International report

With Ankara warning Tehran not to undermine Syria’s new rulers and its ongoing peace efforts with Kurdish rebels, regional rivalry with Iran has been intensifying. However, Turkey’s concerns about potential US military action against Iran over its nuclear energy programme are now providing a rare point of convergence between the two rivals.

After months of diplomatic barbs and threats exchanged between Ankara and Tehran, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, on Wednesday praised his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, for what he described as a “constructive and supportive position” regarding the indirect US-Iranian talks in Oman over Iran’s nuclear energy programme.

The Oman talks aim to avert a possible US military strike on Iran, an option that President Donald Trump has not ruled out. Despite the strained relations with Tehran, avoiding confrontation remains a priority for Ankara.

“Turkey would be concerned for many reasons,” claims Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, who heads the German Marshall Fund’s office in Ankara.

“This would be just another war on Turkey’s borders. Turkey would have to deal with difficult problems, and instability in Iran would almost certainly lead to an additional wave of refugees,” he added.

Kurdish leader Ocalan calls for PKK disarmament, paving way for peace

Turkish diplomatic tensions with Iran have been on the rise, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issuing thinly veiled threats to Tehran, urging it not to interfere in Ankara’s efforts to end the conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged a decades-long campaign for greater minority rights within Turkey.

“Ankara believes that Iran is trying to undermine this [peace] process both in Turkey and in Syria,” observes Serhan Afacan, who heads the Centre for Iranian Studies, a research organisation based in Ankara.

In February, the imprisoned PKK leader, Abdullah Öcalan, called for his organisation to disarm. With the PKK operating from bases in Iraq and having an affiliated group in Syria, Ankara has frequently accused Tehran of using the PKK as a proxy in its regional contest for power and influence. Afacan contends that Ankara fears Tehran still holds sway over the Kurdish rebels.

“Especially in Syria, Iran might try to convince them not to respond positively to Öcalan’s call – this has been Turkey’s main concern,” warned Afacan.

The recent ousting of long-time Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad has deprived Iran of a key ally, while Syria’s new rulers are aligned with Ankara rather than Tehran. A peace agreement between Turkish forces and Kurdish rebels would only deepen Iran’s unease over Turkey’s growing regional influence.

“Turkey is about to end the PKK through its policies both domestically and regionally, and this is causing a kind of panic on the Iranian side,” observes Bilgehan Alagöz, a professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Marmara University. “Iran sees this as a threat to its regional influence and a development that could empower Turkey,” Alagöz added.

Nevertheless, Syria’s Kurdish-led militia, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which maintains close ties with the PKK, has stated it is not bound by Öcalan’s call to disarm. Although it has agreed in principle with Syria’s new rulers to merge its forces, the precise terms of the arrangement remain unclear.

Tensions also persist between the SDF and Syria’s new leadership. The Kurdish-led militia continues to demand greater autonomy within Syria — a position opposed by Damascus’s new rulers and their backers in Ankara. Turkey suspects Tehran of favouring a decentralised and weakened Syria — a goal analysts say is also shared by Israel.

“The Middle East makes strange bedfellows,” notes Gallia Lindenstrauss, a foreign policy expert at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “Sometimes, these things unfold in ways that are surprising.”

Lindenstrauss also questions the Israeli government’s zero-sum view of Turkey, which it sees as both a rival and a supporter of Syria’s new rulers.

He told RFI: “I’m not sure this idea of a decentralised Syria is fully thought through by Jerusalem. I know there’s a lot of intellectual energy devoted to this line of thinking. But clearly, we don’t want Iran to use Syria to its advantage. A centralised regime might be a better scenario for Syria. But that comes at a cost — and the cost is increased Turkish involvement and influence in Syria. So, there is a dilemma.”

Last month, Fidan angered Tehran by warning that Iran could face instability if it attempted to destabilise Syria — a statement some analysts interpret as a veiled reference to Iran’s sizeable and often restive Turkish minority, which is viewed with suspicion by Tehran.

