Art of Boring

In this episode, Mawer portfolio managers and analysts discuss what they fundamentally look for in a bank as an investment. Specifically, how they view banks and the industry trends, as well as local dynamics, and ultimately what makes each of these businesses both unique and attractive. David Ragan discusses Scandinavian banks, highlighting Handelsbanken's smart lending and DNB's stability. Josh Samuel analyzes DBS in Singapore, emphasizing its low cost of funds and high ROE. Grayson Witcher focuses on J.P. Morgan in the U.S., noting its strong management and unique financial assets, while Alex Romaines examines First Citizens Bank in the U.S., which capitalized on market turmoil. Mark Rutherford covers Canadian banks, noting their conservative strategies and high ROE. Siying Li discusses HDFC Bank in India, and Asim Hussain explores Mitsubishi UFJ in Japan, emphasizing their unique upward-sloping yield curve.

Key Takeaways:

• The ideal bank investment is stable, lends to reliable clients, and operates in a rational, well-regulated market. Diversification in lending, funding, and economic exposure helps prevent insolvency and builds resilience, crucial in a highly leveraged industry.
• The Scandinavian banking environment is stable and well-regulated, with rational competition and prudent lending. Banks like Sweden's Handelsbanken and Norway's DNB provide consistent returns, low loan losses, and steady growth, supported by smaller, consolidated markets and strong economic stability.
• DBS in Singapore sustains strong net interest margins and 15–16% ROE. Strong management boosts investor returns through higher payouts, reducing risks from limited growth in foreign markets.
• U.S. banks face intense competition with little brand differentiation, often competing on interest rates alone. While experienced in managing risk, they are vulnerable in recessions. Banks trade at lower valuations than other sectors due to weaker competitive advantage.
• J.P. Morgan stands out in the U.S. market due to its strong management, high returns, low leverage, and strategic acquisitions during downturns. It diversifies through unique assets, investment banking, and asset management, enhancing resilience.
• The U.S. banking industry is fragmented and competitive, with a history of crises. Fragility creates opportunities for well-managed banks trading below intrinsic value.
• Canadian banks are highly consolidated and operate with a leveraged model, lending and raising equity. They now generate significant revenue from wealth management and insurance, reducing dependence on loan spreads. Strong regulatory relationships foster stability, with banks earning attractive returns while supporting economic growth.
• HDFC Bank, India’s largest private bank, has strong management and benefits from a growing economy. With low non-performing loans and high ROE, it continues gaining market share from public sector banks, despite short-term challenges from its recent acquisition.
• Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan's largest bank, has a rich history and significant market share. With an upward-sloping yield curve and a focus on digitalization, it stands to benefit from rising interest rates, driving potential profit growth despite past challenges in the Japanese banking sector.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guests: David Ragan, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager, Joshua Samuel, CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst, Grayson Witcher, CFA, AB Mawer Portfolio Manager, Alex Romaines, CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst, Mark Rutherford, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager, Siying, CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst, Asim Hussain, CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst

For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn -   / mawer-investment-management

Instagram - / https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, Peter Lampert, lead portfolio manager of the International Equity Strategy, discusses the recent Chinese stimulus and its effects on emerging markets. He highlights key long-term risks in China, including weak sentiment, regulatory challenges, and geopolitical tensions, while emphasizing the potential of companies like Tencent and Tencent Music. The conversation also covers Turkey's Bim, a discount retailer thriving amid economic uncertainty. Peter explains how the portfolio's success stems from stock selection, especially with stealth performers like Vietnam’s FPT and Taiwan’s IGS, and the importance of balancing macro risks with company-specific growth potential.

Key Takeaways:

•China's recent stimulus signals a shift from restrictive policies to boosting economic growth, leveraging the U.S. Fed's easing cycle to inject liquidity and stabilize the economy.

•The stimulus could mitigate three key challenges: weak consumer sentiment, regulatory uncertainty, and geopolitical risks. While long-term issues persist, the focus on growth reduces the likelihood of worst-case scenarios in the near term.

•Macro factors and bottom-up analysis are deeply intertwined in portfolio decisions. As risks shift, so do portfolio positions.

•Higher macro risks in China lead to applying higher discount rates and requiring better ROI. Growth projections for economically sensitive companies are adjusted lower due to structural challenges, leading to exits when valuations no longer meet the stricter risk criteria.

•Companies with independent growth drivers can perform well despite China's economic challenges, as they are less reliant on the broader economy and can thrive even in a weaker market environment.

