International report

Swedish hopes of early Nato membership are fading as Turkey continues to hold up Sweden's bid as part of a standoff with the United States.

In July, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson declared he had secured Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's support for Sweden's membership bid at the Nato summit in Vilnius and that ratification would follow shortly.

But hopes of Sweden joining the military alliance by the end of this year have turned to dust, with ratification still not even on the Turkish parliament's agenda.

Whether Turkey signs off on Sweden's membership depends on Erdogan's relationship with US President Joseph Biden.

"In July, at the Nato summit in Vilnius, President Biden and Erdogan agreed to reset their relations – a sequence of events, a deal and a handshake that would start with Turkey ratifying Sweden's EU accession in the parliament," explains Asli Aydintasbas of the Washington-based Brookings Institution.

For Ankara, the sale of American F-16 fighter jets to Turkey is at the centre of the rapprochement with Washington.

The deal has been held up over ongoing US-Turkish tensions. Washington says it has green-lit the sale, but the purchase also needs to be ratified by Congress. Continuing lack of trust between the Nato allies has led to the ongoing impasse.

"It's become like a chicken-and-egg story about who should act first," suggests Ozgur Unluhisarcikli of the German Marshall Fund.

"Now the United States is concerned that they could actually give the F-16s, and Turkey can still not ratify. And Ankara is concerned that Turkey could drop its only remaining card, and the United States may still not respond," says Unluhisarcikli. "That's the problem."

Sticking points

Erdogan said this month that Turkey will only ratify Sweden's bid if Congress votes to sanction the F-16 sale, calling for the votes to be held simultaneously.

However, there is strong bipartisan opposition to the arms sales in Congress over Erdogan's aggressive stance towards neighbour Greece.

Erdogan has reached out to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, holding a summit this month in Athens at which both leaders pledged to improve relations. Ankara is banking on rapprochement with Greece quelling opposition in Congress.

But as one diplomatic fire was put out, another erupted. Erdogan's backing for Hamas after its attacks on Israel appears to have scuppered any hopes of a breakthrough in Congress.

• Turkey under fire after declaring Hamas a 'liberation' group

Trump card?

But the impasse may suit Erdogan's agenda. Given the importance of securing Sweden's Nato membership to Washington and its European allies, the need for Turkey's green light gives Erdogan powerful leverage.

"I think one of the reasons why that ratification has not happened is because Erdogan and the Turkish government want to maximise the return on that card because this is something that you can only play once," says Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Edam think tank.

"What sort of leverage this card is going to give to Ankara is not a simple question to answer," says Ulgen. "It may be that, for instance, that Ankara believes that the fact that it still holds the card protects it against some of the harsh rhetoric that Turkey's partners in the West may have on Turkey's policy towards Hamas – the pressure that these governments may want to bring on Ankara regarding the current rhetoric on Hamas.

"So indeed, that may be the reason Turkey is holding on to that card."

• Erdogan weighs benefits of friendlier ties with Turkey's Western allies

With Congress yet to schedule a vote on sanctioning the military sale to Turkey and the Turkish parliament yet to put ratification of Sweden's Nato membership on its agenda, there is no end in sight to the impasse.

Analyst Aydintasbas suggests Ankara could be already eyeing American presidential elections next year and looking to the return of Donald Trump, with whom Erdogan had good relations.

"It was Erdogan who started trying to see if he could [drag out Swedish ratification] if he could get more. Maybe on some level, they're also thinking the Trump administration could come to power," she said.

Turkey's decades-long bid to join the European Union will be back on the agenda as EU leaders meet at a summit later this month. They are also expected to focus on Ukrainian membership as part of an eastward drive.

"It's going to be an historic summit in itself for the EU, where decisions on possible openings towards Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia as well are going to be decided," Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Edam think tank told RFI.

But such a significant and expensive eastward drive raises questions over Turkey, whose application to join the European bloc is at a standstill amid concerns over democratic governance and human rights.

"The EU leaders will also need to answer the question about what they are willing to do with Turkey. How willing are they to engage with Turkey when they are making this historic opening towards potential new members in the east?" Ulgen asked.

• Brussels recommends opening EU membership talks with Ukraine

'Democratic backsliding'

Turkey's bid to join the EU has remained in the deep freeze over Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian rule.

Strengthened by a new electoral mandate in May, Erdogan is continuing his crackdown on dissent and tightening his grip on power.

However, the Turkish leader is expected to bring with him a list of demands when he attends the EU summit, including visa liberalisation and calls for a new trade deal.

European leaders may be looking for compromise rather than confrontation, given that Erdogan is set to remain in power for the foreseeable future.

“Especially after the elections in Turkey, the EU is looking for new ways of having a more constructive and less acrimonious relationship with Turkey," predicts Berktay Mandirci, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group.

The modernisation of the customs union, for example is in the interest of both the EU and Turkey, he says.

But Mandirci warns that the realities of Turkey can't be ignored: "The human rights situation in Turkey and the democratic backsliding in Turkey always come up in discussions within the EU."

• Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries up

Strategic location

There are significant obstacles to Erdogan's EU demands – such as the reticence of European far-right parties, most recently in the Netherlands, who are deeply opposed to visa liberalisation with Turkey.

Meanwhile, a new customs trade deal with the EU has a human rights requirement.

But Erdogan retains powerful leverage given Turkey's strategic location, bordering the Middle East and sharing the Black Sea with Ukraine and Russia, which means the EU can ill afford to alienate Ankara.

