concerns over the stance of the world's tech giants towards Turkey.

"These international tech companies find it well to keep good relations with the Turkish authorities because their only evaluation is not just on the side of democratic standards," said Erol Onderoglu of the Paris-based Reporters without Borders.

"But there is another challenge which is based on financial profit. The country's advertising market is very vibrant regarding social media participation," he added.

Google is also facing criticism. The US tech giant was recently accused of changing its algorithms, resulting in a collapse in people accessing the websites of Turkey's independent media and therefore depriving the companies of vital advertising revenue.

Turkish radio ban is latest attack on press freedom, warn activists

Fewer alternative voices

Until now, the internet has provided a platform for alternative voices to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who controls around 90 percent of the mainstream media.

"Google has a very big effect when you search the web for news, the most visible ones are always from pro-government media or state media. But the omission of independent media from results is just a mystery right now," said Volga Kuscuoglu editor of Bianet English edition.

Turkey's independent media is battling arrests and fines by the Turkish authorities. Reporters Without Borders' latest index on press freedom saw Turkey slip further down the rankings to 159 out of 180 countries.

Koscuoglu fears the government is seeking to extend its control over the media to the internet.

"We don't know whether there was any political pressure as no reports have been made about that," said Koscuoglu. "But the government has passed several laws in recent years and those were aimed to bring large social media under control in Turkey.

"You wouldn't expect Google to be excluded from this control; so yes, there could be political influence on that decision."

How Turkish voters are beating internet press clampdown before polls

Threat to reduce bandwidth

Duvar, one of Turkey's largest and most prominent independent news portals, closed its doors in March, citing a loss of revenue following the collapse in internet hits, which it blamed on Google's change to algorithms.

Google was approached to comment on the accusations but did not reply.

However, a spokesperson speaking anonymously to Reuters news agency said that any algorithm changes were simply aimed at enhancing the search facility.

Internet experts believe the Turkish government has controlled the world's tech giants by making them liable to Turkish law.

"The government, in addition to warnings, financial penalties and an advertisement ban, was going to impose a bandwidth restriction," said Yaman Akdeniz, a co-founder of Turkey's Freedom of Expression Association.

"The government was going to throttle the social media platforms that didn't comply...up to 50 percent of their bandwidth access was going to be reduced, and that was going up to 90 percent of their bandwidth being restricted from Turkey.

"Social media providers didn't want to risk that," he concluded.

Press freedom concerns as Ankara forces internet giants to bow to Turkish law

'Extinction of pluralism'

With some of Turkey's independent media organisations claiming their web activity has dropped by as much as 90 percent in the past few months, many are struggling to survive and are laying off journalists.

The experience of Turkey could well be the canary in the mine.

Onderoglu of Reporters Without Borders claims the plurality of the media is at stake.

"Extinction of pluralism within the media, which means that you'll have just one echo from a country which is the official line, is extremely dangerous," he warned.

"This is the main concern not only in Turkey but in dozens of countries around the world," he added.

"Journalists are trying to make viable another view within society, another approach from the official one."

Questions over Google's power as effective gatekeeper to the internet and what critics claim is the lack of transparency over the search engine's algorithms are likely to grow.

Meanwhile, the algorithm changes leave Turkey's besieged independent media, already battling arrests and fines, fighting for financial survival.

Increasingly tense relations between South Africa and the United States have been marked by trade threats, diplomatic expulsions and deepening divisions over global conflicts. But despite the pressure, South Africa is not backing down on key principles. Foreign Affairs Minister Ronald Lamola tells RFI their “dynamic and evolving” relationship must be nurtured – yet he insists not everything can be negotiated.
 

Relations have been turbulent since Donald Trump took office in January. Cooperation on trade, health, defence and diplomacy has suffered after several of Trump’s executive orders.

The US is South Africa’s second largest trading partner, but exports to America now face 30 percent tariffs.

