International report

Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi was laid to rest on Thursday, concluding days of funeral rites attended by thousands of mourners after his death in a helicopter crash last week. Experts say the tragedy may well increase tensions between Iran and Turkey, both vying for influence in the Middle East.

Hundreds of thousands marched in Raisi's home town Mashhad to bid farewell ahead of his burial following processions in the cities of Tabriz, Qom, Tehran and Birjand.

The 63-year-old died on Sunday alongside his Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and six others after their helicopter went down in the country's mountainous northwest while returning from a dam inauguration on the border with Azerbaijan.

A huge search and rescue operation was launched, involving help from the European Union, Russia and Turkey before the crash site was located early on Monday.

• Iran’s President Raisi killed in helicopter crash, EU sends condolences

The Iranian military said that a drone dispatched by Turkey had failed to locate the crash site "despite having night-vison equipment".

"Finally, in the early hours of Monday morning, the exact spot of the helicopter crash was discovered by the ground rescue forces and Iranian drones of the armed forces," the military said in a statement carried by the official IRNA news agency.

Meanwhile, on Thursday Iran's army said it has so far found no evidence of criminal activity related to the crash.

Simmering tensions

The high profile deaths come as rivalry continues to intensify between Iran and Turkey.  

"For Turkey, the future of South Caucasia, Iraq and Syria are critical for its national security. And here in these areas of Turkey, all face Iranian opposition against Turkey's interests," explained Bilgehan Alagoz, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Marmara University. 

For example, the Turkish military is poised to launch a major offensive in Iraq and Syria against the bases of the Kurdish rebel group PKK, which is fighting the Turkish state.

Ankara has repeatedly criticised Tehran for failing to support its efforts, while  Iran is concerned about Turkey encroaching in areas it considers to be in its sphere of influence. 

• Turkey's Erdogan targets support against Kurdish rebels during Iraq trip

The death of Raisi has brought to the fore bitter memories of the killing by the United States four years ago of Qasim Soleimani, the veteran head of the international operations of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp.

"These two important personalities had been increasing Iranian influence in the Middle East very strongly," observed Professor of International Relations Huseyin Bagci at Ankara's Middle East Technical University. 

Bagci says Turkey's diplomatic advantage will no doubt be stronger as Iran heads into presidential elections on 28 June.

"I don't know if the new foreign minister and President will somehow get the same level of this influence because they will be mostly inexperienced people," he says.

Internal fight for power

Bagci suggests that a real internal fight for power will be problematic for the country because "Iranian society is much more dynamic and progressive than the regime.

"There is a partnership between the clerics and the military. But these two institutions are also fighting amongst each other."

However, if Iran's Revolutionary Guard increases its power, experts warn that it could also result in a more assertive use of Iranian proxies controlled by the IRGC in Iraq and Syria, which are often as odds with Turkish interests.

Alagoz says that the IRGC's view of the region is very problematic because the Iran proxies are a problem for the future of the Middle East.

"The overconfidence of the IRGC combined with political power will be a destabilising factor in the Middle East, and so Turkey will always be concerned by this issue."

With Ankara and Tehran competing for power from Syria and Iraq to Sudan, analysts say the outcome of Iran's transition of power could have significant implications across the region and for Turkish-Iranian relations.

Greece and Turkey are stepping up rapprochement efforts, with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visiting Turkey on Monday for talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The trip is part of detente attempts after years of tensions centered on territorial disputes in the Aegean Sea. 

Monday's meeting follows Erdogan's visit to Athens last December, which was also part of mutual efforts towards bringing the countries closer.

"I think it's one of the ways in which Turkey and Greece could add more new momentum to the diplomacy that has started," Berkay Mandiraci, a senior Turkey analyst for the International Crisis Group, said.

"They've been actually engaged in quite intense diplomacy on different fronts for over a year now."

Territorial disputes over the Aegean Sea – believed to have vast energy reserves – have brought the neighbours to the brink of war in the past.

Both nations backing rival sides over the divided island of Cyprus has also thwarted previous rapprochement endeavours.

Side-stepping issues 

Erdogan and Mitsotakis are predicted to avoid contentious subjects and are expected to take a one-step-at-a-time approach on areas of collaboration.

Confidence-building measures under discussion include increasing trade, further developments of a recently expanded road at the Turkey-Greece border and ensuring visa-free travel to Turkish citizens for eastern Aegean islands.

