International report

Turkey is opposing calls for regime change in Iran as security forces carry out a deadly crackdown on nationwide protests. The Turkish government accuses Israel of exploiting the unrest, and is leading efforts to block any military action against Iran – warning that a collapse of the regime could destabilise the region.

Since protests began across Iran almost three weeks ago, Turkey has tried to play down the scale of the unrest. It has distanced itself from Western allies calling for regime change and avoided offering explicit support for those demands.

The protests began on 28 December after a currency collapse triggered demonstrations by merchants and traders in Tehran. The unrest quickly spread nationwide. Activists say more than 2,000 protesters have been killed.

Alongside Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar, Turkey has lobbied Washington against any military response to the killings. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said such a move would worsen the situation.

“We oppose military intervention against Iran; Iran must resolve its own problems,” Fidan said. “We want the issue resolved through dialogue.”

France summons Iran envoy over 'unrestrained' protest crackdown

Fear of regional collapse

According to The Guardian newspaper, US President Donald Trump’s decision to step back from attacking Iran was influenced by Turkey and its Arab allies – who warned of regional chaos if an attack went ahead.

Turkey fears that Iran could descend into civil war similar to Iraq after the collapse of its regime, said Serhan Afacan, head of the Ankara-based Center for Iranian Studies, adding the consequences would be more severe due to Iran’s size and diversity.

“Iran has a population of about 90 million, including many ethnic minorities such as Turks, Kurds, Arabs and Baluchis,” Afacan explained.

“If a conflict erupts among these groups, it could result in a prolonged civil war. Any resulting immigration from Iran to Turkey could reach millions.”

Turkey and Iran unite against Israel as regional power dynamics shift

PKK security fears

Turkey already hosts about three million refugees. Experts say Ankara’s biggest security concern is the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, which has fought Turkey for an independent Kurdish state and has an Iranian affiliate, PJAK.

Although the PKK announced a ceasefire last year and pledged to disband, Ankara fears unrest in Iran could give the group new opportunities, said Iranian expert Bilgehan Alagoz, of Marmara University.

“Day by day, we have started to see the PKK groups in certain cities of Iran demanding some separatist demands, and this is the main concern for Turkey,” he said.

Ankara also accuses Israel of exploiting the situation in Iran.

“Israel has targeted all these PKK groups and tried to motivate the PKK groups inside Iran,” Alagoz said. “Any instability inside Iran can create a space for the PKK.”

Fidan has also accused Israel of manipulating the protests.

Turkey is already confronting another PKK-linked group in Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces, which controls large parts of the country. Ankara accuses Israel of supporting the SDF, adding Iran to a broader Israeli-Turkish regional rivalry.

France's Iranian diaspora divided over deadly protests back home

Energy pressure

Turkey could also clash with Washington over Iran if the protests continue. Trump has warned that countries trading with Tehran could face 25 percent tariffs.

Iran supplies Turkey with about one-fifth of its gas needs, according to Atilla Yesilada, an analyst at the Global Source Partners think tank. “Iran pumps 10 billion cubic metres of gas to Turkey every year, roughly one-fifth of total consumption,” he said.

That supply could theoretically be replaced by liquefied natural gas imports, but Yesilada warned that Turkey is already struggling to cut its dependence on Russia, its main energy supplier.

“Combine this with increasing American and EU pressure to cut gas purchases from Russia, and Turkey is in a very difficult situation,” he said.

Turkey has backed a Syrian army offensive against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, despite a fragile ceasefire backed by the United States.

Aleppo has seen its worst fighting in years, as the Syrian army moved to oust the SDF from two large, mainly Kurdish neighbourhoods in the north of the city. The clashes began in late December and continued into January, forcing many civilians to flee.

The SDF controls a large swathe of northern and eastern Syria. The offensive comes as efforts to integrate the SDF into the Syrian army stalled.

“This is a warning. It is a kind of pressure on the SDF to come to a conclusion quickly, rather than to kick the can down the road with Damascus,” Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region, told RFI.

Turkey’s backing

Ankara, which has recently reopened channels with Damascus after years of strained relations, strongly backs the offensive and has signalled its readiness to provide military support against the SDF.

“Turkey has the military advantage there, and I believe the SDF should take these warnings seriously,” Selcen said. He is now an analyst for the Turkish news portal Medyascope.

Turkey accuses the SDF of links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, the PKK, which has fought an insurgency against the Turkish state for decades.

The PKK is designated a terrorist organisation by the United States and the European Union. Turkey is also pursuing a renewed peace initiative with the PKK and sees the integration of the SDF into the Syrian army as key to stabilising northern Syria.

US pushes Israel to accept Turkish role in Gaza stabilisation force

Stalled integration

In March last year, the SDF signed an agreement in Damascus to integrate with the Syrian army. The deal set out broad principles but left key questions unresolved.

“There was a discrepancy from the beginning in what the parties understood integration to mean,” said Sezin Oney, of the Turkish Politikyol news portal.