On 7 February, Trump issued an executive order to resettle white South African refugees, saying the country’s leaders were doing “some terrible things, horrible things”.

US media say the first group of Afrikaner (white South Africans) "refugees" is due to arrive as from 12 May. South Africa expressed its "concerns" to the United States on 9 May and reiterated that "allegations of discrimination are unfounded".

On 14 April, South Africa named former deputy Finance Minister Mcebesi Jonas as its special envoy to Washington after ambassador Ebrahim Rasool was expelled.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Rasool was “no longer welcome” in America, calling him “a race-baiting politician who hates America” and Trump.

President Cyril Ramaphosa and Trump spoke on the phone on 24 April in what was described as a cordial exchange. Trump invited Ramaphosa to Washington and suggested he “bring the golfers over”.

South Africa unites against Trump as US freezes aid over land reform

RFI: Where are we at today with the relationship between South Africa and the United States?

Ronald Lamola: The relationship has always been dynamic and evolving, obviously with more challenges since the election of President Trump, particularly with the number of executive orders that are not based on any facts or truths.

In South Africa, the expropriation bills are aimed at redressing the imbalances of the past to ensure there is equitable distribution of all the resources of our country. This is done in line with the constitution, which has got sufficient safeguards against any arbitrary use of power by the executive or by the state.

It is in that context that we continue to engage with Washington because the relationship remains important. Washington is our strategic trading partner, the second biggest after China.

RFI: Is there more going on behind the scenes than we can see? Are relations improving despite the tensions?

Ronald Lamola: Indeed, there are still challenges, but we continue to engage at a diplomatic level.

International Court of Justice hears South Africa's genocide case against Israel

RFI: Is South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice being used as a bargaining chip?

Ronald Lamola: No, it cannot be used as a bargaining chip. This is a matter of principle.

Our history is linked to that of Palestine and, as Nelson Mandela said, the struggle of South Africa is not complete until the Palestinian people are also free. There has been propaganda that Iran or Hamas is paying for these legal fees.

You can check the departmental websites where all reports are recorded. It is the South African government tax money that is paying for this case. There is no other hidden hand paying for the case.

RFI: Can you imagine a scenario where the United States might ask South Africa to drop the case against Israel in order to continue enjoying good relations with Washington?

Ronald Lamola: Unfortunately, I cannot imagine things that I don't know.

RFI: What would South Africa's position be if that were to happen?

Ronald Lamola: I don't want to speculate about anything or any scenarios. We deal with what is in front of us.

As you are aware, in one of the executive orders, this issue of the case has been raised and, also in some of the bills that are before Congress. But this is a matter of principle. It's based on the Genocide Convention. Principles cannot be negotiated.

RFI: Where does the case at the ICJ stand now?

Ronald Lamola: We are waiting for Israel to respond. As you are aware, we filed a memorial last year in June. The case has to take its normal course. The court must decide because the future of the world is dependent on certainty, on a rules-based international order, which is based on international law.

We have to ensure that international law is respected by all. The might cannot always be right.

RFI: South Africa says it will not cut ties with historic allies. President Ramaphosa said that South Africa will not be bullied. Is there a price to pay for standing by your principles?​​​​​​

Ronald Lamola: Nations must respect and abide by the rule of law. We are signatories to the Genocide Convention. We will respect and live by the UN Charter. Obviously, there will be pain that may come with it, but this is the pain we need to pay for the people of the world.

South Africa is a product of solidarity. We would not be free if it was not for the people of the world who suffered and stood in solidarity with us. So, we owe it to the people of the world to ensure that the UN Conventions and the UN Charter are protected and defended.

EU flags stronger partnership with South Africa with €4.7bn investment

RFI: The US is South Africa's second largest trading partner. How can your country absorb the blow of 30 percent tariffs, if they go through by mid-July?

Obviously, it is going to be very difficult and damaging to our economy. We see it also as an opportunity for us to engage in bilateral agreements with the US that are mutually beneficial.