"I think they are all important in terms of people-to-people contact, building trust, increasing trade and also improving connectivity and energy cooperation," Mandiraci said.

"Hopefully this will lead to the opening of a new round of negotiation on the Aegean dispute."

Conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine are seen to provide further incentive to improving ties as analysts say both leaders realise that bilateral tensions will only exacerbate regional instability. 

"Look at what's happening in Israel, in Gaza and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Both sides want to limit their exposure to foreign risks," said political scientist Ioannis Grigoriadis of Ankara's Bilkent University.

"Greek-Turkish relations had gone through a very difficult period until five years ago, but ever since the earthquakes that hit south-eastern and southern Turkey, both sides have declared their willingness to reduce tensions."

Greece was quick to help Turkey after last year's earthquakes. But unless territorial disputes over the Aegean are addressed, the rapprochement is considered vulnerable – especially because both militaries are re-arming.

Common ground

"As long as they don't tackle [the Aegean Sea dispute] and they don't take the bull by the horns, things will go like a pendulum, backward and forwards," said Alexis Heraclides of Panteion University in Athens.

"The Greek-Turkish relations in this region is the most complicated of relations. I'm not saying that it's impossible for them not to make a U-turn and get back to the default position of confrontation and mutual acrimonious accusations."

But there is cause for cautious optimism given that Erdogan and Mitsotakis renewed their electoral mandates last year.

"Both leaders are very strong domestically and this makes them less eager to listen to the sort of nationalist voices that exist in both countries that are more comfortable with a more aggressive attitude," said Grigoriadis.

Turkey has cut off trade with Israel as bilateral relations deteriorate over the Gaza conflict. The move follows domestic calls for a tougher stance against Israel, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking a more prominent regional role.  

The Turkish Trade Ministry announced Friday that all exports and imports with Israel have been cut until uninterrupted and adequate humanitarian aid is allowed into Gaza.

The Israeli foreign minister, Israel Katz, was quick to condemn the move, saying it violated trade agreements and was the action was that of a "dictator". 

It follows Erdogan's high-profile meeting with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh last month.

Domestic criticism

Erdogan's actions are seen as an attempt to quell growing domestic criticism of his complicated stance on the war – on one hand maintaining trade with Israel, while on the other condemning the country's war with Hamas. 

"In order to convince conservative voters that there is no such thing as a hypocritical approach... they are taking a tougher stance and necessary measures," says Selin Nasi, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics.  

Nasi says Erdogan could further deepen Turkey's ties with Hamas, especially if cut theirs.

"We know that Qatar has been facing a lot of pressure in the international arena because of its ties with Hamas," she points out.

"Turkey might emerge as a potential candidate country to host Hamas if Qatar decides to send Hamas members abroad."

• Turkish government looks to regain ground by limiting ties with Israel

Regional cooperation?

Erdogan's party was handed a thumping defeat in March local elections, which saw many of his traditional conservative religious voters abstaining or voting for opposition parties – a move blamed in part on ongoing trade ties with Israel.

However, Ankara is seeking a wider role in resolving the Gaza conflict. Erdogan is also stepping up diplomatic efforts with Egypt after hosting Egyptian foreign minister Sameh Shoukry in April.

Relations between Turkey and Egypt have been warming after years of tensions, and analysts say there's room for cooperation.   

"Both are very active in the rhetorical space in terms of their deep sympathy for the Palestinians in Gaza. At the same time, they maintain their diplomatic and security ties with Israel," says Jalel Harchaoui at the Royal United Services Institute in London.

"Both are known – particularly Egypt, from Washington's perspective – for their direct communication line [with Hamas]. Both use that as a source of leverage vis-a-vis the West," he explains.

• Turkey and Egypt turn page on decade of friction with show of friendship

But analysts warn Erdogan's public attacks on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu limit any mediating role for Turkey. 

"At some point, the government has to moderate its tone, to repair its dialogue with Israel, because as it stands Turkey is no longer perceived as an impartial, third-party actor that can take on a role as a mediator," says Nasi. 

She nonetheless believes there is room for Ankara to play a constructive role.

"Instead of perhaps endorsing Hamas, Turkey has to shift to a more balanced position between Hamas and Fatah and perhaps put its energy and resources into reconciling different rival Palestinian factions."

