International report

The capture of Syria's major cities by rebel groups Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army, fighting against the forces of President Bashar al-Assad, offers Turkey the opportunity to achieve its strategic goals in the country.

The lightning offensive of Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, which has seen the rebels capture several major Syrian cities in less than two weeks, gives Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan leverage over his Syrian counterpart President Bashar al-Assad.

"Turkey can easily stop both [rebel] entities and start a process. Turkey does have this strength, and Assad is well aware of it," said Murat Aslan of the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a Turkish pro-government think tank. 

Until now, Assad has rejected Erdogan's overtures for dialogue to end the civil war peacefully. "The Turkish intention politically is not to escalate in Syria [but to] start a political, diplomatic engagement with the Assad regime, and come to the terms of a normal state, and that all Syrians safely return to their homes," Aslan noted.

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Erdogan is seeking to return many of the estimated 4 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey, amid growing public unease over their presence in the country.

"According to the opinion polls here, yes, the Syrian refugees [are] an issue. For any government, it would be a wonderful win to see these Syrians going back to Syria of their own will," explained Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region and is now a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's Medyascope news outlet.

However, Moscow has a lot to lose in Syria, as a key military backer of Assad, who in turn has granted Russia use of a key Syrian naval base. "For Moscow, it's of crucial importance that the personality of Assad remains in power," said Zaur Gasimov, a professor of history and a Russia specialist at the University of Bonn.

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Gasimov warns that Turkey could be facing another humanitarian crisis. "Russia would definitely use the military force of its aerospace forces, that can cause a huge number of casualties among civilians. Which means a new wave of migrants towards Turkish eastern Anatolia."

With more than a million Syrian refugees camped just across the Turkish border in the rebel-controlled Syrian Idlib province, analysts warn a new exodus into Turkey is a red line for Ankara.

"If they refresh their attacks on the captured areas by indiscriminate targeting... well [we can] expect further escalations in the region," warned Aslan of the pro-government SETA think tank. "And for sure there is a line that Turkey will not remain as it is, and if there is a development directly threatening the interests or security of Turkey, then Turkey will intervene."

With the Syrian rebel offensive also making territorial gains against the US-backed Kurdish militant group, the YPG, Ankara is poised to secure another strategic goal in Syria. Ankara accuses the YPG of having ties to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is fighting the Turkish state.

France joins Germany, US and Britain in call for de-escalation in Syria

"Without putting up a fight, and without getting directly involved, they [Ankara] have achieved one of their goals – for YPG to pull back from the Turkish frontier towards the south," explained Selcen. "I think Ankara now is closer to that goal."

With Syrian rebel successes appearing to advance Ankara's goals in Syria, some analysts are urging caution, given the rebels' links to radical Islamist groups. "The crashing down of the Assad regime is not in the interest of Turkey, because there will be chaos," warned international relations professor Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara's Middle East Technical University.

"Who is going to rule? What type of [governing] structure are we going to have?" he asked. "They are radicals, and another Daesh-style territory would not be in the interest of Turkey – in Turkish prisons, there are thousands of Daesh people."

Turkey is positioning itself as a key player in efforts to secure a Gaza ceasefire, despite its close ties with Hamas, which have drawn criticism from Washington. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to "make every contribution" to end what he called the "massacre" in Gaza.

US President Joe Biden signalled this week that Turkey could have a role in mediating peace in the Middle East.

"The United States will make another push with Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Israel and others to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza," Biden told reporters.

However, US officials have downplayed Turkey’s mediating role due to Ankara’s ties to Hamas.

"We don't believe the leaders of a vicious terrorist organisation should be living comfortably anywhere, and that certainly includes in ... a major city of one of our key allies and partners," US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said earlier.

Hamas leaders reportedly relocated to Turkey after the collapse of ceasefire efforts in November.

Erdogan, a staunch supporter of Hamas, has described the group as a "liberation movement". Following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Erdogan declared a national day of mourning.

