International report

Joint military exercises between US and Armenian forces are the latest steps in Yerevan's efforts to shift away from Moscow. The potential reopening of the Armenian border with Turkey could also prove crucial – though it may ultimately depend on Armenia's rival, Azerbaijan.

July saw major military drills in Armenia between Armenian and United States forces.

"Politically, it is exceptionally relevant; they are four or five times larger than last year," explains Eric Hacopian, a political analyst in Armenia, who notes the range of US divisions mobilised for the drills. "It's not about peacekeeping."

The military exercise, dubbed "Eagle Partner", is part of Yerevan's wider efforts to escape its Russian neighbour's sphere of influence, Hacopian believes.

"These are serious exercises, and they were followed up with the news that there is going to be US permanent representation in the Ministry of Defence of Armenia as advisors to join the French who are already there," he noted.

"Essentially, there is no other play but to join the West."

France, Russia stand on opposite sides of Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict

Armenia is also seeking to reduce its economic dependence on Russia, pressing Turkey to open its border and providing a new gateway to Western markets for the landlocked country.

Ankara closed the frontier in 1993 after ethnic Armenian forces seized the contested Azerbaijani enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, with Azerbaijani forces recapturing the enclave last year, analysts say the opening of the border could now align with Turkey's goals to expand its regional influence.

"The normalisation of the relationship with Armenia would allow Turkish policy in the Cacasus to acquire a more comprehensive dimension today. That's the missing element," said Sinan Ulgen, an analyst with the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, a think tank in Istanbul.

"Turkey obviously has very strong links to Azerbaijan and very good relations with Georgia, but not with Armenia," he explained. "And that's a predicament, as we look at Turkey's overall policy in the Caucasus."

Washington is working hard to broker a permanent peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. "A deal is close," declared US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of July's NATO summit in Washington.

Last week, Turkish and Armenian envoys held their fifth meeting aimed at normalising relations. However, with critical issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan unresolved, Baku sees Turkey's reopening of the Armenian border as important leverage.

In principle, both Azerbaijan and Turkey are in favour, claims Farid Shafiyev, an Azeri former diplomat and now chair of the Centre of Analysis of International Relations in Baku.

"However, we believe at this stage, as we have not signed a peace agreement, it might send a wrong signal to Yerevan and Armenia that we don't need to come to an agreement about the core issues – the mutual recognition of territorial integrity," he said.

Can Turkey tip the balance of power in the Caucasus conflict?

Meanwhile Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has developed close ties with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, and is ruling out opening the border until Baku's demands are met.

Turkish arms were key to Azerbaijan's recent military successes against Armenian-backed forces. "Azerbaijan is where it is, in good part because of Turkey's military assistance, intelligence assistance and all that," argues Soli Ozel, who teaches international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University.

But Ozel says Baku is dictating Ankara's Caucasus policy. "It is befuddling to me that Turkey cannot open the borders with Armenia, which Armenia both needs and wants, because of Azerbaijan's veto," he said. "Especially if indeed Azerbaijan, for one reason or another, believes that its interests are once more in turning toward Russia."

With Azerbaijan's Socar energy company Turkey's biggest foreign investor, Baku retains powerful economic leverage over Ankara – meaning any hope of reopening the Turkish-Armenian border appears dependent on the wishes of Azerbaijan's leadership.

A new law that threatens to cull millions of street dogs in Turkey has sparked nationwide anger. While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan insists the strays are a public health risk, critics say the move is an attempt to distract from bigger problems.

Under controversial legislation currently passing through parliament, local authorities would be responsible for rounding up stray dogs, which would be killed after 30 days if an owner can not be found for them.

Opponents claim as many as eight million street dogs could be at risk.

"They are planning to round them up into shelters, which we call death camps," said Zulal Kalkandelen, one of the animals rights activists taking part in a recent protest against the plan in Istanbul.

"For some time, there has been a campaign to fuel stray animal hatred," she declared.

"Our people, who have been living with street dogs for many years, in fact for centuries, are now being brought to the point where all these animals will be erased."