Washington visit postponed

Erdogan this month blamed Iran and Israel for increasing tensions, a break from only criticising Israel. Analysts say Turkey's close ties to Hamas could counter Iran's influence on the group. 

However, Erdogan's overtures to Hamas were a factor in the postponement of a planned visit to Washington in May, which was blamed on scheduling issues. 

"It's impossible not to rule out Gaza as one of the reasons for the cancellation," said Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

"I think at a time when people are talking about mass graves and there are protests all around US campuses, the Turkish president does not want to be seen with the president of the United States," she suggests.

However, Aydintasbas suspects Washington, too, may not be unhappy about that Erdogan's visit was put on hold. 

"I don't think the White House is in a place – for all types of reasons, including the domestic difficulty of this issue – to be hosting a world leader who's going to criticise in front of cameras the US position on Gaza," she says.

Despite the visit's postponement, Washington and Ankara say they remain committed to high-level cooperation.

While doubts remain about what meaningful role Turkey can play in resolving the Gaza conflict, given the scale of the crisis, the region needs all the help it can get. 

A group of international activists are seeking to break Israel's blockade of Gaza with a flotilla of vessels carrying aid. But with 10 people killed by Israeli security forces in a similar mission 14 years ago, fears are growing that the latest flotilla could provoke a fresh crisis. 

The loading of medical supplies and food is underway on the Akdeniz, an old ferry boat that will lead the flotilla of three ships carrying over 5,000 tonnes of aid to Gaza.

At a press conference, the flotilla's organisers, a coalition of international and Turkish humanitarian groups, claimed the flotilla is not just about delivering aid.  

"We hope to break the illegal naval blockade of Gaza that Israel has had on it for decades," Ann Wright of US Boat to Gaza explained to RFI. 

Wright acknowledged the aid they plan to deliver will do little to alleviate the humanitarian crisis but hopes it will open the door to more assistance.

"We hope to certainly bring food and medicines that are needed by the people of Gaza. But it's a small drop in the bucket. We're calling for the border of Rafah to be opened, where tons of food are waiting. It's criminal that the world has not forced the entry of these trucks into Gaza." 

Wright said the issue was being forced because "people that are starving and suffering genocide must have assistance".

If the governments won't act, "we, the citizens will", she said.

Flotilla in 2010

In 2010, ten people died the last time a flotilla sought to break Israel's Gaza blockade.

When Israeli commandos intercepted the Mavi Marmara, which was leading the flotilla, activists said they were aware of the dangers they faced, but given the humanitarian crisis in Gaza it was a risk worth taking.

• France condemns killing of Gaza NGO workers as US pressed to toughen stance with Israel
• Turkish court indicts Israeli soldiers two years after flotilla raid

"We are conscious that it's not a mission without any danger," said Nima Machouf is with the group, Canada Boat to Gaza.

"But the danger and the horror is part of the horror that we want to denounce that it is faced by Palestinian people. Gaza people need medical support and need food."

Flotilla participants are given lessons on how to de-escalate a possible confrontation with Israeli forces. There has been no comment from Israeli officials.

Gallia Lindenstrauss, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Avi, warns the risks are real given the tensions in the region.

"Both on the Israeli side and on the Turkish side, there is an understanding of how dangerous things might get out of hand. So I think there will be caution, both from the Turkish side and the Israeli side," said Lindenstrauss.

"But obviously, this is a very, very intense time now in Israel. And, also, I would be very careful, and hope that, the authorities are on both sides are aware of what they need to do to make sure that this will not escalate into violence."

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is likely to have the final say on whether the flotilla will leave, has not commented on the mission. 

But Erdogan met with Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh last Saturday, in which humanitarian aid to Gaza was discussed – a meeting Israel condemned. 

Whatever risks flotilla organisers say they are determined to deliver aid to Gaza.

"Of course, we are worried, but, we think that, the time is now to act," said Torstein Dahle, a former Norwegian parliamentarian of Ship to Gaza Norway. 

But Dahle says the flotilla is looking for international protection.

"We demand support from national governments, from everybody who has influence on this matter, to facilitate the supply of humanitarian aid to the starving people of Gaza," he said.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits Iraq on Monday for the first time in 12 years. He'll be seeking support for Ankara's war against Kurdish rebels in Iraq as well as deeper economic ties. 