“In Turkey’s case, they mean integration in such a way that it melts into the Syrian army. But the SDF understands it as integrating while protecting its inner core and identity. Remaining as the SDF, but operating under the umbrella of the Syrian army.

“Unless one of the parties backs down and makes concessions, we are likely to see a bigger military operation.”

International stakes

On Thursday, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa held telephone talks with his French and Turkish counterparts on the security situation. The discussions focused on containing the fighting and preserving the ceasefire.

Despite its precarious position, the SDF retains influential supporters. Israel, an increasingly vocal critic of Turkey’s regional role, has expressed support for the group. Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar condemned Damascus’s operations in Aleppo.

The SDF remains a key partner of the United States Central Command in operations against the Islamic State group in Syria.

“The SDF lost a lot of troops, at least 10,000 fighters, in the fight against ISIS since 2014,” said Turkish international relations expert Soli Ozel.

“It’s a complicated picture. But from the American side, I do not yet see signs they would allow an attack on the SDF at this moment.”

According to Tom Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkey and Washington’s envoy on Syria, diplomatic efforts are under way to extend the Aleppo ceasefire and allow SDF fighters to withdraw from contested areas.

Turkey fears Ukraine conflict will spill over on its Black Sea shores

Pressure on Washington

The duration of US support for the SDF remains uncertain, especially after last year’s agreement between Washington and Damascus to step up cooperation against the Islamic State group.

The issue has taken on added significance following President Donald Trump’s meeting with Syrian President al-Sharaa in Washington.

Given President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s strong relationship with Trump, time may not be on the SDF’s side, Oney said.

“They want to have the northern part of Syria, at least, but also Syria more broadly, as their backyard,” she added. “Turkey is the most influential country in Damascus. They want the SDF to melt away into the new Syrian state and its army.”

Turkey could face domestic political fallout for targeting the SDF. Protests have erupted in the country’s predominantly Kurdish southeast, which borders Syria, in response to the clashes in Aleppo.

Any further military action against the SDF could jeopardise the fragile peace process with the PKK. 

After years of negotiations, the Turkish military may finally be close to acquiring American F-35 fighter jets. United States President Donald Trump has suggested a deal could be near, despite Israel warning that the sale would threaten its security amidst rising tensions with Turkey.

“We’re thinking about it very seriously,” Trump said when asked by a reporter about the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey during a visit this week by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The sale has been blocked for years due to Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system. A recent Bloomberg report suggested Ankara may be prepared to return the missiles, though Turkish officials have denied this.

Political commentator Asli Aydintasbas, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, says that the strengthening relationship between Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan means both sides are working to resolve the impasse.

“He [Trump] himself is working with Turkey through his very effective ambassador, Tom Barrack, to find a solution,” said Aydintasbas. “There will be stiff opposition from the Greek lobby, Israelis and other regional players. But we've seen Trump skirt such opposition when it came to the Saudi Arabia F-35 sale.”

Military edge

Israeli security experts warn that Turkey’s acquisition of F-35 jets poses a greater security risk to Israel than the Saudi deal due to the Turkish military’s expertise, which threatens to challenge Israel’s technological advantage.

Currently, Israel maintains a significant edge as the Turkish air force operates decade-old jets, a factor that is increasingly important amid rising regional tensions.

“There was definitely a concern in the spring that there might be a confrontation in the skies of Syria between Israel and Turkey,” said Gallia Lindenstrauss of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

Syria in crossfire as Turkish-Israeli rivalry heats up over Assad’s successors

She stresses the risk of confrontation has significantly diminished thanks to “de-confliction talks”, brokered by Azerbaijan. A Syria “hotline” now exists between Israel and Turkey to prevent what Lindenstrauss describes as “accidents between the Israeli Air Force and the Turkish Air Force”.

Yet the need for such measures underscores how strained ties are. “The fact that it exists, of course, does point to the fact that things are not necessarily calm,” Lindenstrauss acknowledged.

Provocative alliances

Israel’s conflict in Gaza has heightened tensions with Turkey. On New Year’s Day, hundreds of thousands protested in Istanbul in support of Palestinians.

Tensions escalated further as Israel increased military cooperation last month with Greece and Cyprus. Both Greece and Cyprus have unresolved territorial disputes with Turkey in the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas.

“Israelis are provoking especially Greeks and Greek Cypriots,” said Murat Aslan of Seta, a Turkish pro-government think tank. “The Israeli pilots are educating and training Greek pilots. They are operating [drones] across the Aegean Sea. And they sold many complex missile systems. So that means Israelis are provoking Greece just to challenge Turkey here in the Aegean Sea.”

In his New Year's address, Erdogan said he was closely monitoring what he describes as threats and provocations against Turkey and Turkish Cypriots. Aslan predicts Ankara will not remain passive. “If there is a pattern in the west of Turkey that Greeks and Israelis are cooperating, for the sake of Turkish security interests, for sure there will be a reaction,” he warned.