Street dogs have been a part of Istanbul life for centuries. The proposed legislation evokes memories of a dark chapter in the city's past when, in 1910, street dogs were rounded up and left on a nearby island to starve.

It has provoked emotive arguments in parliament, with MPs jostling one another and exchanging insults – opening another deep divide in an already fractured political landscape.

But President Erdogan insists something must be done to control stray animals that, he argues, have become a menace to society, causing traffic accidents and spreading disease.

Addressing parliament, Erdogan claimed he was answering the call of the "silent majority".

"The truth is that a very large part of society wants this issue to be resolved as soon as possible and our streets to become safe for everyone, especially our children," he declared.

"It is unthinkable for us to remain indifferent to this demand, this call, even this cry. Our proposals are no different from those of other countries in Europe."

Mixed reactions as France prepares to simplify wolf culling rules

Lawyer Elcin Cemre Sencan, who has helped organise protests against the proposed legislation, argues there are more humane ways to address people's concerns.

"There is a group of people who are disturbed by these stray animals or who are afraid even to touch them," she acknowledges. "But even if there are these concerns, the solution is not to put the dogs to sleep.

"Scientific studies have shown that sterilising animals, especially dogs, reduces not only their numbers but also attacks on people."

Veterinary organisations have also pointed out that the cost of euthanising a dog is many times higher than sterilisation and vaccination.

Some critics suggest politics could be behind the move.

With Erdogan's conservative AK Party suffering heavy defeats in local elections this spring and Turkey grappling with near 100 percent inflation, opponents claim the Turkish president could be calculating that objections to his street dog legislation comes mainly from the secular opposition and hoping the issue will consolidate his religious base.

"We know our problems in this country; the world knows our problems. There is an economic crisis, and we have human rights problems everywhere. But they want to change the main topics to these animals," said Eyup Cicerali, a professor at Istanbul's Nisantasi University, at a recent protest against the legislation.  

"They want to kill them all," he claimed. "We are here to protect our values, values of respect and dignity for human and animal rights. Life is an issue for all groups."

According to one recent opinion poll, less than 3 percent of the Turkish public support the culling of street dogs.

Some of Erdogan's MPs have even started speaking out against the law in the media, albeit anonymously. "This law makes us dog killers," one unnamed deputy was quoted as saying.

Despite such misgivings, the legislation is expected to pass parliament later this month.

But with the protests drawing together secular and religious animal lovers, and opposition-controlled local authorities declaring they won't impose the law, the stray dog legislation could prove a risky move for Erdogan.

Where will Gaza stray dogs find shelter?

Facing mounting domestic tensions over Syrian refugees, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is reaching out to Syrian President Bashar Al Assad for dialogue. The initiative, reportedly supported by Moscow, is complicated by Turkey's significant military presence in Syria.

Erdogan's call for talks comes after widespread riots against Syrian refugees in Turkish cities. He aims to facilitate the return of Syrians who have fled to Turkey since the Syrian civil war began in 2011.

Soli Ozel, an international relations expert at Istanbul's Kadir Has University, says the situation is volatile.

"The country is like a tinderbox regarding refugees, especially as economic conditions deteriorate. Syrians have become easy scapegoats, and there's widespread frustration with their presence, justified or not. This has become a significant political issue," Ozel said.

He also stresses that key to any solution is a credible plan for the orderly departure of Syrian refugees to reassure the Turkish public.

Erdogan's party suffered losses in local elections in March, largely due to growing hostility towards over three million Syrian refugees in Turkey and rampant inflation approaching triple digits. These factors have intensified pressure on Erdogan to address the refugee situation.

• Turkey vows to keep borders shut despite new exodus of Syrians

Russia, under Putin, supports Erdogan's diplomatic outreach, seeing it as a potential end to Turkish backing of Syrian rebels and a conclusion to the civil war.

This aligns with Moscow's priorities, since resolving the Syrian conflict would allow Russia to redirect military resources to Ukraine.

