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Turkey and Italy are finding common ground as they seek to expand their economic and diplomatic influence in Africa. The two nations are eyeing opportunities to cooperate on security, energy and migration as France's traditional influence on the continent wanes.

This month, Somalia's parliament ratified an agreement with Turkey to provide naval protection and assistance in building a Somali navy, another step in Turkey's efforts to expand its African presence.

"With this pact, Turkey will protect the Somali coast from pirates, terrorists – anyone that violates our maritime borders, like Ethiopia," declared Abdifatah Kasim, Somalia's deputy defence minister. 

The defence deal was followed by a bilateral agreement on energy exploration in Somalia.

Ankara's growing influence in the region was underscored by a strong African presence at Turkey's annual Antalya Diplomacy Forum, with seven African heads of state, seven prime ministers and 25 foreign ministers in attendance.

In January, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hosted African leaders at a summit in Rome, where she unveiled plans to expand Italy's influence on the continent.

"Our future inevitably depends on the future of the African continent. We are aware of this, and we want to do our part," Meloni declared.

"That's why we have decided to launch an ambitious programme of interventions that can help the continent grow and prosper, starting from its immense resources."

• Italy targets energy, migration with 'non-predatory' plan for Africa

Common ground in Libya

Analysts say both countries are considering cooperating as a means of achieving their Africa goals.

"Italy is trying to fulfil a position that Western countries in some way left over the last decades, while Turkey has already been in Africa and in sub-Saharan Africa," observes Alessia Chiriatti of the Institute of International Affairs, an Italian think tank.

"The main issues for confrontation or cooperation – we will see – will be migration, energy issues, and, of course, the economic development of these countries," she says.

Also in January, Meloni met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul. The meeting included talks on Africa, with a focus on cooperation in Libya – a country where experts say Ankara has considerable influence, including a military base.

The North African nation is a main transit route for migrants seeking to enter Europe, mainly through Italy.

• Tunisia brush-off augurs badly for EU push for African migration deals

Italy, France and other European countries see that as a "huge threat", according to Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu of the African Studies Department at Ankara's Social Sciences University.

"So there is room to cooperate in this area and to prevent the illegal flow of migrants, and cooperate in the security area as well."

On Tuesday, the Italian and Turkish defence ministers held talks in Ankara. Exploiting Libya's vast energy reserves is also potential common ground.

France on the outs

Meanwhile the recent ousting of regimes sympathetic to France in Niger, Mali and Gabon – and with it, the withdrawal of French forces – has severely weakened France's historical political and economic influence in West Africa.

That offers an opportunity to Italy and Turkey.

"Italy could have an important cooperation with Turkey in order to take advantage of the position left aside by some countries like France, like Germany, like the other Western countries in Africa," says analyst Chiriatti.

"But it will also depend on the bilateral agenda and bilateral interests expressed by Turkey and Italy," she adds. "That's not always the same. So in this sense, we need to see what will happen in the future step by step."

• Newly reconciled, Turkey and Egypt could be a force for stability in Africa

Business opportunities

Chiriatti warns that cooperation can easily turn into rivalry in business. But Africa's vast economic potential is seen as offering plenty of room for partnership.

"There are several areas where Turkey can cooperate with other countries, including European countries, because Turkish companies are trying to increase their investments," says Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu.

"They would like to gain new contracts for large projects, et cetra. Africa is in desperate need of infrastructure. There's a huge energy deficit and infrastructure gap in the whole continent," she notes.

With Italy and Turkey lacking the financial muscle of other influential players on the continent – notably China – both countries have powerful incentives to focus on potential partnership in their bid to expand their influence in Africa.

Heavily armed police are protecting churches across Istanbul day and night after an Islamic State attack on a Catholic church in Istanbul. The terrorist group has warned of further attacks against Christians and Jews.

Turkish security forces have detained hundreds of suspects in the aftermath of January's deadly attack on Santa Maria Catholic Church in the Sariyer district, which killed one person.

The death toll could have been considerably higher if the gunmen's automatic weapons had not jammed.

The Islamic State group claimed responsibility in a statement that warned it was targeting Jews and Christians in Turkey. 

Istanbul's small Christian community, although fearful, remains defiant.

"It's not necessary to be a member of the congregation to be frightened. It's something that would terrify anyone," declared Ilhan Guzelis after attending his local church service.