Ünlühisarcıklı believes Ankara sees itself as gaining the upper hand in its regional rivalry with Tehran, yet remains cautious about the risks posed by a potential US-Iran conflict.

Turkey’s Erdogan sees new Trump presidency as opportunity

“Turkey has outcompeted Iran, and it has no objection to Iran being further weakened,” Ünlühisarcıklı remarked.

“But Turkey would have a serious problem with Iran being targeted militarily, as that would destabilise the entire region.”

Avoiding such a conflict now offers common ground for Turkey and its long-time regional competitor Iran — a relationship often described as a delicate balance between cooperation and competition.

Analysts expect this balancing act to be severely tested in the months to come.

The Turkish opposition has vowed to fight "until the end" against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with the leader of the CHP party accusing the head of state of staging a "coup" in arresting Istanbul's opposition mayor.
 

Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel has demanded a snap election that he said would serve as the "biggest no confidence vote in history" against President Erdogan, following the arrest last month of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, seen as the president's chief challenger.

"Erdogan carried out a coup against his own rival. He carried out a coup against the next president of Turkey, our presidential candidate. That is why our resistance and struggle against this will continue until the end," Ozel told French news agency AFP.

Imamoglu's arrest sparked the biggest opposition protests to grip Turkey since 2013, although the demonstrations have dipped in intensity over the past 10 days amid holidays marking the end of Ramadan.

To maintain momentum, the CHP is now calling for rallies in an Istanbul district every Wednesday and a rally on Sunday in the key port city of Samsun, on the Black Sea.

Polls indicate that Imamoglu could end Erdogan's almost quarter-century grip on power if he was allowed to stand in Turkey's 2028 presidential election

The Istanbul mayor was arrested on 19 March on charges related to corruption and organised crime. He appeared in court on Friday on charges of insulting a public official, with prosecutors calling for a seven-year jail sentence.

Imamoglu denies all charges and claims the accusations are politically motivated.

EU urges Turkey to 'uphold democratic values' after mass arrests at protests

The CHP is now also aiming to broaden the protest campaign by boycotting businesses linked to Erdogan and his supporters.

"Ozel realised that just inviting people to the streets is not going to help much," political consultant Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners told RFI.

"There is a large segment of Turkish society that, either because they fear the police or [for cultural reasons], are not used to protesting on the streets. Now, this boycott campaign allows everyone, whether they are CHP voters or not, to show their support by simply not buying anything."

Social media videos urging the boycott identify the companies linked to Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AK), from supermarkets to coffee shop chains.

The British rock group Muse cancelled their upcoming concerts in Turkey following calls by the opposition, as the promoter was linked to Erdogan's AK Party. 

"The boycott is the right decision, it is a long overdue decision that needs to be made," said one tradesman, who didn't want to be identified. "If the government continues in this way, the country will get worse. The boycott initiated by Ozgur Ozel is very relevant. We are participating as tradesmen. The shopkeepers in the area all participate."

Erdoğan tightens his grip with crackdown on protests while Europe stays silent

However, others have questioned the tactics. "I am totally against the boycott call," one local said. "It is our national income, and there is no point in boycotting some to cover up the theft of others. Let them [the opposition] get elected, let them take over the country, that's what I am saying."

Erdogan is threatening to punish those behind the boycott campaign. "Every kind of sabotage aimed at Turkey's economy and the nation's prosperity and peace will be held accountable in court," he told parliament.

Police have begun arresting people in dawn raids for social media posts supporting the boycott.

Almost 2,000 people, including many students, have been arrested in the crackdown on the protests in support of Imamoglu. However, an Istanbul court on Friday ordered the release of 59 young demonstrators, on top of 107 who were detained earlier.

The court explained its decision by pointing to the "risk of interruption of their studies" for the students accused.

The European Union faces a formidable challenge in bolstering its defence capabilities without dependence on the United States, following President Donald Trump's persistent calls for Europe to shoulder a greater share of the burden. Meanwhile, transatlantic trade relations are deteriorating, as Trump imposes punitive tariffs that could potentially impact arms trade between the US and the EU.