However, Turkey's extensive military presence in Syria complicates potential talks. Turkish forces are engaged in operations against Kurdish groups, which Ankara claims are linked to domestic separatists. The Turkish military also protects Syrian rebel forces along the border.

Aydin Selcen, a former Turkish diplomat and now a foreign policy analyst with Medyascope, suggests that Ankara's willingness to negotiate could provide Syria with an opportunity to secure Turkish withdrawal.

"Assad relies heavily on external support and even internal factions" he said.

"Unable to forcibly remove Turkish troops, Assad's only option is to request their withdrawal as a precondition for talks."

Despite this, Erdogan insists on maintaining Turkey's military presence until Syria can effectively secure its borders.

Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies said: "Turkey's primary concern is preventing the border region from becoming a security threat post-withdrawal. Turkey needs assurances from Syria before considering troop removal."

• Turkey's Syrian refugees face local hostility as economic problems mount

The news of Erdogan's pursuit of dialogue with Damascus sparked unrest in rebel-held northeast Syria, with protesters targeting Turkish bases out of fear of potential abandonment by Ankara.

Erdogan maintains that any agreement with Damascus would safeguard returning Syrian refugees and rebels. However, Fabrice Balanche, a regional expert from Lyon University, warns of an impending humanitarian crisis.

"If the regime regains control of rebel areas, most residents will attempt to flee to Turkey. Turkey cannot accommodate four million additional refugees," Balanche cautions.

"These people are acutely aware that remaining under regime control, even with promised amnesties, puts them at risk of targeting by security forces, conscription, or worse. There's no real protection."

Despite ongoing tensions in Turkey over the Syrian refugee presence, Erdogan is seeking Putin's assistance to soften Assad's stance on negotiations.

The Turkish leader has proposed hosting a trilateral summit this summer, though there's been no positive response so far.

The current situation highlights the complex interplay of regional politics, humanitarian concerns and diplomatic manoeuvering in addressing the Syrian conflict and its far-reaching consequences.

• Syria's Assyrians flee to Turkey

Turkey's bid to join the BRICS trading group is the latest move in the Turkish President's delicate balancing act between Western and Eastern allies.

The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Almaty, Kazakhstan, provided a platform for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet in person.

Their encounter was marked by a display of cordiality, with both leaders appearing at ease and Putin emphasizing the significance of their bilateral relationship.

Active engagement

Putin, standing alongside Erdogan, stated, "We continue to actively engage on crucial matters of international politics." He further added, "Our communication is constant, and our respective ministries and departments regularly share information and align our stances on key issues." Erdogan was observed nodding in agreement with these remarks.

• Turkey set on rebuilding bridges with China to improve trade
• How Turkey's support for Ukraine is a double-edged sword

According to reports, a notable topic on the leaders' agenda was Turkey's aspiration to join BRICS, an economic alliance comprising Russia, China, and several nations from Asia, Africa, and South America. This potential membership represents a significant shift in Turkey's international alignments.

Atilla Yesilada, a Turkey analyst at GlobalSource Partners, explains, "A core principle of BRICS is reducing the dollar's role in mutual trade, which aligns with Turkey's interests." He argues that BRICS membership complements Turkey's broader foreign policy objectives, stating, "The concept of a new platform fostering trade among geographically distant countries naturally appeals to Turkey and fits its foreign policy stance."

Yesilada suggests that Turkey's BRICS bid serves an additional purpose: "It signals to Putin that Turkey intends to maintain and strengthen its growing commercial ties with Russia." This comes despite Putin's recent cautions to Turkey regarding its efforts to improve relations with its traditional Western allies.

The Russian leader strongly supports Turkey's BRICS membership bid. Ceren Ergenc, a China specialist at the Centre for European Policy Studies, posits that Moscow views Turkey's potential BRICS membership as a strategic move to balance Beijing's increasing influence within the group.

Turikey and BRICS

Putin strongly supports Turkey's BRICS membership bid. Ceren Ergenc, a China specialist at the Centre for European Policy Studies, suggests this support is part of Moscow's strategy to counterbalance Beijing's growing influence within BRICS.

