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Episode overview
In this episode of Investments Unplugged, host Kevin Headland is joined by U.S.-based Co–Chief Investment Strategists Emily Roland, CIMA, and Matt Miskin, CFA, for a “back-to-school” themed market outlook, along with their views on portfolio positioning, for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.
Using a “report-card” framing, they assess:
· The overall economic backdrop, with a focus on labor market signals and “Goldilocks-like” conditions
· The role of AI-led capex and its effects on manufacturing activity and market leadership
· The state of corporate earnings, equity market valuations, and market breadth
· Why fixed income may be re-emerging as a more compelling portfolio building block
Key topics & insights
1. Economics 101: a “Goldilocks-ish” U.S. economy, but with softer edges
Ø The U.S. economy is given a report-card grade of roughly a “B / B+”; it’s not overheating, nor is it on the verge of collapsing.
Ø The labor market is characterized as “no-hire, no-fire,” with limited layoffs and low jobless claims but some signs of cooling.
Ø There has been some softening in consumption and sentiment (e.g., weaker retail sales, worth monitoring closely.
2. AI as a new cycle driver: capex, computing power, manufacturing renaissance
Ø AI is described as a powerful economic engine in today’s environment, driving a surge in business investment and data-center buildouts.
Ø AI demand is a catalyst for manufacturing and industrial activity, with knock-on effects beyond just mega-cap technology space.
Ø However, what consumers/businesses say they’re going to do might differ from what they actually do, so tracking hard activity data will be key.
3. Earnings power and market breadth: Stocks have tended to follow profits over time
Ø A broad-based boom in corporate profits has been supporting the equity market in recent quarters, extending beyond just the big mega-cap tech stocks,
Ø For example, “old economy” segments of the market (notably, the energy and financials sectors) have been delivering strong earnings growth as well.
Ø Similarly, recent equity market performance has also broadened, with several areas outside the U.S. large-cap growth space doing comparatively better.
4. Market valuations and the risk of “great expectations” on the part of investors
Ø While equity valuations had been stretched earlier this year, price/earnings (P/E) multiple expansion has been moderated by stronger corporate earnings.
Ø The key risk: If earnings growth and AI-related capex were to slow, areas of the market currently priced for favorable outcomes could respond negatively.
Ø The portfolio implication for investors: Stay diversified across and within asset classes, try to avoid “overconcentration” in a single market sector or theme.
5. The direction of interest rates and the monetary policy “wildcard”
Ø There’s tension between AI hyperscalers’ large funding needs (debt/equity issuance) and the risk that central banks could drain market liquidity if inflation reignites.
Ø The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy backdrop is uncertain, with bond markets potentially pricing in rate outcomes that may not match incoming economic data.
Ø Rising long-end yields are important in the context of bond market supply/demand dynamics, with investor attention shifting toward private/AI-linked issues.
6. Fixed income: Yields are more attractive, but patience and positioning matter
Ø Many bond yields have drifted higher amid inflationary concerns, but investors often wait too long to rebuild their fixed-income portfolio exposures.
Ø In credit markets, even with spreads tight, the absolute yield levels have become more attractive, but there could be bouts of rate-driven volatility.
Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors
· Be alert to potential investment opportunities. Even if economic growth is choppy, corporate earnings and market leadership can still support risk assets.
· Diversify by business exposure, not just geography. In today’s markets, global diversification can still leave your portfolio overconcentrated in the AI supply chain.
· Participate in the AI theme, but manage concentration risk. Maintain AI exposure while being realistic about equity valuations, capex sensitivity, and other factors.
· With yields having risen, revisit the portfolio role of bonds. In particular, using high-quality fixed-income assets more intentionally may be beneficial.
· Use credit selectively for income. Even with spreads tight, consider allocations to higher-yielding credit market sectors, but stay mindful of the risks.
·
Links & Resources
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In this episode of Investments Unplugged, with the halfway point of the year fast
approaching, host Kevin Headland is joined by two guests—Global Chief Economist Alex
Grassino and Senior Macro Strategist Dominique Lapointe—who share their midyear 2026
global macroeconomic outlook.
Alex and Dominique recap the action-packed first half of the year, highlighted by the
unforeseen Middle East conflict that erupted in late February, and then lay out a “macro-to-
markets” roadmap of sorts for the rest of 2026 and into 2027. Among the timely, top-of-
mind topics they address are:
• Global growth resilience, despite Middle East conflict-driven energy shocks;
• Evolving global inflation risks, including mounting AI-related demand pressures;
• Policy implications for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and other major central banks;
• Portfolio positioning considerations across global equity and fixed-income markets.