With Turkish forces continuing their build-up for a major offensive against the Kurdish rebel group the PKK, enlisting Iraq's support is expected to top Erdogan's agenda in Baghdad.

The PKK has for decades used Iraqi territory to wage war against the Turkish state. Erdogan's visit is part of a new approach to Baghdad in fighting the PKK.

"Turkey wants to start a comprehensive strategy that has an economic, social, and security base," said Murat Aslan, a senior security analyst for the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, an Ankara-based think tank.

"In the meantime, expanding the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces may make Iraq much safer, and Turkey may feel more secure."

Breakthrough

Last month, Ankara achieved a diplomatic breakthrough when Baghdad banned the PKK.

Erdogan will have also leverage when he visits Iraq. Iraq is suffering a severe drought and Baghdad has repeatedly called on Ankara to release more water from dams controlling rivers serving Iraq.

This week, Erdogan said he is ready to consider Baghdad's pleas.

"One of the most important agenda items of our visit is the water issue," Erdogan told reporters.

"Baghdad has made some requests regarding water and we are working on these issues.

"We will make efforts to resolve this issue with them. They already want to resolve this matter. We will take steps in this direction."

Bilateral trade

Deepening bilateral trade is also a key part of the Turkish leader's visit. Ankara seeks to increase international transit through Iraq as part of a planned new trade route between China and Europe.

"The main backbone of this upcoming presidential visit to Iraq, to Baghdad and Erbil, will be the new so-called development road," said Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in Iraq.

"It will connect the port of Basra to the Turkish border, to Habur, or to a new border gate. Perhaps it will have a railroad, and then parallel to it, there will be a highway. And that will be an oil and gas pipeline."

Erdogan also said he may visit Erbil, the capital of semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan, with whom the Turkish leader has developed close ties.

However, Iran could thwart the goal of expanding Turkish influence in Iraq.

"In Baghdad, the sun does not shine without the approval of Iran, of course," warned Selcen, who works as a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's Medyascope news portal.

"So how will Ankara be able to align all these stars and build a capacity to cooperate with it? It's still debatable to me, and it looks unrealistic to me."

Balance

However, some experts say Baghdad is looking to Ankara to balance Tehran's influence, especially as speculation grows over the withdrawal of United States forces from Iraq, one of the few checks to Iran.

"My hunch is that the Iraqi government wishes to free itself at least somewhat from the grip of Iranian influence and Turkey can be a balancer," said Soli Ozel, who teaches international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University.

 "I think Turkey would like to be a balancer here because Turkey, just like every other country in the region, is not all that happy with the kind of power that Iran has in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen." 

The Turkish government has announced restrictions on Israeli trade, along with the suspension of scheduled flights to Israel. The moves come in the aftermath of a shock defeat for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's party in nationwide local elections, in which the opposition targeted trade with Israel amid growing condemnation over the war in Gaza.

Turkish Airlines announced that it will not resume flights to Israel until March next year.

At the same time, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced sanctions on Israel after aid deliveries to Gaza were blocked by Israel.

"We have submitted our request to join this aid operation with cargo planes belonging to our air force. We learned today that our request – which had been approved by Jordanian authorities – was rejected by Israel," Fidan told a press conference.

"There can be no excuse for Israel preventing our attempts to send aid from the air to our Gazan brothers who are fighting hunger. In response to this situation, we have decided to take a series of new measures against Israel," he said.

Ankara has banned the export of 54 products to Israel, including aviation fuel, steel, and cement.

Fidan said the export ban would remain in force until Israel declares a ceasefire and allows aid to be delivered unhindered.

• Turkey under fire after declaring Hamas a 'liberation' group
• Iran leader to visit Turkey as rapprochement continues over Gaza war

'Hypocritical stance'

Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz condemned the Turkish sanctions, accusing Ankara of supporting Hamas, and warned of retaliation.

The trade restrictions come amidst growing criticism in Turkey of the ruling AKP party's stance of condemning Israel's war on Hamas but maintaining trade relations, which the opposition claims supports the Israeli military war effort.

The government's stance had become untenable, argues Soli Ozel, a lecturer in international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University.

There is "pressure from the public over this hypocritical stance on Israel", he says. "You have all these AKP-related businesses or AKP politicians very closely, intimately trading with Israel and stuff. They [the government] had to respond somewhat; they had to show that they were doing something."