Ergenc explains, "BRICS has become China's domain, with recent membership invitations primarily extended to countries China seeks closer ties with, effectively sidelining Russia and India as the group's other major powers."

Turkey's pursuit of BRICS membership coincides with its stalled EU accession process, hampered by Turkey's non-compliance with the EU's Copenhagen Criteria on human rights. This impasse is reportedly affecting Turkey's trade relations with the EU. Atilla Yesilada, a Turkey analyst, notes, "Erdogan's frustration with the EU's lack of progress on Turkey's accession and customs union update contributed to the BRICS bid."

However, Yesilada argues that Turkey's interest in BRICS transcends Erdogan's presidency, reflecting a broader foreign policy strategy. He states, "This aligns with Turkey's overarching policy goal, widely supported by the country's policy establishment, of maintaining independence from any single political bloc, be it Western or Eastern."

As Erdogan prepares to attend the NATO summit in Washington, where he's expected to reaffirm Turkey's Western security commitments, analysts view the BRICS bid as a clear indication that Ankara is diversifying its international partnerships beyond its traditional Western allies.

The EU on Friday congratulated Keir Starmer on Labour's election win in Britain, with European Council President Charles Michel calling it "historic". But Labour's landslide victory doesn't mean that London will turn back the clock on Brexit.

Keir Starmer has pledged to "make Brexit work" and seek "an ambitious" security pact with the the European Union.

But contrary to the hopes of many in the UK who may have hoped that London would return to the EU mainland fold, Labour is careful not to offend its pro-Brexit constituencies.

Over the years, especially in the north of England, many voters shifted to the pro-Brexit ideas of the Conservative party, afraid that EU immigrants would take away their jobs.

RFI talks to political scientist John Barry, of Queens University in Belfast, about how he thinks Brexit affected the UK economy, and if London will ever rejoin the common market.

This interview was carried out online.

Istanbul police now have some of the world's most expensive sports cars – spoils of seized assets in a crackdown on international organised crime. It's part of Ankara's efforts to escape international scrutiny over money laundering as it seeks global investment.

In the heart of Istanbul, onlookers gather around taking selfies of the police's latest addition to its carpool: a Ferrari. City police now boast some of the world's flashiest supercars, not only Ferraris but also Bentleys and Lexuses.

They're the pickings of a nationwide crackdown on international organised crime involving narcotics smuggling and money laundering.

Turkey's unique geography straddling Europe and Asia makes it an ideal centre for international crime.

"Turkey is in between the continents. So once you want to transfer a commodity which is illegal, it may be drugs, etc, you must have a step here," says Murat Aslan of the Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research, a think tank in Ankara.

"Most criminal gangs in Europe or the United States or South America have links to the ones here in Turkey – and that is why police have started operations, especially focusing on the ones who have warrants or arrest warrants by Interpol.

"It's a process, and Turkey is currently in the middle of it."

Interior Ministry videos show heavily armed police breaking down doors in the middle of the night at luxury addresses usually associated with Istanbul's high society.

Vast quantities of cash and guns are invariably recovered. Among those arrested are some of the world's most wanted criminals from Europe, Asia, and the United States, most connected to the illicit drugs trade, underlining Turkey's status as a hub for the European narcotics trade.

Last week, Turkish police, with their Spanish and French counterparts, broke up a European Central American drug cartel, resulting in dozens of arrests.

"According to Interpol and the Turkish police's narcotics department, Turkey has become a transshipment hub for Europe and the Middle East," says Atilla Yesilada, a Turkey analyst for Global Source Partners, another think tank.

"There are huge amounts of money floating around here."

• Turkey set on rebuilding bridges with China to improve trade

Yesilada says Turkey became a hub for international crime not only because of its geography but also because of the government's recent efforts to attract foreign currency to prop up the Turkish lira with a wealth amnesty.

"Look at our wealth amnesty, bring cash, bring diamonds, we don't really care. Just check it at the border or deposit it in a bank, and we'll never ask questions. This never-ask-questions part is, of course, completely in violation of the spirit of the global anti-money laundering legislation," Yesilada says.

Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya, at a recent press conference on the crackdown, announced that over 1,000 arrests – including 50 people wanted by Interpol – had been made this year, along with over 3 billion dollars in seized assets.

Yerlikaya says he's committed to ending Turkey's reputation as a haven for drug kingpins.

"Thirty-eight mafia-type organised crime gangs, seven of which were international and 31 of which were local, were broken up," Yerlikaya says.

"We consider drugs a global disaster in the Turkish century. Our main goal in the fight against drugs is to ensure that Turkey becomes an inaccessible and Prohibited Zone for drugs. We consider drug crime equivalent to terrorism."

• Turkey cuts trade with Israel but seeks role in resolving Gaza conflict

The crackdown follows the international anti-money laundering organisation the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) putting Turkey on its grey list of countries failing to combat global money laundering.

"Commercial banks and global funds are reluctant to do business with a country that's still on the grey list because, you know, too many sanctions," warns Yesilada.

Turkey's crackdown on organised crime and tightening of its financial controls are part of efforts to remove itself from the grey list and escape its damaging economic impact.

• Interpol fights crime and controversial image, 100 years on

"If we remain on the FATF grey list again, from the top of my head, 20 percent of the institutions that would otherwise be interested in investing in Turkey probably won't be able to do so because of compliance fears," Yesilada says.

"It is going to be a significant concern when this extensive due diligence work is undertaken, whether to make a particular investment in Turkey."

The Turkish government sees increasing international investment as key to solving the country's economic woes, which means the raids on wanted international crime figures seem set to continue, along with confiscating their valuable assets.

For the Istanbul police, the supply of fancy cars looks set to continue.

Protests in Turkey are intensifying over Azerbaijani oil deliveries to Israel. Despite Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan imposing a trade embargo on Israel over its war against Hamas, the trade, which passes through a Turkish port, continues.

Campaigners in Turkey advocating for a boycott of Israeli trade are focusing on Azerbaijan's oil supply to Israel via the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

Oil protests

Demonstrators from the group Thousand Youth for Palestine recently targeted the Istanbul headquarters of SOCAR, Azerbaijan's state energy company, splashing red paint over its walls.

Students at Istanbul's prestigious Galatasaray University  also protested against a speech by a senior SOCAR executive, accusing the company of having blood on its hands.

Experts say Azerbaijan, a close ally of Israel, meets around 40% of Israeli oil needs, a trade that has not been affected by Israel's war on Hamas.

"Until now, Azerbaijan has not stopped its oil exports to Israel. On the contrary, they are going as normal, and this again a manifestation of the reliability of Azerbaijan and that it is a true partner of Israel," explained Gallia Lindenstrauss, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

"I would even say that since Azerbaijan opened an embassy in Israel just a year ago, trade relations have actually expanded," added Lindenstrauss.  

Trade with Israel

Protests against Turkish-Israeli trade have hurt President Recep Tayyip Erdogan politically. Analysts say opposition to Israeli trade, along with an economic crisis, was a factor in March's local elections defeat of Erdogan's AK Party.

• Turkey cuts trade with Israel but seeks role in resolving Gaza conflict

"Had there not been the economic crisis, probably they (Turkish voters) wouldn't also be so concerned about the trade with Israel," Sezin Oney, a commentator on Turkey's Politikyol news portal, said.

"But the economic crisis somehow removed the rosy glasses, rose-colored glasses of so many people in Turkey, including the AK party supporters," Oney added. 

"So they started to see things as they are and criticize the government and even Erdogan directly."

Following his local election defeat, Erdogan imposed an Israeli trade embargo,  boasting that Turkey was taking the lead in standing up to Israel.

However, with the Turkish president having close ties with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev and Azerbaijan's SOCAR energy company, Turkey's biggest international investor, analysts say Baku retains leverage over Ankara.

• Erdogan’s local election defeat reshapes Turkey’s political landscape

• Turkey talks tough on Israel but resists calls to cut off oil

"Over the past few years, the Azeri-Israeli relationship has been consolidated; it is a bulwark against Iran as well in some regards," Mehmet Ogutcu of the London Energy Club, a grouping of government and energy sector leaders, said.