•One example is Tencent, whose strong management, dominant WeChat position, and conservative monetization approach offer growth opportunities. Despite China's economic challenges, Tencent can pull monetization levers, making its valuation attractive amid broader pessimism.

•This year’s strong performance of the emerging markets portfolio has been driven by careful stock selection, focusing on lesser-known "stealth performers" like FPT, IGS, and Aegis Logistics, which consistently generate shareholder value.

•Peter highlighted one such performer: Bim, a Turkish discount retailer. Bim has thrived despite economic challenges. With Turkey's economic outlook improving, Bim is positioned for long-term success as it continues to offer value to consumers.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Peter Lampert, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. 

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com 

Follow us on social: 

LinkedIn -

https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ 

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, Steven Visscher, lead manager of the balanced strategies, discusses the impact of rising interest rates and inflation on the balanced portfolio in recent years, Mawer’s disciplined and collaborative approach to portfolio construction, and the importance of having a long-term perspective. He spoke about recent changes and additions to the balanced portfolio and provided an update on the performance of the balanced portfolio thus far in 2024. Key Takeaways:

• Over the last four years, interest rates and inflation have had the most significant impact on the capital markets and the performance of the balanced strategies.
• Following a surge of inflation in 2022, central banks aggressively hiked rates, which led to the first meaningful loss in a balanced strategy since 2008.
• After being called into question in 2022, 60/40 portfolios bounced back in 2023 and 2024 following positive fixed income returns, helping support the overall balanced strategy.
• So far, the market recovery has been led by a narrow subset of businesses, most notably technology companies that are part of the euphoria around artificial intelligence (AI). These companies have experienced extraordinary returns and lifted benchmarks to new heights.
• However, some of the Mawer balanced strategies weren't heavily exposed to those industries and have continued to trail their benchmarks on a relative basis.
• Steven and his team think in a probabilistic way meaning that they are intellectually open to the fact that there are many scenarios that could unfold, and they want to have a certain amount of resilience regardless of the scenario.
• The neutral stance of the balanced portfolio reflects the uncertainty of the current environment. The team’s base case scenario is that a recession may unfold over the next six to 12 months.
• A small portion of capital from the U.S. equity strategy, which is more heavily biased toward larger U.S. businesses, has been shifted to a fairly new asset class, the U.S. mid-cap segment due to a valuation gap.
• From a balanced perspective, the goal isn't to eliminate risk; it's to manage it.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Steven Visscher, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: 

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/ 

Portfolio Manager Crista Caughlin discusses the economy and factors that drove markets in the third quarter of 2024.

Key points from this episode:

• In the third quarter, most central banks either continued cutting rates – like the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada – or started cutting rates – like the U.S. Federal Reserve. 
• Inflation risks have diminished and downside risks to growth and employment have increased, so central banks are responding with easier policy.
• Crista believes the Bank of Canada will continue to make 25 basis point cuts at future meetings, but a 50-basis point cut is potentially on the table thanks to the Fed’s more aggressive cut.
• Because central banks are easing policy and the market expects them to continue to do so, the yield curve has started to normalize.
• All else equal, a faster, more aggressive central bank reduces the probability of a recession.
• The third quarter was a Goldilocks scenario. Growth was weak enough to allow central banks to ease policy, which is really good for bonds and interest-rate-sensitive equity sectors, but it was not so weak that there were obvious signs of a recession.
• Regardless of whether central bank easing corresponded to a recession or a soft landing, equities have historically gone higher and spreads tighter after the first central bank cut.
• One of the main questions on Crista’s mind going into the fourth quarter: How long will growth and policy be tailwinds driving the markets?

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Crista Caughlin, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager

For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/  Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, Peter Lampert, lead portfolio manager of the International Equity Strategy, provides insights on the team’s investment process, the state of the portfolio, and the main drivers that are currently having an outsized impact on performance, namely, semiconductors, obesity medicines, and defense companies. He details his team’s rigorous approach to evaluating management teams from both a quantitative and qualitative standpoint, providing an in-depth example of Hitachi. The conversation concludes with a brief discussion of the current macro environment.

