International report

Europe’s pursuit of “strategic autonomy” has become more urgent than ever. In this edition of The International Report, Jan van der Made examines how the continent’s defence ambitions continue to be both shaped and constrained by reliance on the United States. With insights from experts Bart van den Berg and Guntram Wolff, the programme considers whether Europe can develop the industries and alliances necessary to stand independently in an uncertain world.

Anti-Turk protests in Montenegro have added to rising tensions between Serbia and Turkey. The unrest was set off by anger over Ankara’s sale of weapons to Kosovo, and growing fears of Turkish influence in the Balkans.

“Turks out!” shouted protesters as they marched through Podgorica, the Montenegrin capital. Several Turkish-owned businesses, among the country’s largest investors, were ransacked during last month’s violence.

The clashes were sparked by a knife attack on a Montenegrin citizen by Turkish nationals.

After the unrest, Montenegro imposed visa requirements on Turkish visitors. Some opposition parties accused Serbia of stoking the protests, pointing to rising friction between Belgrade and Ankara over the arms sale to Kosovo.

“There are those accusing the Serbian region of being behind it,” Vuk Vuksanovic, of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, told RFI. “Although I have seen no material evidence.”

While Serbia has not commented on the accusations, it has the capacity to incite such unrest given its strong influence in Montenegro, Vuksanovic said. “The drama involving Montenegro has built up to this difficult atmosphere in Serbian-Turkish relations,” he said.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic last month accused Turkey of trying to resurrect the Ottoman Empire through the sale of sophisticated drones to Kosovo, which broke away from Serbia in 1999.

Analysts say the weapons deal could shift the balance of power in the region.

“There are the kamikaze drones, which are posing a threat, and there are also strategic drones likely to be used to secure the border itself and more as a show of force,” said Zoran Ivanov, a security expert from the Institute of National History in Skopje, North Macedonia.

“So it poses a direct security threat to Serbia and Serbia has to react to this.”

Criminalising identity: Turkey’s LGBTQI+ community under threat

The tension marks a sharp turnaround. In recent years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had built a close relationship with his Serbian counterpart, and Turkish companies became major investors in Serbia.

However the arms sale to Kosovo reveals a shift in Turkey’s relations with Belgrade, explained international relations professor Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University.

“Turkey has more leverage than Serbia,” Bagci said. “The relations between Turkey and Serbia, we understand each other, but it is not as happy as before.”

Analysts say the shift reflects Ankara’s wider ambitions in the Balkans.

“Ankara is trying to increase its influence and will do it,” said Bagci, adding that Turkey’s historical and cultural ties to the region run deep – with millions of families tracing their roots back to the former Ottoman territories.

“The Ottoman Empire was a Balkan empire. The Turkish influence is getting bigger, and of course, they don’t like it. But Turkey is the big brother in the Balkans.”

Turkish Cypriot vote could force shift in Erdogan’s approach to divided island

Last month, Turkish forces took command of NATO’s KFOR peacekeeping mission in Kosovo. At the same time, Turkish businesses continued expanding across the region.

“They’re expanding their markets; they’re expanding their capabilities; they’re expanding their influence,” Ivanov said.

Turkey’s renewed focus on the Balkans was unsurprising given historical ties, he added. “That’s natural for the Turks to come to invest in the region and now looking for their old roots."

However its expanding presence might feel like history repeating itself, Ivanov warned.

As “a man who is coming from the Balkans,” he said, he sees “the Turks coming as they were in history” – a reminder of a past many in the region have not forgotten.

The European Union has praised Ankara for supporting peacekeeping operations and economic aid in Kosovo. But analysts caution that Turkey must avoid alienating its Balkan neighbours.

“Ankara also has to be mindful of its own limitations of its own Balkan ambitions," Vuksanovic. said. "Because otherwise it can push majority Christian Orthodox nations like the Serbs, Greeks and Bulgarians to work against the Turks if the Turks are perceived to be too provocative or aggressive.”

