Art of Boring

Art of Boring

By Mawer Investment Management Ltd.BusinessInvestingManagement
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Art of Boring episodes

  • Quarterly Update | Q2 2026 | EP 221

    Canadian equities gained in the second quarter of 2026 even as the economy tripped the technical definition of a recession and an oil shock sent crude toward $120 before it fell back. Institutional portfolio manager Kevin Minas and investment counsellor Stu Morrow review the quarter, from the gap between the Canadian market and the Canadian economy to the case for holding commodity exposure as geopolitical risk becomes a recurring feature rather than a one-off. They also discuss what a narrow, AI-led rally means for a diversified portfolio, record hyperscaler bond issuance in Canada, and how the Bank of Canada and the Fed held rates through a volatile stretch. The conversation closes on the quarter's asset allocation: trimming equities back toward a neutral mix. Key Takeaways

    • Canada met the technical definition of a recession, but the picture underneath was nuanced. GDP rebounded about 0.5% in April with most industries expanding, and per-capita output grew, closer to a stall-speed economy than a true contraction.
    • The market and the economy can tell different stories. Financials and energy dominate the TSX while real estate and healthcare drive more of the real economy, which helps explain a roughly 7% TSX return alongside soft growth.
    • Geopolitical risk increasingly looks like a recurring condition rather than a rare tail event. With oil spiking near $120 before falling back toward $70, the episode makes the case that commodity exposure can play a portfolio-construction role, chosen selectively where valuation and business quality support it, rather than serving as a call on prices.
    • The Fed stood pat under new chair Kevin Warsh, and the Bank of Canada held across its April and June meetings after cutting substantially. In Canadian bonds, the team added duration as yields rose on inflation fears and removed it as they fell.
    • On AI, the aim is not to guess whether the buildout keeps running, but to choose which risk to live with: too much concentration in the theme on one side, or falling behind by stepping away from it on the other. The team keeps the portfolio from leaning too far in either direction by weighing the companies spending on the buildout against the hyperscalers earning from it, since one company's capital spending is another's revenue. With memory stocks, the risk lies less in the multiple paid than in the cyclicality of the earnings.
    • Credit was constructive, with record hyperscaler issuance in Canada including a $14 billion Amazon deal that Mawer participated in. With spreads tight, positioning stayed higher-quality and shorter-dated, and the balanced strategy trimmed equities back toward a neutral asset mix.

    Companies Mentioned: Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Meta, Microsoft, Oracle Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, CAIA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Stu Morrow, CFA, Mawer Investment Counsellor

    This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

    Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

    Visit us at:

    https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

    #ArtOfBoring #MawerInvestmentManagement #MawerInvestment #Podcasts

    24 min
  • Emerging Markets: Different Hats, Better Decisions, and Learning Faster | EP 220

    Investment teams increasingly build and rely on their own AI tools, but the payoff depends on how deliberately a team reinvests the time that AI frees up. Emerging markets portfolio manager Wen Quan Cheong walks through how his team puts believability-weighted decision making into daily practice, and where AI has genuinely enhanced the process. He closes with a tour of the emerging-market themes he is watching most closely, from reshoring and clean-room capacity to physical AI, low-earth-orbit satellites, and businesses winning simply by putting the customer first. Above all, he returns to the idea that AI's real value lies in what a team chooses to do with the time it saves.

    Key Takeaways

    • The team practices believability-weighted decision making: deferring more to teammates with deeper expertise on a given name, while still doing enough independent work to spot blind spots.
    • One of AI's biggest productivity gain so far for the team has been in forensic analysis, running deeper, more consistent checks across longer time periods than a human could alone, freeing up time for higher-value work like idea generation and company research.
    • That saved time is meant to be reinvested, not banked: attending more conferences, joining more management calls, and turning insight generation itself into a discipline, described as "learning compression."
    • On reshoring, the team sees opportunity less in the household names and more in the infrastructure behind the shift: industrial park developers, port operators, and specialized clean-room engineering firms like Acter Group and CTP.
    • Beyond AI and reshoring, the team explores other areas such as physical AI and low-earth-orbit satellites, as well as EM businesses, such as NU Holdings, Bajaj Finance, and HDFC Bank, that win by being more customer-obsessed than entrenched incumbents.

    Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Wen Quan Cheong, CFA Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager

    This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

    Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

    Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

    34 min
  • Global Equity: The Odyssey, the AI Trade, and Concentration Risk | EP 219

    AI portfolio construction in global equity markets (memory semiconductors, mega IPOs, and how to manage concentration risk) is the focus of this conversation with Mawer's global equity portfolio manager Paul Moroz. Drawing on Homer's Odyssey, he explains the discipline the team applies when navigating themes that are moving quickly: from trimming SK Hynix systematically as the position grew, to sizing up what a wave of large IPOs means for cost of capital, to the central trade-off between underexposure and overconcentration in the AI complex. He also puts numbers around the portfolio's AI positioning and explains how hyperscaler holdings act as a natural offset. The episode closes on humility as a process requirement, reflected in the portfolio's expansion to nearly 90 names with smaller, more incremental position sizing. Key Takeaways

    • Memory semiconductors, including SK Hynix, illustrate the discipline required around fast-moving themes. The team has sold back nearly as much as it invested in SK Hynix while the position has grown to over 5% of the portfolio — a deliberate trimming driven by ongoing valuation modeling, not a change in the thesis. The risk is not the price-to-earnings multiple; it is the cyclicality of earnings, and the question of how long the current upcycle runs.
    • Odysseus' response to the Sirens when he ties himself to the mast and has his crew row with beeswax in their ears is a useful analogy for process. Decisions made in advance of the moment of seduction, grounded in a systematic valuation framework, are more reliable than decisions made in the heat of a rapid move.
    • Large IPOs entering markets signal a more capital-intensive economic period and raise real questions about where the capital comes from. Companies already in the S&P 500 benefit from a structural cost-of-capital advantage over those outside it, and the team watches for what needs to be sold as large new issuers absorb liquidity. A period of multiple compression, while uncomfortable for near-term statements, improves long-term reinvestment returns.
    • The Scylla-versus-Charybdis choice (the monster on one side, the whirlpool on the other) maps directly onto the AI portfolio construction problem. The team's AI hardware exposure sits at approximately 22.7% of the portfolio; a 50% drawdown in that sleeve would represent roughly an 11-12% hit to the overall portfolio. An offsetting 15.5% is held in hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon) whose capital expenditure is the revenue of the hardware side, producing a natural hedge that brings net directional AI exposure to around 7-8%.
    • The team's response to the Cyclops story (Odysseus boasting after his victory, which brought years of suffering from Poseidon) is portfolio humility expressed through construction. The global equity portfolio now holds just under 90 names, with positions sized smaller and traded in smaller increments to reduce the cost of being wrong and to manage in a high-volatility environment.
    • Some holdings that look nothing like AI businesses have begun moving with AI sentiment. The team treats these correlation shifts as arbitrage opportunities: when something is priced as an AI stock but carries different underlying risk, there may be a better entry or exit available elsewhere in the complex.

    0:00 - Introduction: Homer's Odyssey and the AI Trade 1:39 - The Sirens: Memory Stocks, SK Hynix, and Valuation Discipline 7:54 - Managing a Position That Has Grown Beyond Its Cost Base 10:30 - Mega IPOs, Cost of Capital, and Index Inclusion Advantage 15:49 - Scylla vs. Charybdis: Choosing Your Risk in AI 17:58 - AI Portfolio Construction: Numbers, Offsets, and Net Exposure 23:11 - Correlation Creep: When Non-AI Stocks Start Acting Like AI 24:42 - The Cyclops Story: Humility, Diversification, and Process 26:53 - Closing: Managing Money Across Generations 27:15 - Outro and Subscribe Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Paul Moroz, CFA, Global Equity Portfolio Manager

    This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

    Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

    Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

    28 min
  • Looking Under the Hood: Canadian Equity Concentration and Diversification | EP 218

    Canada's stock market has set repeated record highs in 2026, even as the domestic economy feels soft. Canadian equity portfolio manager Mark Rutherford explains the gap between the two, and why a large weight in financials can represent more diversification rather than less. He walks through how the team rotated within the sector as the banks re-rated, and the discipline behind trimming a gold position that had run. As indexes themselves have grown more concentrated, the conversation lands on a simple idea: knowing what you own matters more than ever.

    Key takeaways

    • The Canadian market and the Canadian economy can tell very different stories. Commodities and financials drive a large share of corporate earnings even though relatively few people work in those sectors, which helps explain record markets alongside near-zero real growth.

    • A large weight in financials is not a single bet. Beneath the label sit banks, life, property and casualty insurers, alternative asset managers, and exchanges, each with its own return drivers and correlations.

    • Position weights reflect what has worked, but they are not fixed. As the banks re-rated from roughly 10 to 12 times earnings toward 15 to 16 times, the team recycled capital into property and casualty insurers and alternative asset managers offering more attractive returns.

    • Gold earns its place through company economics, not a price forecast. Royalty businesses and selected miners were added for their free cash flow and differentiated correlation, then trimmed as the combined weight grew and the rate and inflation backdrop shifted.