"We're scared, but believe me, we've never hesitated to come to our church, to worship here, and to pray to God."

Game of cat and mouse

Two men, a Russian and a Tajik national, have been arrested for carrying out the attack, while over a hundred others have been detained across the country.  

Experts say Turkish security forces are now engaged in a deadly cat-and-mouse game with the terror group also known as Isis or Daesh. 

"This is a mutual competition between the security forces and terrorist cells," Murat Aslan of the Ankara-based Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (Seta) told RFI.

"Both sides will try to identify or deceive each other. And in this case, I believe the Daesh terrorists were skilful, at least to bypass the security measures."

Aslan warns the job is becoming harder for Turkey's security forces as the face of Islamic State evolves. He cites changes to assailants' personal appearance, for example: recent attackers have worn regular clothes and shaved their beards, which helps them blend into a crowd.

"They are regular citizens. So it's not that much easier to distinguish exactly who is radical or not, for instance. In the latest incident in the church, the individuals were like regular citizens," he said.

Turkish targets

Adding to security woes is the proximity of Turkey to Syrian territory once held by Islamic State and other radical jihadist groups.

"There are armed groups in Turkey. They still have baggage in Turkey, the remnants of the armed groups inside Turkey, even Isis remnants back from the Syrian war," claims Sezin Oney of the Politikyol news portal.

The last time Islamic State successfully carried out a major attack in Turkey was in 2017, when a gunman went on the rampage during New Year celebrations, killing 39 people at an Istanbul nightclub.

But Aslan warns that Turkey offers numerous targets.

"The church attack was really significant in terms of the potential of Daesh," he says.

"Turkey hosts a lot of churches and Jewish holy sites. Once [terrorists] enjoy a presence here and set up hidden cells, they can easily select a target."

Fears for tourist season

With Turkey's lucrative tourism season only a month or so away, bringing with it further potential targets for Islamic State, the government security crackdown is predicted to intensify.

Christians like Guzelis have mixed feelings over the presence of such patrols around the city's churches.

"After such an incident, it is good for us that [the police] come here to protect us here again, even as a presence; we are grateful for this," he says.

"I wish that there would be no such matters, that everyone would live together here as brothers and sisters. But we are sorry for what happened; it creates a bitterness in us."

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As Turkey's rapprochement with the United States gathers pace, the future of Turkish-purchased Russian S-400 missiles is increasingly in question. The missile deal is a potent symbol of Ankara's close ties with Moscow, but Washington is offering to sell Turkey its advanced F35 military jet for the removal of the Russian weapons.

Ankara was kicked out of the jet program after it purchased Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles, which Washington said compromised the F-35's stealth technology.

Now Turkey's purchase of the advanced F-35 military jet could be back on the agenda.

Acting deputy of Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, during a visit to Istanbul last month, offered to revive the jet sale if the Russian missiles were removed.

Along with the $2.5 billion (€2.3 billion) price tag for the Russian missiles, Ankara paid a heavy price militarily and economically by being expelled from the F-35 program.

Founding partner

Turkey was one of the founding partners of the jet program, with Turkish companies building numerous parts for the plane.

Diplomatically the missile sale created a deep divide between Turkey and its NATO partners, raising questions over its allegiance to the Western military alliance.

"After the purchase of the anti-aircraft missiles, which was unprecedented, some people in [President] Erdogan's cabinet also admitted this was a big mistake," says Onur Isci, a Russian affairs expert at Istanbul's Kadir Has University told RFI.

"Turkey's purchase of the S-400s was a very costly endeavor."

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The S-400 missile sale was a powerful symbol of deepening Russian Turkish ties and deteriorating relations with Washington.

The sale came in the aftermath of Ankara's accusations of Washington's involvement in the 2016 failed coup attempt against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was among the first leaders to offer Erdogan support during the attempted putsch.

Important symbol

While the Russian missiles sit in a warehouse undeployed, they remain an important symbol of Erdogan's close ties to Putin, making their removal difficult for the Turkish president.

"The buying of the S-400 air defence system from Russia was a diplomatic catastrophe of historical magnitude," says former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen, now a regional analyst.

"Unfortunately, it is not possible. I am led to believe that Erdogan will walk back from that mistake ... It was an unforced error. It was an own goal, whichever metaphor you like."