International human rights groups are calling for the withdrawal of proposed legislation against Turkey’s LGBTQI+ community, who warn that the law could effectively criminalise their community, which is already facing a growing legal crackdown.

This week, the New York-based Human Rights Watch called on the Turkish government to drop a proposed law targeting the country’s LGBTQI+ community. Amnesty International has made a similar demand.

Rights groups sound the alarm

The proposed legislation, which was leaked to the media, criminalises attitudes and actions deemed contrary to biological sex, carrying sentences of up to three years in prison.

“It’s really one of the worst reforms, or proposed reforms, we’ve seen in many years,” warns Emma Sinclair-Webb, Turkey director of Human Rights Watch.

“Because it basically says that the government or the authorities can decide that certain behaviour and attitudes are contrary to biological sex and general morality, and are criminal on that basis.”

Turkey's Pride struggling to survive amid LGBTQ+ crackdown

Widespread impact

Sinclair-Webb claims that with the proposed law criminalising the promotion of the LGBTQI+ community, its impact would be far-reaching.

“That could affect journalists reporting on matters connected with gender, sexuality and gender identity. It could mean NGOs working to defend the rights of LGBTQI+ people from stigmatisation and discrimination.”

Since the foundation of the Turkish Republic in 1923, homosexuality has never been criminalised. But LGBTQI+ rights advocates warn that this could change, given the broadly written nature of the proposed law.

“It’s not even same-sex sexual acts that are criminalised. It’s just your appearance. Because the law says anything against biological sex. I mean, it could be very widely interpreted,” explains Öner Ceylan of Lambda a LGBTQI+ rights group in Turkey

“So, this could be a woman with short hair or wearing trousers,” adds Ceylan. “Let’s say I’m on the streets, I’m being myself, and I can go to jail for it for three months. Then I’m released, and what happens next? I can easily go back to jail according to that law. So it can be a perfect excuse to imprison an LGBTQI+ person.”

Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries up

Decade of crackdowns

Under the proposed law, people could face between three months and three years in prison, opening the door to lengthy pre-trial detention and the risk of mass arrests  - a prospect that worries rights groups.

Since the early 2000s, Turkey’s LGBTQI+ community has become increasingly visible and vibrant, particularly in Istanbul, with gay clubs, cafés and bars. The city once hosted large Pride marches, with the 2015 event drawing over one hundred thousand people.

However, for the past decade, Turkey’s religiously conservative government has been cracking down on the community in the name of protecting the family. Pride marches have been banned since 2015.

“Now they’ve banned any kind of LGBTQI+ event in the public sphere,” explains Yıldız Tar of Kaos, an LGBTQI+ group. “We no longer share public venues or their addresses. So we are already living a kind of criminalised life, as if many queer people coming together is a criminal activity, which it is not.”

Tar warns that the proposed law represents the endgame in the government’s campaign. “It’s the result of a decade-long war against LGBTQI+ people, and if this law passes, this is the last step.”

Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries up

Rising rhetoric and rising

In September, the Turkish Interior Ministry filed a criminal complaint against openly gay pop singer Mabel Matiz, alleging that one of his songs violated morals and obscenity laws.

Meanwhile, an all-women pop group, Manifest, was detained under the country’s morality laws for one of their performances, prompting the group to end their sell-out national tour.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been ramping up his rhetoric against the LGBTQI+ community, even equating it with terrorism. The proposed legislation also targets the country’s transgender community, banning gender-affirming healthcare for those under the age of 25.

The LGBTQI+ community has vowed to step up its protests against the law and has secured the support of Turkey’s two main opposition parties in opposing it. But Tar warns that if the law passes, many in the community will likely flee the country -  though he says he and others are ready to resist, whatever the cost.

“We will continue to do our work, to share the very basic knowledge that being LGBTQI+ is not a threat to society. It’s not a threat to the family,” declares Tar. “But it will be harder, and most of us will end up in jail.”