"There are rumours, and I don’t know how true they are, that many of those people have actually received Turkish citizenship as well," Soli Ozel, a lecturer at the Institute for Human Studies in Vienna told RFI.

In a move seen as an attempt to placate Washington, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that there are no plans for Hamas to open a political bureau in Turkey.

Turkish presidential adviser Mesut Casin defended the policy: "Ankara will continue its position hosting Hamas number one. Number two, they will continue dialogue with Hamas in order to establish peace".

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Despite tensions between Turkey and Israel, they maintain back-channel communication.

In November, the head of Israel’s intelligence agency Shin Bet met his Turkish counterpart in Ankara. The meeting reportedly centred on the plight of Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

"We have 101 hostages that are still, we don’t know their fate," says Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies.

"There are attempts to at least receive information about who’s alive, who’s dead, who’s holding them – Hamas or Islamic Jihad."

Lindenstrauss cautioned that Israel remains sceptical of Turkey’s ability to act as a neutral mediator.

"It would be very hard for Israel in general and specifically Prime Minister Netanyahu to trust Turkey to be a mediator that will be respectful to both sides," she said.

While Erdogan’s public rhetoric often inflames tensions, analysts say Turkish-Israeli relations are shaped more by pragmatism than politics.

"Turkey and Israel have one way of dealing with one another in public and another way of dealing with one another diplomatically and in security cooperation," Ozel explains.

In a possible effort to build trust, Turkish authorities recently extradited three Uzbek suspects linked to the murder of an Israeli rabbi in the United Arab Emirates.

Egypt and Turkey's closer ties spark hope for peace among Libya’s rival factions

As Israel intensifies its military campaign against Hamas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected a Gaza ceasefire for now.

"The reason for having a ceasefire is to separate the fronts and isolate Hamas," Netanyahu said Tuesday.

"From day two of the war, Hamas was counting on Hezbollah to fight by its side. With Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas is left on its own. We will increase our pressure on Hamas."

Despite Ankara’s overtures, Israel has warned that Hamas leaders are not safe from targeting, even in Turkey.

"They will find these Hamas leaders and target them wherever they find them," Lindenstrauss maintains.

In Turkey, hundreds of new producers are growing the country's wine industry, and its international reputation – despite increasing taxation and controls by President Erdogan's religious, conservative government.

Grapes have been grown for centuries in Manisa, western Turkey. It is here that Fulya Akinci and her Spanish husband, Jose Hernandez Gonzalez, decided they wanted to be a part of the transformation of the country's wine industry.

"In 2005, in 2006, maybe when you went to a restaurant, you would order red wine or white wine, that was it," explains Akinci. "In the last 15 years, there has been a real boom. We have so many, we say, boutique wineries. Now, with these small wineries, the quality has changed a lot."

With their wine label Heraki, Akinci and Hernandez Gonzalez are part of this surge of new, small producers – a group which has grown to number around 200, from only a handful a decade ago. The couple trained at a wine school in Bordeaux and have worked in vineyards around the world. Hernandez Gonzalez explained that it was Turkey's untapped potential that persuaded him and Akinci to produce their own wine there.

"As a foreigner, when I came to Turkey I was really surprised about the biodiversity of different grape varieties," he said. "This is a country with many different grape varieties. Also, [there was] the potential of the soils and the climate. We have mountains, we have the coasts – many different climates to make grapes. And the potential of those grapes to make wine is huge."

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Hernandez Gonzales explained that rather than making wine from vines used worldwide, they decided to use indigenous grapes. "One of our main ideas here at Heraki was to make wines from those local grapes."

In five years, their production has increased from a couple of thousand to 20,000 bottles. But the couple says this has been an uphill struggle. "We have some difficulties because of the bureaucracy – so much paperwork – and some pressures over tax... so huge pressures on us. It's not easy at all," explained Akinci.

Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AK), which enjoys large support among Muslims, has, since coming to power in 2002, hiked alcohol taxes to 65 percent, among the highest in the world. There are also growing restrictions on wine production, sales and advertising. "We love making wine, but it's not easy at all. It's hard, and every day is getting worse and worse," said Akinci.

Turkey's broadcasting authorities banned images of alcohol on television back in 2013, and in much of the country securing alcohol licences is difficult.

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But meanwhile, government adverts promoting Turkey as a tourist destination abroad often highlight the country's wines as an attraction. With much of the wine industry based in tourism centres, experts say tourists are helping to drive demand and grow the reputation of Turkish wines.

"Wine producers have started to get better prices for their wines. They can now make money, against all the odds. There is international interest," said wine consultant Sabiha Apaydın Gonenli. Through her Kok Koken Toprak Conference (Root Soil Wine Conference) international symposiums, she promotes Turkey's wine industry internationally.

However, she warns the industry still has a long way to go. "It's not that economically viable at the moment because it is very small. In order to market this, you need support. You can't do this alone, wine producers need to come together."

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As for Heraki wines, they are now being stocked at a top European restaurant and have secured a German distributor. But despite such successes, Akinci says wine-making in Turkey remains a bittersweet experience.

"One day, we are so happy to make wine here, and we are thinking about increasing the volume and making other things. Then another day, we're thinking about closing up and going to Spain."

The banning of an Istanbul-based independent radio station has sparked political condemnation and protests in Turkey. With a mission to bridge the country's cultural divides over the last 30 years, Acik Radio's closure is seen as part of the government's attempts to tighten its grip on the media.

Turkey's media regulator, RTUK, revoked the station's licence, claiming it had failed to comply with an earlier fine and suspension.

That order came after a guest earlier this year referred to the 1915 killings of Armenians by Turkey's then-Ottoman rulers as a genocide.

RTUK ruled that the comment incited public hatred. While Acik did pay the fine, it didn't come off air, saying it was appealing the initial ruling in court.

The revocation of its broadcasting licence has drawn international condemnation and alarm. "Acik Radio has always adopted a moderate language, reflecting various political views," Erol Onderoglu, the Turkey representative for Paris-based media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF) told RFI. 

Onderoglu warns that banning Acik is part of a wider trend in the country of "eliminating media pluralism and weakening remaining minority voices". He continued: "It is in line with a political mission to impose a single official view on society, what they call national and patriotic journalism."

In Istanbul's Kadikoy district, listeners have been chanting in protest over Acik Radio's removal from the airwaves.

Elif Unal, an avid listener, said the station has been an important part of everyday life for a long time. "They ban everything that makes us smile, that makes us feel happy," she said. "Most of the people in Istanbul, across Turkey, open their eyes listening to Acik Radio. Acik Radio is important because it's a cultural hub and also a political supporter of many organisations, NGOs and activists."

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Protestor Mete Atature said he grew up listening to Acik. "Whichever programme you are listening to, you'll learn something. Not like a lecture, not like an education programme, but there's always something it leaves you with, and I miss that."

He added: "From one side, of course, it's a shock. From another side, it's not unexpected, given the way the whole country is going. There is less and less free speech, and there's more oppression, and this is another example."

Since its launch in 1994, Acik Radio has sought to bridge Turkey's deep cultural and political divides. Volunteers produce and present social and cultural programmes that represent the country's diverse population, including minorities.

Yetvart Danzikyan hosted Acik's show "Radio Agos," a programme aimed at Turkey's Armenian minority.

"We tried to make the unheard voices of not only the Armenian community but also all the other minorities, the Greek, Jewish, and Suryani communities," he said, adding that they were trying to bring even more unheard voices to the station's programmes.

Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries up

Turkey's main opposition parties are supporting the station, and say the closure is a government attempt to further tighten its grip on the country's media.

For now, Acik has returned to broadcasting via the internet, securing a licence under the new name of APACIK Radio. 