• Turkey's bid to join EU back on the table at upcoming summit

However, US-Turkish ties are improving with Ankara's ratification of Sweden's NATO membership and Washington's reciprocating by allowing the sale of F16 jets to Turkey.

But the F16 is inferior to the F35, which neighbor and rival Greece is set to purchase as part of its military modernisation, causing alarm in Ankara.

"When you read Turkey's hawks, everybody is afraid that the air force balance over the Aegean is not tilting or is going to be tilting in favor of Greece," warns Soli Ozel, who teaches international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University. 

Waiting game

Whether Ankara takes up Washington's offer of F-35 jets in exchange for removing the Russian-made missiles – possibly to a Turkish ally like Azerbaijan, Qatar, or even Libya – depends on the progress of improving relations with the United States.

"It's very important if we see any more moves from Washington," says Yoruk Isik, a geopolitical analyst in Istanbul with the Washington-based Middle East Institute. 

"The F35 was the first signal in years that that was a really positive signal from Washington. Ankara is waiting to hear the continuation of that message."

Erdogan's close ties with Putin have benefited Turkey in deferments on energy payments for Russian energy. The Turkish leader is predicted to be looking to Washington to pay a high price to remove the Russian weapons. 

"Turkey can easily renounce on S-400; it's a political decision, it's not a military necessity," said Huseyin Bagci, head of the Foreign Policy Institute, a research organisation in Ankara.  

"So far, the S-400 has helped Turkey to increase the level of negotiations with NATO and the United States of America."

Ankara's purchase of Russian missiles was widely seen as a diplomatic triumph for Moscow, dividing Turkey from its NATO allies.

Their removal would be a similarly significant victory for Washington.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Cairo this week formally ended more than a decade of animosity with his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, with the two leaders committing their countries to a new era of cooperation.

A military band and gun salute welcomed Erdogan when he arrived in Cairo on Wednesday, as Sisi rolled out the red carpet for his Turkish counterpart.

Not long ago, the two leaders were more used to exchanging angry barbs. But now the talk is about cooperation to prevent Israel's looming military offensive against Hamas in the southern Gaza Strip and the growing humanitarian crisis there.

"We will continue the cooperation and solidarity with our Egyptian brothers for the bloodshed in Gaza to stop," Erdogan declared at a joint press conference with Sisi.

"In the medium term, we are ready to work with Egypt for Gaza to recover and be rebuilt."

Decade-long rift

Bilateral relations plunged into a deep freeze after Sisi ousted Erdogan's close ally, Mohamed Morsi, in a 2013 coup.

Erdogan's visit to Cairo resulted from intense and ultimately successful diplomatic efforts to end years of antagonism between the leaders.

"Reconciliation, an official visit by the Turkish president to Egypt, a meeting there is in and of itself significant," observes international relations expert Soli Ozel, a lecturer at Istanbul's Kadir Has University.

"Given what transpired in the past, obviously, this is a major move on the part of both President Erdogan and President Sisi."

Clampdown on critical media

For years, groups affiliated with Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood and critical of Sisi broadcast from Istanbul – further stoking tensions between Turkey and Egypt.

"These Political Islam-inspired narratives across the whole region are obviously something that is considered corrosive by the Egyptian government," says political scientist Jalel Harchaoui, of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London.

Harchaoui claims moves by Ankara to curtail opposition TV broadcasting in recent years facilitated the rapprochement with Cairo.

"It has always found a home in terms of being able to get broadcast across the region in Istanbul. But Erdogan was able to reduce these freedoms as part of his conversation with Cairo," Harchaoui says.

Regional realignment

Turkey's deployment of troops in the Middle East and North Africa is also a point of tension with Cairo. Turkey and Egypt backed rival sides in the Libyan civil war.

But Erdogan, speaking to the media with Sisi, pledged a new era of cooperation.

"We had the opportunity to evaluate the issues in Libya, Sudan and Somalia," the Turkish president said. "We give full support to the unity, togetherness, territorial integrity and peace of these three brotherly countries."

• What are Turkish troops and Syrian militia fighters doing in Libya?

During his Cairo visit, Erdogan underlined that rapprochement with Sisi was part of a more comprehensive policy of repairing ties across the region.

"We never want to see conflict, tension, or crises in Africa, the Middle East or other places in our geography," Erdogan said.

"With this aim, we are determined to increase our contacts with Egypt at every level for the establishment of peace and stability in our region."