With plans to raise defence spending to €800 billion, the European Union must navigate the political pressure from the United States to continue procuring American-made weaponry, while addressing the practical necessity of cultivating its own defence industrial base.

Currently, many European weapon systems rely on US components, making it difficult for the EU to become entirely self-sufficient in defense production. The Eurofighter and Gripen aircraft, for example, contain a significant American components, and strategic air defense systems like the Patriot are hard to replace.

The EU's goal of creating a common defense union is politically challenging, but necessary for enhancing collective security.

This involves developing joint command and control structures, similar to those of the US and Russia, which would significantly improve European military effectiveness.

However, achieving full independence from US military support may prove to be a daunting task.

RFI's Jan van der Made spoke with Alexandr Burilkov of Leuphana University in Lüneburg, Germany, who co-authored a report on the subject, Defending Europe without the US, published by the Bruegel think tank and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Turkey’s opposition is accusing Europe of abandoning those fighting to keep democracy alive, as European leaders and the EU offer only muted criticism over the jailing of Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, and the crackdown on protests.

Rubber bullets, water cannons, and mass arrests continue to meet demonstrators protesting the detention of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s main rival. Yet, the EU is treading cautiously. "The arrest of the mayor is deeply concerning. As a member of the Council of Europe and an EU candidate country, Turkey must uphold democratic rights," said Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.

EU and UK reactions

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, once a human rights lawyer, has so far remained silent on İmamoğlu’s arrest. Only one of his aides issued a muted statement, saying the UK expects Turkey’s judicial process to be respected.

Turkey braces for more protests over Istanbul mayor's arrest

Özgür Özel, leader of the main opposition CHP party, has lashed out at Europe’s response. "Those who champion democracy at home but empower autocracy in Turkey — those who say, ‘We’ll give the money so the Syrians are taken care of’ — will know this government will change next year. When all is said and done, Turkey will remember the silence of its friends more than the voices of its enemies," Özel told supporters.

The UK and EU rely on Turkey to act as Europe’s gatekeeper, hosting millions of Syrian refugees in exchange for billions of euros in aid.

Erdoğan’s two-decade grip on power, having repeatedly defeated the opposition at the polls, has left European leaders feeling powerless. "The consensus is that this is something we cannot change, something we cannot influence from outside. Europeans have mistakenly concluded they have no leverage over Turkey," says Aslı Aydıntaşbaş of the Washington-based Brookings Institution.

But Aydıntaşbaş insists Europe still has powerful tools at its disposal. "Of course, Europeans have had — and still have — enormous leverage, particularly economic leverage, especially through Turkey’s EU accession process. But they simply don’t want to push."

Erdoğan’s importance to Europe is only growing, as European leaders scramble to strengthen their defences against a resurgent Russia and an unreliable United States. With NATO’s second-largest army, Turkey is increasingly seen as critical to Europe’s security.

"Turkey is more important than ever in this era of brutal geopolitical realities; it stands between two wars. President Erdoğan has been masterful in playing the West off against Russia, and the US against Europe. He has become an indispensable middle power — not exactly an ally, but certainly not someone you want to cross," Aydıntaşbaş explains.

"Europeans are interested in bringing Turkey closer into European defence plans," she adds. "The Americans, too, see Turkey as essential to stabilising Syria. Western countries simply don’t want to risk pushing Erdoğan away."

Further arrests as Turkey cracks down on protests over jailed Istanbul mayor

EU and Turkey

Even before Europe’s lukewarm reaction to İmamoğlu’s arrest and the crackdown on protests, Turkey’s opposition had accused the EU of abandoning Turkish democracy. Local human rights groups, still battling to defend civil liberties, claim the EU has quietly been cutting its funding since Erdoğan’s election victory in 2023.

"There’s a visible hesitation among international donors when it comes to Turkey," warns Sinan Gökçen, Turkey representative for the Sweden-based Civil Rights Defenders.