But those who run the station feel they are fighting an uphill battle. "The general atmosphere is getting towards more repression in Turkey," Acik's co-founder Omer Madra said wearily. "But we are very determined to fight on, and we've had some magnificent support from all the regions of the country."

With Donald Trump on course to begin his second term as US president, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is eyeing renewed opportunities for collaboration – hoping to rekindle the close relationship the two shared during Trump’s first presidency.

Erdogan, who congratulated Trump as a "friend" on social media, sees this as a chance to reshape US-Turkey relations.

During Biden’s presidency, engagement was largely limited to foreign ministers – marking a stark contrast to the “strong leader-to-leader relationship” Erdogan and Trump had enjoyed, says analyst Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara.

Trump and President Erdogan met face to face about nine times, compared to only two "brief encounters" with Biden, he adds.

Erdogan often speaks warmly of his dealings with Washington during Trump's first term in office.

"The chemistry is the same. Two charismatic leaders, two leaders who are unpredictable," notes Turkish presidential adviser Mesut Casin, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Yeditepe University.

He believes their personal rapport could set the stage for greater bilateral and regional cooperation, including efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

Erdogan has long sought to play a role in ending the Russia-Ukraine war, given his close ties with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and, more controversially, with Vladimir Putin – a relationship that drew criticism and suspicion from some of Turkey's NATO partners.

"Trump will push for negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war. And I think that's something that Turkey has always preferred," predicts Asli Aydintasbas a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

Turkey eyes US presidential race that stands to shake up mutual ties

Erdogan will also look to Trump for changes in US policy toward the YPG, a Syrian Kurdish militia that Ankara views as linked to the PKK, a group fighting the Turkish state.

The YPG’s alliance with Washington against the Islamic State has strained US-Turkey relations, with Biden resisting Erdogan’s calls to end support for the group.

Former Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen predicts Erdogan will hope Trump might be open to a deal.

"Erdogan thinks that, like himself, Trump too is a pragmatic leader. So leaving aside principles or other such in brackets, the two sides can reach an agreement by giving and taking something between the two," says Selcen.

While Trump has often spoken positively about Erdogan, he nonetheless remains unpredictable.

“Can you rely on him?” asks Murat Aslan of SETA, a Turkish pro-government thinktank.

Tensions between Turkey and Israel could also complicate relations.

Erdogan has expressed hope that Trump will succeed where Biden failed in ending Israel’s war on Hamas and Hezbollah, but with Trump’s strong support for Israel and Erdogan’s backing of Hamas, a clash could be looming.

"What happens if there is an escalation in the Middle East with the polarisation of Israel and Turkey, as it currently is, and the attitude of Trump, it's very clear that the Trump administration will threaten Turkey," says Aslan.

With conflicts raging across the region, Erdogan views a new Trump presidency as an opportunity for Turkey and the region.

But given the leaders' unpredictability, that opportunity doesn't come without risks.

As the United States stands on the brink of what many are calling the most consequential presidential election in recent history, the nation is focused on the battleground state of Pennsylvania, where both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump organised last-day rallies. RFI's Jan van der Made looks back at a campaign marked by unprecedented polarisation.

The bitter rivals embarked on a final frenzied campaign blitz Monday with both hitting must-win Pennsylvania on the last day of a tight and volatile US presidential election campaign.

Pennsylvania is the single biggest swing state prize under the US Electoral College system, which awards influence in line with population.

Republican Trump has promised a "landslide" as he seeks his return to the White House, while Democrat Harris said the "momentum" was on the side of her bid to be America's first woman president.

But the polls suggest a different story on the eve of Election Day – total deadlock in surveys nationally and in the seven swing states where the result is expected to be decided.

The world is anxiously watching the election, which is set to have profound implications for conflicts in the Middle East and Russia's war in Ukraine, and for tackling climate change.

Both sides say they are encouraged by early turnout numbers, with over 78 million people having voted already, around half of the total number of ballots cast in 2020.

The closeness of the 2024 White House race reflects a deeply divided United States, as it chooses between two candidates whose visions could scarcely be more different.