Libya breakthrough?

Turkey and Egypt are two of the region's powerhouses, and rivalry between the countries has only exacerbated conflicts in the region, particularly in Libya, argues Libyan security analyst Aya Burweila.

"In general, I think this is good," she said of their rapprochement. "I think it's helpful for Libya as well because both sides support different factions in Libya. And the stalemate has gone on for such a long time.

"It's about time that the existing powers figure out something that everybody can agree on, and there is a deal to be had."

• Newly reconciled, Turkey and Egypt could be a force for stability in Africa

Burweila believes Erdogan's rapprochement with Sisi and the broader region is also born out of the realisation that cooperation is more productive than rivalry.

"I think both parties realised that the best way forward is to cooperate and discuss, and that Turkey has realised that without economic partners in the Middle East, it cannot move forward," she said.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, on a visit to Libya this month, stressed the importance of Erdogan's meetings in Cairo to secure Libya's long-term future.

Erdogan and Sisi also discussed the development of the region's energy resources.

Such cooperation, observers suggest, could mark a new era in bilateral relations between these two regional heavyweights.

Turkish military forces are carrying out an air assault on US-backed Kurdish forces in Syria, and Ankara has warned that a land operation may follow. The crackdown comes amid reports that Washington may pull its forces out of Syria and Iraq.

Turkey's government accuses Kurdish forces in north-eastern Syria of being linked to attacks on its army. 

Turkish drone strikes are bombarding oil refineries and electricity production in the Syrian border region controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition of ethnic militias and rebel groups.

"The targets are energy infrastructure and that sort of stuff. Obviously, the goal is to make that area not sustainable, as a sustainable haven for the SDF," says Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat and now regional analyst for the Medyascope news portal.

The SDF's ranks include the Kurdish People's Defence Units (YPG) and Women's Protection Units (YPJ), which Ankara accuses of being affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. The armed movement is considered a terrorist organisation by both Ankara and Washington.

"The end game as defined by the Turkish authorities is to prevent a terrorist statelet [being created] beyond Turkish borders," explains Selcen.

"This means allowing the PKK or its Syrian affiliates, the YPG and YPJ, to establish a local administration in that area. War on terror is perhaps the number one priority for this government." 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last month threatened a new land invasion into Syria.

Turkish forces already control a large swathe of Syrian territory from previous operations against Syrian Kurdish forces.

Possible US withdrawal

The SDF is backed by a US military force of around 900 soldiers in the war against the so-called Islamic State group, raising the possibility of a conflict between NATO and its allies.

Ankara's ongoing assault comes amid reports that Washington is considering pulling its forces out of Syria and Iraq.

"Washington may be preparing to hand off SDF as a partner to the Syrian regime and saying: 'you guys sort yourselves out, we are actually going to leave'," said Turkey analyst Sinan Ciddi of the US-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

"The administration is apparently toying with the idea that it's no longer worth keeping US troops there because they are in harm's way," he said.

At least some in the US administration want to explore, if they pulled their troops from northern Syria, "the extent to which Turkey could sort out its problems with the Kurds via engaging with the Syrian regime", Ciddi added.

US-Turkey reset

A US withdrawal from Syria would relieve years of tension between NATO allies Turkey and the United States.

"Unfortunately, this relationship with the United States and YPG creates a barrier between Turkey and the United States," said Bilgehan Alagoz, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Marmara University. 

"A NATO ally should not act against other allies' national concerns," she said. "That's the main reason why Turkey perceives US policy in Syria as a national security concern."

• Sweden deal unlikely to resolve bitter dispute between NATO and Turkey

With Ankara last month lifting its veto on Sweden's NATO membership and the White House reciprocating by green-lighting the sale of military jets to Turkey, the NATO allies appear to be seeking to reset ties. 

Analyst Selcen warns time may be running out for the SDF.

"If the Americans leave, it will be very difficult for the SDF to survive unless they cut a deal with Damascus," Selcen said. "But the timing is of the essence, of course – they cannot get the same terms that they will get once the Americans leave."

Damascus compromise

But Selcen suggests if the SDF moves quickly, it could secure a deal with Damascus that ensures its survival – at least in the short term, given the weakness of the Syrian security forces.

"At the end of the day, they will have to come up with some kind of modus vivendi with [Syrian President Bashar Al] Assad. It does not mean that Assad will come to control this region again as he did. But they will have to come up with some sort of a solution with Damascus."