The landslide defeat of Turkey's ally in the Turkish Cypriot elections could now force President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to drop his push for a permanent partition of Cyprus and boost efforts to reset ties with the European Union.

Securing 63 percent of the vote, Tufan Erhurman’s victory in last weekend's election took Erdogan by surprise.

“The defeat was so big, 63 percent was such a landslide, Ankara was really shocked,” said former Erdogan advisor Ilnur Cevik.

Erhurman’s Republican Turkish Party backs a united island. Erdogan supported incumbent Ersin Tatar, whose National Unity Party wants two separate states.

“Ankara had amassed all its political clout on the island," Cevik added. "It had sent its vice president five times to the island; it had sent numerous delegations led by deputies and mayors.”

It failed to win Turkish Cypriots over because “the essence of it was Turkey’s interference, which created huge resentment among the Turkish Cypriots”, Cevik said.

Cyprus has been split since Turkey invaded in 1974. Erdogan had pushed for international recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognised only by Ankara.

Turkey ready to help rebuild Gaza, but tensions with Israel could be a barrier

Analysts say Erhurman’s win has dealt a final blow to Erdogan’s two state strategy for Cyprus.

“The two independent states idea was dead on arrival, and now it's officially dead,” said Soli Ozel, of Kadir Has University’s International Relations Department.

He said Erdogan’s reaction to the election points to a change in approach.

“President Erdogan's message of congratulations to [Erhurman] suggests at least for the moment he's ready to turn the page on that.”

Erdogan’s stance is very different to that of his coalition partner Devlet Bahceli, who called for the result to be overturned and for the north of the island to be integrated with Turkey.

Former Turkish ambassador Selim Kuneralp said the election gives Erdogan a chance to drop a policy that has become a growing obstacle to improving EU defence relations.

Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances

Cyprus has long blocked Turkey’s hopes of deeper EU defence cooperation and access to a 150 billion euro arms programme known as SAFE.

“So far, everything has been blocked by the Cyprus problem,” said Kuneralp, adding that the election result offers a rare opening.

“Now you've got these election results that open a small window. So that's why the present situation might not be so bad for Erdogan.”

European governments see Turkey as an important partner in defending themselves against Russia.

A shift to unification talks could suit both sides, analyst Soli Ozel said.

“Given Russia's proclivities, it makes sense for [Turkey] to be part of SAFE. And it doesn't make sense for the Europeans because of the Greek and Greek Cypriot opposition to leaving Turkey out,” he said.

Erdogan’s Washington visit exposes limits of his rapport with Trump

EU leaders have new priorities that could help clear a path.

“The European Union is no longer the European Union of our grandmothers; the issues of human rights and rule of law no longer count for anything," Ozel said. 

"That's a relation that is cleared of its thorns.”

Turkey’s backsliding on democracy has long held back cooperation with Brussels. Human rights is not expected to feature much during German Chancellor Frederick Mertz’s visit to Ankara later this month.

Deepening defence ties is set to top the agenda, but how far Erdogan supports unification could decide his next steps with the EU.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says Turkey wants to take part in rebuilding Gaza and is ready to join a peacekeeping force once the fighting ends, however analysts warn strained relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv could stand in the way. 

Turkey responded to a call from Hamas for assistance with locating the bodies of Israeli hostages still unaccounted for in the ruins of Gaza, sending specialists to help in the search.

Ankara maintains close ties with Hamas, which some analysts say could make it a useful mediator – although strained relations with Israel could stand in the way of any peacekeeping or reconstruction mission, despite Turkey's experience in these areas.

“Turkey does have expertise for this – it has a doctrine,” said Murat Aslan of the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a pro-government think tank.

“In Afghanistan, Bosnia, some African countries like Somalia or Sudan, and in Kosovo, Turkey contributed either through its Tika aid agency, responsible for reconstruction, or through its armed forces.”