Suspending Turkish Airlines flights was the "best, most effective, and most visible way of doing it", according to Ozel.

"I think there must be over 30 daily flights, and this was supposed to be one of the most profitable lines that Turkish Airlines operate."

Electoral meltdown

Last month, President Erdogan's AKP suffered its worst electoral defeat to date in nationwide local elections.

The Islamist Yeniden Refah Party – led by Fatih Erbakan, son of Erdogan's former political mentor Necmettin Erbakan – targeted the AKP's religious base, focusing his campaign on condemning the Turkish president for continuing to trade with Israel.

"Fatih Erbakan is once again an important figure apparently," observes Istar Gozaydin, a specialist on Turkish religion and state relations at Istanbul's Istinye University.

"I think the sort of end is near for AKP, but I guess it will be replaced by the Yeniden Refah Party," he adds.

Crucial relations

Protests in Turkey are continuing against relations with Israel. However, Israeli analysts say trade and travel are vital to maintain bilateral ties at times of diplomatic tension. 

"It's unprecedented; there's for so long no flights from Turkey to Israel and from Israel to Turkey, and that's a damage to the relationship," warns Gallia Lindenstrauss, an expert with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

"Also for business relationships, it's very important to have a regular transport route." 

• With spy raids, Turkey warns Israel not to seek Hamas revenge on Turkish soil
• Turkey talks tough on Israel but resists calls to cut off oil

"There were things that kept the relations going, even though the political relations were in crisis," she explains.

"And one element was the economic relations, and part of this was also the travel connections and the transport connections between Turkey and Israel, and the fact that people-to-people relations were enabled."

All eyes on Gaza

Even when Israeli forces in 2010 killed 10 Turkish citizens delivering aid by ship to Gaza, flights and trade between the countries were unaffected.

But analysts warn given the magnitude of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and Israel's ongoing war against Hamas, this time could be different.

"This is a goddamn massacre that's going on for six months that people are watching live," says international relations expert Ozel.

"People are watching live, and this is truly unconscionable; that's why the level of protest on this particular issue of trading with Israel has increased as the devastation became even worse."

With Israeli forces poised to launch a new offensive into Gaza, protests against ongoing Turkish trade with Israel are predicted to grow – and add further pressure on Erdogan.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's worst electoral defeat in nationwide municipal elections has changed Turkey's political landscape. However, the Opposition's victory came at an awkward time. Turkey's Western allies were looking to strengthen ties with the Turkish President. 

Turkey's main opposition CHP (Republican People’s Party) gains in nationwide local elections are a significant reversal of the party's fortunes after Erdogan's resounding reelection last May.

"After the opposition's loss in the May elections, everybody thought the opposition was in a state of despair," explains Can Selcuki, head of Istanbul polling firm Economics Research.

"But that doesn't seem to be the case, and it's a turning point for the Turkish political landscape.

"It's the first time since 1977 that CHP has managed to come out number one in the popular vote."

Threat of authoritarianism

With much of the media under his control and the judiciary targeting dissent, critics claim Erdogan's grip on power is tightening.

Addressing supporters on election night Ekrem Imamoglu, the re-elected CHP mayor for Istanbul who Erdogan personally tried to unseat, claimed his victory was a stand against the global threat of authoritarianism.

"Today is a pivotal moment not only for Istanbul, but for democracy itself. As we celebrate our victory, we send a message that will reverberate worldwide,” Imamoglu told thousands of jubilant supporters.

"Democracy's decline is now ending," continued the mayor, "Istanbul stands as a beacon of hope, a testament to the resilience of democratic values in the face of growing authoritarianism."

• Deepfake videos used in local elections in Turkey as Erdogan battles for Istanbul
• Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries u
• Prosecutor seeks prison terms for alleged PKK members on trial in Paris

Muted reactions

Despite this,Turkey's Western allies' response to the CHP's resounding victory was muted.

"There were no congratulations extended, even to Turkey's democracy, let alone to the opposition itself," Sezin Oney, a commentator for Turkey's Politikyol news portal, said.

“[This] is a big contrast compared to the May elections because right after the May elections, the Western leaders, one after the other, extended their congratulations to Erdogan.

"So there is a recognition that Erdogan is here to stay, and they don't want to make him cross. And given that there is the Ukraine war on one side and the Gaza war on the other, they want a stable Turkey.”