There could equally be advantages for the Turkish government, he believes.

• Turkey lays the ground for a smoothing of relations with Syria

"It will also be, in the end, a kind of a safe face-saving formula for Ankara, which can now take Damascus as the main interlocutor to deal with this [Kurdish problem]," Selcen said.

"All these sides will be very happy to see the American presence leave the region – with the exception of, of course, the Iraqi Kurds and the Syrian Kurds."

Opposition to the US military presence in Syria is rare common ground between Ankara and Damascus.

If Damascus was to retake control of the predominantly Kurdish region, analysts say, it could be enough for Erdogan to claim victory over the SDF, end Turkey's assault, and remove the main point of tension between Ankara and Washington.

Ankara's ratification of Sweden's NATO membership after a 10-month delay has spurred hopes of a reset in relations between Turkey and the alliance, but tensions still run deep.

French President Emmanuel Macron's recent state visit to Sweden focused heavily on defence amid Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine.

While its NATO membership was seen as critical amid persisting concerns over border security, Turkey refused to ratify Sweden’s entry until a long list of demands from its partners were met.

Sweden's accession saw a lifting of restrictions by NATO countries on military hardware sales to Turkey, says Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who is now a regional analyst for Mediyacope, a Turkish news portal.

"F-16s are being bought [from the US]. This will keep the Turkish air force up in the air for some time... Deals like this one will keep the relationship afloat," he told RFI.

F-16 deal

For years, US President Joe Biden blocked the sale of American F-16 fighter jets amid concerns over rising tensions between Turkey and its neighbours over territorial disputes.

With Ankara ratifying NATO's expansion, the White House has authorised the sale, and Congress is expected to ratify the deal. However it may not be the diplomatic victory Ankara claims.

"The last I heard was the State Department was drawing up a letter demanding the transfer of F-16s as a kind of a certification program," says Turkey specialist Sinan Ciddi, of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

"They could halt transfers if the Turks , for example, continue to antagonise Greek airspace or overflights."

Erdogan's advantage?

Erdogan may retain an advantage, though. Hungary has yet to ratify Sweden's membership and Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Oban is a close ally of the Turkish leader.

Last week, acting US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland held two days of talks in Ankara. The talks were focused on enabling better cooperation between the US and Turkey.

Analyst Selcen says Turkey's is still as strategically important to NATO as it was when it joined in 1952 at the height of the Cold War.

"The same geopolitical reasons to keep Turkey as a strong military ally remain valid," said Selcen. "On the one hand against the north, Russia, and on the other Iran and other terrorist threats."

The war against the Islamic State jihadists remains a point of tension because of Washington's support for Syrian Kurdish fighters.

These include the YPG, which is affiliated with the PKK, and which has been fighting Turkey for decades and is designated by both the European Union and the US as a terrorist group.

"The US relationship with YPG poisons almost all the potential collaborations," political scientist Bilgehan Alagoz of Istanbul's Marmara University says.

So first [the] United States should check its policy towards the YPG, and then Turkey and the United States can start talking about other issues."

Erdogan, Alagoz adds, is holding NATO hostage to extract concessions over Sweden's membership.

Along with his close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his refusal to impose sanctions against Moscow, this is raising questions over Ankara's loyalties.

With the threat posed by Russia expected to grow, and the danger of contagion from the Israel-Hamas conflict, resolving the trust deficit between Turkey and its NATO partners has never been more important.

• French president urges Turkey to support Sweden's bid to join NATO

Sweden's bid to join NATO got a major boost when the Turkish parliament finally ratified its membership application this week. Yet with the Turkish president's signature still needed, Sweden's wait to join the military alliance may not be over.

After ten long months, the Turkish parliament on Tuesday evening overwhelmingly voted to approve Sweden's Nato membership.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been holding up the ratification with a long list of demands from his allies, and the vote came after intensive diplomatic lobbying led by Washington. 

At the heart of the delay was Ankara's demand that the US Congress approve the sale of American F-16 fighter jets to replace Turkey's ageing airforce.

"Neither the United States nor Turkey trust each other on any level," said Asli Aydintasbas, an analyst with Washington-based think tank the Brookings Institution.

"There is also no trust here in Washington vis-a-vis the actions of the Turkish government," she continued. "They don't want to find themselves in a situation where they deliver on their end and the other side doesn't."