Israel talks defence with Greece and Cyprus, as Turkey issues Netanyahu warrant

Greece, which is also acquiring the F-35, has joined Israel in opposing Turkey’s purchase of the jet, warning it would alter the balance of power.

While Trump has expressed support for the Turkish sale, analyst Aydintasbas notes the US president is learning the limitations of his power when it comes to Israel.

“Trump is going through what a lot of US presidents have experienced: frustration, and a question – ‘wait a minute, who's the superpower here?’” she said. “Because of the power dynamic in the US-Israeli relationship, it sometimes does point to a situation in which Israelis, though the weaker side technically, end up having the upper hand because of their enormous influence in the public space.”

Aydintasbas predicts that, despite Trump's friendship with and admiration for Erdogan, the US president will be unwilling to pay the political price of securing the Turkish jet sale. “This is an issue on which Trump is not willing to fight the US Congress... and essentially ignore the US law,” she said.

For the self-described master dealmaker, it may prove a deal too far.

Washington is stepping up diplomatic efforts to address Israeli objections to a possible Turkish role in an International Stabilisation Force in Gaza, a move that could affect plans to disarm Hamas and advance US President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan.

Trump is due to host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 29 December in Florida.

The meeting is the latest attempt to revive the Gaza plan, which aims to move from a ceasefire towards the creation of a new governing arrangement in Gaza, the deployment of an international force and the disarmament of Hamas.

On Friday, Turkish and Egyptian officials met their US counterparts in Miami.

With a ceasefire in place in Gaza, Washington is pushing the next phase of its plan, which would include Turkish troops in an International Stabilisation Force.

From Washington’s perspective, Turkey’s involvement is considered essential to the plan, said Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution.

Turkey and Iran unite against Israel as regional power dynamics shift

Israeli objections

Hamas disarmament depends on the creation of a new Palestinian governing entity and the presence of international peacekeepers, with Turkey acting as a guarantor, Aydintasbas said.

“Without Turkey in this process, decommissioning Hamas weapons would not occur. That is implicit in the agreement.”

Turkey’s close ties with Hamas are well known, with senior Hamas figures reportedly hosted in Turkey. While Turkey’s Western allies label Hamas a terrorist group, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said its members are liberation fighters.

Trump has publicly thanked Ankara for using its influence to encourage Hamas to accept the peace plan.

Israel opposes any Turkish military presence in Gaza, fearing Turkey would support Hamas rather than disarm it.

Israel is also concerned about cyber attacks attributed to Hamas operating from Turkish territory and doubts Turkey would act in Israel’s interests, said Gallia Lindenstrauss, a Turkey analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

“There’s a risk of an accident between Israeli and Turkish forces, given the already high tensions and suspicions. It’s hard to see a positive outcome,” she said.

Israel has struggled to persuade Trump to back its position. “The US has its own priorities, and is receptive to Ankara due to strong Trump-Erdogan relations,” Lindenstrauss added.

Turkey ready to help rebuild Gaza, but tensions with Israel could be a barrier

Turkey’s position

Erdogan, who has cultivated close ties with Trump, has said Turkey is ready to send soldiers to Gaza. Reports have claimed Turkey has a brigade on standby for deployment.

Turkey’s relationship with Hamas is a “double-edged sword”, said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the German Marshall Fund office in Ankara. From Israel’s point of view, Turkey is too close to Hamas, but “if you want to contribute to disarming them, dialogue is needed”.

Any Gaza mission would be risky, but the Turkish army has decades of experience, Unluhisarcikli said. “It has a proven track record in terms of post-conflict stabilisation from the Balkans to Afghanistan. They have proven they can operate in such environments.”

Despite strained diplomatic ties, the Turkish and Israeli militaries still maintain open communication. The two countries operate a hotline to avoid clashes between their air forces over Syria, demonstrating continued military coordination despite political tensions.

Turkey warns Kurdish-led fighters in Syria to join new regime or face attack

Regional doubts

Egypt and Saudi Arabia distrust Turkey’s ties with Hamas and question its intentions in Gaza, Unluhisarcikli said, with concerns that echo memories of Ottoman-era rule.

On Monday, US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack met Netanyahu in an effort to ease Israeli concerns. However, prospects for a breakthrough are likely to depend on this month’s meeting between Netanyahu and Trump.

Incentives may be offered to encourage Israel to accept Turkey’s role, but the issue is unlikely to be resolved that way, said Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution.

“Because this is such a fundamental and existential issue for Israel, I don’t think incentives will work,” she said.

“As to whether or not Trump would go so far as to withhold military or financial aid, it would be very unlikely. Rather, it may just let this situation sort of fester. I don’t think the Americans have a clear plan to push forward if the answer from Netanyahu is to say no.”

For years, regional rivalries have limited cooperation between Turkey and Iran. Now, shared security concerns over Israel are providing common ground. During a recent Tehran visit, the Turkish foreign minister called Israel the region's "biggest threat".

Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, hosted in Tehran by his Iranian counterpart Abbad Aragchi, declared that both countries see "Israel as the biggest threat to stability in the Middle East", because of its "expansionist policies".

Ankara is increasingly angry over Israel's military operations in Syria, which it considers a threat to security. Syria's new regime is a close Turkish ally.

With the Iranian-backed Syrian regime overthrown and Iran's diminishing influence in the Caucasus, another region of competition with Turkey, Tehran is viewed by Ankara as less of a threat

"Ankara sees that Tehran's wings are clipped, and I'm sure that it is also very happy that Tehran's wings are clipped", international relations expert Soli Ozel told RFI.

Ozel predicts that diminished Iranian power is opening the door for more cooperation with Turkey.

Cooperation

"Competition and cooperation really define the relations. Now that Iran is weaker, the relationship is more balanced. But there are limits, driven by America's approach to Iran", said Ozel.

Murat Aslan of SETA, the Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research, a Turkish pro-government think tank, points out that changing dynamics inside Iran also give an impetus to Turkish diplomatic efforts towards Tehran.

Israel talks defence with Greece and Cyprus, as Turkey issues Netanyahu warrant

"Iran is trying to build a new landscape in which they can communicate with the West, but under the conditions they have identified", observes Aslan.

"In this sense, Turkey may contribute. So that's why Turkey is negotiating or communicating with Iran just to find the terms of a probable common consensus."

However, warming relations between Turkey and Iran are not viewed in a favourable light by Israel, whose ministers have in turn accused Turkey of being Israel's biggest threat.

Tensions are rising over Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's strong support of Hamas, which Ankara's Western allies have designated as a terrorist organisation.

"Obviously, Israel does not want to see Iranian and Turkish relations warm as Israel sees Iran as an existential threat and hence anything that helps Iran is problematic from Israel's perspective", warns Turkey analyst Gallia Lindenstrauss at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

Turkey warns Kurdish-led fighters in Syria to join new regime or face attack

This month, Israeli security forces accused Hamas of operating a major financial operation in Turkey under Iranian supervision. Many of Hamas' senior members are believed to reside in Istanbul.

American ally

Israeli concerns over Turkey's improving Iranian ties will likely be exacerbated with Turkish officials confirming that a visit by President Erdogan to Iran has been "agreed in principle".

Ankara also has a delicate balancing act to make sure its Iranian dealings don't risk antagonising its American ally, given ongoing tensions between Tehran and Washington.

Good relations with Washington are vital to Ankara as it looks to US President Donald Trump to help ease tensions with Israel. "For Israel, the United States shapes the environment right now", observes Aslan.

"The Turkish preference is to have an intelligence diplomacy with Israelis, not to have an emerging conflict, but rely on the American mediation and facilitation to calm down the situation", added Aslan.

A new Reporters Without Borders report warns of escalating danger for journalists globally, and highlights that deaths in Gaza at the hands of the Israeli military accounted for nearly half of all reporter deaths this year. The NGO's chief Thibaud Bruttin told RFI that Palestinian journalists were deliberately targeted, and also spoke about the violence spreading across Latin America and how hundreds of reporters remain imprisoned worldwide.

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has warned that journalists are facing increasing dangers worldwide, with Israel emerging as the most lethal country for media workers for the third year running.

In its annual report, the Paris-based watchdog says 67 journalists were killed over the past 12 months – and almost half of them died in Gaza at the hands of Israeli forces.

Twenty-nine Palestinian journalists were killed by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) during the reporting period, alongside what RSF calls "a whole strategy" by Israeli authorities that has severely restricted reporting on the conflict.

The NGO's director Thibaud Bruttin told RFI that the pattern of deaths in Gaza cannot be dismissed as the tragic fallout of war.

"There has been a whole strategy that has been put in place since October 2023," he explained.

"First, there has been the decision to block the entry of Gaza to international journalists. Second, there has been a unit set up within the Israel Defence Forces to smear Palestinian journalists… and then we’ve seen massive strikes against journalists, which have been actually claimed as targeted strikes by the IDF."

RSF says nearly 220 journalists have been killed since the Gaza war began in late 2023. Of those, the organisation believes 56 have been deliberately targeted.

Bruttin stressed that RSF is not including people loosely associated with Hamas in that count, as some Israeli officials have claimed.

“We’re talking about journalists – reporters who have been working, some of them for years, with respected international outlets – and these independent reporters have been deliberately targeted by the IDF."

The report also highlights one of the deadliest attacks on media workers this year – a so-called ‘double-tap’ strike on a hospital in south Gaza on 25 August, which killed five journalists, including contributors to news agencies Reuters and the Associated Press.

French unions take Israel to court for restricting media access to Gaza

Information blackout

A key concern for RSF is the ongoing block on independent media access to Gaza. Foreign reporters can only enter on tightly controlled military tours, despite sustained calls from media groups and press freedom organisations.