Key Takeaways:

• As enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence continues to grow, semiconductor companies have strong competitive advantages and dominant market share in their niche industries.
• According to the team’s DCF model, the long-term growth rates of companies like TSCM have increased, so they have trimmed back some positions to manage risks.
• With Novo Nordisk leading the way, the growing market for obesity drugs is expected to become the largest therapeutic drug class as more and more companies look to enter the space.
• Amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts, there is a strong long-term investment case for select European defense companies, as European governments increase defense spending to protect Western values.
• Regarding areas of opportunity, Peter highlighted the theme of improved corporate governance in Japan as companies in the country aim to meet global standards.
• When evaluating a company’s management team from a qualitative perspective, there are four defining elements: Strategy, operational excellence, capital allocation, and trustworthiness.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Peter Lampert, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. 

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social: 

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, Grayson Witcher, the lead manager of the U.S. Equity Strategy, discusses the key drivers currently impacting the U.S. economy, including inflation, interest rates, artificial intelligence, and the upcoming presidential election. He emphasizes the importance of diversification and avoiding sharp edges—particularly during an election year. Grayson outlines the importance of and reasoning for his team’s practice of monitoring company management changes in real-time and the value of investing in companies with strong leadership. Key Takeaways:

• The three big themes driving the U.S. market over the past six months are interest rates and inflation, artificial intelligence, and the election.
• While food, energy, and goods inflation has fallen, service inflation is proving to be a bit stickier, as it entails things like car insurance, rent, and medical services. Wage inflation has also remained relatively strong.
• With artificial intelligence, there is no denying the initial hype and surrounding success of the excitement for companies like NVIDIA. However, the question remains as to whether the trend will continue or start to fizzle out, similar to other technology trends from the 90s and 2000s.
• Regarding the upcoming U.S. election, both candidates’ agendas could impact the economy in inflationary ways, though the impacts would differ depending on the prevailing candidate.
• For Grayson, his election strategy for the portfolio is to prepare, not predict. He avoids sharp edges, which are the industries and companies that are highly dependent on one outcome, and leans into diversification.
• Within the U.S. portfolio, there are two main ways the team diversifies the single-country portfolio: diversification by geography and by industry or sub-industry.
• For long-term investors, management and culture drive a significant amount of value because they reinvest the cash flows generated by these businesses, and they are responsible for managing risk.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Grayson Witcher, CFA, AB, Mawer Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/the-u-s-equity-landscape-inflation-artificial-intelligence-and-elections-ep166

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. -- Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at www.mawer.com.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com 

Follow us on social: 

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-

management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

Twitter - https://www.twitter.com/Mawer_Invest 

In this episode of the podcast, credit analyst Curtis Elkington provides a comprehensive overview of the $50 trillion global commercial real estate market. He covers the current headwinds facing various property sectors, such as pandemic-induced challenges in the office sector and touches on the surprising resilience of the retail segment. Elkington sheds light on the complexities of the commercial mortgage-backed securities market and details the credit analysis process his team uses to evaluate potential investments with examples.

Key points from this episode:

• Over the past four years, commercial real estate as an asset class has faced potentially the most significant of headwinds, most notably the pandemic and the rise in interest rates.  • While the pandemic had a different impact on each property sector within commercial real estate, higher rates had a much more uniform impact across the various industries. • The overall size of the commercial real estate market, which includes multifamily, office, retail, and industrial properties, is massive. In 2023, Savills estimated the total global property value was $50 trillion, of which the U.S. is the largest component. • Vacancy and capitalization rates are the two primary metrics used to assess the health of the commercial real estate sectors. In office, both vacancy and capitalization rates have increased significantly since 2019. • According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, the 25 largest commercial banks have ~$860 billion in commercial real estate loans, which is only 6% of their collective assets. All the other banks outside of the top 25 have $2 trillion in commercial real estate loans, but that accounts for 30% of their total assets. • Over the past six months, the risk-reward on the credit side for several real estate companies was unattractive in all scenarios. • Some market participants believe that upwards of $100 billion, or 15%, of U.S. CMBS is currently mis-rated. • The credit team does two main things in its intensive analysis credit review. They assign a Mawer credit rating that's tied to valuation, and they establish a margin of safety that's tied to downside production. • With commercial real estate, just like any potential investment, the team reviews each issue and issuer on a case-by-case basis following a thorough and rigorous process before committing investor capital.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guests: Curtis Elkington, CFA, Mawer Credit Analyst

For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/skyscrapers-and-storefronts-insights-on-the-commercial-real-estate-market-in-2024-ep165

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram  - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, Crista Caughlin, lead Portfolio Manager of the Canadian Bond Strategy, and Brian Carney, lead Portfolio Manager of the Global Credit Opportunities Strategy, provide their thoughts on recent economic data releases, a shift in central bank language, and recent market volatility. They delve into new issuance activity in the U.S. and Canada, widening spreads in the investment-grade and high-yield markets, and current portfolio positioning. The conversation concludes with an update on the growth and expansion of Mawer’s fixed income team.