Media outlets and political parties have poured millions of dollars into advertising campaigns that leave little room for middle ground.

This stark divide is a reflection of the American political system, where the winner-takes-all approach often marginalises third-party candidates and reinforces the dominance of the two major parties.

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As election day approaches, the spotlight has fallen on undecided voters who may ultimately tip the scales in this tight race.

Campaign volunteers have been working tirelessly, engaging directly with potential voters in an effort to sway opinions and drive turnout.

To discuss what is at stake, RFI's Jan van der Made spoke to analyst J. Wesley Leckrone, Chair Political Science Widener University, Daniel Hopkins, Political Scientist University of Pennsylvania and Daniel Laurison, Associate Professor Sociology at Swarthmore College and former campaigner for Barack Obama.

With the presidential election in the United States only days away, Turkey is watching the vote closely. While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan enjoyed a close working relationship with Donald Trump when he was president, analysts warn that a second term for Trump wouldn't come without risks for Ankara.

Erdogan has avoided commenting on the US election, but Ankara sees the outcome of the 5 November vote as key for Turkish-US relations.

Each of the contenders, Vice-President Kamala Harris and Trump, are expected to take significantly different approaches to Turkey's long-time leader.

"During the past Trump presidency, the political relationship at the highest level between Erdogan and Trump was a strong one," says Sinan Ulgen, head of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, an Istanbul think tank.

Ties with President Joe Biden have been notably less friendly, however, if Harris were to win the relationship with Erdogan is likely to be a much more shallow one, Ulgen believes.

Erdogan met Trump nine times during his 2017-21 presidency, including on a state visit to Washington.

In contrast, he met Biden only briefly on the sidelines of international summits, with US-Turkish relations mainly conducted at foreign-minister level.

"Erdogan has been in power for more than 20 years and Biden is the only US president who has refused to meet him in an official capacity, either in the US capital or in the Turkish capital," says international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul's Kadir Has University.

"For Erdogan, leader-to-leader talks are key to achieving his goals. And probably, he thinks deep down that he can sort out many things through personal contact, connections or personal engagement."

Such interaction, especially with the most powerful person in the world, is also seen as vital to Erdogan's status at home.

"It's very important for his domestic standing and legitimacy," says Asli Aydintasbas, a political commentator and visiting fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution.

"He has built a personalised system but also convinced voters, particularly his base, that he is a consequential leader, that Turkey is rising, that he is very important, he is on par with the US president and the Russian president, that everybody is looking up to Erdogan."

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Aydintasbas questions how easy it would be for Erdogan to develop a relationship with Harris, even if she were ready to engage more directly than Biden.

"I cannot imagine what type of chemistry Harris and Erdogan would have. They don't come from similar backgrounds. It's difficult to imagine the two developing a very close personal relationship, to be honest," the analyst says.

Erdogan has often spoken warmly of his relationship with Trump – despite the fact he got hit by sanctions during his time in the White House over the detention of an American pastor, prompting the Turkish lira to crash in 2018.

Trump once even vowed to "totally destroy and obliterate" the Turkish economy over Turkey's threats to attack US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces.

"We have memories of the threats and sanctions," warns Murat Aslan of the pro-government Seta Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research in Ankara.

Invoking the 2018 crisis, Aslan said: "Rather than words, I think deeds are important."

Erdogan hopes a U-turn can salvage Turkey's floundering economy

The Middle East is another potential sticking point.

Trump is calling for more support for Israel in its wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, and analysts say differences could again emerge between the US and Turkish leaders.

"Trump's approach to the Middle East and the conflict between the Palestinians and Israel could actually escalate the tension in the Middle East to the extent that a regional war could be unavoidable," warns Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who directs the German Marshall Fund's office in Ankara.

"So yes, a Trump presidency has many opportunities for Turkey – but at a very high risk."

Meanwhile, though there has been little direct contact between Biden and Erdogan, Turkish-US relations have shown signs of improvement in recent months.