The Foreign Press Association in Israel has taken the matter to court, challenging the IDF’s decision to deny access.

Bruttin said the case has reached a critical point. "There has been an intermediary decision by the Supreme Court... and we’re expecting any time in the coming weeks a decision which should, we hope, enable the press to enter."

He added that a combination of the restrictions and IDF smear campaigns has cooled global solidarity with Palestinian journalists.

"The smear campaign … has had an impact on the solidarity among the profession," he said. "It has been very hard to attract the attention of news media globally, and these news media outlets have been very timid in voicing concern over the fate of Palestinian journalists."

But the scale of the recent strikes appears to have shifted sentiment. According to Bruttin, the deadly attacks of 10 and 25 August prompted “an uptick in the interest of media around this”, allowing RSF to launch a major drive on 1 September that “blew away the smear campaign of the IDF”.

With a fragile ceasefire now in place, he hopes momentum will grow around reopening access to Gaza and restoring independent reporting.

'Nowhere in Gaza is safe' says RFI correspondent amid call for global media access

Beyond the Middle East

While Gaza dominates the headlines, RSF’s report shows that the risks for journalists are a global concern.

Mexico remains one of the world’s most perilous environments for reporters, despite government pledges of greater protection. Nine journalists were killed there in 2025 – the deadliest year in at least three years.

Bruttin warns that the danger is spreading across Latin America. “The phenomenon has extended beyond the borders of Mexico,” he said. “We’ve seen journalists killed in Honduras, in Guatemala, in Peru, in Ecuador, in Colombia.”

Around a quarter of all journalists killed this year were in Latin America, with many targeted by cartels, narco-traffickers and armed groups. This trend, he said, is “very concerning” and presents a serious challenge for governments attempting to safeguard reporters.

Sudan and Ukraine also continue to be among the most dangerous places from which to report, with conflict making journalists prime targets on all sides.

Global press freedom at 'tipping point', media watchdog RSF warns

Journalists detained

Alongside killings, RSF’s report documents a surge in the number of journalists imprisoned for their work.

As of early December, 503 journalists were behind bars in 47 countries. China tops the list with 121 detained, followed by Russia with 48 and Myanmar with 47.

Bruttin believes the international community can do far more to secure the release of detained reporters.

“We need to effectively, deliberately campaign for the release of journalists,” he said. He pointed to the case of Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich, who was released as part of a prisoner swap with Russia. “If governments prioritise the release of journalists, they can meet success.”

He expressed particular concern for the 26 Ukrainian journalists detained by Russia, many “outside of any legal framework”.

He told RFI that Ukraine has the ability to prioritise their release through prisoner exchanges, citing a recent precedent in which RSF helped confirm proof of life for a detained Ukrainian reporter, forcing Russia to acknowledge holding him. “He was part of one of the latest prisoner swaps,” Bruttin noted.

Although the overall number of journalist deaths remains below the highs of the early 2010s, RSF says the deliberate targeting of reporters and the erosion of access to information are becoming worryingly entrenched.

Ankara is voicing alarm over a spate of attacks on Russian tankers in the Black Sea, with fears that strikes on ships carrying oil and other key commodities could threaten global trade and pose environmental dangers to Turkey, which has the longest coastline in the strategic sea.

The Turkish government on Thursday summoned both Russian and Ukrainian envoys, warning them to desist from escalating the conflict in the Black Sea.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned the past week's attacks on three Russian tankers as "unjustifiable". Kyiv said its drones targeted two of the vessels, and Moscow has warned it may consider striking the ships of countries supporting Ukraine if such attacks continue.

"This escalation is very dangerous; no one can estimate what will happen," warns international relations expert and former Turkish presidential advisor Mesut Casin.

"Putin says he will use reciprocity rights. This means some of the [Russian] submarines could attack not only Ukraine but also some of the Western NATO allies' tanker ships," he explains, a possibility that raises the threat of "a very big environmental disaster".

Shadow fleet

Kyiv has claimed responsibility for the drone attacks on two empty Russian-flagged tankers but denied involvement in the strike on a ship carrying sunflower oil to Georgia.

The Russian tankers belong to Moscow's so-called "shadow fleet", which is used to circumvent international sanctions by carrying oil and other exports aboard ships not officially registered to the government. 

Given Turkey's long Black Sea coast, fears of an environmental catastrophe are foremost for Ankara.

"These shadow fleet tankers are not modern and are not in good condition," observes former Turkish diplomat Selim Kuneralp.

"The Russians provide their own domestic insurance for these ships," he says. "But how useful and how valid these insurances will be [...] remains a question mark."

How one man's ship-spotting hobby is helping thwart Russian sanction-busting

Trade implications

With Ukrainian forces destroying much of Russia's navy in the Black Sea, Moscow has limited capacities to protect its tankers.

Ukraine has so far targeted only empty Russian tankers, but alarm bells are ringing on the potential implications for global trade.