Aslan believes Turkey’s approach would be similar in Gaza. “Turkey will send soldiers for sure, for the protection of the civilian units,” he said.

Hamas says committed to Gaza truce and returning hostage remains

However, others warn the mission would not be easy.

“Turkey can become part of this protection force, but it will not be easy. At the moment it seems more problematic than many people assume,” said Huseyin Bagci, an international relations professor at Ankara’s Middle East Technical University.

Bagci fears Gaza could slide into chaos as rival groups fight for control.

“There are fights between Hamas and the clans,” he said. “It will not be easy because Hamas has to give up its weapons, which is the primary condition. Hamas is not 100 percent trusting Turkey – if not, Israel will probably act.”

Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances

Any Turkish deployment would also require Israel’s consent, which appears unlikely given the collapse in relations between the country's leaders.

Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have regularly traded insults since the start of the current conflict in Gaza, and Ankara’s vocal support for Hamas has further deepened mistrust.

Israeli analysts say the government is hesitant to allow Turkish troops in Gaza, citing deep tensions and mistrust between the two countries.

Gallia Lindenstrauss of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv said there is little enthusiasm for involving a Muslim peacekeeping force, as any casualties could inflame anger across the Muslim world and worsen relations.

“This conflict in Gaza has heightened tensions between Turkey and Israel, particularly between the two leaders,” she added.

Any Turkish role in Gaza would likely need US backing to move forward, given Israel’s resistance, observers warn.

Aslan believes Washington could help bridge the divide. “Erdogan does have a charming power over Hamas,” he said.

“So it’s on Turkey to urge Hamas to accept some things, and it’s on the United States to push Israel to accept the terms of a long-term peace. I believe that Trump is well aware of it, because there is no trust of Israel. That’s a fact, not only for Gazans or Palestinians or Turks, but [across the world] overall.”

Aslan says trust would be essential to persuading Hamas to disarm. “I believe Hamas will lay down their arms when they feel safe, and they have to see friendly faces in Gaza to be persuaded."

Erdogan’s Washington visit exposes limits of his rapport with Trump

Turkish involvement in Gaza could also help pave the way for a reset in relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv.

Bagci believes Erdogan is hoping for political change in Israel to make that possible. “There will be elections,” he said. “Erdogan [is counting on] Netanyahu losing. But if he wins, then he has to deal with him because both sides have to be pragmatic and realistic.”

Bagci said much of the fiery rhetoric from both men is aimed at domestic audiences, with both having reputations as political survivors and pragmatists.

If peace efforts gain ground, observers say cooperation in Gaza could offer a path towards rebuilding trust – and serve both countries as they compete for regional influence.

(with AFP)

In this edition of International Report, RFI talks with David Ondracka, former president of Transparency International Czech Republic, about the country’s recent parliamentary elections.

Populist billionaire Andrej Babiš has swept back into power after voters, frustrated by unfulfilled promises and a stagnant quality of life, turned their backs on the centre-right government.

According to Ondračka, Babiš’s resurgence reflects deep public disillusionment with the political establishment - alongside his skill as a pragmatist who “tells people whatever they want to hear.”

While Brussels voices unease over his return, Ondračka argues that Babiš is neither aligned with Moscow nor guided by ideology.

Instead, he describes him as a tycoon whose loyalties lie squarely “where the money is” - inside the European Union.

Czech populist's comeback a win for politics of pragmatism in shifting Europe

As the Czech Republic enters coalition talks and joins Hungary, Slovakia and Poland in navigating a shifting political landscape, Ondračka warns that Europe’s populist wave is far from receding, continuing to test the strength of the liberal centre.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing growing pressure from Washington to cut Turkey’s heavy dependence on Russian oil and gas – and end his long-standing balancing act between Moscow and the West.

Erdogan said this week that Turkey would work with the United States on civil nuclear energy, in a new signal to Washington that Ankara is looking west for its energy needs.