"When it comes to bilateral or intergovernmental funding, the refugee deal with the EU remains central to Turkey’s relations with Europe. No one wants to upset that. In fact, no one wants to risk provoking Turkey," Gökçen adds.

Turkey’s opposition, however, shows no such restraint. As many as two million people took to the streets of Istanbul last Saturday to protest against Erdoğan and İmamoğlu’s arrest. CHP Deputy Chairman İlhan Uzgel says that with Turkish democracy at breaking point, he is dismayed by Europe’s silence — but remains confident in the people’s resolve.

"We are losing our democracy. Every other day, a businessperson, a trade unionist, a student, a journalist, a doctor, an ordinary citizen, or an academic is taken into custody. We are facing our authoritarian leader alone," Uzgel declared.

The CHP has vowed to continue mobilising mass protests across the country, stepping up its resistance. With Erdoğan accusing the opposition of treason and rebellion, further mass arrests are expected, along with legal moves against the party itself. Whatever the outcome of the battle for Turkey’s democracy, Europe’s leaders seem destined to be remembered as bystanders.

The conviction of far-right figure Marine Le Pen has thrown her National Rally (RN) party into turmoil. She was sentenced to four years in prison and banned from public office for five years, a ruling that could stop her from running in the 2027 presidential election. Once deeply controversial, the RN has gained popularity in recent years as it seeks to distance itself from its troubled past.

The National Rally, formerly the National Front, has a complex history, having transformed from a party once openly sympathetic to Nazi ideologies into one that now seeks broader legitimacy, including forging alliances with pro-Israeli groups – a strategic shift aimed at expanding its appeal.

This evolution mirrors wider trends among far-right movements across Europe and the United States, where such groups have sought to rebrand themselves in pursuit of mainstream acceptance.

RFI’s Jan van der Made speaks with Nafeez Ahmed, author of Alt Reich, which explores the dark origins of many contemporary far-right movements.

The lawyer of Istanbul's jailed mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has now been arrested, alongside several more journalists, following the country's biggest demonstrations against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan since 2013.

Ten days after the arrest and subsequent jailing of Istanbul's mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, thousands of demonstrators have continued to protest on the streets of Istanbul, despite a ban.

A popular opposition politician, Imamoglu is seen as the only person capable of defeating Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the polls in 2028.

Imamoglu was arrested last Wednesday on corruption and terror charges and remains in jail.

Turkey braces for more protests over Istanbul mayor's arrest

Despite this, his party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), declared him its presidential candidate in absentia, after holding a symbolic nationwide vote last weekend that saw almost 15 million people cast a ballot.

On Thursday night, police raided more homes, with Imamoglu saying his lawyer Mehmet Pehlivan had been "detained on fictitious grounds," in a post published via the mayor's legal team on social media platform X (formerly Twitter).

It was not immediately clear why Pehlivan had been detained, but opposition broadcaster Halk TV said his arrest was linked to allegations of "laundering assets originating from a crime".

The Istanbul Bar Association meanwhile said 20 minors had been arrested between 22 and 25 March on charges of violating a ban on protests.

Of these 20, 13 had been released but seven were still in custody, it said in a statement posted on X, adding that it was "closely following" the matter.

Many of those demonstrating have only ever known Erdogan as Turkey's leader.

"We have the right to vote, we have the right to choose whoever we want to rule us. But he [Erdogan] is taking that right from us," one protestor, who wished to remain anonymous, told RFI.

Turkey's Erdogan wins election, extending rule to third decade

Another demonstrator who also did not want to give his name added: "We want democracy, we want the people to choose who is elected. We want the free will to choose who we want without them being imprisoned."

The unrest is at a level unseen since the Gezi protests of 2013, which almost saw Erdogan ousted. Demonstrations have spread across the country since last week, even reaching the president's traditional strongholds.

Students have launched a nationwide boycott of universities, and opposition leaders are warning of a new escalation in their protests.

Turkey expert Gonul Tol of the Washington-based Middle East Institute think tank told RFI that Erdogan's strategy may backfire this time.