Mutual mistrust

That distrust was exacerbated by the apparent lack of personal chemistry between Erdogan and US President Joe Biden, who in the past has described the Turkish leader as a bully.

But the impasse was broken by a rare phone call between the two leaders last month. Biden reportedly convinced Erdogan that he could only persuade Congress to allow the jet sale to Turkey if the Turkish parliament ratified Sweden's NATO membership – a deal that goes back to last year, according to Sinan Ulgen of Edam, an Istanbul-based think tank.

"There is an agreement that was essentially struck during the last NATO summit in Vilnius whereby the US side would essentially start the formal notification of the F-16 package once the Turkish parliament ratifies the accession of Sweden to NATO," Ulgen said.

But behind Turkey's lengthy delay lies scepticism in Ankara whether Biden can deliver Congress.

Lame duck?

Hostility towards Erdogan over his authoritarianism and threats to neighbours, including Greece, is a rare issue that bridges the deep divide between US Democrats and Republicans.

Erdogan's strong backing of Hamas, which he calls a "liberation movement", has only added to that hostility.

Meanwhile, Biden is increasingly seen as a lame-duck president as 2024 elections approach.

"Now [Donald] Trump is marching on the way to triumph once more, maybe, probably. Biden cannot be exerting pressure over the Senate and House of Representatives for the sake of Turkey," predicts Sezin Oney, a commentator with Turkish news portal Duvar.

Oney points out Biden's failure to get Congress to sign off on funding for Ukraine can only add to Ankara's unease.

"I mean, he couldn't do it in the case of Ukraine; he's struggling with that. So how can he do it on behalf of Turkey, which doesn't deliver anything and, on top of it, supports Hamas?" she questioned.

• Turkey under fire after declaring Hamas a 'liberation' group
• Erdogan weighs benefits of friendlier ties with Turkey's Western allies

From Turkey to Hungary

Such concerns could yet further delay Sweden's membership.

While the Turkish parliament ratified NATO's expansion, Erdogan has to sign off on the legislation and send the document to the US State Department as per the military alliance's rules.

But political momentum is behind the deal.

"Congressional approvals really rely on key party spokespeople on the committees," said analyst Aydintasbas. "There is still overwhelming approval for the deal – enough numbers to make it past foreign relations committees in both houses, because it is so important for transatlantic unity, not because the US Congress approves of Turkey's foreign policy direction."

But even if the hurdle of Turkey is finally overcome, Hungary is yet to ratify – and Prime Minister Viktor Orban, after 20 months, is now demanding unspecified concessions from Sweden.

With Erdogan a close ally of Orban, NATO may yet need Turkey's assistance in finally bringing Sweden into the fold.

Turkey is joining forces with Bulgaria and Romania to clear mines from the Black Sea, which have posed a danger to cargo ships since the start of Russia's war in Ukraine. But Ankara, the gatekeeper to the crucial waterway, insists that it won't allow any other Nato countries to send warships to assist.

In a ceremony in Istanbul earlier this month, Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania signed an agreement to clear mines that the war in Ukraine has left in the Black Sea.

"With the start of the war, the threat of floating mines in the Black Sea has arisen," said Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler, announcing that Ankara had formed a mine task force with its Bulgarian and Romanian allies.

Guler said the tripartite agreement was the fruit of months of diplomacy.

With several cargo ships already hit by mines, they are an increasing menace to one of the world's most important waterways for exporting grain and energy.

"These sea mines are floating on the water. They are not stationary, and there is no telling when or where they might strike a vessel," explains Tayfun Ozberk, a former Turkish naval officer and now a defence analyst.

"This is a serious problem in terms of navigational safety, because the merchant ships can't detect these mines as they are semi-submerged in the water," he says.

"And when they do detect them, it might be too late for them to save themselves."

Black Sea grain deal

Analysts say removing the threat of mines will significantly boost Ukraine's efforts to export grain to world markets after the collapse of a deal with Russia brokered by Turkey and the United Nations.

"Mine clearing is very supportive of maritime safety and navigation. I hope it is very beneficial for the Ukraine side in order to export their grain," says Mesut Casin, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Yeditepe University and adviser to the Turkish president.

Moscow is widely seen as threatening Ukrainian exports, saying it can't guarantee the safety of ships carrying them.