"Both Ukraine and Russia are leading exporters of basic food and agricultural commodities," notes analyst Atilla Yesilada of GlobalSource Partners.

"Despite massive bombing, Ukraine's grain export capacity is largely intact and is taking the coastal route. So any impairment of that is bad for the world at a time when we are not certain of crop yields because of the ongoing drought elsewhere."

Insurance premiums for cargo ships using the Black Sea have already spiked amidst the escalating conflict.

Ankara wary of escalation

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with his NATO counterparts this week, broaching the topic of ensuring safe navigation of the vital sea trade route.

Turkey is already cooperating with its partners in the alliance that share the Black Sea coast, Romania and Bulgaria, to clear sea mines. Fidan said that cooperation could be expanded to enhance shipping security. 

However, any increased NATO involvement in the Black Sea would be borne mainly by the Turkish navy, given that the Romanian and Bulgarian navies are largely coastal forces.

Ships belonging to navies outside the Black Sea have been shut out by Ankara since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, along with Russian warships. Turkey, under the 1936 Montreux Convention, regulates access to the sea and is only allowing warships to enter to return to their home ports.

Turkey’s mediator role in the Ukraine war faces growing US pressure

Former diplomat Kuneralp claims Ankara will be cautious of getting drawn into any conflict in the Black Sea.

"It would put all the burden on Turkey alone. What would it do? Would it try to intervene in a dispute between Russia and Ukraine? That's unlikely. I would not want that to happen because it would be too risky," he says.

"And that's perhaps why there have not been any concrete actions since the start of the war other than talk."

For now, Turkey – one of the few countries with good relations with both Kyiv and Moscow – is relying on diplomacy, and hoping that Washington's ongoing peace efforts will succeed.

As Paris wrestles with political deadlock, questions are mounting over France’s ability to project strength abroad. RFI spoke to author and political strategist Gerald Olivier about the ongoing political crisis in France and its repercussions abroad.

France is once again mired in political turmoil after the National Assembly last week overwhelmingly rejected the revenue side of the 2026 budget.

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is trying a new method: rather than attempting to push a full budget through a fractured parliament, he aims to break spending into "absolute priorities" – security, energy, agriculture and state reform – and put each item to MPs separately.

The move is intended to avoid another budget showdown, after two years of governmental instability that have steadily chipped away at President Emmanuel Macron’s authority.

Critics, however, argue that the plan is merely a repackaged version of political improvisation – a delay tactic that risks further weakening France’s credibility at home and on the world stage.

Jean-François Husson, the Senate’s general rapporteur for the budget, delivered one of the sharpest criticisms of Lecornu’s move, describing it as a chaotic and ill-timed intervention.

"If you want to give the French a dizzying ride, you could hardly do it better than this," he remarked, arguing that the government’s approach was generating more confusion than clarity.

For author and political strategist Gerald Olivier, there is a deeper problem.

"France is sick, and France has been sick for a while," he says. "We’re basically looking at a country with no government, no parliamentary majority and a total impossibility for any prime minister to put forward a credible programme."

French lawmakers roundly reject income part of budget bill, send it to Senate

France technically needs to pass its budget by 31 December, but Olivier is quick to point out that this deadline has been missed before. "Last year, the budget wasn’t passed until February," he notes.

If the same thing happens this time, the government can fall back on a temporary financial law that keeps spending aligned with the previous year’s budget for up to 70 days. A more drastic option – to rule by decree – exists as a constitutional backstop.

"This crisis exists because there is no majority in parliament," Olivier says. "And it’s also because no party has had the courage to face the kind of medicine that France needs. That’s the larger issue."

International credibility

As a major European power, France’s domestic politics do not stay domestic for long. International investors and European Union partners are watching closely, especially after recent warnings from credit-rating agencies about France’s deficit trajectory.

According to Olivier, the damage is already evident. "France is already in a recession, and there are investments simply passing the country by," he argues. "No one knows what its tax status will be in the coming years."

That uncertainty could have a ripple effect across the continent. France, he warns, risks becoming "economically weak and therefore politically weak within Europe", potentially deepening divisions between EU member states.

France’s economy minister warns latest credit downgrade a 'wake-up call'

"The one reassuring piece of news is that France is not the only one in this situation. Germany is in dire shape, Italy is shaky, Sweden is having problems. It seems today that everyone in Europe is the sick man of Europe," he added.

Periods of political instability often attract external opportunists – whether governments, speculators or hostile influence campaigns. But Olivier remains cautious when asked whether foreign actors are already exploiting France’s woes.

"I don’t necessarily see it," he says, "but if you want to consider fictional scenarios, you could find many."

France’s EU membership, he argues, offers a buffer. "Having the EU behind you is reassuring. The idea of ‘Frexit’ would be disastrous. The euro provides protection."

Still, the consequences of weakened governance can extend beyond the economy. A fragile budget could force France to scale back overseas military deployments – a shift that could alter power dynamics in parts of Africa and the Middle East. "This kind of instability is not healthy for anyone," Olivier says.