"The repercussions will be more in terms of the opportunity lost," says Ulgen. 

"It might have turned into a closer diplomatic partnership to address some of the regional crises. It might also mean working together for the construction and reconstruction of Ukraine.

"But all of these opportunities will be lost if this estrangement between Turkey and the EU continues."

• Can Turkey tip the balance of power in the Caucasus conflict?

Difficult discussion

Erdogan is expected to remind EU leaders of Turkey's role as gatekeeper to migrants seeking to enter Europe. At the same time, Ankara has yet to agree to allow Sweden to join Nato.

For the European Union, the seemingly endless conundrum about what to do with Turkey will be the elephant in the room at the Brussels summit.

"There is no realistic perspective for EU membership in light of the democratic backsliding and all the developments that have been taking place in the country in the last few years," says Ioannis Grigoriadis at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy.

Grigoriadis believes that reassessing the future of Ankara's bid is long overdue, especially as the EU considers a new wave of accession, but warns such a conversation is likely to be uncomfortable, if it goes ahead at all.

Like in previous EU summits, the expectation is that contentious issues to do with Turkey will be postponed in the hope that future commitments to Ankara will be enough to avoid a confrontation with Erdogan and keep Turkey on side – or, in other words, the can will be kicked down the road again.

Civil society groups in Turkey say their future hangs in the balance as more and more international donors pull out or cut back their support. Overseas funding is drying up as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan steps up his crackdown against critical voices.

Buoyed by his re-election in May, Erdogan is continuing to make life difficult for elements of Turkey's civil society that he accuses of threatening democracy.

Now organisations like Spod, an LGBTQ+ advocacy group in Istanbul, are also facing a financial battle for survival. Since the elections, fewer of the group's applications for international funding are being accepted, claims Spod's general coordinator Ogulcan Yediveren.

"It is the data, it's not an evaluation," he says. "It is almost impossible to continue do all these activities based on volunteering. So this funding is important for organisations to survive."

Yediveren warns the shortfall in funding will inevitably impact the group's activities, which include providing telephone helplines and legal and psychological support for LGBTQ+ people.  

International funding is Spod's only source of income, he explains. "We don't have any other financial resource. So as long as we receive these international funds, we can continue our activities."

Shifting priorities

The crackdown is adding to international donors' concerns over how effective Turkish civil society organisations really are. 

"I heard and I was told that donors do not see the output, the impact of such things – the outcome, effectively, for the money that they invest in Turkey," says Sinan Gokcen, head of the Turkish branch of the Sweden-based Civil Rights Defenders group.

"They are thinking: 'Well, we've been supporting civil society organisations for several years but we don't see any change.'"

Gokcen believes there has been a decline in international funding as a result.

"This has been intensified, especially after the election period," he says. "And finally, for some big donors, the war in Ukraine took their money – they prioritised supporting civil society organisations within Ukraine."

The earthquakes in southern Turkey in February also saw donors switch support away from civil society organisations and towards humanitarian relief.

• Far from Turkey's earthquake zone, volunteers seek ways to help

Exodus

The list of major donors withdrawing their support continues to grow. 

Open Society Foundations, founded by Hungarian-American philanthropist George Soros, was once a significant supporter of Turkey's civil society – until it pulled out in 2018, blaming government pressure.

"Open Society is no longer funding in Turkey – I think it was around 2 million dollars for civil society and an extra 2 million funding for refugee organisations," says Ekrem Murat Celikkan, co-director of Hafiza Merkezi, an association working to support human rights and justice. 

"The Chrest Foundation from the US also stopped funding because it was targeted by the pro-government press severely," he adds, recounting that both the family that runs the foundation and the groups they supported were subjected to hostile coverage.

The Chrest Foundation confirmed in an email it was ending its financial support of civil society in Turkey, citing unspecified reasons. But the foundation said some groups may be eligible for support in the future. 

Philanthropist jailed

Domestic financial support is also drying up after Turkish philanthropist Osman Kavala was given a life sentence for seeking to overthrow the government.

Kavala was imprisoned for supposedly backing the 2013 Gezi Park protests against Erdogan's rule – a decision condemned by both Washington and the European Court of Human Rights.

But Erdogan robustly defends the verdict.

"There is a person who financed the terrorists in the Gezi events. Now he is behind bars," Erdogan bellowed in a 2018 speech, referring to Kavala without naming him.

"And who is behind him? The famous Hungarian Jew Soros. This person sends people across the world to divide and tear up nations and uses the large amount of money he possesses to this effect."

Soros's Open Society Foundations denied any link to the protests, and pulled out of Turkey days after Erdogan's speech.

No more space to shrink

Erdogan routinely accuses civil society groups of conspiring against him with international donors. 

The president is continuing to introduce new controls, while prominent members of civil society have found themselves arrested and prosecuted.

• Leading Turkish doctor convicted over call for chemical weapons inquiry

“We shrank and shrank and there's no space to shrink anymore. So this is the end of the story," warns Gokcen of Civil Rights Defenders. "We are squeezed in a very narrow field in terms of civil society activism and organisations."

For Yediveren, who continues to send applications for international funding for Spod amid renewed attacks on Turkey's LBGTQ+ communities, the future is bleak. 

"If these civil society organisations collapse, there will be no independent support mechanism to empower ourselves," he warns.

"Probably we will find new ways to come together, and somehow we will create a safe space for ourselves, but probably we will not be as visible as now. And visibility is very important, because this polarisation also feeds homophobia."

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