But Ankara hopes increasing security for Ukrainian vessels could provide an impetus for Moscow to return to the grain deal with Ukraine.

Casin believes mine clearing could push Moscow to rethink its stance. "Perhaps Russia may come again to the table," he suggests.

• France slams Russia's suspension of Black Sea grain deal as 'blackmail'
• Turkey may be key to salvaging Ukraine's Black Sea grain exports

Turkey as gatekeeper

Three mine-hunting ships from each of the coastal countries and one command ship will be assigned to the new task force, according to the Turkish defence ministry.

While the Turkish navy has modern mine-clearing capabilities, which Romania and Bulgaria will support, experts say the challenge facing the Nato allies is considerable.

"The locations and numbers of the sea mines are unknown, and you have to detect them first; you have to seek and destroy, and this will take time," warns naval analyst Ozberk.

• How one man's ship-spotting hobby is helping thwart Russian sanction-busting

With the Black Sea a key trade route, the United Kingdom also offered Ukraine two mine-clearing ships – but Ankara denied them permission to transit its waters.

"There is some pressure by the Nato allies, such as the UK, to assist Ukraine militarily. But in accordance with the Montreux Convention, Turkey did not give permission," explains presidential adviser Casin.

Turkey has controlled access to the Black Sea since 1936 under the international convention and has been blocking entry to all warships since the start of the war in Ukraine. Casin says that stance won't change, given its importance in containing the conflict.

"If you give this permission to British or American allies, then Russia will compete, saying, 'I am part of the Montreux regime, I will send new battleships'," he argues. "And this is the beginning of warfare in the Black Sea between Nato and Russian ships."

While Turkey is a member of Nato, analysts say it is seeking to perform a balancing act between the two sides in the Ukrainian war in a bid to contain the conflict. Removing the danger of mines is seen as a small step towards that goal, albeit a vital one for world trade.

Turkish security forces this month detained dozens of people across the country accused of spying for Israel. The highly publicised raids are seen as a warning to Israel not to target Palestinians on Turkish soil, after Ankara insisted it would itself reign in anyone suspected of involvement in the 7 October Hamas attacks.
 

At the beginning of January, homes across Turkey were raided in a major operation against alleged spy rings working for Israel's Mossad intelligence service.

A Turkish court formally charged 15 people with espionage offences, while eight others were deported.

In an address to Turkey's MIT intelligence agency, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan boasted: "Our intelligence service, which unearthed the spy network for Israel in our country, has given the best response to those threatening us."

He also warned Israel of more to come.

"This has surprised Israel. But wait ... this is only the first step. You will get to know Turkey. You don't yet, but you will have to," Erdogan said.

The arrests follow the Turkish president's warning of "serious consequences" if Israel sought to hunt down members of Hamas on Turkish territory.

"It's very clear from the threats of Israelis that Turkey [has been] selected as a venue for attacks on Hamas," according to Murat Aslan, a senior security analyst for the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, an Ankara-based think tank.

"In this case, Turkish intelligence at the very first instance – and by the words of the president – warned Israeli intelligence in Ankara that there must be no action," Aslan said.

"But right after this warning – a political warning – [Turkey's] intelligence organisation identified activated cells of Mossad in Turkey."

Israel eyes Turkey as Hamas haven

Israel has not commented on the arrests, but Israeli military leaders and government ministers are vowing to track down those involved in Hamas's 7 October attack on Israel.

"We are inflicting severe damage on Hamas, damaging the leadership of Hamas, targeting the commanders, targeting the terrorists, destroying Hamas' infrastructure in Gaza," claimed Israel's army chief Herzi Halevi.

"We are also constantly ready for other areas. We know how to reach Hamas anywhere in the Middle East," he said.

Erdogan frequently organises rallies in support of Hamas, which he calls a "liberation movement".

According to Gallia Lindenstrauss, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, Turkey is viewed as a likely location for Israel's hunt for those involved in the October attacks.

"When we see the massacres of 7 October, how they occurred and how well they were planned, obviously there was a lot of assistance from the outside ... A lot of things were coming from outside of Gaza into Gaza," Lindenstrauss argued.

"Some of this obviously came through Turkey – not by the Turkish government, but by Turkish security authorities not paying enough attention what was happening.

"Turkey is not happy when foreign countries try to undermine these [militant] activities in ways that might harm its sovereignty. But as long as Turkey allows all this activity on its soil, there are ramifications," she said.