"In 2019, when Ekrem Imamoglu won the municipal elections in Istanbul, Erdogan didn't accept the result and called for a rerun," she explained.

"While in the first round, Imamoglu won by a razor-thin majority, in the second round people got so angry and frustrated that they handed Imamoglu a bigger win. So this could easily backfire, and now that there are hundreds of thousands of people on the streets, this could turn into something much bigger than Erdogan had expected."

However, Erdogan has doubled down, warning that protestors will pay a heavy price.

"Those who are involved in treason and who set up an ambush for the brotherhood of the nation will sooner or later be held accountable to justice," he told his AK Party parliamentary deputies on Wednesday.

Turkish radio ban is latest attack on press freedom, warn activists

The president has also taken aim at the media. Turkish authorities on Wednesday detained BBC journalist Mark Lowen, then deported him on the grounds he posed "a threat to public order," the UK broadcaster said.

Also on Thursday, Turkey's government-controlled regulatory authority slapped the independent Sozcu TV station with a 10-day broadcast ban and a fine, pointing to alleged violations linked to incitement to "hatred and hostility".

Police also detained two Turkish journalists in dawn raids on their homes, the Turkish Journalists' Union (TGS) said on X.

Deputy chairman of the CHP party Ilhan Uzgel says early elections are the only way to put an end to the crisis.

He warned: "It's damaging the image of the country, it's damaging the economy, it's damaging the social structure of the society in Turkey. The judiciary is the least trusted institution in Turkey; it can't continue like this."

Anger is mounting over the arrest of Istanbul's popular mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on corruption and terror charges. Seen as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival, Imamoglu was arrested on Wednesday, just days before he was due to be named as the candidate for the main opposition CHP party in the 2028 presidential election.

Imamoglu's opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) has denounced the detention as a "coup" and vowed to keep up the demonstrations, which by Thursday night had spread to at least 32 of Turkey's 81 provinces, according to a count by French news agency AFP.

Opposition leader Ozgur Ozel told supporters: "This is not the time for politics in rooms and halls but on the streets and squares."

Imamoglu was arrested in a pre-dawn raid on Wednesday, on corruption and terror charges, ahead of his expected election on Sunday as the CHP's candidate for Turkey's presidential elections in 2028. 

According to political analyst Mesut Yegen of the Reform Institute, an Istanbul-based think tank, Imamoglu is more than just a mayor. 

"Imamoglu is now [Erdogan's] main rival, it's obvious," Yegen told RFI, adding that as Istanbul's mayor he has a unique opportunity. "Istanbul is important for the resources it has, it's the biggest municipality. Here in Turkey, municipalities are important to finance politics."

Opinion polls give Imamoglu – who defeated Erdogan's AK party three times in mayoral elections – a double-digit lead over Erdogan. This is because he is widely seen as reaching beyond his secular political base to religious voters, nationalists and Turkey's large Kurdish constituency. 

Some observers see Imamoglu's arrest as a sign that Erdogan is reluctant to confront the mayor in presidential elections.

"If Erdogan could beat him politically with regular rules, he would love that. But he cannot be doing that. Erdogan wants to take him out of the political sphere one way or the other," explained Sezin Oney, a commentator on Turkey's independent Politikyol news outlet. 

"The competitive side has started to be too much of a headache for the presidency, so they want to get rid of the competitive side and emphasise the authoritarian side, with Imamoglu as the prime target," she said.

Erdogan’s local election defeat reshapes Turkey’s political landscape

Turkey's justice minister Yilmaz Tunc has angrily rejected claims that Imamoglu's prosecution is politically motivated, insisting the judiciary is independent. 

Erdogan sought to play down the protests, saying on Friday that Turkey "will not surrender to street terror" and discouraged any further demonstrations.

"We, as a party and individuals, have no time to waste on the opposition's theatrics. We are focused on our work and our goals," Erdogan declared. 

Imamoglu's arrest comes as Turkey's crisis-ridden economy took another hit, with significant falls on the stock market and its currency falling by more than 10 percent as international investors fled the Turkish market.