"Therefore, the Azeris, although I'm sure they are also unhappy with what's happening in Gaza as a result of the Israeli land forces attack, and they would probably impress on Erdogan not to go that far to stop this oil flow," added Ogutcu.

Protests in Turkey against Azerbaijani oil exports to Israel are ongoing, prompting police to arrest organizers and thereby triggering further demonstrations.

A mother of one of the detainees, addressing supporters outside an Istanbul courthouse, demanded to know why her son was detained for defending Palestine. The video of the speech went viral across Turkish social media.

Analysts suggest that such expressions of anger can only serve to further undermine Erdogan's claims of leading international protests against Israeli actions in Gaza.

"The Turkish government said that they stopped trade with Israel, but somehow, it's continuing in other ways,"  Sezin Oney of the Politikyol news portal, said

"So I think the real culprit, more so than Azerbaijan companies or Azerbaijan's Aliyev, or other circles in Azerbaijan itself, [is] the Turkish government, which is going to be held responsible by those protesting and by the conservative base specifically.

With many protesters drawn from Erdogan's traditionally religious conservative base, analysts warn the political cost for the Turkish leader over the ongoing oil trade with Israel is likely to grow.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's visit to China earlier this month is the latest diplomatic effort by Ankara to become a strategic trade hub between Europe and China. But Beijing's suspicions over Ankara's support of Chinese Uyghur dissidents is widely seen as an obstacle.

Bilateral trade and developing new trade routes were at the top of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's agenda for his recent China visit.

According to Cagdas Ungor, an expert on China and professor of political science at Istanbul's Marmara University, Turkey wants to be a part of the shift in global trading towards the Asia Pacific region.

"Turkey needs to rebuild all these connections in order to remain at the center of things, maintaining its bridge status between East and West," he explained to RFI.

Ankara is seeking backing from Beijing of its "Middle Corridor" trade route, which would link China with Europe via Turkey.

Until now, such efforts have made little progress, but Ungor says this could change due to the world economy resetting to circumvent sanction-hit Russia. 

Middle Corridor has been on the table between China and Turkey for a long time, Ungor says.

"The idea of it has become more popular now because of the Russian sanctions, and Europeans are now also interested in alternative channels. There's a window of opportunity," he says.

But Beijing is critical of Ankara offering refuge to China's predominantly Muslim Uyghur minority.

The Chinese have not forgotten that in 2009, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was Prime Minister, he described China's crackdown on Uyghurs as "near genocide".

• Beijing furious over damning UN rights report on Uyghurs in Xinjiang

The international community, including the United States and the European Union, have also accused China of incarcerating tens of thousands of its largest Muslim minority in camps in an effort to strip them of their Muslim identity. Beijing has denied these accusations, saying the camps are designed to combat separatism and weed out Islamist extremists.

Since then, the issue seems to have become water under the bridge, judging by the warm reception Turkey's diplomat was given on his China visit at the beginning of June.

Analysts say Fidan used more conciliatory language on the issue during his trip which included a stop in Xinjiang, home to many Uyghurs.

Ungor says the the Chinese were "happy" with Fidan's visit, as it further underlined Turkey's support for China's one-China policy.

"The official Chinese media focused on the fact that Turkey respects China's territorial integrity," Ungor says.

"And Fidan's remarks on Xinjiang's economic development, social harmony, respect for cultural rights" made a good impression, adds Ungor.

Turkey's pro-government media even praised Fidan for wearing a turquoise blue tie, the color of the Uyghur community and referring to the region's Turkic Muslim roots. 

• Erdogan hopes a U-turn can salvage Turkey's floundering economy

However, some members of the Uyghur diaspora were alarmed by Fidan's visit. 

Uyghur leader Seyit Tumturk, the head of East Turkistan National Assembly accused the Chinese administration of "trying to legitimise its own genocide" by with Fidan's visit to the Uyghur region.