    • Trimming winners is as much a part of the discipline as finding them. Allowing any single position or exposure to grow unchecked introduces risk that has nothing to do with the original thesis.

    • Indexes have become increasingly concentrated vehicles. Knowing what you own, and holding exposures by deliberate choice rather than by default, can be key to real diversification.

    Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Mark Rutherford, CFA Portfolio Manager

    This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

    Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

    Visit us at:

    https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment

    https://www.mawer.com

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

    https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

    #ArtOfBoring #MawerInvestmentManagement #MawerInvestment #Podcasts

    18 min
  • Balanced Portfolios: A Market Tug of War and the Discipline to Stay Neutral | EP 217
    In this episode, portfolio manager Steven Visscher covers how Mawer's balanced portfolios navigated 2025 and how they are positioned in 2026. With a war-driven energy shock on one side and an AI investment boom on the other, the market is pulling in two directions at once. Steven walks through what that means for asset mix, where the team is seeing signs of investor complacency, and why cracks in private credit could soon create a meaningful opportunity. Key Takeaways:
    • Two forces are competing for market direction in 2026: a war-driven energy shock from the conflict in Iran pushing inflation and rates higher, and a broadening AI investment boom driving strong earnings momentum across the global economy.
    • AI capital investment has expanded well beyond the hyperscalers to include memory, storage, cooling, data centres, and electrical grid infrastructure, with more than 80% of S&P 500 Q1 reporters beating earnings expectations.
    • Current positioning remains close to neutral at 60% equity, with a continued underweight to U.S. equities in favour of international and emerging markets. Valuations, interest rates, and investor psychology all support staying close to that neutral stance.
    • Cracks in private credit are emerging through rising defaults and client redemption gating. The team is building global credit exposure gradually and is prepared to deploy capital more aggressively when a dislocation occurs.
    • In an environment of competing forces and mixed signals, staying diversified, maintaining valuation discipline, and building portfolios that can withstand multiple scenarios remains the priority.

    Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager

    Guest: Steven Visscher, CFA Investment Counsellor

    This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

    Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

    Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

    Follow us on social:

    LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

    Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

    20 min
  • U.S. Mid-Cap: The Physical Economy Comeback, Capital Intensity, and Portfolio Positioning | EP 216

    In this episode, Jeff Mo, U.S. mid-cap portfolio manager, explores a fundamental shift in how economies may grow over the next decade. He makes the case that after 25 years of intangible, internet-driven expansion, growth may increasingly depend on building physical things again: data centers, electrical infrastructure, factories, defense systems, satellites. Jeff walks through the forces driving this transition, from AI's voracious appetite for capital to geopolitical tensions reshaping supply chains and defense spending. The conversation examines how these macro themes connect to bottom-up stock selection, where the U.S. mid-cap team is finding opportunities today, and why maintaining inherent contradictions in the portfolio remains essential even as thematic investing dominates market behavior. • Why producing one unit of GDP today requires about a third as much oil as in the 1970s, yet capital expenditure per unit of GDP growth may be rising as the economy shifts from intangible services back toward physical infrastructure and manufacturing.

    • How AI data center buildouts, reshoring of manufacturing, rising defense budgets, and the expanding space economy are all driving higher demand for physical capital, commodities, and industrial capacity after a decade of underinvestment.

    • How the hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) are moving from massive net cash positions to net debt as they fund AI infrastructure, tightening capital availability for the rest of the economy and potentially raising interest rates and dampening consumer spending.

    • Where the U.S. mid-cap team is finding opportunities aligned with these themes, from companies like Northrop Grumman, SanDisk, and OSI Systems, while maintaining portfolio balance through inherent contradictions.

    • Why humility matters most when contemplating big-picture themes: the goal isn't predicting the future but building a diversified portfolio of wealth-creating companies that can withstand multiple scenarios.

    [00:00] Introduction: From Intangible to Physical Economy

    [00:50] Opening Discussion with Jeff Moe

    [01:42] Oil Efficiency vs. Rising CapEx Requirements

    [03:39] Economic Growth: Labor, Capital, and Productivity

    [04:11] Infrastructure Investment and Reshoring Trends

    [06:52] Defense Spending and Capital Intensity

    [07:08] The Space Economy: Satellites and Connectivity

    [11:00] Memory Market Dynamics and Contract Changes

    [12:22] Cyclicality in a Capital-Intensive Economy

    [15:04] Consumption vs. Investment: Portfolio Implications

    [17:44] Connecting Themes to Bottom-Up Research

    [18:44] Idea Generation and Stock Selection Process

    [21:32] Winners and Losers: The Bits to Atoms Trade

    [22:00] Portfolio Construction: Inherent Contradictions

    [25:21] Where the Theme Might Be Wrong

    [26:09] Long-Term Wealth Creation and Economic Optimism

    [28:18] Closing and Subscription Information

    Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager

    Guest: Jeff Mo, CFA Portfolio Manager

    This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

    Visit us at:

    https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

    Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

    #ArtOfBoring #MawerInvestmentManagement #MawerInvestment #Podcasts #capitalmarkets #geopoliticalinvesting #commodityMarkets #capitalexpenditure #physicalEconomy #GDPGrowth