However, Oney suggests Erdogan will be banking on a combination of fear and apathy eventually leading to the protests dissipating, and that Imamoglu, like other imprisoned political figures in Turkey, will be marginalised.

"The government is counting on the possibility that once Imamoglu is out of sight, [he will be] out of mind," she predicts. "So he will just be forgotten, and the presidency will have its way [more easily]."

Turkey is no stranger to jailing politicians, even leaders of political parties. However, Oney warns that with Imamoglu facing a long prison sentence if convicted, the significance of such a move should not be underestimated.

"It's going to be extremely detrimental to Turkish democracy. You have jailing of politicians, but someone on the scale of Imamoglu will be unique," she said.

Despite Imamoglu's detention, the CHP vowed it would press ahead with its primary on Sunday, at which it would formally nominate him as its candidate for the 2028 race.

The party said it would open the process to anyone who wanted to vote, not just party members, saying: "Come to the ballot box and say 'no' to the coup attempt!"

Observers said the government could seek to block the primary, to prevent a further show of support for Imamgolu.

The overthrow of Bachar al-Assad's regime in Syria and its replacement by new rulers with close ties to Turkey are ringing alarm bells in Israel. RFI's correspondent reports on how Ankara and Jerusalem’s deepening rivalry could impact Syria's future.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's already strong support for the militant group Hamas has strained relations with Israel.

Now, Syria is threatening to become a focal point of tension.

Earlier this month, Erdogan issued a widely interpreted warning to Israel to stop undermining Damascus's new rulers.

"Those who hope to benefit from the instability of Syria by provoking ethnic and religious divisions should know that they will not achieve their goals," Erdogan declared at a meeting of ambassadors.

Erdogan's speech followed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's offer to support Syria's Druze and Kurdish minorities.

"We will not allow our enemies in Lebanon and Syria to grow," Netanyahu told the Knesset. "At the same time, we extend our hand to our Druze and Kurdish allies."

Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv told RFI that Israel view is not very optimistic about the future of Syria, and sees it as a potential threat to Israel.

Success of rebel groups in Syria advances Turkish agenda

"The fact that Turkey will be dominant in Syria is also dangerous for Israel," adds Lindenstrauss.

"Turkey could build bases inside Syria and establish air defences there. This would limit Israel’s room for manoeuvre and could pose a threat. Israel wants to avoid this and should therefore adopt a hard-line approach."

Ankara and Jerusalem’s deepening rivalry is shaping conflicting visions for the future of Syria.

Selin Nasi, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics' Contemporary Turkish Studies Department, "Turkey wants to see a secure and stabilised unitary state under Ahmad al-Sharaa’s transitional government.

"Israel, on the other hand, wants to see a weak and fragmented Syria. Its main concern has always been securing its northern border," added Nasi.

Israeli forces are occupying Syrian territory along their shared northern border, which is home to much of Syria’s Druze minority.

However, Israeli hopes of drawing Syria's Kurds away from Damascus suffered a setback when the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which controls part of Syria, signed an agreement on 10 March to merge part of its operations with Syria’s transitional government.

As Damascus consolidates control, analysts suggest Israel will be increasingly concerned about Turkey expanding its military presence inside Syria.

"If Turkey establishes military posts in the south of the country, close to the Israeli border, presumably with the permission of the government in Damascus," warns Soli Ozel, a lecturer in international relations at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, "then the two sides would be in close proximity, with military forces on both sides. That, I believe, would create a highly dangerous, volatile, and incendiary situation."

As Erdogan celebrates Turkish role in ousting Assad, uncertainty lies ahead

Analysts warn that if Turkey extends its military presence to include airbases, this could threaten Israel’s currently unchallenged access to Syrian airspace.

However, some observers believe that opportunities for cooperation may still exist.

"Things can change," says Israeli security analyst Lindenstrauss.