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Turkey determined to avoid spillover

It's not the first time Turkey's MIT intelligence agency has clashed with Israel's Mossad.

But these two formidable intelligence services have also worked together in recent years.

"We definitely did see good cooperation between Mossad and MIT," said Lindenstrauss. "And there was the foiling of a supposedly imminent attack against Israelis on Turkish soil in 2022. So these organisations are also known to cooperate. I think they have great respect for each other."

Last month, Turkish authorities arrested alleged Islamic State members accused of planning attacks on synagogues.

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As the war in Gaza continues, Ankara is determined to prevent the conflict from coming to Turkey.

"Any attack on any other third nationality in Turkey has a bad connotation ... [it] is a negative development for Turkey, because of tourism and business links," explained analyst Aslan.

"Turkey does not want to be a playground for intelligence organisations. So that's why I think Turkish intelligence increased its activity to identify exactly who is involved in what."

Turkey has witnessed terror attacks and assassinations in the past, dealing a heavy blow to tourism and the broader economy.

Ankara's determination not to let the Middle East war spill over onto the streets of Turkey means more crackdowns on foreign intelligence service operations are likely.

The assault of a referee at a Turkish professional football match has drawn international condemnation and the unprecedented suspension of all league games. But it's also brought into focus the wider spectre of violence against public officials in Turkish society, which some blame on the polarising politics of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

After a week-long suspension, Turkish football supporters returned to the stadiums a few days ago.

Play had been suspended for a week after a referee was punched and then kicked on the ground by senior club officials of a major league team.

Halil Umut Meler, who often referees international games, was hospitalised in the incident, which drew worldwide condemnation.

But the assault also brought into focus the growing violence faced by many public professionals in Turkey.

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In a video circulating on social media, doctors ask why they are the target of assaults, a problem medical professionals say is increasingly urgent.

The Turkish Physicians' Association claims there has been a 600 percent rise in violent attacks over the past decade.

Healthcare staff have been protesting for more than a year over rising casualties within their profession and what they claim is government indifference.

"Lots of doctors are dying. Also, lots of nurses are dying in our country," said Berkay Unlu, a doctor at a state hospital in Izmir.

"No one cares about that," he said, exasperated. "It's so important; we are doctors, we are just working for our public."

Political gulf

According to unions, schools are also witnessing a similar surge in violence against staff.

Some analysts say it's symptomatic of a growing gulf in Turkish society, fuelled by years of populist politics driven by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AK Party, whose voting base is poor and religiously conservative.

Erdogan often accuses the elite of undermining his rule – most recently, academics drew his fire.

"What Erdogan and the AK Party are propagating is that they're representing the real people. So they're coming from the grassroots, and they're representing the true native culture of Turkey," explains Sezin Oney , a commentator for the PolitikYol news portal.

"Then you have the opposition, who are the traitors, the elite, the people who are to be castigated – and this polarisation always works because that gives the idea that they are the majority," she says.

"And you have a minority which can be just bashed, stepped upon."

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Scapegoats

Erdogan's government rejects such claims, insisting it has introduced increased legal protection for doctors and other professionals.

But critics say such measures aren't being enforced.

With the country facing growing economic woes that are impacting services, professionals claim they are becoming the scapegoats for growing public anger.

"They don't see the real reasons for their problems and target the health professionals instead of the system, so violence escalated," warns Doctor Sebnem Korur Fincanci, chair of the Turkish Medical Association and a renowned human rights activist, who has herself faced legal woes under Erdogan.

"The frustration, unfortunately, was just reflected towards health professionals instead of the government."

Brain drain

The growing violence is leading to an exodus of professionals from Turkey.

"I think it's a big problem because it's first leading to brain drain – these are highly educated individuals who have a certain expertise and a certain profession that they can practice elsewhere," says analyst Oney.

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"When you have a deficit of health workers, doctors and teachers, there is deterioration in the health system. There is deterioration in the education system," she says, warning that Turkey is facing a vicious circle.

"This is, of course, causing social crisis after social crisis. It's going to be a much unhappier, much more discontented society. And this leads to more violence."

The beating of Meler, one of Turkey's highest-profile referees, has become a symbol of the dangers faced by many professionals who serve the public – and the wider risks of the deepening polarisation in Turkish society.