With the two Nato allies increasingly cooperating and better managing their differences, Aydintasbas suggests, there are merits for Ankara to both candidates.

"A Kamala Harris administration would mean more continuity, but the promise of stability in Turkish-US relations," she says. "Whereas Trump is so unpredictable that it could be very good one day, very bad one day."

With the Middle East war continuing to rage, Trump's unpredictability remains a risk to Ankara – but Erdogan will likely still covet the opportunity to renew his relationship with the US strongman.

A year of war in Gaza has undermined international law and threatens to make the strip uninhabitable, according to the United Nations special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories, Francesca Albanese. She tells RFI why she is making the case for Israel's offensive to be classified a genocide.

More than 1.8 million Palestinians in Gaza are experiencing extremely critical levels of hunger, according to the UN. Seventy percent of crop fields and livelihoods have been destroyed during the Israeli military offensive.

The war, which has claimed 42,000 lives in Gaza and left hundreds of thousands wounded, has also spread to the West Bank and Lebanon. Civilians as well as UN peacekeepers have been targeted by Israel's forces.

"I used the word 'catastrophe' for the first time back in October 2023," Albanese told RFI, "when Israel had killed 8,000, 6,000 people in the first weeks of the conflict and destroyed entire neighbourhoods, bakeries, churches, and targeted UN buildings and universities.

"This is not the way wars are conducted."

Albanese was speaking as she prepared to launch her latest report on the situation in Gaza and the other Palestinian territories, which she presented to the UN General Assembly earlier this week.

In it, she takes a long view of the current conflict, arguing that Israel's military actions form part of a systematic attempt to displace Palestinians that goes back decades – and which she calls a genocide.

"Israel occupies that land, according to the International Court of Justice, unlawfully," Albanese said. 

"So Israel unlawfully occupies a territory, oppressing its people, who of course retaliate. Then they wage a war against them. It doesn't work that way."

Hamas attack, one year on - a view from Gaza

Albanese acknowledges the deadly violence inflicted on Israelis by the attacks of 7 October last year, and she has advocated for the investigation and prosecution of crimes committed against civilians by Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups.

But she warns that the trauma of 7 October has deepened Israeli animosity towards Palestinians and spurred calls for vengeance, providing the government with an opportunity to escalate its actions in the occupied territories with the goal of making them unliveable.

"As we speak, Israel is running extermination raids neighbourhood per neighbourhood in the areas that were already forcibly evacuated, ethnically cleansed of nearly 1 million people in northern Gaza," Albanese told RFI.

"Only 400,000 people remained, who have been starved, abused and bombed. What the people in Gaza have gone through is really unspeakable, and now it is emptying the land completely."

Hamas attack, one year on - a view from Israel

The war has brought Israel's already tense relations with the United Nations to a low point, with the Israeli parliament this week approving a controversial bill to ban the UN's agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA – considered a lifeline for Gaza – from operating on Israeli territory.

Israel claims many of the agency's staff belong to Hamas or other terrorist groups, and accused some of them of involvement in the 7 October attacks.

The UN says it investigated the allegations and identified problems with neutrality, but no proof of terror links. It warns that restricting UNRWA will have a devastating effect on aid supply chains into Gaza.

More broadly, UN leaders have called for a ceasefire and denounced starvation, mass displacements, atrocities, war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Albanese has proved an especially controversial figure, calling for the UN to consider suspending Israel as a member state over its actions. 

Her stance has drawn accusations of bias and antisemitism from Israel's allies, notably the United States, which cancelled a briefing she was due to give the US Congress this week.

Washington and others argue that Israel has the right to defend itself – though Albanese questions whether its military operations are truly making it safer.

"Is it protection?" she asked. "How is what Israel is doing going to make its citizens protected? This is the question. And the blindness at the political level is mind-blowing."

The recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey, long-standing supporters of rival factions in Libya, offers a potential pathway to easing tensions in the North African country.