Turkey's location, bordering the Middle East and Russia, makes Ankara a critical ally for Europe and the United States in international efforts to control migration and contain Russia.

Ahead of the March polls, Erdogan had been engaged in rapprochement with his Western allies, with Washington even inviting the Turkish President for a summit in May.

However, Erdogan could still pose a headache to his Western allies as he ramps up his nationalist rhetoric in the aftermath of his defeat.

"We are determined to show that terrorism has no place in the future of Türkiye and the region," Erdogan said Thursday. "With the recent elections, this determination has been further strengthened."

Massive military offensive

Meanwhile, Erdogan has warned that his army is poised to launch a massive military offensive into Northern Iraq and Syria against the Kurdish group PKK, including affiliates that work with American forces in fighting the Islamic State.

A crackdown on the PKK, analysts say, will play well with conservative nationalist voters. Those voters were the ones with which the opposition scored its biggest successes in Central Turkey – a region known as Anatolia - for the first time in a generation.

"CHP has never been successful in those places before. These are places that are considered to be religiously conservative, or at least conservative," Istar Gozaydin, a Turkish religion and state relations expert at Istanbul's Istinye University, said.

"And that's also valid for Central Anatolia. Central Anatolia is usually much more nationalist and much more religiously sensitive, but for the first time, they've been successful.”

It is not the first time Erdogan has sought to play the nationalist card. After the 2015 general election in which the president's AK Party lost its parliamentary majority, Erdogan launched military operations against the PKK across Turkey's predominantly Kurdish region, leveling many city centres.

Erdogan’s action resulted in his AK Party taking power in a second election later that year.

Fix the economy

"I'm sure there's a temptation," said analyst Can Selcuki, "but the facts on the ground do not allow it. Erdogan needs to fix the economy."

Turkey's near 70% inflation and 50% interest rates, were widely seen as key factors in AK Party's defeat. But analyst Sezin Oney of Turkey's Politikyol news portal says a new conflict could change the political rules of the game.

"The economy is a concern, but there is a war psyche, then he [Erdogan] might be propagating," Oney added..

Some Turkish analysts say the opposition victory will be viewed privately as inconvenient by some of Turkey's Western allies coming at a time of growing cooperation with Erdogan, with the fear now that Erdogan's resounding defeat could make the Turkish leader unpredictable at a critical time in both the Middle East and Russia's war with Ukraine.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to end the threat posed by Kurdish rebel group the PKK, which has been fighting Turkey for decades. As Turkey prepares to launch a major military operation against the organisation in Iraq, it is looking to other governments in the region for support.

Turkish forces have been carrying out military operations in northern Iraq for the last two years against bases of the PKK, which has been fighting for Kurdish minority rights in Turkey for decades.

But Erdogan is now vowing to permanently end the threat posed by the PKK and its affiliates in neighbouring Syria.

"We have preparations that will give new nightmares to those who think that they will bring Turkey to its knees with a 'Terroristan' along our southern borders," the Turkish president bellowed earlier this month.

According to Mesut Casin, a presidential adviser and professor of international politics at Istanbul's Yeditepe University, the military operation is expected to take aim at PKK targets along the more than 300km border that Turkey shares with Iraq.

"By securing the Iraq border, Turkey is expected to create a 40km new security corridor, similar to the one in Syria," he said.

But Casin also stressed that, to end the PKK threat, Ankara is looking beyond military means to a new model of military and diplomatic cooperation with the leaders of Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan.

Regional cooperation

Ankara got a boost in its war against the PKK this month when Baghdad banned the Kurdish group.

Erdogan is also developing close ties with the leadership of Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan regional government in Erbil.

Such cooperation is seen as vital to Ankara's goal of eradicating the PKK threat.

"Turkey will focus on the capacity of Iraqi security forces, together with the Kurdish regional government's Peshmerga [Iraqi Kurdish soldiers]," explained Murat Aslan, an analyst with Turkish think tank the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research.

"Turkey wants a full encirclement of all PKK members in Iraq and then to destroy them, neutralise them," Aslan said.

New leverage

In April, Erdogan is scheduled to visit both Erbil and Baghdad, where the PKK is expected to top the agenda.

Enhanced bilateral trade and increasing international transit trade through Iraq to Turkey is seen as giving Erdogan new leverage with Baghdad.