Key topics & insights
1. First-half surprises: geopolitical turmoil, corporate earnings, and AI leadership
• The Middle East conflict has lasted longer than most observers expected, creating a
sliding scale of potential outcomes that investors have had to price in.
• Corporate earnings expectations and results rebounded quickly after some softness
seen in late 2025, helping to support U.S. and global markets.
• U.S. equities linked to AI have continued to outperform, with market leadership
reconcentrating around AI-/hardware-related themes.
2. Macro backdrop: resilient U.S. and global economies, uneven regional impacts
• Despite the Middle East conflict and resulting oil-price shock, the U.S. economy
appeared to navigate the first half with “relative ease” and notable resilience.
• Other regions’ economies are being impacted in different ways by the conflict,
depending on such factors as whether they are energy exporters or importers.
3. Canada: a low-growth environment, “recession-like” conditions open to debate
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• The guests argue that an economic recession tends to be broad-based with
widespread corporate layoffs—conditions they’re not seeing in Canada right now.
• However, the economy is indeed weak, characterized by slow growth, amid
structural issues (e.g., productivity), tariff after-effects, and cautious consumers.
• But a fragile economy doesn’t necessarily mean a lack of investable opportunities,
since the Canadian stock market isn’t perfectly linked to domestic growth.
4. Inflation: “rolling shocks” and new AI-driven inflation concerns
• Inflation can manifest as a series of rolling transitory shocks, potentially driven by
several forces (e.g., higher energy prices, trade tariffs, AI demand pressures).
• AI’s inflationary channel can take the form of various equipment-driven supply
shortages that can push the prices of goods up over multiple quarters.
• A specific risk scenario discussed: If the Strait of Hormuz remained closed until the
end of July, could the price of oil breach $110/barrel in the third quarter?
5. Central banks: a higher degree of uncertainty and narrower policy paths
• Fed policy in the coming months may face symmetric risks from either rate hikes or
cuts, with market expectations already having been whipsawed in recent years.
• The Bank of Canada has a different dilemma on its hands: balancing rising inflation
concerns against a softening domestic economy and labor market.
6. Equity positioning: try to stay invested while avoiding headline-driven reactions
7. Fixed-income positioning: keep it in the portfolio toolkit, manage duration carefully
Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors
• Don’t let macro and geopolitical headlines drive portfolio strategy decisions.
• Remain well diversified across asset classes, investment styles, and global markets.
• In the equity space, aim to distinguish between potential AI “winners” and “losers.”
• Use fixed-income allocations intentionally for portfolio ballast and diversification.
• Be cautious with long-duration bonds, consider favoring shorter durations.
• Canadian investors: Be alert to possible opportunities, even in a sluggish economy.
Links & Resources
• Listen to the episode: Investments Unplugged Podcast
• Learn more about Manulife Investments: Manulife IM Canada
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insights on markets, investing, and portfolio strategy.
For informational purposes only. This episode does not constitute investment advice.
Please consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions
In this episode of Investments Unplugged, host Kevin Headland is joined by Alex Richard, Senior Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset Solutions, to discuss Manulife’s newly launched “all-in-one” ETF strategies—against a backdrop where portfolio diversification has reclaimed attention, following a period in which many investors were tempted to chase equity returns.
Kevin and Alex describe what makes these portfolios different from traditional “set-it-and-forget-it” asset-allocation ETFs, including:
They also share their views on portfolio positioning across equities and fixed income in today’s market environment, as well as what role diversifying exposures (like global infrastructure and global credit) can play in a long-term investment strategy.
Key topics & insights
1. Why defense and diversification are back in focus
2. What are Manulife’s new “all-in-one” ETF portfolios?
3. Active at the core, built to adapt, TCR-ready
4. Broader, deeper portfolio diversification
5. Implementation: Manulife ETFs + third-party ETFs + futures
6. Market views and portfolio positioning themes
·
Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors
Links & Resources
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Episode overview
In this episode of Investments Unplugged, hosts Kevin Headland and Macan Nia continue their timely dialogue around the geopolitical turmoil impacting today’s markets. Now entering its 40th day (at the time of this recording), the ongoing conflict in the Middle East still commands center stage, so Kevin and Macan discuss how it’s feeding through to energy prices, market volatility, and investor behavior.