There are South African businesses invested in the US, and also US businesses invested in our country. About 601 companies from the US have invested in South Africa, responsible for more than 150,000 jobs in our country.

It is an important dynamic relationship, which has also brought a lot of technology in our country and improved our economy.

But, we also have to diversify markets. We are glad that the EU is opening its market to work with us and trade with us. We are also looking at other countries to trade with us.

We will, however, continue to engage with the US because we believe the relationship is mutually beneficial and we have to continue to nurture it for the benefit of our two nations.

This interview has been lightly edited for clarity

During the first 100 days of his second term in office, US President Donald Trump has issued a series of executive orders that have unsettled the commodities market and prompted investors to hold off from making new investments in African economies.

In the last three months, Trump has presented the world with “a ding-dong of measures and counter-measures," as Nigerian finance analyst Gbolahan Olojede put it.

With such measures including increased tariffs on US imports from African nations (as elsewhere), this new regime has effectively called into question the future validity of preferential trade agreements with African states – such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows duty-free access, under strict conditions, to the US market for African goods.

"The reciprocal tariffs effectively nullify the preferences that sub-Saharan Africa countries enjoy under AGOA," South Africa's foreign and trade ministers said in a joint statement on 4 April.

Jon Marks, editorial director of energy consultancy and news service African Energy, echoed this climate of uncertainty: “With the Trump presidency lurching from policy to policy, no one knows where they are. And it's very difficult to actually see order within this chaos."

Africa braces for economic hit as Trump’s tariffs end US trade perks

He told RFI he expects long periods of stasis, in which nothing actually happens, when people have been expecting immediate action.

“That's going to be, I think, devastating for markets, devastating for investment. The outlook really is grim," he added.

Commodities

In 2024, US exports to Africa were worth $32.1 billion. The US imported $39.5 billion worth of goods from Africa, the bulk of these being commodities such as oil and gas, as well as rare minerals including lithium, copper and cobalt.

“The focus of the Trump administration is on critical minerals now, particularly in the [Democratic Republic of Congo], which is the Saudi Arabia of cobalt,” said Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project news site.

The US is aiming to build non-Chinese supply chains for its military technology.

“The F-35s, supersonic fighter jets, need cobalt. When they look at critical minerals, they're not looking at that for renewable energy. They're looking at it specifically for weapons and for their defence infrastructure,” Olander explained.

Collateral damage

On 2 April, President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on US imports worldwide, declaring that the US “has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far” and calling this date a “Liberation Day” which will make “America wealthy again”.

Stock markets immediately plummeted as a result of his announcement.

On 9 April, Trump announced a 90-day pause – until mid-July – on these tariffs. Instead, a flat 10 percent rate will be applied on exports to the US.

The exception was China, whose goods face even higher tariffs – 145 percent on most Chinese goods. Beijing retaliated with 125 percent levies on US imports.

According to Olander, most African nations have so far been “insulated from the harsh impact of these tariffs” and from the consequences of what is, in effect, a trade war between two economic giants – China and the US.

“South Africa, which accounts for a considerable amount of Africa's trade with the United States, is much more exposed to the effects of these tariffs than the rest of the continent,” he said.

Africa First

But what if Trump's "America First" agenda was to be copied, asks Kelvin Lewis, editor of the Awoko newspaper in Sierra Leone.

“Just like Trump is saying America First, we should think Sierra Leone First,” he told RFI. “He is teaching everyone how to be patriotic. We have no reason to depend on other people, to go cap in hand begging, because we have enough natural resources to feed and house all 9 million of us Sierra Leoneans.”

He added: “If Africa says we close shop and we use our own resources for our benefit like Trump is telling Americans, I think the rest of the world would stand up and take notice.”

Meanwhile, Trump believes his imposition of these increased tariffs has succeeded in bringing countries to the negotiating table.