"The carrot is the new so-called 'Development Road', which will connect Basra port to to the Turkish border, to Habur or to a new border gate," said Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in Iraq.

"Perhaps it will have a railroad, then a parallel highway, which will bring billions of US dollars to Baghdad's coffers," continued Selcen, now a regional analyst for Turkey's Medyascope news portal. 

"For that project to be realistic, there should be stability and security in Iraq. So in a way, Ankara wishes to repackage the combat against PKK within that project."

• France becomes first EU country to open visa service in Mosul, Iraq

Iran question

However, analysts predict Iran's cooperation will also be needed, given that the PKK headquarters are located in the mountainous Qandil region.

"Why is Iran important? Because the Qandil mountains are not only in Iraq. They are divided between Iran and Iraq," explained analyst Aslan.

• Four decades later, veterans of the Iran-Iraq war still can't forget

"Whenever an operation is planned and implemented in the region, [the PKK] go to Iran, enjoy a safe haven, and come back," he said.

"So this campaign should be complemented by Iranian efforts, but it's not guaranteed. We will see what happens."

With the rivalry between Turkey and Iran increasing across the region, Tehran may be reluctant to accommodate Ankara's demands. That could add to ongoing bilateral tensions, giving the PKK room to escape the tightening Turkish grip.

A naval agreement between Turkey and Somalia positions the Turkish navy in a strategically vital region, underlining Ankara's growing ambitions at sea. But analysts warn that the deal threatens to escalate tensions with Somalia's neighbour, Ethiopia.

Under a ten-year defence agreement ratified earlier this month, the Turkish navy will help protect Somalia's territorial waters and facilitate training and equipment for the Somali navy.

The deal is just the latest step in Ankara's deepening relationship with Mogadishu.

"Not only is this the location of Turkey's largest international military base, it's also the location of Turkey's largest embassy in the world," explains Norman Ricklefs, chair of multinational consultancy group Namea.

"This shows the importance Turkey has placed on Somalia, and rebuilding Somalia as a major state in the Horn of Africa, and making Somalia's future success part of Turkey's broader strategic goals in eastern Africa in the Red Sea region," he says.

Turkey also signed an energy exploration deal with Somalia this month. The East African country is believed to have major oil and gas reserves both on land and within its territorial waters.

Blue-water navy 

Experts see the deepening of ties with Somalia as part of growing international competition for influence in this strategically vital region.

"This will provide Turkey an opportunity to increase its influence in the Horn of Africa," says Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu, an associate professor of African studies at Ankara's Social Sciences University.

"Because all those external countries – Gulf countries, Western countries... even Japan – have bases in Djibouti, they are all vying to increase their development in the region, especially for economic purposes. So this is also an opportunity for Turkey," she says.

The Somali deal comes as Ankara rapidly expands its navy's so-called "blue-water" capabilities – the ability to operate on the open oceans, far from the country's home ports.

Turkey has built up a fleet of energy research ships and a growing navy.

"[Naval expansion] focuses on the projection of Turkish military capacity in the maritime domain – both in protecting its own exclusive economic zones and waters, while also helping its allies and partners to do the same," explains Sine Ozkarasahin, an independent defence analyst.

"And Somalia has been facing an increased threat of piracy."

Tensions with Ethiopia

Turkey's deepening military ties with Somalia come as the Horn of Africa nation faces tension with its neighbour, Ethiopia.

In January, Ethiopia infuriated Somalia by signing an agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland, giving Addis Ababa long-desired sea access.

But Mehmet Ozkan of the Turkish National Defence University says Ankara is well placed to contain any fallout, given its ties with Ethiopia. 

"Military cooperation, personal cooperation, the personal relationship between the leaders – I think relations are pretty good," he says.

"Because in the region everybody is looking for security cooperation, and it's same for Ethiopia... Turkey is a security provider for Ethiopia as well."

• Turkey and Italy consider teaming up to seek new influence in Africa

'Drone diplomacy'

With Turkish-made military drones widely used by both the Ethiopian and Somali militaries in their wars against insurgencies, Ankara's so-called "drone diplomacy" has been instrumental in balancing its relations with rivals.

"Turkey has also probably supplied some drones to Somalia – which are operated by Turkish operators, not Somalis – but they've been useful in the conflict against Al-Shabaab," explains analyst Ricklefs.