Key points from this episode:

• Central banks have shifted their focus from solely targeting inflation to balancing inflation and growth risks, leading to the start of a global easing cycle. 
• Recession fears have increased due to weakening economic data, such as falling PMIs, rising unemployment, and weak growth, causing volatility in markets.
• It remains to be seen if recent volatility is just a pocket or something more material. If growth remains robust, it's likely just a pocket that will right-size itself. If growth continues to weaken and signs of a U.S. recession continue to pick up, it could be a larger downturn.
• The first half of the year has been smooth sailing for credit investors, but recent dislocations and changes resulted in significant widening in credit spreads.
• New issuance activity has been robust in the U.S. and Canada, with the levels of investment grade and high-yield issuance year-to-date already exceeding last year’s volumes.
• Commercial real estate has been a topical sector, but neither the Canadian bond strategy nor the global credit strategy have any direct exposure to real estate.
• In terms of where yield curves are today, parts of the curves are still inverted, particularly recession indicators.
• Both strategies hold Verizon Communications and Ford Credit Canada due to their favorable financial and operating metrics.

Host: Kevin Minas, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guests: Brian Carney, Mawer Portfolio Manager, Crista Caughlin, Mawer Portfolio Manager

For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/navigating-the-canadian-equity-landscape-dispersion-energy-transition-and-opportunities-ep163 This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. -- Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode of the podcast, Mark Rutherford, Co-Manager of the Canadian large-cap equity strategy, discusses the current investment landscape in Canada, highlighting the wide dispersion in sector performance and the impact of central bank policies. He delves into the long-term theme of the global energy transition and its far-reaching effects on various market sectors in Canada. Insights into insurance and banking sector performance are provided, as well as examples of specific portfolio holdings within the Canadian equity strategy. Key points from this episode:

• On the surface, healthy and attractive returns can be found across equity markets in Canada. However, there is quite a bit of dispersion under the surface.
• Year to date, top-performing sectors include energy and materials – which have been the top performers for a few years now – while telecoms, real estate, and some utility stocks are lagging the market.
• One longer-term theme that is top of mind, both for Canada and numerous countries around the world, is the ongoing energy transition.
• Long-term opportunities that Canada is well positioned for include energy production, natural resources and renewables, critical minerals, and utilities.
• AI has been a big driver of incremental change within the utilities sector. Companies like Fortis, Hydro One, and AltaGas are investing more every year and building up the rate base, which ultimately will grow their earnings over time.
• One simple heuristic Mark’s team uses when evaluating portfolio construction and portfolio holdings is to ask where they see headwinds and where they see tailwinds.
• Life insurance companies have benefited from higher interest rates and improved earnings mix, while banks are facing challenges due to slowing loan demand and higher provisions for loan losses.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Mark Rutherford, CFA, Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/navigating-the-canadian-equity-landscape-dispersion-energy-transition-and-opportunities-ep163 This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. -- Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

Twitter - https://www.twitter.com/Mawer_Invest 

In this episode, Portfolio Manager Manar Hassan-Agha discusses how the Global Equity Team navigates an exuberant market environment while staying true to Mawer’s disciplined investment approach. He delves into the potential impacts of emerging trends, namely artificial intelligence (AI), and provides examples of the team’s measured approach to evaluating the hype and sustainability of these trends. He emphasizes the value of temperament, alignment, and identifying mispriced high-quality companies. Key points from this episode:

• When considering potential errors of omission, it's a delicate balance between learning and improving while also ensuring you're not learning the wrong things. It's a matrix of good-bad decisions and good-bad outcomes.
• A deep dive on XP
• A deep dive on Robert Half
• We tend to overestimate the effects of new technology in the short term but underestimate them in the long run [Roy Amara], which could potentially apply to the current AI hype.
• The asymmetry today, in our mind, around AI hype is that there's a lot of uncertainty around this, particularly with respect to what's embedded in the prices of stocks. The difficulty continues to be identifying losers versus winners in a longer-term perspective.
• Chasing a theme is very difficult. You must be right on the theme and right on the securities in that theme while also not overpaying relative to the expectations already priced into the theme.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Manar Hassan-Agha, CFA, Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/marbles-and-billiards-navigating-the-highs-and-lows-in-global-equity-ep162 This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

Twitter - https://www.twitter.com/mawer_Invest