Turkish companies last month signed a 20-year, multibillion-dollar deal with American firms to buy liquefied natural gas.

The agreement came during Erdogan’s visit to Washington to meet US President Donald Trump in late September. During that meeting, Trump urged Erdogan to reduce ties with Moscow and end Turkey’s reliance on Russian oil and gas.

“In a sense, he [Trump] is offering a grand bargain to Erdogan,” said Asli Aydintasbas of the Washington-based Brookings Institution.

She summed up the deal: “Stop the hedging, stop the stuff with Russia, stop the geopolitical balancing, and then let’s re-establish the partnership, and then we can move along and can really become key partners in the region.”

Turkey walks a tightrope as Trump threatens sanctions over Russian trade

Trump often praises Erdogan as a “friend”, but the US leader has shown he is willing to use economic pressure. During his first term, he triggered a collapse in the Turkish lira over the jailing of an American pastor.

He could again target Ankara with secondary sanctions if Turkey keeps importing Russian energy.

Russian fossil fuels still provide nearly half of Turkey’s total energy. Zaur Gasimov, a Russian-Turkish expert with the German Academic Exchange Service, said Europe’s experience shows how costly a sudden break with Moscow could be.

“It was the case with some Western European countries in 2022 that caused an augmentation of the prices,” said Gasimov. “And the Turkish economy is struggling with inflation that would immediately and heavily affect the life of the average citizen. No party power in Turkey would take such a decision.”

Ankara has ruled out ending its Russian energy contracts, but oil imports from Russia have fallen to their lowest levels in a year.

Some gas deals, signed decades ago, are due for renewal. Analysts say Turkey may use that moment to slowly cut its dependence on Moscow – a move that would deal a serious blow to Russia, which now relies on Turkey as its last major European gas customer.

Druzhba pipeline: dependence, diplomacy and the end of Russian leverage in Europe

Energy trade has long been at the heart of Erdogan’s personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The partnership has survived the war in Ukraine, despite the fact Turkey also supplies arms and support to Kyiv.

Turkey’s balancing act helps keep regional rivalries under control, said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who heads the Marshall Fund office in Ankara.

“Turkey and Russia have been fighting proxy wars in the Caucasus, in North Africa, in the Levant,” he said. “Turkey is getting the upper hand in the end. But Turkey could still manage its relationship with Russia.”

Unluhisarcikli added that Ankara would want guarantees from the West before distancing itself from Moscow, since "it would have security implications on Turkey".

Turkey would have to be "certain" that it would be welcomed back to Europe and have assurances from the United States, he suggested.

Erdogan spoke with Putin by phone this week, though such contacts have reportedly become less frequent as their once-close relationship cools.

Ankara remains aware of the risks: when Turkey accidentally shot down a Russian bomber near the Syrian border in 2015, Putin responded with sanctions that hit Turkish exports and tourism, and several Turkish soldiers in Syria were later killed in what Moscow called an accident.

Turkey eyes Ukraine peacekeeping role but mistrust clouds Western ties

With Russia weakened by sanctions and isolation over its war in Ukraine, analysts say its influence on Turkey is diminishing.

“It is the window to Europe. It is a way to the outside world," Gasimov says. "The number of flights to Turkey is getting bigger and bigger.

“For Russia, Turkey remains a very, very important partnership. So the leverage Moscow once possessed over Ankara is getting less and less.”

As efforts continue to resolve Israel’s war in Gaza, the conflict is threatening to destabilise the wider region. A rare joint naval exercise between once-rivals Turkey and Egypt is being seen as a warning to Israel, as long-standing alliances shift and new rival partnerships take shape across the Eastern Mediterranean.

After a 13-year break, Turkish and Egyptian warships last week carried out a major naval drill in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The exercise is the latest step in repairing ties after years of tension that began when Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi ousted Mohamed Morsi, a close ally of Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

“It marks the consolidation of the improvement in relations,” said Serhat Guvenc, professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul, adding the drill sent “a powerful message to Israel of a new alignment”.