Tumturk maintains that "Hakan Fidan saw what China wanted him to see, but no more," suggesting that if China had nothing to hide, then it should allow international independent observers to have the opportunity to go there "and visit not only places China says to see but also the back streets, to visit the households, and to determine the agony, pain, and torture there," he concludes.

Adding to Uyghur dissidents' unease over Fidan's China visit are growing rumors that Ankara is ready to acquiesce to Beijing's lobbying to ratify an extradition agreement held up in the Turkish parliament in the face of strong opposition. 

"The ultranationalist opposition claims that China got a promise from Fidan that the Turkish parliament will finally ratify an extradition treaty, which will allow Uyghurs to be sent back to China," explains China specialist Ceren Ergenc, a visiting fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies.

"There's no way that we can know if it's true or not, we need to wait and see. If it's correct, then it's a huge compromise from Turkey's side," adds Ergenc.

Such a compromise could help overcome Beijing's current reluctance to collaborate with Ankara. But any move by Ankara against the Uyghurs will be risky given the strong Turkish public support for the Chinese minority.

"China informally bypasses Turkey in its regional plans. Turkey is a wild card for China," claims Ergenc, adding that Turkey is also officially classified as a high-risk country for investment for Chinese companies.

"The Uyghur diaspora is very strong in Turkey in terms of the voter base of the conservative parties. So you never know how a statement like Erdogan's ten years ago could come and create a crisis between the two countries.

Turkish companies are emerging as significant suppliers of weapons to Ukraine and are supporting United States efforts to resolve Kyiv's ammunition shortages. However, this support is a challenge to Ankara's efforts to balance its relationship with Moscow and its Western allies.

Turkey has managed to tread a fine diplomatic line by maintaining ties with both Russia and Ukraine since Moscow invaded its pro-Western neighbour in February 2022. 

At the same time, Ankara has improved its relationship with the United States and has even coordinated with them in arms production to help Ukraine.

The United States' latest munitions factory in Texas, which goes online this month, uses the Turkish company Repkon's state-of-the-art equipment.

The new plant is vital to meeting the Ukrainian army's current shortages and ultimately aims to meet a third of the United States's needs.

Turkey analyst Sinan Ciddi of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies says Ukrainians are running low because they've been using the Allied-supplied Howitzers that require a certain kind of ammunition.

• France and allies launch 'artillery coalition' to bring more weapons to Ukraine

"This has been the essential sort of weapon of choice that has prevented up until recently, the advancement, and recapture of Ukrainian towns by Russian troops," he tells RFI.

"That Turkey is stepping into this is remarkable," Ciddi continues, "simply because Turkey has a vast ability not only to procure and manufacture, but it's a vital sort of supply line for the US, which is also actually starting to run low based on the amount of shells it has supplied the Ukrainian partner right."

The United States Ambassador to Turkey, Jeff Flake, praised the collaboration as a sign of the growing importance of deepening bilateral ties.

But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's close relations with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have been a source of tension between Ankara and Washington.

Since the outset of Russia's invasion, Ankara has supported Kyiv but remained neutral, refusing to enforce Western sanctions against Moscow.

Meanwhile, another Turkish company, Baykar, is building a military drone factory in Ukraine.

• Biden pledges $225m in fresh aid for Ukraine at Paris talks with Zelensky

"It's a little bit risky to establish a factory in Ukraine under the war conditions," warns defense analyst Tayfun Ozberk.

"It's very critical for Turkey, of course, establishing a factory in Ukraine – it has a political message, but it will not; I believe change Turkey's position in this war," added Ozberk.

For Sine Ozkarasahin, an independent Turkish defense analyst, "Turkey's definitely walking on thin ice."

Doubling down on support for Ukraine will surely test Ankara's policy of balancing ties with Moscow and its Western allies, she says.

Ozkarasahin maintains that this balancing act with Russia is very much Turkey's current diplomatic policy, which she calls  "compartmentalisation, or "agree to disagree".