Libya resumed oil exports this month after a pause caused by a dispute over control of the country’s central bank, which oversees oil exports.

"This was a serious crisis," said Jalel Harchaoui from the Royal United Services Institute. "And while it's partly fixed, there are still issues that need attention."

The row between Libya's two rival administrations which led to the temporary halt, was only resolved by intense negotiations, but Harchaoui claims the conflict's repercussions continue.

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"A lot of players, including armed groups in Tripoli, are trying to take advantage of whatever has happened over the last several weeks. So I'm not describing a scenario of war, but I'm describing a more volatile environment," he said.

However, a recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey could offer hope of easing Libyan tensions.

"We agreed to consult between our institutions to achieve security and political stability," pledged Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi at a press conference last month in Ankara with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 

Libya once was a point of Turkish-Egyptian rivalry, with Cairo backing the eastern Libyan administration in Benghazi of Khalifa Haftar and Ankara supporting the western Tripoli-based Government of National Unity. Now, Egyptian-Turkish collaboration is key to resolving the latest Libyan crisis.

"Both countries can push the Tripoli-based government at least to accept something or come to the least terms that they can agree," said Murat Aslan of the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a pro-Turkish government think tank. "So it's a win-win situation for both Egypt and Turkey."

With both the Turkish and Egyptian economies in crisis, the economic benefits of cooperating in Libya are seen as a powerful force behind the country's rapprochement and Libyan collaboration.

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"These two countries are very important to one another," said Aya Burweila, a Libyan security analyst

"They've figured out a way to divide spheres and work together. Even in the east now, Turkish companies have cut lucrative deals, infrastructure deals, just as Egypt has.

"So economy and money drive a lot of these political friendships and reapportionment."

Ankara is looking to Cairo to use its influence over Hafta to support an agreement it made with the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity to explore widely believed energy reserves in Libyan waters.

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At the same time, Cairo is pressing to remove Ankara-supported Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh of Libya's Government of National Unity. Despite differences, Harchaoui says Cairo and Ankara are committed to cooperation.

"What has already been decided is that they are going to speak and they are going to speak on a daily basis," said Harchaoui.

"And then at every crucial moment, they are going to make sure and Turkey, specifically, is going to make sure that Egypt is on board.

"But we need more tangible results from the dialogue that has already been in place," he added.

Earlier this month, U.S. credit rating agency Fitch upheld its AA- rating for French debt, but shifted the outlook from "stable" to "negative." On 25 October,  Moody’s is set to deliver its assessment. If France’s budget plans falter, the country risks a credit rating downgrade, which would drive up borrowing costs and further inflate the national debt, which currently stands at a staggering €3.2 trillion.

On October 11, Fitch's decision to downgrade France's economic outlook to "negative" serves as a warning to Prime Minister Michel Barnier, who is struggling to push his 2025 budget through parliament. The credit agency's assessment signals a potential downgrade if the government fails to take swift action to improve public finances.

France's fiscal situation appears increasingly precarious. The deficit, now at €167 billion (5.5 percent of GDP), could  surpass 6 percent  by year’s end. With national debt projected to hit €3.5 trillion, or 114.7 percent of GDP, France is far beyond EU limits.

France braces for economic judgment amid political turmoil and record debt

EU rules require member states to keep budget deficits below 3 percent of GDP and debt under 60 percent of GDP.

Fitch predicts that the deficit will hover around 5.4% in both 2025 and 2026 due to ongoing political uncertainty and the challenges in implementing fiscal reforms. The agency believes the budget could pass before the year's end, but the government may need to make concessions to win support from opposition parties. 

All eyes are now on Moody's which will reveal its judgement on France's economy and credit-worthiness on 25 October. 

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Antoine Armand emphasised the government's commitment to improving the economy following Fitch's assessment, but will that be enough?

RFI spoke to Erik Norland, Chief Economist with the Chicago-based CMEGroup about the possible scenarios France's economic planners are facing.