Guvenc said naval drills in the eastern Mediterranean have typically involved Cyprus, Greece and Israel, but this time Egypt broke with those countries, signalling it was no longer part of the anti-Turkey camp in the region.

Erdogan’s Washington visit exposes limits of his rapport with Trump

The Turkish-Egyptian exercise follows years in which Cairo built strong ties with Ankara’s rivals in the region. The shift has not gone unnoticed in Israel.

“Definitely, this is a major event that Turkey and Egypt have conducted a naval exercise after so many years,” said Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

The joint drill comes as Ankara has expanded and modernised its navy in recent years. Lindenstrauss said this has unsettled some of Turkey’s neighbours, giving Israel common ground with Greece and Cyprus.

“Some of them also have quite big disputes with Turkey, such as Cyprus and Greece,” she said. “Greece and Cyprus relations with Israel have been developing since 2010. We’ve seen a lot of military drills together. We saw weapons procurements between the three actors, and this has been going on for some time. So Israel is not alone.”

Turkey has long-standing territorial disputes with Greece and the Greek Cypriot government in the Aegean and the Mediterranean.

Guvenc said Israel has gained the upper hand over Turkey in their rivalry centred on Cyprus.

"The Greek Cypriots acquired a very important air defence system from Israel and activated it. They made life far more difficult for the Turkish military, in particular for the Turkish Air Force," he said.

"This gives you an idea about the shifting balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean as a result of Israel taking sides with Cyprus and Greece."

Macron and Erdogan find fragile common ground amid battle for influence

Despite those rivalries, Turkey and Egypt are finding common ground in their opposition to Israel’s war in Gaza and in wider concerns over Israel’s growing regional power.

In September, Sisi reportedly called Israel an enemy.

“There is competition over who is the most dominant and important actor in the Middle East, in the Muslim world in general,” said Lindenstrauss.

“I really can’t imagine a unified Turkish and Egyptian action against Israel. I can imagine them cooperating to pressure Israel to change its position, which is what is happening now.”

Cairo and Ankara remain at odds over Libya, where they back rival governments. But analysts warn that the fallout from the Gaza conflict is increasingly shaping the region’s power calculations.

Guvenc said the outcome of peace efforts could determine the future balance in the Mediterranean.

“We see an alignment of Greece, Greek Cypriots and Israel. But once the Gaza issue is tackled, from an Israeli perspective, Turkey is strategically more important than these two countries,” he said.

“But if the strategic makeup of the region may not secure a solution, we may see deterioration in the general situation. Then outside actors will be invited by one side or the other, such as Russia, China or even India, to further complicate the issue.”

When Truman Burbank finally realises that his life is a television show – every neighbour an actor, every event scripted – he faces a terrifying choice: walk through the exit door into the unknown, or carry on in a comfortable illusion. Is this is the predicament Europe is facing under Donald Trump’s second term?

In his report for the European Sentiment Compass 2025, Pawel Zerka, of the European Council on Foreign Relations, suggests Europe is living its own “Truman Show moment”.

The United States, he says, is no longer the ally Europeans had been accustomed to having. Instead, under Trump, Washington is not only pulling the strings in trade, defence and digital disputes – it is waging an outright “culture war” on Europe.

The big question is whether the EU has the courage to step off the set, reclaim its autonomy and begin writing its own story.

Europe's uncertainty after Trump's first 100 days

Transatlantic tensions are nothing new. Rows over trade, NATO spending and climate policy have flared under every president from Kennedy to Obama. But Zerka insists that Trump marks a rupture.

“There is a clear difference vis-à-vis previous presidents, and even vis-à-vis Donald Trump 1.0,” he told RFI. “Before, we had never seen a US president targeting Europe so clearly and aggressively.”