A president without momentum

Macron’s political capital has been in decline since the 2022 legislative elections, when he lost his absolute majority. The surprise dissolution of the Assembly after the 2024 European elections only worsened matters, splitting the parliament into three mutually hostile blocs.

"It’s done tremendous damage to Macron," Olivier says. "He was re-elected in 2022 because people didn’t want Marine Le Pen. He didn’t have the support he had in 2017, and disappointment set in."

He argues that Macron himself triggered the crisis. "He dissolved the Assembly for no reason. The European elections had no influence on French politics, but he reacted as if they did – and he made things worse."

Could the president break the deadlock? In theory, yes. "Macron could solve it instantly by resigning," Olivier notes. "That would trigger a new presidential election, followed by fresh parliamentary elections. That’s how institutions are supposed to function." But he sees no sign that Macron intends to take that step.

For now, he predicts "another 18 months of instability" with the possibility of yet another government reshuffle. "We’ve had four governments in 12 months. We could have a fifth one next year. There is no telling."

France's Le Pen asks Bardella to prepare for 2027 presidential bid

Eyes on 2027

With Macron unable to stand again, attention is already turning to the 2027 presidential race.

The National Rally – headed by Marine Le Pen and her rising protégé Jordan Bardella – enters the campaign in a strong position. Republican Bruno Retailleau could emerge from the right, France Unbowed's Jean-Luc Mélenchon or Socialist Olivier Faure from the left. Names from the centre such as MEP Raphaël Glucksmann and the former prime minister from Macron's Renaissance party, Manuel Valls, have been floated too.

Olivier’s concern is not who the candidates are but how honest they will be about the situation.

"No one is willing to say the country needs to make sacrifices," he warns. "France is in debt up to 115 percent of GDP. Public spending is too high. But nobody wants to tell voters that the social state cannot remain as generous as it is."

He singles out one controversial, far-right figure: "The only person honest about the economic reality is Éric Zemmour – and there is zero chance he will be the next president."

Turkey’s role as a mediator in the Ukraine war is coming under strain as Washington advances its own peace efforts and urges Ankara to loosen its ties with Moscow. The pressure comes as Volodymyr Zelensky met Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on Wednesday, where Turkey repeated its offer to restart talks with Russia.

Erdogan told reporters alongside Zelensky that Turkey was ready to resume the “Istanbul Process”, the term Ankara uses for earlier talks between Ukraine and Russia.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Erdogan has strengthened ties with Vladimir Putin and has said those relations help efforts to end the fighting.

But Sinan Ciddi, of the US think tank the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, said Washington’s latest actions suggest Ankara’s influence is fading.

Ankara’s mediation, he said, had not produced results for either the Trump administration or its Western allies and has done little to move the conflict closer to a ceasefire or peace deal. “Washington is going its own way,” said Ciddi.

US special envoy Steve Witkoff, who is leading Washington’s peace efforts, did not attend the meeting in Ankara despite earlier reports he would.

Some analysts say Ankara overplayed its hand by suggesting it could use its ties with Putin to deliver a summit that never happened.

Israel talks defence with Greece and Cyprus, as Turkey issues Netanyahu warrant

Changing diplomatic landscape

Russia-Turkey expert Zaur Gasimov, of the German Academic Exchange Service, said Ankara’s role has been weakened, with other countries such as Hungary now seen as possible venues for talks.

Donald Trump’s decision to deal directly with Moscow, he added, reduces the need for Turkey as a go-between.

“Russia at the moment is not interested in any kind of peace negotiations with Kiev. But Putin and Moscow are interested in direct negotiations with the United States on this issue and possibly other issues,” Gasimov said, adding that Russia still values its ties with Ankara.

“For Russia, contacts with Turkey are of paramount importance, being isolated by anti-Russian sanctions.”

Turkey ready to help rebuild Gaza, but tensions with Israel could be a barrier

Energy pressure on Ankara

Erdogan has refused to enforce most Western sanctions on Russia, saying his relationship with Moscow is needed to build peace.

But during Erdogan’s September visit to Washington, Trump told him to end imports of Russian energy, which make up around half of Turkey’s needs.

Erdogan appears to be responding, as Russian oil imports have fallen in recent weeks.

Ankara is also trying to strengthen its security ties with the European Union. Direct summits between Putin and Erdogan were once common but are now rare, with their meetings limited to the sidelines of international events.

“There is clearly a move, more effort to restore and bolster relationships with the Western world,” former Turkish ambassador Timur Soylemez told RFI.

Trump tests Turkey's energy dependence on Russia with lure of US power

Balancing relations with Russia

Soylemez said Ankara will still try to avoid harming its relations with Moscow.

“The view from Ankara is that it’s never a zero-sum game. Actually, the trick is to prevent it from being a zero-sum game. I think that would be an ongoing effort right now,” Soylemez said.

Turkey’s ability to balance both sides, he added, remains important for a long-term peace.