"I know Turkey has a good relationship with Ethiopia. It has a good relationship with Somalia. So its presence in Somalia is more likely than not – given Turkey's broader strategic aims in the region – to have a stabilising effect rather than a destabilising effect," he argues.

• Newly reconciled, Turkey and Egypt could be a force for stability in Africa

However, Africa expert Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu warns that, given the region's volatility, Ankara will still need to tread carefully.

"In the long run, this might lead to Turkey's involvement in regional conflicts. This is what Turkey was trying to avoid in its Africa policy: it does not want to be a part of African conflicts, but it might be dragged into [them]," she says.

As Turkey extends its influence in one of the most volatile parts of the world, analysts suggest Ankara will need to perfect its diplomatic balancing skills.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is leading a battle to regain control of Istanbul in hotly contested local elections this month. However, opposition media is warning about deepfake videos in campaign ads, while international rights groups are voicing alarm over social media companies' willingness to comply with Turkish censorship ahead of the critical polls.

Polls show the elections are going to be a tight contest. But as Erdogan's AK Party steps up efforts to regain control of Istanbul, an artificial intelligence-generated video of incumbent mayor Ekrem Imamoglu praising Erdogan for his achievements in Istanbul has been circulating on social media. 

Independent media warn of the threat of fake news, as mainstream media, which is mostly under government control, are not verifying the authenticity of the videos.

Deepfake videos

"Deepfake videos are usually not posted on news sites, but they reach millions of people as advertisements. These stick to the candidate." explains Hikmet Adal , social media editor at Bianet, an independent news portal.

"The voting segment in Turkey is 40 million. When you ask people if Ekrem Imamoglu actually said this, they will say 'he did' because they only follow the mainstream media," added Adal.

During last year's presidential elections, Erdogan used a video falsely showing his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu with leaders of the Kurdish separatist group the PKK, which is fighting the Turkish government.

Yaman Akdeniz of Turkey's Freedom of Expression Association fears more fake news videos will appear as election day draws closer.

"We will witness more of these leading into the local elections, which is of course a major concern," warns Akdeniz,

"And there were some examples of that prior to the May 2023 general elections. A photo of the opposition leader came out with PKK leaders. Even the president of Turkey commented , saying that he knows that it is fake, but they still used it."

Turkey's small independent media sector, which is crucial to the exposing of fake news is facing increasing pressure from Turkish authorities. Much of their news is blocked on social media.

"What we've seen is that very, very often material, mainly news on social media, is removed and blocked online," explains Emma Sinclair-Webb senior Turkey researcher of Human Rights Watch. 

Call for action

Human Rights Watch was among 22 international rights groups calling on social media companies to stand up to Turkish authorities' demands for removal of postings.

"It's very concerning to see that authorities are willing to clamp down on free speech, but social media companies themselves are not robust enough to stand up to this pressure," added Sinclair-Webb,

"We want them to be more transparent and to work together in raising concerns about requests by Turkey to block content that is clearly within the boundaries of freedom of expression and also to contest others in court in Turkey. "

• Turkey's presidential challenger faces uphill battle to unite opposition
• Volunteer army of election monitors prepare to protect Turkey's vote

A growing number of prosecutions of independent media under a new disinformation law adds to the pressures they face. Many Turks are now turning to international news platforms.

But Turkish authorities are blocking internet access to foreign news sources which broadcast in Turkish like Deutsche Welle and Voice of America.

These portals are only accessible by a virtual private network, or VPN, which circumvents the ban. But now, some of the most widely used VPNs also face restrictions. 

• Attack on football referee exposes anti-elite resentment in divided Turkey

 "Restricting access to the internet has become a sort of playbook for regimes and authoritarian governments. And so we see across the world an increase in VPN usage, especially in countries like this, like Turkey," said Antonio Cesarano of Proton, a VPN provider.

 "It's a cat-and-mouse game. We will try our best to keep fighting and to keep investing in technology that can bring people back online."

Turkish based independent news providers  warn they are facing a losing battle in verifying fake news.

"As  alternative media, it is not possible for us to fight against this," said Bianet, social media editor Adal.

"Our teams are very limited to 20 people, maybe 15 people, at maximum. But there is an army behind this.

With opinion polls indicating the Istanbul election too close to call, analysts warn the danger of fake news is likely to grow along with pressure on independent news.