    29 min
  • International Equity: Finding Quality Opportunities in Today's Market | EP.215

    In this episode, Peter Lampert, international equity portfolio manager, examines the Middle East conflict and its implications for global markets. He walks through the portfolio's diversification strategy, explains the team's nearly 40-year history with Shell, and explores how a changing market backdrop has challenged traditional definitions of quality and why forward-looking analysis may matter more than historical patterns.

    • How the Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz blockade are affecting oil and LNG flows, and why equity markets have largely looked through the disruption so far.
    • The portfolio's diversification strategy, balancing energy importers like TSMC with energy producers like Shell to create resilience across different scenarios.
    • Why the team exited Shell in 2015 during the commodity boom, and what changed to make it attractive again when they reinitiated the position in 2022.
    • How the traditional quality factor has underperformed over the last five years as interest rates and commodity prices rose, rotating investor interest away from high-quality growth companies.
    • Why forward-looking analysis is critical—finding wealth-creating companies that don't fit the conventional quality mold, like European defense companies and Korean memory producers benefiting from AI demand.

    0:00 Introduction & Episode Overview 0:27 Disclaimer 0:44 Middle East Conflict and Market Implications 1:13 Strait of Hormuz Blockade and Energy Disruption 2:10 Key Risks: Oil, LNG, and Infrastructure Damage 3:30 Portfolio Positioning and Energy Exposure 4:39 Case Study: How TSMC Manages Energy Risk 6:42 Portfolio Diversification Strategy 7:27 Balancing Energy Importers and Producers 8:37 Shell: A 40-Year Investment History 10:35 Quality Factor Underperformance 11:00 Redefining Quality in Changing Markets 14:41 Final Thoughts: Long-Term Perspective 15:19 Closing Remarks and Subscribe

    Host Info:

    Rob Campbell, CFA

    Institutional Portfolio Manager

    Peter Lampert, CFA

    Portfolio Manager

    Visit us at:

    https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment

    https://www.mawer.com

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

    https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

    #ArtOfBoring #MawerInvestmentManagement #Podcasts #BeBoringMakeMoney

    17 min
  • Global Credit: Energy Shocks, AI Borrowing, and Signs of Stress | EP 214

    In this episode, Brian Carney, lead portfolio manager of the Mawer Global Credit Opportunities Strategy, examines a fixed income backdrop reshaped by geopolitical escalation, an energy shock, and sharply changing interest-rate expectations. He explains why higher benchmark yields and modestly wider spreads still leave many parts of credit looking expensive, where Mawer is finding more selective value through bottom-up research, and why the strategy remains tilted toward shorter-duration, higher-quality credit. The conversation also explores AI-related bond issuance from hyperscalers, signs of strain in leveraged finance and private credit, and what a more fragile lending environment could mean for investors. Highlights:

    • How geopolitical escalation and higher oil prices have pushed inflation concerns back to the forefront and reshaped rate expectations in major markets.
    • Why higher benchmark yields have not been enough to make much of longer-duration or lower-quality credit compelling today.
    • A look at two selective opportunities: CoreWeave, tied to AI infrastructure, and a fallen angel with potential catalysts and downside protection.
    • How AI is being used inside Mawer's research process to sort through a vast global credit universe and surface new ideas.
    • Why massive borrowing by hyperscalers to fund AI CapEx could pressure investment-grade spreads over the next 12 to 18 months.
    • Early signs of stress in leveraged loans and private credit, and why Brian sees growing evidence of "decay" in parts of the lending market.