They examine why markets opened 2026 “priced for perfection” (leaving little margin for error), how the current oil price shock compares with 2022’s macro environment (with important differences in inflation and interest-rate starting points), and why recent equity valuation compression—particularly in the technology sector—may be creating select opportunities for investors.
Key topics & insights
1. Oil: the conflict’s key transmission channel
2. Market volatility regime shift (not capitulation)
3. 2022 comparisons: what’s similar vs. what’s different
4. Valuations: technology reset, select opportunities
Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors
Links & Resources
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If you enjoyed this episode, please share it with your network and subscribe for future insights on markets, investing, and portfolio strategy.
For informational purposes only. This episode does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions
Episode overview
In this episode of Investments Unplugged, hosts Macan Nia and Kevin Headland discuss the investment implications of the Middle East conflict that began in the first quarter of 2026. Rather than forecasting geopolitical outcomes, Macan and Kevin focus on how shocks in energy-producing regions can transmit quickly into oil and natural gas prices, consumer costs, inflation expectations, and market volatility.
The discussion is framed around:
o
Key topics & insights
1. Why energy is the fast transmission mechanism
2. The conflict’s nuance: scale of regional supply + chokepoint risk
3. Disruptive vs. destructive: what history suggests
4. Inflation, central banks, and why bonds may not hedge the usual way
5) Portfolio discipline in fast-moving headline markets
6. Second-order impacts beyond oil and gas (food inputs)
·
Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors
Links & Resources
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If you enjoyed this episode, please share it with your network and subscribe for future insights on markets, investing, and portfolio strategy.
For informational purposes only. This episode does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.
Episode overview
In this episode of Investments Unplugged, hosts Kevin Headland and Macan Nia mark International Women’s Day by exploring longevity through the lens of women and financial preparedness. They’re joined by Director, Multi-Asset Solutions Erica Camilleri, who shares thoughts and research on why longevity risk is higher for women, how today’s macroeconomic backdrop (including higher cross-asset correlations and persistent inflation) can amplify retirement risks, and what investors can do—through better planning, appropriate risk-taking, and sound advice—to reduce the odds of outliving their savings.
Key topics & insights
1. Longevity risk and why it’s higher for women
2. Health, wealth, and “longevity preparedness”
3. The role of incentives and behaviour change (and why it matters for outcomes)
4. Structural inflation is still a long-term retirement risk
5. Portfolio construction challenges: higher correlations and concentration risk
6. Mitigating longevity risk: saving earlier, compounding, and appropriate risk
7. Advice, planning, and using the right tools (including RRSPs)
·
Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors
Links & Resources
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If you enjoyed this episode, please share it with your network and subscribe for future insights on markets, investing, and portfolio strategy.
For informational purposes only. This episode does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.
Episode 113: 2025 in the rearview—are markets in for another strong year?
Hosts:
Kevin Headland (Co-chief Investment Strategist)
Macan Nia (Co-Chief Investment Strategist)
Special guests:
Emily Roland (Co-Chief Investment Strategist)
Matt Miskin (Co-Chief Investment Strategist)
Episode highlights
• 2025 in review:
• The team discusses the strong performance of markets in 2025, including the
TSX’s impressive 24% return despite a challenging economic backdrop in Canada.
• Key market drivers:
• The role of momentum trading, trend-following strategies, and AI exuberance.
• The ongoing influence of the crypto trade.
• Discrepancies between Canada’s economic data and TSX performance.
• Looking ahead to 2026:
• Will the trends of 2025 continue, or is a shift on the horizon?
• The importance of sentiment as we enter the new year—are markets priced for
perfection?
• Why investing in companies is not the same as investing in the broader economy.
• Risks and opportunities:
• Potential risks for the Canadian economy, especially regarding banks and
financials.
• The importance of being prudent and keeping an eye on domestic economic
indicators.
• The impact of investor confidence and employment on market flows.
• Actionable insight:
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• The team provides practical considerations for investors as they position
portfolios for 2026.
• Encouragement to review the team’s full 2026 outlook, available on the Manulife
Investments website.
Additional information
• Subscribe on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or your favorite platform to stay up to date.
• Listeners are encouraged to rate, share, and reach out with questions or feedback.
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