“I'm telling you, these countries are calling us up, kissing my ass. They are dying to make a deal. Please, please sir, make a deal. I'll do anything. I'll do anything, sir,” Trump said on 8 April at a Republican Congress committee dinner in Washington.

New markets

Olander believes that the trade war instigated by Trump has resulted in more risks than opportunities for Africa’s vulnerable countries.

“But, there is a lot more activity now diplomatically between African countries and other non-US countries,” he added.

“Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from Ethiopia was in Vietnam, as was Burundi's president. There’s more engagement between Uganda and Indonesia, more trade activity and discussions between Brazil and Africa.”

Foreign ministers from the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) met in Rio de Janeiro on 28 April to coordinate their response to Trump’s trade policy.

However, securing markets for non-US exports is a challenging task. It took Kenya 10 years “of steady diplomacy” to get China to fund the extension of the Standard Gauge Railway to the Ugandan border, according to Olander.

Kenyan president visits China as country pivots away from the US

“Whether it's in China, Indonesia, Brazil or elsewhere, it takes time. Exporting into developed G7 markets means facing an enormous number of hurdles, like agricultural restrictions,” he continued. “Then, in the global south, Angola is not going to sell bananas to Brazil, right?”

“Trump's trade policies have actually been to depress the oil price,” said Marks. “The price has been under the psychologically low threshold of $70 a barrel.

He explains it is because of the demand destruction Trump's policies have placed on global trading.

Demand destruction means that people are not investing, “ Marks said. “It's really a period of wait-and-see.”

“This will affect prices very profoundly. One of the ironies is that although a lower dollar means that African economies should be able to export their goods for more money, a declining dollar amidst market uncertainties means that investors are not going to be rushing to come into Africa.”

Donald Trump’s return to the White House has brought with it a seismic shift in transatlantic dynamics, with rising trade tensions, reduced diplomatic engagement and growing uncertainty over the future of Western alliances. So what has been the early impact of his second term on EU–US relations and how is Europe responding?

With Trump's administration wasting no time in rekindling the “America First” doctrine, this time with fewer diplomatic niceties, tensions over trade, diplomacy and the long-term stability of the transatlantic alliance quickly arose. 

From the imposition of sweeping tariffs on EU goods – 20 percent across the board, covering all exports from France and other member states – to a reduction in support for Ukraine, Trump's early moves have sent a clear message: Washington’s priorities have shifted – and not in Europe’s favour.

Brussels’ response, while restrained, has been firm, and the sense that Europe can no longer rely fully on Washington is taking root.

Trump's tariffs come into force, upending economic ties with Europe

Retreat, rather than reform

One of the most striking aspects of Trump’s second term so far is his rapid dismantling of traditional US diplomatic structures.

Former US diplomat William Jordan warns that the institutional capacity of American diplomacy is being hollowed out. “The notion of America First risks turning into America Alone,” he said.

“Everything that's been happening since 20 January has largely demoralised and damaged the State Department."

There has been an exodus of seasoned diplomats, alongside a wave of politically motivated "loyalty tests" handed out to charities, NGOs and United Nations agencies as part of the State Department’s review of foreign aid – asking them to declare whether they have worked with "entities associated with communist, socialist, or totalitarian parties, or any parties that espouses anti-American beliefs".

European allies rally behind Ukraine after White House clash

The cumulative effect of this threat to the impartiality of America's foreign service, Jordan notes, is a profound erosion of trust – not just within US institutions but among global partners.

“There are worries in the intelligence community that longstanding partners can no longer share sensitive information with the United States,” he added, raising concerns about the durability of intelligence alliances such as Five Eyes, comprising the US, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

Trump’s decision to scale back overseas missions and USAID funding has also left vast vacuums of influence – particularly in Africa, where both China and Russia are stepping in to fill the void.

“It’s not just that it’s being done – it's how it’s being done. Brutally. Recklessly. Slashing and burning institutions that have taken decades to build,” Jordan told RFI.