“Turkish diplomacy and Turkey in general have shown there is a role for us to play,” Soylemez said.

“For example, the Black Sea, when it comes to prison exchange, when it comes to de-escalation on different topics. Basically, because we have a channel to both sides and we’re trusted by both sides.”

Turkey is working with its Black Sea NATO partners on mine clearance. Analysts say this could later help secure safe passage for Ukrainian ships under a peace deal.

But the targeting on Monday of a Turkish-flagged ship carrying a gas cargo at the port of Izmail in Ukraine by suspected Russian drones shows the risks Turkey faces as it tries to strengthen relations with Western allies without provoking Moscow.

Israeli-Turkish relations were dealt another blow when a Turkish court issued an arrest warrant on genocide charges against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior officials, a move strongly condemned by Israel.

As bilateral relations deteriorate, Israel is stepping up defence cooperation with Turkey's rivals, Greece and the Republic of Cyprus. Turkey has ongoing territorial disputes with both – over maritime and airspace rights in the Aegean Sea, and the division of Cyprus following Turkey's 1974 invasion of the island. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the north of the island is recognised only by Turkey.

Israeli Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli claims Israel's deepening partnerships with Athens and Nicosia is aimed at countering the growing threat posed by the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"The doctrine of Erdogan is extremely dangerous. It's extremely dangerous for Israel, and we see Erdogan's Turkey as the new Iran, nothing less. It's very dangerous for Cyprus and it's very dangerous for Greece," said Chikli.

This month, Israeli and Greek warships held joint military exercises in the Eastern Mediterranean. The drill followed similar exercises by the country's air forces.

While Ankara played a key role in bringing about a ceasefire in the Gaza war, tensions have continued.

"We saw Turkey issuing arrest warrants against 37 high-level Israelis, but I think it also relates to the fact that the ceasefire is fragile. We are not entirely sure we are moving in a positive direction," said Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

Turkey ready to help rebuild Gaza, but tensions with Israel could be a barrier

Defence talks

However, Lindenstrauss claims the Gaza ceasefire has opened the door to an acceleration in deepening cooperation with Greece.

"We see the ceasefire is definitely seen as the green light to proceed in cooperation. We see defence deals... serious defence deals are being discussed," she added.

Israeli ministers visited Athens this month for defence talks. Israel has already sold Greece and Cyprus some of its most sophisticated weapons systems, causing alarm in Ankara.

"We see an alignment of the Greek, Greek Cypriot [sic] and Israeli navies. One cannot deny the risk that this will embolden them [Greece and Cyprus]... with Israeli support,” said international relations professor Serhat Guvenc, of Istanbul's Kadir Has University.

Cyprus could become an increasingly focal point for Turkish-Israeli rivalries, given its strategic location. The United Kingdom has two military bases on the island, with the United States having a presence on these. Turkey, meanwhile, has an air base in the soi-disant Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

"The island is like a static aircraft carrier; it can dominate the whole of the Middle East and Turkey as well," warns former Erdogan advisor Ilnur Cevik, who is now a journalist.

"A fighter plane that lifts off from Cyprus can get to Ankara in 15 minutes maximum. Turkey wants the island to be a security zone for itself. Plus, the Turks have even thought about setting up a new naval and airbase."

Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances

Turkey's recent purchases of Eurofighter jets, along with a missile development programme encompassing hypersonic and ballistic capabilities, are also fuelling Israeli concerns.

"It's not clear why a status quo actor should have such a missile programme," said Israeli analyst Lindenstrauss.

"For example, Israel doesn't have a missile programme despite the many threats it faces. I think middle and long-range missiles do suggest this is something more related to offensive intentions... I think all actors that have tense relations with Turkey are watching these developments," she added. 

Turkish Cypriot vote could force shift in Erdogan’s approach to divided island

US influence

US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack sought to downplay tensions, dismissing any threat of conflict between Turkey and Israel.

“Turkey and Israel will not be at war with each other. In my opinion, it’s not going to happen. And you are going to get alignment from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean," he said, speaking at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Manama Dialogue, a Middle East security forum, on 1 November. 

US President Donald Trump, who retains powerful influence over both governments, regional analysts suggest, could play a key role in managing, if not resolving tensions, given his goal of bringing peace and stability to the region.

"[Washington] are very concerned. This is a topic that gets a lot of people's attention. The United States has certainly been trying to mediate and sort of bring tensions down,” said Asli Aydintasbas of the Washington-based Brookings Institution think tank.

Guvenc doesn't rule out a reset in regional relations, but warns that for now the region remains in the grip of an escalating arms race, fuelilng further mistrust and the risky strategy of "my enemy's enemy is my friend".

"We have partnerships – alliances of convenience, pragmatic, tactically motivated alliances – but you never know. I mean, Turkey and Israel may mend fences, and this may create a totally different strategic, regional geopolitics than the one we are talking about today. So everything is in flux, and the balances and the alliances may shift in a very short time."