This time round, the barbs are sharper, the interventions more deliberate. Trump openly mocks Europe’s migration and climate policies, last week using the world stage of the United Nations to declare that Europeans are “going to hell” with their “crazy” ideas.

Such rhetoric, Zerka argues, is not just bluster. It is part of a deliberate strategy to humiliate Europe, a way of painting the European Union as weak, dependent and incapable of agency.

And this culture war is not confined to speeches, Zerka says – the Trump administration has moved from commentary to active interference.

In Germany, US Vice President JD Vance and former Trump advisor Elon Musk openly backed the far-right AfD party during the country's legislative elections in February.

Similar interference was seen in Poland, Romania and Ireland, where Washington lent support to Conor McGregor, a former mixed martial arts champion who had thrown his "Make Ireland Great Again" hat in the ring for the country's upcoming presidential election on 24 October, but withdrew from the race in September. 

McGregor's political ambitions had been boosted by an invitation to the White House on St Patrick's Day, with Trump calling him his "favourite" Irish person.

“We haven’t seen anything like this before,” Zerka stresses. “There’s such active involvement in domestic politics of European countries, supporting rivals of the governments in place – and very often those rivals are problematic political players.”

“There is a lot of appetite among the European public for an assertive Europe, but leaders keep finding themselves in situations where they look ridiculous and Europe gets humiliated” – Pawel Zerka

Europe’s new right: how the MAGA agenda crossed the Atlantic

So what does it mean for Europe to “walk off the set”? In Truman Burbank’s case, it was about courage – daring to leave behind the artificial comfort of a staged life. For the EU, Zerka says, it is about dignity and identity.

“European leaders must be ready,” he argues. “Currently they are buying time with Trump, because they depend so much on America for security, especially with Russia’s war in Ukraine. But the danger is that by playing along, they risk repeated humiliation – whether at NATO summits or in trade negotiations – where Europe ends up looking ridiculous to its own public and to the wider world.”

The challenge, Zerka believes, is that many EU leaders still don’t grasp the true nature of the confrontation.

They treat disputes over tariffs or defence spending as technical haggles, missing the larger picture – that they are part of a cultural battle over values, sovereignty and the very meaning of the West.

Without that recognition, Europe risks stumbling from one Trump-scripted crisis to another, always reacting, never setting the agenda.

In The Truman Show, it was a character named Sylvia who first whispered the truth to Truman, that his life was staged. In today’s Europe, Zerka sees Denmark as playing that role.

Trump’s suggestion that the US might buy Greenland directly questioned Danish sovereignty, giving Copenhagen a unique impetus for defending European autonomy.

“Denmark is the one country really trying to show Europe the difference between reality and illusion,” Zerka says, adding though that Sweden and Finland, both scarred by the Russian threat and largely resistant to Trump’s personal appeal, could also be well placed to push for European autonomy.

Then there are what he calls the “door holders”, the heavyweight countries whose choices could swing the EU’s future one way or another: France, Germany and Poland.

Each stands at a crossroads. Elections in the coming years could see them drift towards the pro-Trump “director’s crew” – Hungary, Italy, Slovakia – or rally behind the prophets calling for strategic autonomy.

The outcome, Zerka warns, will determine whether Europe claims its agency or sinks deeper into dependency.

Can Europe withstand the ripple effect of the MAGA political wave?

However, with Russian aggression on its doorstep, Europe cannot simply sever ties with Washington. Yet, Zerka argues, the notion that Europeans must appease Trump to preserve the transatlantic bond is a fallacy.

“It’s completely the other way around,” he says. “Only if Europe steps up in building its own capacities, and shows assertiveness, can it become a real partner rather than a subordinate.”

That means investment in defence, technology and energy resilience. It also means recognising the culture war for what it is, and refusing to be defined by Trump’s caricatures.

Trust in the EU is its strongest since 2007, with polls showing that citizens increasingly view the bloc not just as an economic club but as a community of shared values, and destiny.