Amid this weakening of America’s traditional soft power influence, however, Jordan also cautions that the country's soft power strategies have not always been effective, pointing to congressional inertia and overlapping funding mandates which have dulled strategic impact.

Still, he maintains, a haphazard retreat does more harm than reform.

A dressing-down in Munich

Europe’s discomfort was visible in February at the Munich Security Conference, where US Vice President JD Vance delivered a remarkable rebuke to European leaders, accusing them of wavering on democratic values.

The message was harsh, and the delivery even more so – an unprecedented public dressing-down in a diplomatic forum. The reaction in Munich embodied Europe’s growing unease.

European fears mount at Munich conference as US signals shift on Ukraine

“Certainly the language was something that you wouldn't expect,” Mairéad McGuinness, the former EU Commissioner for Financial Stability told RFI.

“This is somebody coming to our house and telling us they don’t like how we run it. It’s not what you expect between friends and allies. Was it a surprise? Maybe not,” she added. “But it’s not normal."

The incident underscored an increasingly assertive US posture under Trump 2.0, and the deepening fissures within the Western alliance, reflected in the new administration's willingness to publicly challenge long-standing relationships.

European allies rally behind Ukraine after White House clash

'Confidence in the US is eroding'

The EU has responded with a measured approach – "how the European Union tends to do its business,” according to McGuinness.

“What is problematic is trying to understand exactly what the US side wants,” she continued. “We’re hearing not just about tariffs, but also about food safety, financial regulation – areas where Europe leads globally."

Rather than caving to pressure, the EU is showing signs of a more confident and coordinated strategic posture – in a similar vein to its response during the Covid-19 crisis and its rapid support for Ukraine following Russia’s 2022 invasion.

One consequence of these shifting diplomatic sands has been a rise in investment in European defence, following the US decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine.

EU Commission chief calls for defence 'surge' in address to EU parliament

With EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announcing that, under the Rearm Europe plan announced by  on 6 March, EU member states can boost defence spending, European arms manufacturers are seizing the opportunity to compete against their US rivals.

While not a wholesale pivot away from the US, it signals a broader awareness that over-reliance on any single partner carries risks.

William Jordan put it bluntly: “Confidence in the US as a reliable partner is eroding, and not just in Europe.”

For him, this moment could present an opportunity for Europe to build a more independent and robust security architecture – one less vulnerable to the whims of any one American president.

US President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office have been marked by unprecedented volatility and deep divisions across the country. 

Praised by supporters for his pledges to "restore faith in government" and "secure borders," his tenure has also provoked widespread concern among Democrats and political analysts, who criticise his erratic style and sweeping executive orders that have disrupted established institutions and international alliances.

Trump's first 100 days: Revolution or destruction? The view from France

The Trump administration has issued over 130 executive orders, including mass dismissals, aggressive immigration enforcement, and withdrawal from climate accords—measures that have had profound social and economic consequences.

Critics warn that such actions erode democratic norms and due process, while grassroots protests and public demonstrations have surged across the country in response to policies widely viewed as damaging to communities and public services.

Trump's first 100 days: Grassroots pick up Democratic slack as 'chaos' unfolds

In this international report, we look ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, with experts suggesting that Trump’s confrontational approach and divisive policies could ultimately backfire on the Republican Party—potentially costing it crucial support.

 

 

 

As Canada heads to the polls on Monday, a historic shift in national identity and foreign policy is unfolding, driven by growing disillusionment with the United States and a renewed embrace of European alliances.

Across Canada there is a strong sense that this crucial election is about more than domestic policy.

It is being seen as a referendum not just on leadership, but on Canada’s place in the world – particularly in terms of its increasingly strained relationship with the United States and a growing desire to forge closer ties with allies in Europe.

“This election really matters,” said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, a Canadian, non-profit polling organisation.