"Israel and Turkey could resume cooperation and potentially contribute to Syria’s reconstruction in a way that does not threaten Israel. However, this does not appear to be the path the Erdogan regime is currently taking, nor does it seem to be the direction chosen by Netanyahu and his government."

With Erdogan and Netanyahu making little secret of their mutual distrust, analysts warn that their rivalry is likely to spill over into Syria, further complicating the country’s transition from the Assad regime.

France's recent military withdrawals from the Sahel and West Africa are leaving a void that Turkey is keen to exploit, experts told RFI. But while Turkey is profiting from its position as a NATO member and experienced arms exporter, it needs to be careful not to overstretch itself in terms of resources on the continent.

France's handover of its sole base in Côte d'Ivoire and a pullout in January from Chad are part of a broader reduction of the French army's presence across the region.

"What we are living in now is a transformational age," international relations expert Federico Donelli of Trieste University told RFI.

"Many traditional players like France, for example, in that region of Africa are downgrading their own engagement in this area. Not because they have some economic or political constraint but because the local states want them to leave the region."

Donelli believes the door is now open to new players, such as Turkey.

"Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has invested heavily in Africa, quadrupling Turkey's embassy presence across Africa in the past two decades. Erdogan, a devout Muslim, also plays the Muslim card and reminds his African audiences of France's colonial past," he says.

However, Eylem Tepeciklioglu of Ankara's Social Sciences University believes the breakthrough for Turkey came with the French military failing to deal with insurgent threats in the Sahel and broader West Africa.

"The image of France is in tatters because the regional countries criticise French missions for failing to help them fight with terrorist groups and for bringing more harm than good," explains Tepecikoglu.

Tepeciklioglu claims Erdogan's Africa policy caught the regional zeitgeist.

"Together with rising anti-French sentiments, this brings opportunities for other countries to step in, and Turkey has several defense or mutual cooperation agreements with Sahelian countries. And according to some sources, Turkey has deployed military advisers and drones at the Abéché base in Chad," adds Tepeciklioglu.

Macron’s Africa 'reset' stumbles as leaders call out colonial overtones

Deepening Senegalese and Turkish military ties was on the agenda at an Istanbul meeting in October. Shortly after the high-profile gathering, Senegal called for the removal of French forces.

Turkey's vibrant arms industry selling battle-proven weapons invariably cheaper than its Western competitors, as well as having few, if any, restrictions on use, is complementing Ankara's traditional diplomatic tools in its bid to broaden its influence.

"Turkish defense products are now very popular in African markets. So this also applies to Sahelian countries," explains Tepeciklioglu, "For example, Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad acquired Turkish drones. While other Sahelian countries acquired other Turkish military equipment."

Turkey remains a relatively small player against the giants of Russia, China, and the United States in the battle to secure economic and diplomatic influence. 

But the growing competition between Western and Eastern powers could be to Turkey's advantage, says Donelli.

 "So, for an African state, establishing a security agreement with Turkey is less costly in political terms in comparison with relations with Russia because that doesn't mean 'I break with the West, but I'm doing something with a NATO member'. This is really important," adds Donelli.

Turkey and Italy consider teaming up to seek new influence in Africa

But Turkey's rapid expansion into Africa does not come cheap what with diplomatic representations across the continent, growing military presence, such as army and naval bases in Libya and Africa.

"Turkey is expanding too much. This is called overstretch in diplomatic language," warns International relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara Middle East Technical University.

"So, Turkey's military and economic capabilities are actually limited. The more you expand, the more you have to pay," he says, adding that such a strategy would not be sustainable.

With the Turkish economy mired in crisis and Erdogan looking to improve ties with Europe, including France, analysts say Turkey could be ready for cooperation rather than rivalry in Africa.

With war at Europe's doorstep and US support uncertain, the continent must focus on military readiness and strategic autonomy. RFI's David Coffey speaks with Serge Stroobants of the Institute for Economics and Peace on whether Europe can defend itself and at what cost.

The sharp decline in US-Ukraine relations has raised doubts about American support for Europe, as the continent assesses its ability to defend itself against a threat from Russia.