Zerka believes European leaders must harness the public appetite for a more assertive Europe. The risk of inaction, he warns, is cultural subordination.

The reward of courage, by contrast, is the chance for Europe to write its own story, and participate in the transatlantic partnership as an equal.

Turkey has hailed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s first White House visit in six years as a diplomatic win, though tensions over Donald Trump’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza still cast a shadow.

Ankara is celebrating a diplomatic win after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was hosted by US President Donald Trump in Washington on Thursday.

In the Oval Office, Trump praised his guest in front of the world’s media.

“He’s a highly respected man,” Trump said. “He’s respected very much in his country and throughout Europe and throughout the world, where they know him.”

Erdogan smiled as he listened. The Turkish leader had been frozen out by President Joe Biden, who made clear his dislike for the Turkish leader.

Trump, by contrast, has long cultivated a friendship with him. But even that relationship has limits, with Israel’s war on Gaza still a source of strain.

Turkey walks a tightrope as Trump threatens sanctions over Russian trade

Erdogan is a strong supporter of Hamas, which he refuses to label a terrorist group, calling it instead a resistance movement. Yet he chose not to let the issue overshadow his visit.

Analysts say this restraint was deliberate.

“There’s been a concerted effort not to get into a spat about Gaza,” Asli Aydintasbas, of the Washington-based Brookings Institution, told RFI. “Uncharacteristically, he remains silent on the Gaza issue and that is by design.”

During his trip, Erdogan kept his criticism of Israel’s offensive in Gaza to remarks at the UN General Assembly, echoing broader international condemnation.

He also met French President Emmanuel Macron in New York and welcomed France’s recognition of a Palestinian state.

Erdogan is also seeking wider backing as concerns over Israel’s actions grow, an issue that also came up in his talks with Trump.

“Turkey’s concerns with Israel are not actually limited to Gaza,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara.

He said Ankara is also uneasy about Israel’s actions in neighbouring states, adding that the two countries’ policies towards Syria clash sharply.

“Turkey wants a stable Syria and one that’s centralised,” he said. “Whereas Israel wants a decentralised and less stable Syria.”

Turkey warns Kurdish-led fighters in Syria to join new regime or face attack

Turkey’s close ties with Russia risk becoming another flashpoint.

Sitting beside Erdogan at the Oval Office, Trump called for an end to Turkish purchases of Russian energy. He also criticised Erdogan’s long-standing policy of balancing relations between Washington and Moscow.

“Trump does not want a balancing Turkey, at least today,” said Aydintasbas. “That was more obvious than ever in his rhetoric and his dealings with Erdogan.”

She said Erdogan had assumed for the past decade that his balancing act between the West and Russia was acceptable. “It must come as a surprise,” she added.

Turkey is the third-largest importer of Russian oil and gas. But in a move seen as an attempt to placate Trump, Ankara this week signed a multibillion-dollar deal to buy US liquefied natural gas over 20 years.

The two leaders also signed a strategic agreement on civil nuclear cooperation, which could pave the way for Turkey to buy US-made nuclear reactors.

As Trump rails at UN and shifts Ukraine stance, Macron urges US to end Gaza war

Despite these gestures, analysts said Erdogan achieved little in return. He had hoped Trump would lift a US embargo on the sale of F-35 stealth fighter jets. Instead, Trump only gave a vague promise to address the issue.

For Erdogan, however, the White House meeting itself may have been the main prize.

US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said before the meeting that Trump wanted to give Erdogan “legitimacy”.

“For Erdogan, this is a big win,” said Sinan Ciddi, of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies. The Turkish leader, he said, has long sought a White House photo-op to showcase at home.

“He gets to show that he has met the US president, has gravitas on the world stage and is signing deals with Washington,” Ciddi added.

“At a time when he is jailing leaders and dismantling democratic governance inside Turkey, he is being legitimised by the leader of the so-called free world.”