“More than nine in 10 Canadians say it’s more important than the last two elections – and over seven and a half million have already voted early. That’s huge, in a country of just over 40 million."

From Trudeau to Carney

The election follows the resignation of Justin Trudeau in January, after nearly a decade in office.

While once a global liberal icon, Trudeau had seen his domestic popularity plunge, and by the end of 2024 his Liberal Party was trailing the opposition Conservatives by 30 percentage points.

His departure set the stage for Mark Carney, the former Bank of England governor, to step into the political spotlight as the new Liberal party leader.

But it wasn’t just the change in Liberal leadership that shifted the political winds.

“The other main character,” as Kurl put it, “was Donald Trump."

Trump unveils sweeping US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China - EU next?

Trump’s re-emergence on the US political stage – and his increasingly provocative comments about Canada – electrified the Canadian political conversation.

He floated ideas about annexation, referred to Canada as "ripe for reabsorption", and reintroduced aggressive trade rhetoric – all of which triggered a wave of public backlash north of the border.

“Canadians initially dismissed it as Trump being Trump,” Kurl told RFI. “But the more he talked, the more seriously people took it. There was real anger, a sense of betrayal – and the politicians who leaned into that emotion did well”.

Nationalism, the Canadian way

Carney responded with a tone rarely seen in Canadian politics: firm, unapologetic nationalism.

He rejected Trump’s rhetoric outright, reiterated Canada's sovereignty and committed to defending Canadian interests – economically and politically.

“We don’t tend to do overt nationalism in Canada,” Kurl explained. “But this time, it worked.

"We saw a huge swing in the polls – from a 30-point deficit to a five-point Liberal lead today. And that shift is in no small part down to Carney embracing a message of pride and independence."

What’s changed most dramatically is the tone of Canada’s relationship with the US, once its closest ally.

Kurl notes that Canadian travel to the US has dropped significantly in recent months, a reflection of a more widespread cooling of sentiment towards the country's southern neighbour.

“The US was Canada’s best friend – not just its biggest trading partner, but emotionally too. And now people are saying, this just isn’t working."

And for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, this has been a missed opportunity, as he ignored the Trump factor until the campaign was already under way.

For Kurl, Poilievre's recognition of Canadian anger and disappointment with the US came "too little, too late".

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Looking towards Europe

In Carney’s first foreign visit as prime minister, he bypassed Washington opting instead to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.

The symbolism was clear: Canada is looking elsewhere for dependable allies.

That shift is not just diplomatic theatre. The Carney-Macron meeting produced agreements on cybersecurity, clean energy and artificial intelligence, and reaffirmed both countries’ support for Ukraine.

This new strategic alignment has deep roots – particularly in Quebec, where cultural and historical ties to France have given the pivot to Europe added momentum and legitimacy.

“It’s not just short-term crisis management,” said Kurl. “Canada’s been burned before by Trump. During his first term, we saw the renegotiation of Nafta and a lot of anti-Canada trade rhetoric. But nothing really changed – the economy remained heavily tied to the US. This time, there’s a real sense that we need to act, not just wait it out."

That said, a full break with the US is not on the cards.

“There can never be a complete divorce,” Kurl concedes. “Our economies are deeply intertwined, and we share a very, very long border. But there is a renewed focus: Canada must diversify its economic relationships. It can’t afford not to."

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For voters, this election is about who can best protect Canada’s independence, its values and its interests, in an increasingly volatile international environment.

As Kurl said: "Canadians are taking this election very seriously, because they know what’s at stake. The question is no longer just, who should lead us? It’s, where do we go from here?"

The global car industry is facing major upheaval after US President Donald Trump imposed a 145 percent tariff on Chinese imports in early April – the highest so far in the US-China trade dispute.

The tariffs, which apply to dozens of countries including US allies, aim to protect American manufacturing. But they are also making car production and trade more expensive and complicated, especially for automakers and consumers in the US and China.