    Chapters: [0:00] Introduction [0:32] Disclaimer [0:49] Welcome and Guest Introduction [0:54] Macro Environment Shifts: Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Shocks [1:44] Impact on Global Credit Markets and Central Bank Expectations [4:32] Where to Find Value in Credit Markets Today [6:47] Portfolio Positioning: Defensive Stance Explained [7:18] Credit Opportunity #1: CoreWeave and the AI Revolution [8:35] Credit Opportunity #2: A Fallen Angel Opportunity [9:49] Using AI Technology in Credit Research [10:59] Hyperscaler Bond Issuance: The New Market Dynamic [13:47] Impact of Tech Giants Crowding the Investment Grade Market [14:56] Private Credit Risks and Bank Syndication Challenges [16:53] Signs of Decay in Private Credit Markets [20:42] Closing Thoughts: Positioning for Opportunity [21:16] Outro Host: Kevin Minas, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Brian Carney, CFA Portfolio Manager

    This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

    Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

    Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

    Follow us on social:

    LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

    Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

    22 min
  • Quarterly Update | Q1 2026 | EP 213

    In this episode, Institutional Portfolio Manager Kevin Minas and Investment Counsellor Stu Morrow examine the forces shaping markets in the first quarter of 2026. From the escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on oil, inflation, and growth to the broadening AI disruption across software and asset-light business models, they explore how investors can stay thoughtful in an increasingly complex environment. The conversation covers stagflation risks, bond market dynamics, the role of gold as a hedge, and the portfolio adjustments being made as quality businesses face new tests of durability in a changing world order.

    Key Highlights:

    • Middle East conflict and stagflation risks: The escalation in Iran has dominated Q1, with the Strait of Hormuz carrying a fifth of daily global oil and gas consumption. Beyond energy, the conflict threatens fertilizer supplies, semiconductor inputs, and global growth—raising the specter of stagflation as slowing growth meets rising inflation, limiting central banks' ability to cut rates.

    • Equity market performance beneath the surface: While headline quarterly returns appeared calm, significant sector and regional divergence emerged. Energy outperformed (benefiting Canada and developed international markets), while U.S. mega-cap tech and software faced scrutiny over AI CapEx spending and disruption risks.

    • Bond markets challenged in inflationary environment: Central banks stayed on the sidelines in Q1, balancing inflation concerns against growth risks. Yields rose across the curve, with bonds selling off alongside equities and challenging their traditional safe-haven role. Diversification within fixed income—including global credit with higher yield and lower duration—remains critical for navigating different market regimes.

    • AI disruption broadening beyond software: The AI "loser" narrative expanded from software providers to consultants, insurance brokers, wealth managers, and other asset-light business models. Markets are pricing in disintermediation risk even where fundamentals haven't deteriorated, with stocks treated as "guilty until proven innocent" based on concerns about future cash flows.

    • Discipline through uncertainty: Despite multiple potential outcomes from geopolitical and market disruptions, Mawer's investment process remains focused on competitive advantages, durable returns on capital, and disciplined management. The playbook has been updated through broad diversification and careful position sizing—emphasizing that a quality approach carries investors through periods of heightened complexity.

    Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Stu Morrow, CFA Investment Counsellor

    This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

    Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

    Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

    Follow us on social:

    LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

    Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

    26 min
  • Global Equity: When the Voting Machine Overwhelms the Weighing Machine | EP 212

    In this episode, global equity portfolio manager Paul Moroz examines how investors can navigate a market increasingly shaped by conflict, shifting narratives, and wider ranges of possible outcomes. He begins with the recent escalation in the Middle East and the market's relatively measured response, then considers the second-order effects that can matter just as much as the initial shock. The conversation also explores how recent AI-driven swings in software have revealed a market increasingly influenced by thematic flows and short-term sentiment, rather than the more measured process of weighing business fundamentals. Throughout, Paul returns to a central idea: good portfolio management is rarely about one big call, but about making many small, disciplined decisions within a diversified portfolio.

    Highlights:

    • Why the market's reaction to the recent escalation in the Middle East has remained relatively measured so far
    • John Deere as a second-order effects case study: how rising oil and fertilizer costs can affect customer economics, margins, and capital allocation
    • Thematic trading and the gap between price and intrinsic value: the Centrini AI thought piece in February triggered a broad software sell-off, showing how quickly disruption narratives—not fundamentals—can dominate market pricing
    • Capital intensity isn't the enemy—poor returns are. Microsoft and Amazon are pouring billions into AI infrastructure, but a key question is whether bundling compute with distribution advantages will deliver attractive returns on that capital.
    • Why Paul believes the market's "voting machine" is increasingly overwhelming the "weighing machine." Markets vote on sentiment every day but building real businesses (and real wealth) takes years of focusing on fundamentals while tuning out the noise.

    Host:

    Rob Campbell, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager

    Guest:

    Paul Moroz, CFA Portfolio Manager

    This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

    Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

    Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

    Follow us on social:

    LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

    Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

    25 min

About Art of Boring

From the publisher's feed

Listen as Mawer Investment Management Ltd. takes a deeper dive into the investment philosophy and strategies that have helped put the odds in their clients' favour for over 50 years.

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