It means that Turkey and Russia can have different agendas on ongoing war in Ukraine or the situation in Syria, but still collaborate in different domains, such as energy trade.

"Ankara separates these things from each other, which forms one of the main pillars of its policy towards Russia and in the end, Turkey's a critical lifeline for Russia," she says.

While Turkey's defense industry is increasing its support for Ukraine and Western allies' efforts to supply the Ukrainian military, Ankara remains a vital trading partner with Russia.

• Turkey agrees deal to clear Black Sea of mines that threaten Ukrainian exports

Sinan Ciddi points out that the US Treasury has sanctioned Turkish companies supplying duel-use goods to the Russian military, including microchips, parts that go directly into the manufacture of high-end Russian weaponry that is being used against the Ukrainians.

"Turkey is playing both sides of this," he says, warning that Washington and Ukraine could pay a considerable price for Ankara's support.

"It really does put the US in a bind, having to keep increasingly or consistently quiet about Turkey's double dipping, and so it's a double-edged sword," Ciddi says.

Turkey's longest-running peaceful protest has entered its thousandth week. For decades, the "Saturday Mothers" have been holding silent vigils to demand justice for relatives who disappeared while being held by security forces.

At Galatasaray Square, in the heart of Istanbul, a mother calls out for justice for a child who's not been seen for decades – since being apprehended by police.

The Saturday Mothers, named after a similar campaign in Argentina, gather in this square to demand answers. They want to know what happened to their missing relatives, and to hold those responsible to account.

On display are hundreds of photos of those who disappeared while being held by security forces. Among the youngest is a 13-year-old shepherd called Davut.

Ikbal Eren has been campaigning for decades to find the truth behind her brother Hayrettin's enforced disappearance.

"Hayrettin Eren was detained at the Saraçhane crossing in Istanbul and taken to the Gayrettepe police headquarters, where he disappeared," Eren says.

"Although we have five witnesses confirming his detention, they always deny he was held. We also saw his car in the yard of the Security Directorate."

Even if 44 more years pass, Eren says he will not give up seeking justice for his brother and the others who are missing.

Hayrettin vanished during military rule in the 1980s, but most of the hundreds of enforced disappearances happened in the 1990s at the height of the Turkish state's war against the Kurdish rebel group, the PKK.

"Especially in the early '90s – '92 to '94 mostly – an enormous number of mainly men were arrested and never seen again," says Emma Sinclair Webb of Human Rights Watch.

• Armenian genocide remembered as Assyrians fight for acknowledgement of their plight

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised justice in 2011, when he was prime minister, after meeting with some of the Saturday Mothers.

There were criminal investigations into those accused of being behind the disappearances, and even court cases, but all ended in acquittal.

The state has cracked down on the mothers in recent years, deeming their protest to be subversive. Galatasaray Square is now permanently sealed off, and usually only a weekly token of 10 or so people are allowed in.

"Those in power cannot bear to have these women and the relatives of the disappeared meeting every Saturday and presenting them with the crimes the state committed," said Sinclair Webb.

"For years the authorities have done everything in their power to criminalise this vigil and those who have been involved in it."

The thousandth week anniversary of Saturday Mothers, held in May, saw an outpouring of support across social media – and even a pop music video commemorating their struggle.

Rock star Teoman recorded the song "Saturday Mothers", recalling the fight for justice in the face of intimidation and adversity. The song's video went viral across social media.

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With the Saturday Mothers campaign passing the thousand-week threshold, they're vowing to continue until they find justice for their lost relatives.

"We are trying to explain that our disappeared are not abandoned; they are not orphans. We are trying to learn about their fate," says Birsen Karakoc, who's been searching for her brother Ridvan since the 1990s.

"We are trying to understand why they were tortured to death. We want justice; that is why we are here every week.

"For 30 years we have been here since the first week, and we will continue to be here."

At the end of the 1,000th-week ceremony in Galatasaray Square, Birsen's brother Hasan places flowers on a sculpture celebrating the Turkish Republic.

He calls out to onlookers to say: "Until all our disappeared are found and those responsible are brought to justice, we will never give up."