Bill Russo, CEO of Automobility, a Shanghai-based think tank, said the auto industry has long depended on large, low-cost markets, with China at the centre. He said the new tariffs disrupt this model by raising costs and making it harder for companies using cheaper Chinese production to stay competitive.

US automakers and consumers are likely to face higher costs, he said, while Chinese carmakers will be less affected because they do not rely heavily on the US market.

The US tariffs are also likely to change how the European Union deals with China.

While the EU has already imposed its own tariffs on Chinese goods, mainly electric cars, Beijing and Brussels are now more likely to work together in response to Washington’s “America First” approach.

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Thousands of young people across Turkey are protesting against the jailing of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main rival. Many say they no longer fear prison, claiming they have nothing left to lose.

University students were among the first to take to the streets after Imamoglu was detained last month. They believe his arrest was politically motivated, though the government denies this.

“We are all sick and tired of the oppression that has been going on for such a while, and we are all fed up with it,” said an Istanbul university student who did not want to be named for fear of retribution.

“All these things that happened to Ekrem Imamoglu and all the other political people that are sent to jail, we are just fed up. We can't take it anymore, so we are here to protest against the government.”

For another student, the protests go beyond Imamoglu’s case.

“Everyone realises that it is not just a problem about Ekrem Imamoglu. We have a lot of problems in our country because of the economy, the inflation, because of the justice, because of the femicide, we have a lot of problems with our country,” she said.

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Youth defy fear of arrest

The protests are the largest seen against Erdogan’s government in more than 10 years.

Until now, political apathy, a weak opposition and a harsh crackdown on dissent have left few willing to challenge Erdogan’s AK Party. But the country’s youth are emerging as a key force for change.

“They were really the ones that carried the first protests, they were the vanguards,” said Sezin Oney, a political commentator with Halk TV.

Oney said many young people are losing hope due to widespread nepotism and corruption.

“If you are not connected to somebody, even if you get the best education, then it does not matter; you have to have connections; this is how they are feeling," she said.

"They are striving for certain values; they are describing it as something that has to do with justice, with democracy, everything this government doesn't represent."

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Economy in free fall

Turkey’s youth have grown up in a country where 90 percent of the media is controlled by the state or its allies, and schools are designed to produce what Erdogan once called a loyal, pious generation.

But that goal seems out of reach. “An overwhelming majority of the young people right now in Turkey prefer a pluralistic democratic system to a one-man strong system,” said Can Selcuki, head of Istanbul Economics Research, a polling firm.

Selcuki said the sharp divides between secular and religious youth, once used by Erdogan to hold onto power, are fading as shared economic problems take centre stage. Turkey faces double-digit inflation and high youth unemployment.

“As the economy is spiralling down, these young people find more common denominators in this worsening economy, making identity leverages disappear,” said Selcuki.

“So the bad situation of the economy is bringing these young people together in a more socio-economic level, from a more class perspective.”

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Crackdown on dissent widens

The unrest has now spread to high schools, after the government decided to redeploy tens of thousands of teachers. Pupils in schools across the country have staged rare protests.

Erdogan has reportedly asked his party to investigate the causes of the growing discontent.

For now, the government is vowing to crack down. Court cases have begun against hundreds of protestors, most of them students, with prosecutors seeking up to three-year prison terms.

Many detainees say they were beaten in custody, which authorities deny.

New laws are also being discussed to curb further unrest. “There is a new crime they (the government) are trying to formulate, ‘disturbing the public order.’ When you create this crime, then you can arrest basically anyone,” said Oney.

“But I don't think it will succeed. The thing is especially the youth is thinking they have nothing to lose, they have reached their tipping point. There will be more arrests and more protests, it will be a vicious cycle, unfortunately.”

Turkey is already seeing record numbers of highly educated people leave the country, but many young protestors say leaving is not an option. For them, staying and resisting is the only choice they have left.