Donald Trump's decision to cut military aid to Ukraine this week signals a  shift in US foreign policy and raises questions about America’s commitment to Europe's security.

From shortages in the number of tanks and the availablity of artillery, to the debate over a unified European army, leaders must decide whether to bolster national forces or embrace deeper military cooperation.

As France and the UK guard their nuclear arsenals and Russia tests Europe’s resolve, can the EU build a credible deterrent, or will it continue to rely on America?

The Director for Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa at the Institute for Economics and Peace, Serge Stroobants, explained to RFI that Europe lacks the capacity to react quickly to security threats, with defence procurement bogged down by fragmentation and slow production timelines.

As early as 2016, Germany’s defence industry acknowledged that no major projects would reach completion for at least six to eight years. Today the projections are even worse.

“If you want to invest quickly in the military – into defence, into new equipment and weapon systems – these need to be bought off the shelf outside of Europe," with the US, Turkey, and South Korea as key suppliers, he says.

Beyond military upgrades, Europe faces a broader challenge as its entire economic and state system must adapt to meet modern security demands.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s recent pledge to cut red tape for defence procurement is a step in the right direction, Stroobants says, but it comes too late and under pressure from events rather than forward planning.

“The problem is – as is so often with the EU – we are doing this under the pressure of the events. We're not doing this in advance. We're not planning. We don't have a strategy."

Despite being a continent of 500 million people – and the world's third-largest economic and military power – Europe remains unable to ensure its own security due to a longstanding lack of strategic foresight and neglect of defence spending.

As it stands, a unified EU defence force remains a challenge due to Europe’s struggle to coordinate military policy alongside foreign diplomacy and development.

Stroobants explains that peace and security are based on three pillars – diplomacy, development and defence. “When you look at the EU, this has been done for almost 75 years, but if you are not able to integrate foreign policy and foreign development...and have common influence outside of European borders? Well, it doesn't really help to only unify just one of those three pillars," he said.

While the EU has made progress in development and soft power, true strategic influence for the bloc requires the full integration of defence and diplomacy to establish an undivided foreign policy and a stronger global presence.

'Europe must do the heavy lifting' in Ukraine, needs 'US backing': UK's Starmer

“For 30 to 35 years now, we have been divesting from defence, but it's much more than defence. It's the entire society that has lived with the idea that we would live eternally in peace," Stroobants says.

He argues that to independently deter Russian aggression, European nations must go beyond bolstering their military capabilities – they need to rethink their entire strategic approach.

“If you want to be ready, you need to invest in defence...but you also need to reshape your society and your infrastructure,” he adds.

He also points out that with France and the UK as Europe's only nuclear powers, their cooperation on a nuclear umbrella remains uncertain. France insists its deterrent will stay national but may engage allies without losing autonomy. Both nations favour a "coalition of the willing" over an EU or NATO-led approach, prioritising national security.

While Moscow takes America's military threat seriously and views European states as weak, Stroobants added,  Europe must take concrete steps to change this perception and restore credible deterrence.

European security hinges on two key concepts: deterrence and power. Deterrence relies not just on military capability but on the will to use it – because, as Stroobants puts it, “you can have 20,000 nuclear warheads, but if you have nobody who is strong enough to use them, they are not going to be a deterrent.

"And that's exactly what's happening with the EU at the moment”.

True power – accroding to Stroobants – is essentially a combination of military, economic, and diplomatic strength,comboined with a clear strategy and the political will to act.

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While Europe possesses significant resources, it lacks a unified vision on how to confront Putin's Russia and define its role in an increasingly aggressive global order – leaving it strategically adrift and unable to deter adversaries effectively.

The absence of key nations – including the Baltic states – from a recent high-level security meeting in London only underscores the challenge of consolidating a unified European deterrent.

“After having lived in the military for 30 years, in Europe and under the NATO umbrella, not incorporating all the allies or member states [at high level meetings] is really strange," he said.

For Stroobants, Europe now is facing the disintegration of alliances that have taken over seven decades to build.